Crimson Tide falls, Elite Eight predictions

Clark Kellogg of CBS talks about “frees and threes” as key components to winning basketball games. Last night at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indy, UCLA sank more threes and a lot more frees in their 88-78 overtime victory over the Crimson Tide..

The Bruins were 10-of-29 from trifecta, 34.5%, and 20-of-25 from the charity stripe, 80%. Alabama was 7-of-28 from triple country, 25%, and just 11-pf-25 from the line, 44%. The missed free throws were the major difference in the game though UCLA sank big shot after big shot when it counted most. The Tide had hope when Alex Reese sank a miraculous 35 foot 3 at the buzzer to send the game into overtime, but UCLA took over in the overtime.

UCLA, 21-9 and an 11 seed, now faces No.1 seed Michigan in the Elite 8 of the West Regional. The Crimson Tide finishes its season at 26-7. It was a terrific season for the Tide as the team won the SEC regular season and the SEC Tournament Championship and looked like it could make the Final Four. The team made a courageous comeback in the second half rebounding from a double digit deficit at halftime and had the lead several times in the second half. But,at some point, you’ve gotta give the Bruins credit. They just made big shot after big shot and sank their free throws, while Alabama struggled mightily from the stripe. The Tide compiled an excellent season and has a lot to look forward to, though it is losing several players off of this year’s team. Recruiting has gone well for the 2021 class with the 17th ranked class in the country according to 247 sports with a 5 star and 2, 4 stars, so the team will be in the thick of the SEC race next season and a contender for years to come under Nate Oats. Auburn should be back in the hunt next year as well. For some teams, this season was a lost season and they get a mulligan next year. Powerhouses Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina and Michigan State would like to forget the 2020-21 season and you could put Auburn in that category. But I like Pearly to get the Tigers back in contention next season for the SEC title and the tournament if he doesn’t get in trouble with the NCAA in the meantime.

Sweet 16 record: 5-3

Elite Eight predictions

All 4 games at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy

Tonight

Midwest Region

No.12 seed Oregon State (20-12) vs. No.2 Houston (27-3)

6:15 CT

CBS

Houston by 8

Oregon State was impressive in handling Loyola-Chicago, 65-58, Saturday. Houston was just as impressive in defeating Syracuse, 62-48. I’ll take the slightly more athletic Cougars to advance to the Final Four on Saturday.

Houston 68, Oregon State 59

South Region

No.3 Arkansas (25-6) vs. No.1 Baylor (25-2)

8:57 PM CT

CBS

Baylor by 7 1/2

Arkansas survived a tough Oral Roberts team, 72-70, avoiding the upset on a barely missed three by OR at the buzzer. They now face the talented Bears, which disposed of Villanova, 62-51. I like the Bears to continue their superb play this season.

Baylor 75, Arkansas 65

Tuesday

West Region

No.6 USC (25-7) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (29-0)

6:15 PM CT

TBS

Zags by 9

The undefeated Zags destroyed Creighton, 83-65, while the very impressive Trojans defeated Oregon, 82-68. I’m going to take the upset here. These PAC-12 Conference teams are for real.

USC 78, Gonzaga 76

East Region

No.11 UCLA (21-9) vs. No.1 Michigan (23-4)

8:57 PM CT

TBS

Michigan by 7

I’ll take another PAC-12 team in an upset.

UCLA 71, Michigan 69

11 Responses

  1. Tough loss for Bama. I think Herb Jones kind of checked out the last 2 games. Out of his last 20 3 point shots he made zero. Gutsy call making the upset pick over Gonzaga because to me Gonzaga looks like the team to beat. Michigan looked better than I thought and FSU stunk it up as bad as Bama. Thanks for the read.

  2. Great coverage DW! The Tide fell a little short last night and missed some opportunities but, I really like the direction and future of the basketball program. Anything can happen with these Elite 8 games and I look forward to watching them.

  3. Hey David! First full hoops game for the Tide this season I watched last night, so I guess I jinxed ’em. Was thinking it’d be pretty cool if the Tide won football and basketball in the same year. Anyway, I don’t watch a ton of basketball, but I cannot remember seeing a game of any kind worthy of being on television where the free-throw shooting was that awful. It seemed like a practical joke or something…just horrific.

    Also occurs to me that if you have terrific success w/ 3-pointers like Alabama did this season, that’s great and all…but what if you struggle and miss a lot of them in a particularly critical game??

  4. Yes, well, Fredrick, they say you can live by the 3 and die by the 3. Alabama shoots a high volume, that’s just who they are under Nate Oats and they’ve had a lot of success with it, though it makes it tough to win when you aren’t sinking them. The free throw line was even more costly. But a super season for the team nonetheless. People forget that winning the SEC regular season and the SEC Tournament are major accomplishments, I guess because people emphasize the NCAA Tournament so much, people forget about those things, but they shouldn’t. Only 1 team wins it all, that means the other 67 teams are disappointed, and that 352 of them are disappointed. It’s hard to win it all, so what the Tide did is a tremendous accomplishment in the grand scheme of things. People need to remember the big picture and the future that is in store for this team. It’s been since 2004 since the program got this far when they went to the Elite 8 then. So a lot to be excited about if you’re a Crimson Tide hoops fan. Thanks for checkin in.

  5. Disappointing game for the Tide and in addition to poor shooting from the line and field, their ball movement was not good. Way to much one on one basketball limiting their shot selections. I’m with Bama Golf on your gutsy USC and UCLA upset picks. I just don’t see them having enough against the Zags and Wolverines, but we shall see. I’ve been very impressed with Houston’s ball movement and look forward to seeing if that continues tonight.

  6. Thanks, D. I’ve come to the conclusion, as another friend said, “the PAC-12” is legit.” Gonzaga plays like an NBA team and that works well for the most part, but when they play a really good college team that can match’em athlete per athlete, I’ll take the great college team. UCLA has me believin as well.

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