You can’t argue with Nick Saban’s resume. Two national championships, three SEC titles, five Western division titles and a 133-53-1 record as a college head coach (over 70% winning percentage). He runs a first class program that graduates players and sends a lot of players to the NFL. He should have quite a few more going to the NFL this year: Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Mark Barron (maybe), Preston Dial (maybe), Greg McElroy (maybe), Dont’a Hightwower (maybe) and Courtney Upshaw. His record speaks for itself.
But it was pointed out in the News yesterday that Saban is only 10-8 in games decided by seven points or less in his four years in Tuscaloosa. That’s an interesting stat. And in the three losses this year to South Carolina (35-21), LSU (24-21) and Auburn (28-27), it looked like South Carolina and LSU had better game plans and Auburn made the necessary adjustments at halftime to win the games.
The argument I have is it’s difficult and next to impossible to go back to back, particularly with what Alabama faced this year. Not only did they lose nine starters on defense, they played six teams with bye weeks before they played them (South Carolina, LSU and Auburn included.) They had a huge target on their backs. Everybody was going to be prepared to the max to knock off the defending national champions.
But it’s true, Saban and his staff appeared to be outcoached by Spurrier, Les Miles and his staff–though I give more credit to Miles’ staff than him, he just goes for it on fourth down and gets lucky, his coaches make the preparations and the calls– and Chizik, Gus Malzahn and Ted Roof at halftime.
But I think it’ll make Saban that much more determined to come back. He’s got the number two recruiting class in the country behind Texas–which really struggled under Mack Brown this year so I’m not sure they can really coach their four and five star recruits up–according to Rivals, and he’ll probably add a some more four and five stars.
Were Saban, the coaching staff and the players burnt out and kind of cruising off of last year? Possibly. Saban didn’t seem to lose his intensity, but maybe part of him was so satisfied with last year that he let his guard down a little bit.
Mark Ingram was not the same player he was a year ago. His knee must have been bothering him and i just don’t know if he was as hungry as he was last year. Greg McElroy played well most of the season, but the Tide just didn’t run the ball that well. Julio Jones really came on at the end of the season maybe sensing he needed to impress the pro scouts for the NFL draft, but he played like an All-American the last five or six games of the season and really all year.
The offensive line wasn’t the same after the Florida game. The defense couldn’t really rush the passer and the secondary got burned quite a bit. Mark Barron was burnt by T-Zac in the Auburn game when it looked like he could have knocked down that long pass from Cam that turned into a 70-yard td. Barron tore a pectoral muscle in the game so that impacted his play.
But Auburn outcoached Alabama at halftime and then in the second half and LSU and South Carolina out gameplanned and outcoached the Tide coaches as well. Nick Saban needs to get his coaches together and tell them that is not going to happen again next year. He has talent coming back, albeit with a new quarterback, but A.J. McCarron shows potential and S has been high on Phillip Sims, the frosh from Virginia. The line will have everybody back except James Carpenter. A healthy Barrett Jones would have helped in the Auburn game. There seemed to be a lot of injuries this year. Ingram, Trent, Barrett Jones, Hightower really wasn’t himself after the knee injury last year. Julio Jones battled a broken hand and Darius Hanks got hurt in the Auburn game.
It was just one of those years where Murphy’s Law was in effect, there may not have been as much drive in the team and the key opponents had two weeks to prepare and game plan for the Tide.
Saban went 9-3 the year after he won the national title at LSU then he left for Miami. Maybe he’s at Alabama to stay and he’s going to get the Tide back to where they’re used to being. But it’ll be a war with Auburn. AU has built a stellar program in two years under Gene Chizik. Gus Malzahn is a hot commodity as a head coaching candidate, so we’ll see what happens if he takes another job. Auburn has had a spectacular season and there’s two more hurdles in front of them. Get over those and Auburn will be national champions. That may make Nick Saban even more determined for 2011.
On another note, the Chicago Bears are proving the doubters wrong. Lovie Smith, Jay Cutler and offensive coordinator Mike Martz were maligned in the preseason and the early season and Smith and Cutler have been catching it for two years. But yesterday the Bears, Cutler and their stellar defense proved they could be championship material with a 31-26 victory over the almost unstoppable Michael Vick and his Eagles team. The Bears did enough to stop Vick and came up with a key interception late in the second quarter when Vick and company were driving. The Eagles were on the Bears seven late in the second quarter down 14-13 and ready to seize the momentum. Vick went back to pass and defensive tackle Tommie Harris tipped his pass and Chris Harris picked it off in the end zone and returned it 39 yards to the Bears 37. Cutler took his team in from there hitting fellow former Vandy teammate Earl Bennett for a five yard td pass to put the Bears up 21-13. Cutler and Bennett hooked up for two tds and Cutler threw for two more, one to Johnny Knox and one to Greg Olsen. It was a great overall performance by the Bears team and one that was in a playoff like atmosphere.
I’m happy for Jay and Lovie. Lovie is a class act and a very good football coach. He just keeps his poise on the sidelines which I like. He has a great defense which he has a lot input in. And he has good coaches. Rod Marinelli, the Bears defensive coordinator, has the defense playing at a high level. They are just so aggressive and Brian Urlacher is dominant. Mike Martz is an outstanding offensive coach. The Bears have a tough schedule coming in. After Detroit on the road this weekend–not easy, no game is easy in the NFL–they have the Patriots and Jets at home and the Vikings and Packers on the road. Tough coming in, but I like the way this team is playing. The defense is awesome. Michael Vick is playing at such a high level that beating him is like winning two games. Bears at 8-3 one game behind Falcons in the NFC who won a huge game over the Packers, 20-17, in overtime. Matt Ryan of the Falcons is playing at an incredible level right now. Looking like an elite qb along with Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers and maybe Cutler. The NFC is shaping up to be very exciting with the Saints starting to play great ball and the Eagles and Giants competing for the East crown. It’s New England, the Jets, Baltimore and now San Diego in the AFC. Those look like the elite teams to me. Will have my picks in the playoffs and for the Super Bowl when the playoffs start. Right now, I like the Jets or Patriots and the Bears, Saints or Falcons. Home field advantage is so important in the playoffs. There are teams that get hot like the Giants in 2006-07 and the Steelers in 2005-06, but the Colts and Saints had home field advantage last year and it paid off. I’d rather have the home field than not though it’s no guarantee in the NFL. Something about Drew Brees and the Saints I like a lot again this year. They have come back from early season struggles, they’re getting healthy again and playing well on both sides of the ball. Drew has become the Kobe Bryant of the NFL. So clutch. Huge win over Dallas on Thanksgiving.
College football has been riveting and Oregon and Auburn are primed to make it to the BCS title game in Glendale Jan. 10 if they can win this weekend. But they’ve got to get through Oregon State and South Carolina respectively, and those aren’t guarantees by any means. South Carolina has the weapons in Marcus Lattimore, Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley. Stephen Garcia has been playing well and even though I still don’t totally trust him, he’s playing at a very high level right now and may have gotten over his nerves in the clutch. South Carolina is playing with a lot of confidence after their resounding win over Clemson, 29-7, backing up their huge win at Gainesville over the hapless Gators, 36-14.
This South Carolina team is for real and will give Auburn everything they want. Steve Spurrier will have a masterful game plan, so AU has to be prepared on defense for a lot of play action, throwing to Lattimore out of the backfield, the running of Lattimore, which Auburn stopped in the first game, and the dangerous Jeffery. Will Auburn use the game plan they employed in the first game and home in on stopping Lattimore and make Garcia beat them through the air? They may mix it up as Garcia is playing pretty well right now. They might crowd the line and blitz quite a bit. Should be a highly entertaining game.
I’ve also got to give a lot of credit to Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee. Arkansas could be primed for a BCS game depending on how Auburn does this weekend. They gave Alabama and Auburn a run. Still not over that hurdle yet, but Petrino and company getting closer. State had an awesome year under Dan Mullen. Eight wins is outstanding and Mullen is building quite a program. If they can keep him, he’ll do some great things. And how about Tennessee winning its last four to become bowl eligible. Derek Dooley did an excellent job keeping his team focused through a lot of turmoil. I think he’ll do great things at UT.
Oregon has to go on the road to Oregon State. The Beavers will be gunning for the Ducks. Think the Ducks have too much talent for the Beavers, but it could be interesting. An Auburn-Oregon matchup or an Auburn-TCU matchup would be compelling. If both Auburn and Oregon lose then it would get really interesting. I guess it would be Wisconsin and TCU. A lot to look forward to this weekend. Then the Heisman Trophy presentation the following weekend. No word on Cam’s situation, but he certainly looks like he could win it if he cements it this weekend with a victory over SC.
Will have picks on Friday, more this week. Please stay tuned.
(Saban and Chizik could turn out to be a huge rivalry in the next five to 10 years.)
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