The 98th PGA Championship begins tomorrow at Baltusrol Golf Club in Springfield, New Jersey, 20 miles outside of NYC. Looks epic.

The lower course of Baltusrol, opened in 1922, was designed by famed golf architect A. W. Tillinghast. The course measures 7,428 yards and plays as a Par 70. The slope is 147. That’s difficult considering anything 135 or over is tough. Phil Mickelson won here in 2005 in the only PGA that’s been played on the Lower Course. The Lower Course has hosted four U.S. Opens, two of them won by Jack Nicklaus, in 1967 and 1980. In 1967, Jack and Arnie were locked up in a duel. Arnie’s Army was out in full force and Nicklaus was feeling the heat from the majorly  Arnie crowd. There were Arnie patrons with signs 20 yards off the fairway that said, “Hit it here Jack.” On the par 5, 18th with a one shot lead, Jack drove the ball left into the rough. He hit a fat eight iron out of the rough, then had a 237 yard shot to reach the green and have a birdie putt which, if he sank it, would most likely win it for him. He pulled out a 1 iron and hit it to 22 feet of the hole. In typical Nicklaus fashion, he sank the putt and won the Open. In 1980, Jack was 40 years old and people were saying he was washed up. He hadn’t won a major in a while. But the phrase “Jack is back” was born at Baltusrol that year. He won in 1980 and went on to win the Masters at age 46 in 1986, and cement his place as the greatest golfer of all time, a distinction he still holds today. Interestingly, in 2005 when Phil pulled out a three wood to hit his second shot on 18, he took his three wood and tapped the plaque that was put on the course at the spot where Jack hit his 1 iron. Phil went on to hit his shot just short of the green and then hit a perfect chip to two feet that he  tapped in to capture his second of five majors. 

TV

Thursday-Friday

TNT: 1-7 PM ET/12-6 PM CT. 

Saturday-Sunday

TNT:11 AM-2 PM ET/10 AM-1 PM CT. 

CBS: 2-7 PM ET/1-6 PM CT. 

Weather

Thursday: 91 high 20% rain, minimal, wind 5-8 MPH

Friday: 83 high, 40% T-storm chance, wind 6-8 MPH

Saturday: 85 high, 20% rain, wind, 5-9 MPH

Sunday: 79 high, 40% chance of t-storms, wind 6-9 MPH.

Defending champion: Jason Day

Key holes:

There are a lot of them. I’ll start with the one that’s straight out of the blocks. 

No.1: 478 yards, Par 4

A long par 4 that off the tee gives the player a landing area between a road on the left side that is out of bounds, and bunkers and water on the right side. Tight driving area. The approach is uphill to a relatively small green that is guarded by bunkers on both sides. Birdie here is a real bonus.

No.3: 503 yards, Par 4

The second toughest hole in 2005. It’s a long downhill dogleg left that is framed by trees on both sides. A creek guards the entrance to the green, and a ridge runs through the green creating sharp breaks on either side of the hole when putting. 

No. 7: 506 yards, Par 4

The toughest hole on the course in 2005. Baltusrol has some massive par 4’s and this is the toughest of the group. The hole bends left to right with an out of bounds fence, a large group of trees and a bunker down the right side. The drive must both be long and accurate for the player to put himself in position to have a good shot at the green. A par here is an excellent score. Birdie is terrific.

No.9: 211 yards, Par 3

There are four par 3’s at Baltusrol and they’re all challenging. This hole features a long green with a narrow opening between two bunkers and a large bunker covering the backside of the green.

No.13: 462 yards, par 4

There is a fairway bunker off the tee that the players will go over for a premium drive on this hole. The approach is to a two level green with bunkers and mounds on both sides. There is a diagonal creek that runs along the entire right side hole. Bobby Jones hit his ball in the creek in the 1926 U.S. Amateur, costing him a shot at winning it. This hole made such an impression on him, that he used it as the model for No.13 at Augusta National.

No.16: 230 yards, par 3

It’s a long iron from the tee box to a sloping green surrounded by bunkers. The green is deceptively difficult, which makes it tough to read putts.

No.17: 649 yards, par 5

The first par 5 on the course, amazingly, and what a hole. Some experts consider it one of the best golf holes in the country. A long accurate drive and a solid second shot are required to cross the bunkers at 400 yards. If the player can keep the ball in the fairway, he has a wedge to the green and a good shot at birdie. It’s possible for guys like Dustin, Rory, Bubba and some others to reach the green in two John Daly was the first player to ever do it in 1993. Daly didn’t have this type of equipment the players have today. That’s impressive. 

No.18: 553 yards, Par 5

The players have to hit extremely accurate drives to reach the green in two. A safe second shot leaves a short pitch to a flat green. But there is water, thick rough and large trees that are pretty penalizing just off the fairway. Should be a classic finishing hole on Sunday. 

Guy who is not going to win

Jason Day

I’ve never heard this many excuses since Hillary’s traitor email debacle. First he caught a cold from Dash, then his wife Ellie goes to the hospital last night till 2 AM, he’s burnt out from all the golf he’s played, and the schedule is just too demanding this year. So I get it, you’re not going to win. I agree.

Contenders

Dustin

 Of course

Henrik

For sure

Zach Johnson

Doesn’t have the massive length that is a real asset on this course, but extremely accurate, excellent with his irons and his short game. That will keep him right in the thick of things come Sunday.

Phil

Shot a 65 on Sunday at Royal Troon, finished -17,  and still lost by three shots to Henrik, who shot a 63, and was -20 putting on a clinic in the process. But Phil’s game is outstanding right now, he’s putting better than ever and he’s in better physical shape than he’s been in his life. Phil looks primed to capture his sixth major.

Winner

Gary McCord of CBS is as goofy as Bill Clinton at a Tea Party gathering, but McCord did say something in CBS’s preview show that was accurate. He liked these first time winners at Majors this year and he says he sees another one at the PGA. First it was Danny Willett at the Masters. I see Willett as a Shaun Micheel, Ben Curtis-like major champion, who is one and done, and while Spieth handed the Masters to him on a silver platter, you’ve got to give him credit for winning at Augusta. Dustin won at the U.S. Open at Oakmont and that was legit, and Henrik was all world great at the Open. 

So I like a first time guy here too. McCord went with Sergio. I’m still not a buyer of Sergio. He seems to wilt in big moments. But I do like a bomber, who has all the tools to get the job done, and capture his first major at 34 years old. He’s won four times on tour, he’s had a solid 2016 campaign, and he finished third at the Open a week and a half ago. Going with the powerhouse from Campbellsville, Kentucky.

J. B. Holmes