No.1 Indiana vs. No. 10 Miami for the National Championship; Preview/Prediction. NFL Divisional Round Recap

Two excellent football minds compete in the National Championship against one another at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami as Curt Cignetti (left) takes on Mario Cristobal. (Photo courtesy of NBC News).

Two powerful football teams square off tonight for the National Championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. as the seemingly unbeatable No.1 Indiana Hoosiers take on the hard-nosed, athletic No. 10 Miami Hurricanes. Which team will emerge victorious in the game and capture the coveted and legacy making national championship trophy?

Indiana has been an unstoppable force all season and goes for the first ever 16-0 record in college football history. They plowed through the regular season with a few scares at Iowa and Penn State, and a hard fought regular season victory over Oregon and a battle with Ohio State, the latter happening in the Big Ten Championship Game, as the Hoosiers defeated the Buckeyes 13-10. Then in the Playoff, the Hoosiers dominated the Crimson Tide, 38-3, with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza completing 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and 3 TDs against 0 ints. In the semifinals, Indiana dominated Oregon, which they had defeated in the regular season, 30-20, at Eugene, by a score of 56-22 in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The game was no contest as Mendoza completed 17 of 20 for 177 with 5 TDs against 0 ints in the shellacking. Mendoza has thrown 8 TDs in the Playoff to only five Incompletions. And no interceptions, of course. Head spinning stuff. Mendoza has an awesome offensive line in front of him and terrific skilled players around him. Running back Roman Hemby has rushed for 1,060 yards and 7 TDs. RB Kaelon Black has added 961 and 10 TDs, RB Khobie Martin has rushed for 505 yards and 6 TDs. And Mendoza has rushed for 284 and 6, sixes. For the season, Mendoza has completed 257 of 352, 73%, for 3,349 yards, 41 TDs to 6 ints. His receiving cast of Omar Cooper Jr. (64-866, 13 TDs), Elijah Sarratt (62-802, 15 TDs), Charlie Becker (30-614-4) and E.J. Williams Jr. (36-438, 6) is superb. The defense is the No.2 scoring defense in the country allowing 11.07 points per game. The Hoosiers also lead the country in turnover margin at +21. In his last five games, Mendoza has thrown 15 TDs against only 1 int. They’re a load.

For Miami, Carson Beck, his skilled players and that terrific defensive front 7 will have to play at an extremely high level in order to win this football game. In his last five games, Beck has thrown for 11 TDs to only 2 ints. Against Texas A&M, in the Hurricanes first round playoff game @College Station, Beck completed 14-of-20 for 103 yards with a TD and an int in a 10-3 Canes’ victory. In the quarters against Ohio State at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Beck completed 19-of-26 for 138, with one TD and 0 ints in a 24-14 Canes’ victory. And against Ole Miss in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl Semifinal game, Beck played well, going 23-of-37 for 268 with 2 TDs against 1 int, which included the game winning 3 yard TD run in which he galloped into the end zone to lead the Canes to the 31-27 victory. It was thrilling to watch even though White’s World had predicted Ole Miss to win. In the Canes game winning drive that started with two and half minutes left, Beck completed passes of 17, on a crucial 3rd and 10 at the Ole Miss 35 with 45 seconds left to get the ball to the Ole Miss 18. Then on 2nd and 11 at the Ole Miss 19, Beck completed an 11 yard pass to get the ball to the Ole Miss 8 with 31 seconds left. Two plays later, he ran it in from the 3 with 18 seconds left to put the Canes up 31-27. They held off a final 35 yard pass from Trinidad Chambliss to the end zone to claim the victory. For the season, Beck completed 319-of-435, 73%, for 3,561 yards, with 29 TDs against 11 ints. Running back Mark Fletcher rushed for 1,080 yards and 10 TDs, and Malachi Toney, the freshman phenom wide receiver, caught 99 passes for 1,089 yards and 9 TDs. Wide receiver Keylan Marion caught 56 for 740 with 2 TDs. And WR C.J. Daniels caught 46 for 495 and 7 TDs. The Miami offensive front is stout and the defensive front, led by Akheem Mesidor (10 1/2 sacks, -64 yards) and Rueben Bain Jr. (8 1/2, -49 yards), is highly formidable. Miami has 16 ints on the season on D, and is 12th in the country in turnover margin at +11. Indiana is second in the country in rushing defense and Miami is 6th. Indiana allows just 75 yards rushing and Miami allows 85 yards. Miami is 5th in the country in scoring defense at 14 ppg. One glaring difference is in the penalty numbers. Indiana is 10th in the country, having committed 55 penalties for 403 yards, while Miami is tied for 130th, having committed 105 for 856 yards.

Below are the details of the game and the prediction after I give you a recap of the NFL Divisional Games, which were spectacular, for the most part. Also, a look ahead to the NFC and AFC Championship Games this Sunday.

NFL Divisional Round Games Recaps

The four NFL Divisional games were amazing over the weekend, for the most part, with Denver outlasting the Buffalo Bills, 33-30, in overtime, and Seattle destroying the 49ers, 41-6. Both of those games were played on Saturday. On Sunday, the Patriots blasted the Texans, 28-16, in a game in which the Texans self destructed on offense despite an awesome performance by defensive end Will Anderson Jr. And the Rams defeated the magician, Caleb Williams, and the Bears, 20-17, in overtime at Soldier Field. Three out of the four home teams won in the Divisional Round with the exception being the Bears, even though Williams threw a miraculous 14 yard TD pass to Cole Kmet with 18 seconds left in regulation in which Williams ran backwards 20 yards, then darted away from the pass rush and heaved it into the end zone for a miracle touchdown, which tied the game at 17. The Rams intercepted Willams in overtime on the Bears second possession and the great Matthew Stafford, who should be the MVP of the league this season, led the Rams to the game winning field goal for a 20-17 Rams victory. Denver had a terrific Saturday afternoon at Mile High until they found out after the game that quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle and is out for the rest of the postseason. Former Baylor and Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham will get the start on Sunday versus the Patriots. Nix, as most of you know, played at Auburn before finishing his college career at Oregon. Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in the NFL since 2023. The Patriots are a 5 1/2 point favorite over the Broncos in Denver, and the tenacious Seahawks are a 2 1/2 point favorite over the Rams in Seattle. New England @ Denver is the first game this Sunday, 1/25/26, at 2 P.M. CT on CBS, while the Rams @ Seattle play at 5:30 P.M. on FOX right after that. Should be electric.

Will have those previews/predictions on Thursday. Unfortunately for Buffalo coach Sean McDermott, he was fired this morning by the Bills. He was solid, but could never get his team to the Super Bowl in 9 seasons at the helm with a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen. So many missed opportunities. Allen should take some of the blame, too. McDermott could be a candidate for other NFL openings. Certainly a fine coach, but has made some questionable in game decisions that have cost his teams key victories throughout his tenure. The other question is, can any coach get Josh Allen to lead his team to a Lombardi Trophy? Allen has missed out on a lot of chances in his 8 seasons in the league, all at Buffalo. Not all his fault, but he has to take some of the blame.

Back to College Football

Record in Bowl games/Playoff Games through the semifinals and Overall record for 2025:

Straight Up: 12-8; Overall: 173-58, 75%; ATS: 12-8; 108-123, 47%; Over/Under: 14-6; 122-109, 53%.

Tonight

No.10 Miami (13-2) vs. No.1 Ole Miss (15-0)

The National Championship, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, 75,000

6:30 CT

ESPN

Chris, Kirk, Holly, Molly

Yella: Michael VanderVelde, Big 12

Hoosiers by 7 1/2, 46 1/2

I like both of these teams very much, but the Hoosiers seem to be a team of destiny. What Curt Cignetti has done in two years at Indiana would make for a riveting non-fiction book and a captivating movie, based on a true story, which he said himself after the Rose Bowl victory. He’s confident to the point of arrogance, but he has backed it up so far. I like Mario Cristobal and Miami, and the game is at their home stadium, so that has to help the cause. But these Hoosiers fans travel, and they’ll probably fill up at least half of Hard Rock. I would pick it closer because Miami is high quality, but there isn’t a team that can stop this indomitable force that is Indiana.

Indiana 31, Miami 17

MVP: Fernando Mendoza

11 Responses

  1. Thanks for the preview and NFL game recaps, DW! Like your pick for tonight’s game! It should be a dandy matchup.

  2. I agree with you 100% DW. Indiana seems unstoppable. Should be a great game. I like the over as well so I hope I don’t hex you.

  3. Thanks for the analysis and Indiana pick. I think they will win too but afraid to wager on it.

    I don’t know about you guys but every NFL team I was pulling for in the playoffs is out.

    With the SEC out of contention for the 3rd consecutive year and my favorite Bama players out of the playoffs, I’m especially happy to see the Ausie Open beginning.

    Go Hoosiers!

  4. DW, I am still sore from the Alabama throttling. You have been spot on so many times in your predictions and correct here on Indiana. Two good coaches and experienced teams. Should be a great game. WT

  5. Your write up is unreal. Great, great information. I’ve always suspected a close game. But, lots can happen. Great coach story between the two of them.

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