Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, FL. 7,419 yards, par 72

Defending champion: Marc Leishman, shot -11 and defeated Charlie Hoffman and Kevin Kisner by a shot.

Last week: Paul Casey shot a final round 65 to grab the victory at the Valspar Championship and hold off rallies by Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods. Woods birdied 17 from 45 feet on a miraculous putt, reminiscent of the 2001 Players Championship putt on 17 at TPC Sawgrass, the “better than most” putt that NBC’s Gary Koch famously called. It was about a 55 footer at Sawgrass and was totally phenomenal. Woods could very well be back at 42. He’s physically powerful and fit right now, hitting it a ton and his putter is outstanding. He could get it done this week and be a major factor in all the majors this year, starting with Augusta National in 3 weeks, April 5th-8th. 

Key hole, No. 18, as usual on these classics courses. It’s a 458 yard, par 4. The tee shot is blind to a pretty wide fairway, but the second shot is where all the fireworks begin. The large, wide green is guarded up front by rocks and a substantial lake that requires a long carry to reach the front, right half of the green where the pin will most likely be on Sunday. There are bunkers on the left for the player who draws it too much and the rocks and water up front challenge the players to be precise with their approach shots. Anything mishit could very well be in the water. There will be massive electricity on this hole with Tiger, Rory, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama and some other major names playing for the late Arnie’s championship.

Weather: Very good, low to high 70’s Thursday and Friday, 83 Saturday, 86 Sunday. Wind Sunday 8 gusting to 15, so will lead to some tough decisions for players on 18 as they decide which club to hit on their approach shots in a theater style setting with massive, excitable crowds. 

TV: All times CT

Thursday-Friday, Golf Channel, 1-5 PM.

Saturday-Sunday, Golf, 11:30 AM-1:30 PM; NBC, 1:30-5 PM.

Prediction

A lot of experts are picking Tiger this week and that’s a good decision. He looks back, unflappable and a force on the course. But I’ll take another guy here. I’ll take the player who finished tied with Tiger for second last week shooting 68 on Sunday. I’ll take the 27 year old from San Antonio, who has been a victor 5 times on tour. Super ball striker and performs well in the clutch.

Patrick Reed

Sleeper

This guy is not a huge sleeper, but not the favorite very much, if ever. The 41 year old from San Diego, now living in Las Vegas, has won 4 times on tour, his last coming in April 2016 at the Valero Texas Open. He finished tied for 2nd at Bay Hill last year, and while he’s not a favorite, he’s in contention quite a bit. I expect him to play well once again this week.

Charley Hoffman