The 107th PGA Championship, Preview/Predictions

Justin Thomas goes for Major number 3 with a third Wanamaker Trophy in his sights. He won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017. (Photo courtesy of ESPN).



Historic Quail Hollow in Charlotte will host the 107th edition of the PGA Championship starting Thursday. The defending champion is Xander Schauffele, who outlasted Bryson DeChambeau by a shot at Valhalla in Louisville in May, 2024. DeChambeau was undaunted though as he went on to win the 124th U.S. Open at Pinehurst No.2 in June, 2024. Then Schauffele finished off the major season with his victory at the 152nd Open Championship played at Royal Troon, Scotland in July, 2024. Scottie Scheffler had already won the 88th Masters in April, 2024. All three of these superstars will be competing along with the likes of Masters and now Career Grand Slam champion and hottest player on the planet Rory McIlory, who’s already won 3 times this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach in February, the coveted Players Championship in March, and at the 89th Masters Tournament. It’s been a spectacular run by Rory, and he seems to be as loose as ever with the career Grand Slam now in his possession, so he can just cut loose and hit it 340 and rely on his short game with his putter being vastly improved. He’s 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Rory has won the now Truist Championship at Quail Hollow four times, so you’d think he’d be unbeatable this weekend. Justin Thomas, the 2017 champion at Quail Hollow and the 2022 PGA Championship champion at Southern Hills in Tulsa, is a favorite as well. Justin got over the hump by winning for the first time in three years at the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, a Signature Event on Tour, the week after the Masters with some spectacular putting. JT looks to have his putting stroke back.

There has been a ton of rain at Quail Hollow in the past week, so the course will be soft and long. It’s long enough to begin with at 7,626 yards and playing as a par 71. Golf Channel host Paul McGinley commented on Live From the PGA Championship that the course is plush and the fairways are as nice as Augusta National. Jon Rahm commented in his press conference on Tuesday that the greens, despite the rain, are still firm and fast. PGA Tour.com writer Rob Bolton says the rough will be 4 inches high and the greens will be stimping 13 on the TiffEagle Bermuda grass greens. So the challenge will be driving distance, driving accuracy, proximity to hole, and chipping and putting.

There are 156 players competing. Here are details.

Key Tee Times (all times Central)

No.1 Thursday/No.10 Friday in order.

11:52 A.M./6:22 A.M.-Lucas Glover, Max Homa, Joaquin Niemann

12:03 P.M./6:33 A.M.-Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Adam Scott

12:14 P.M./6:44 A.M.-Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Collin Morikawa

12:25 P.M./6:55 A.M.-Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Ludvig Aberg

12:36 P.M./7:06 A.M.-Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim

12:58 P.M./7:28 A.M.-Sergio Garcia, Daniel Berger, Russell Henley

1:09 P.M./7:39 A.M.-Justin Rose, Cameron Smith, Brian Harmon

Players going off at No.10 Thursday and No.1 Friday

6:38 A.M./12:03 P.M.-Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry

6:49 A.M./12:14 P.M.-Phil Mickelson, Tommy Fleetwood, Jason Day

7 A.M./12:25 P.M.-Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Matt Fitzpatrick

7:11 A.M./12:36 P.M.-Corey Conners, Min Woo Lee, Rasmus Hojgaard

7:22 A.M./12:47 P.M.- Rory, Xander, Scottie-No’s 1, 2, and 3 in the world: 1. Scottie, 2. Rory, 3. Xander

7:44 A.M./1:09 P.M.-Andrew Novak, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNeely

Key Odds

Scheffler, 4/1, Rory, 4/1, Bryson, 7/1, Rahm, 18/1, Xander, 20/1, JT, 20/1, Morikawa, 22/1, Aberg, 22/1, Niemann, 33/1, Fleetwood, 33/1, Hatton, 45/1, Koepka, 40/1, Hideki, 40/1, Cantlay, 40/1, Vik Hovland, 50/1, Spieth, 55/1, Shane Lowry, 55/1, Sepp Straka, 55/1, Henley, 66/1, Corey Conners, 70/1, Jason Day, 80/1, Wyndham Clark, 110/1, Daniel Berger, 100/1. Justin Rose, 110/1. Tony Finau, 110/1, Min Woo Lee, 90/1. Sungjae Im, 100/1.

Weather

Thursday-87, Partly cloudy, SW 10 MPH.

Friday, 89, Partly Cloudy, SW 8.

Saturday, 84, Partly Cloudy, WSW 13.

Sunday, 86, Mostly Cloudy, WSW 10. Should be OK with not high chances for rain any of the four days.

TV-All times Central

Thursday-Friday, 6-11 A.M., ESPN+; 11 A.M.-6 P.M. ESPN

Saturday-Sunday, 7-9 A.M., ESPN+; 9 A.M.-12 P.M. ESPN; 12-6 P.M., CBS/Paramount.

Can the powerful DeChambeau use his length off the tee as a major advantage? Of course, he’ll have Rory to contend with in that aspect. (Photo courtesy of Youtube).

A lot of terrific storylines. Can Rory win for the fifth time at Quail Hollow and continue “matriculating” in his pursuit of the calendar year Grand Slam? Can the LIV Tour players capture another major victory after DeChambeau did it at the U.S. Open last year? Will one of the opposing Ryder Cup players win at Quail Hollow? The Green Mile, 16, 17 and 18 will pose an intimidating test of golf. No. 16 is a 529 yard, par 4 with water on the left on the player’s approach. No.17 is a 223, par 3. There is water in front and long and left. No.18 is a classic 494 yard par 4 with water running down the entire left side. Makes for a stellar finish.

Winner

Some people might say statistics are for losers, while others, like two-time New York Giants’ Super Bowl winning coach Bill Parcells (1986, 1990), would say, “The numbers don’t lie.” I side with Coach Parcells’ philosophy. This 28 year old, born in New Jersey and now residing in Dallas, is No.1 in Strokes Gained:Total, No.1 in Strokes Gained:Approach, No.1 in Scrambling, No. 1 in Proximity to hole, how close you hit your approaches to the pin, tied for fourth in birdie average, and No.19 in Strokes Gained: Putting. I know his putter hasn’t always cooperated for him in the past three years, but his 31 under par at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Dallas a couple of weeks ago was a record tying 72 hole score on the PGA Tour with Hideki Matsuyama, who achieved that milestone at the Sentry in Maui this past January. So give me the Texan to win his third major and exhibit his No.1 in the world playing acumen.

Scottie Scheffler

Like Scheffler at Quail Hollow in the 107th PGA Championship. (Photo courtesy of CNN).

Darkhorse

I’ll take the 33 year old from Chattanooga by way of the University of Georgia.

Keith Mitchell

10 Responses

  1. Really love your picks. Keith Mitchell has really been hanging around a lot in tournaments. This tournament will require a player with great distance and experience . Good choice with Scheffler.

  2. I agree with both of your picks but I am going with sime longer odds in DeChambeau. My longshot is from Chattanooga at least in high school as well. Stephen Jaeger. Hit em straight DW.

  3. Thanks for the preview and analysis, DW! Scheffler is a great pick! McIlroy has the potential to be a factor this week. He has performed well at Quail Hollow in the past, and holds the course record (shot a 61 back in 2015).

  4. Rory seems to have this track figured out and I see no reason to doubt him. My long shot is Tyrrell “ Happy” Hatton. Scottie is always a great choice and will no doubt be teeing off late on Sunday.

  5. Good point, Bill! McIlroy is a factor. I know he won the Masters, but I still question his mental toughness at times. He almost gagged at Augusta And the Players. Thanks, Jeff Bezos Bates!

  6. Thanks, WP. Don’t trust him as much in majors as some other people do even though he’s got a good record at Quail Hollow.

  7. I like Scottie to win it all. So I love your pick. It is great that so many of the top guys are playing well. I am not a huge fan of this course and it’s clear Rory is. Would love to see Spieth get the Grand Slam but not likely. Dark Horse Jason Day.

  8. DW: As always a great write up to get us going. We saw Xander win last July at Royal Troon. Hoping he does well here. Pulling for JT or Spieth. Scottie is a great pick. Looking forward to it all. War Eagle ⛳️

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