Four stellar matchups in the NFL Playoffs; Analysis and Predictions

This should be an excellent weekend in the NFL with four classic games that could all come down to the end. In all four games, the teams have played each other already this year. In the AFC–in both games–the teams have been combatants twice this year. And I mean really combatants. The Jets-Patriots and Ravens-Steelers games are about teams that can’t stand each other. The Jets have been talking a lot of trash and have been lambasting Tom Brady. I really don’t think that’s very smart, but that’s the Jets. That’s the way they operate. Talk about a black and blue game, the Steelers and the Ravens will go after each other full bore. Ray Lewis and James Harrison (Steelers) are as fierce a pair of linebackers as you want to face. They are fearless and rattlesnake mean. That should be a war.
In the NFC, the Bears and the surprising Seahawks will do battle in the Windy City. Expect a hard hitting, intense game. The Seahawks beat the Bears in regular season, 23-20.

And the Packers go to Atlanta to try and knock off the team with the best record in the NFC and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Packers had a big victory at Philly last week, but can they do it in the Georgia Dome? They lost 20-17 during the regular season at Atlanta despite Aaron Rodgers throwing for 344 yards.

Here’s the breakdown of the games along with my predictions:

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pa.

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. CST

TV: CBS

Line: Steelers 3 1/2

The Skinny:The Ravens won at Pittsburgh, 17-14, in week four. That was a Steelers team without Ben Roethlisberger who was suspended for the first four games for conduct detrimental to the league. The Steelers won 13-10 at Baltimore in week 13 with Roethlisberger.

This is a battle of an elite quarterback (Rothlisberger) against a guy who is attempting to become an elite quarterback, Joe Flacco. Flacco had a clutch td pass that won the game for the Ravens in the game at Pittsburgh.

The Players:

Ravens:

Flacco is 306-489 (62%) for 3,622 yards, 25 tds and 10 ints. He has a qb rating of 93.6. He is trying to step up tpo the next level among quarterback elites. A victory here would help that cause.

Can Ray Rice be a factor against a tough Steelers defense? The running back has run for 1,220 yards and five touchdowns. A healthy Willis McGahee will help. McGahee has run for 380 yards and five tds. Flacco needs a running game to compliment his passing. The Steelers are so tough against the run though. They were first in the league in rush defense allowing only 62 yards a game and five tds.

Anquan Boldin has caught 64 passes for 837 yards and seven tds. Derrick Mason (61-802, 7 tds), Rice (63-556), T.J. Housmandzadeh (30-398, 3 tds) and Todd Heap (40-559, 3 tds) are the key targets for Flacco. Heap had 10 catches for 108 yards against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round last week. Flacco was 25-34 for 265 yards and two tds. His rating was 115.4. That was the Chiefs though. The Ravens beat the Chiefs, 30-7, and were dominant. They were very impressive, but this is a major step up in competition. The Chiefs could be very good in the future, but they’re not there yet. Still, the Ravens were impressive.

Ray Lewis, the tough as stainless steel veteran, is the leader on defense. He has 145 tackles (solo and assists) on the season. Dawan Landry has recorded 111 tackles. Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs has 11 sacks and Haloti Ngata, the nose guard, has 5.5 sacks. Suggs had two sacks against the Chiefs. The Ravens defense was dominant in that game. Safety Ed Reed, the Ravens perennial All-Pro safety, has eight interceptions on the season. Reed is playing with a heavy heart as his brother is missing in Louisiana. Reed performed well last Sunday despite the potential tragedy.

Steelers

For Pittsburgh it’s Roethlisberger, the running game and their tenacious defense. Roethlisberger is 240-389 (61.7%) for 3,200 yards, 17 tds and 5 ints. He has a rating of 97.0. The highest rating is 150. He has won two Super Bowls. He missed the first four games of the season due to his suspension, but has come on to have an excellent season.

Rashard Mendenhall has run for 1,273 yards and 13 tds. He’s averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Isaac Redman has run for 247 on 52 carries, 4.8 ypc.

Mike Wallace is Rothlisberger’s top target. He has 60 catches for 1,257 yards and 10 tds. He’s averaging 12.8 yards per catch. Hines Ward adds 59-755 and five tds. Tight end Heath Miller has 42 catches for 512 yards and two tds.

Lawrence Timmons leads the Steelers defense with 135 total tackles. James Farrior has 109. Troy Palamalu is a game changer on defense. He has 63 tackles and leads the team with seven interceptions. He was hurt at the end of the season, but played in the last game and should be ready to go.

Final Analysis and Prediction:

Should be an epic one here. Both defenses are intense, relentless and very opportunistic. Steelers were first against the run at 62 yards per game. Rice and McGahee had no success running against Steelers in their two meetings. Ravens fifth in NFL in run defense at 93.9 per game. Steelers number two in total defense at 276 yards per game. Ravens 10th at 318. Steelers were 12th in pass defense while Ravens were 21st. That could be an opening for Roethlisberger and company. Should be one of the hardest hitting games of the year. I’m giving Pittsburgh the edge because of their recent championship experience. Know Ray Lewis knows something about winning big games too since he won the Super Bowl in 2000 season, but Rothlisberger is clutch in these big games. He’s better than Flacco. Palamalu is another difference. He is like having a Tom Brady on your defense. He’ll blitz and cause a fumble which he did in the last meeting at Baltimore that won the game for the Steelers or he’ll make a clutch interception that wins games. He’ll also put a lick on you. With those two, I like the Steelers, but in a close, bruising classic. Look for Heap of Baltimore and Miller of Pittsburgh, the tight ends, to play a role in the outcome. For Baltimore to win they have to control Palamalu and get pressure and some turnovers off Roethlisberger. Flacco has to play well, of course. A tall order against the Steelers defense. Pittsburgh just needs to be Pittsburgh. That should be enough…barely.

Steelers 20, Ravens 17

New York Jets (12-5) @ New England Patriots (14-2)

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Sunday, 3:30 p.m.

TV:CBS

Line: Patriots 8 1/2

The Skinny:

Rex Ryan and his players have been mouthing off all week. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie has even gone so far as to call Tom Brady a pretty blatant expletive. It’s been out of control really. I don’t know if the Jets think they can beat the Pats or they’re just trying to make themselves believe they can by trash talking their heated rival. Jets beat Pats at home, 28-14, early in the season, but Pats blasted Jets at Foxborough, 45-3, late in the season. Do the Pats need any more motivation than beating a team they truly hate? They don’t, but Ryan and Cromartie and other Jest have given the Pats a lot of motivation. Ryan says it’s personal with Belichick, while Belichick is playing it calm and easy going, but he and Brady are out for blood. Jets trying to prove they’re the team they said they were before the season in Hard Knocks. They think they’re Super Bowl material. They don’t just think they can get there; they think they can win it. But they have to get through Foxborough and that’s a tough task that has been made tougher by their comments. I know that’s the way the Jets operate, but when you challenge a team like the Patriots it’s like fighting a guy who outweighs you by 40 pounds and is undefeated in every fight he’s ever been in and you’re taunting him. The Jets better bring their A+ game if they expect to fulfill their expectations. We’ll see if the Jets can do that.

The Players:

Jets:

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is in a similar position to Joe Flacco though Flacco is a better player. Sanchez is trying to prove that he’s an upper echelon quarterback. For the season he was 278-507 (55%) for 3,291 yards, 17 tds and 13 ints. Nothing special, but he did play a good game last week against the Colts and had a big throw to Braylon Edwards which led to the game winning field goal as time expired leading the Jets to the 17-16 victory. Coach Jim Caldwell of the Colts may have given Sanchez the biggest break of his career when he called timeout with 40 seconds left allowing Sanchez to talk the next play over with his offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, and decide to try a fade pattern to Edwards which worked for 18 yards and put the Jets in position for the game winning field goal. The Jets had a timeout left, but they didn’t have to use it until the last three seconds. They were not in field goal range before Caldwell’s timeout. Nick Folk hit the game winning 32-yard field goal as time expired.

Sanchez needs to be even better this week. The Patriots are 30th in the league in pass defense allowing an average of 258 yards per game, but lead the league in interceptions with 25.

LaDanian Tomlinson has found a fountain of youth with the Jets. He leads the team with 914 yards rushing and six tds. He had two last week against the Colts. Shon Greene has added  687 yards on 185 carries and two touchdowns. Tomlinson is the go to guy close to the end zone. Greene is a pretty powerful runner when healthy. New England is 11th against the run allowing 108 per game.

Dustin Keller, the Jets’ tight end, will be a big key for the offense. He has 55 catches for 687 yards and five tds. He came up big against the Colts last week. He had only three receptions, but they seemed to come at critical times. Edwards has caught 53 passes for 904 yards and seven tds. Santonio Holmes has 52 catches for 746 and six tds. This is an outstanding receiving corps that has gotten better and better as the season has progressed. Tomlinson has caught 52 passes and Jerricho Cotchery,out of B’ham, is a valuable player off the bench. Was a starter before Edwards and Holmes got to New York. He has 41 catches for 433 and two tds.

David Harris leads the defense with 99 tackles. The outstanding Bart Scott is next with 81. Cromartie leads the team with three interceptions. But the most valuable Jet on defense and probably on the team is cornerback Darrelle Revis. He doesn’t have an interception this year because nobody throws at him. But he held Colts star wideout Reggie Wayne to just one catch last week for one yard. Revis Island is a tough place to be and he’ll probably be all over Wes Welker. The Jets defense is third against the run in the league, sixth against the pass and third in total defense. You would have to give a decided edge to the Jets defense over the Patriots defense.

Patriots:

Tom Brady is right behind Montana and Elway as the best quarterback of all time. Could pass both of them if he wins some more championships. He’s completed 324-492 passes (65.9%) for 3,900 yards and has thrown 36 touchdowns against four ints. That’s ridiculously good. The guy is playing on another level this year.

Ben Jarvis Green out of Ole Miss has added a running game to the Patriots arsenal this season. He has rushed for 1,008 yards and 13 tds. Danny Woodhead has added 97-547 and five touchdowns. The Pats just keep filling in spots with players who even turn out better than the previous ones. Getting rid of Randy Moss was a brilliant move by Belichick.

Wes Welker, who could go down as one of the best possession receivers to ever play in the league, has 86 catches for 848 yards and seven tds. Deion Branch has 48 catches for 706 yards and five scores. Aaron Hernandez, the rookie out of Florida, has 45-563 and six tds and Rod Gronkowski has 42 catches for 546 and an astounding 10 touchdowns. The weapons just keep coming at you.

Belichick has a lot of young players on defense, but they’ve improved throughout the year. Inside linebacker Jerod Mayo has 175 tackles (solo and assists),free safety Patrick Chung has 96 tackles and cornerback Devin McCourty has 82. The Pats have four guys with three ints apiece. They are always opportunistic under Belichick and while they’re 25th in the league in total defense, they make the plays when they count..

Final Analysis and Prediction:

The Jets have a pretty good defense, but Brady torched them for four touchdowns and 326 yards and a 148 passer rating (out of 150) in week 13, a Patriots 45-3 win. The Bears put 38 up on the Jets in week 16. Brady probably won’t throw too much at Revis, nobody does, but he’ll try to get the ball to Welker some, so he might challenge Revis. He’s probably going to school Cromartie though, because Brady may have been playing  it cool about Cromartie’s comments earlier in the week, but it’s personal. And Brady is pretty good at doling out punishment on the field. He’ll be smart and pick his spots, but he’ll go after Cromartie with his wideouts and talented tight ends. The Jets need to somehow get pressure on Brady if possible. The offensive line for the Pats is so good and Brady is so quick getting rid of the ball that they’re basically unstoppable. I don’t think Sanchez and company can get enough done against the Pats defense to keep up. I see the Pats taking it to the Jets and punching Cromartie and Ryan in the mouth on the field where things should be decided.

Patriots 35, Jets 17

Green Bay Packers (11-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.

7 p.m., Saturday

FOX

Line: Falcons 2 1/2

The Skinny:

The Falcons beat the Pack, 20-17, in week 11. Aaron Rodgers led his team to a game tying touchdown, but Eric Weems returned the Packers kickoff to midfield and the Falcons moved it down and won on a late field goal. Rodgers had fumbled at the Falcons’ one earlier in the game when he tried to leap in the end zone for a touchdown. His right arm was hurt so he tried to carry the ball in his left arm and it was knocked out and the Falcons recovered. The Falcons are great at home, particularly Matt Ryan, who is 20-2 in the Dome. But Green Bay is one of those teams you get every year in the playoffs that is hot. This could be decided at the end like the regular season game was.

The Players:

Packers:

Aaron Rodgers is a very good quarterback who is trying to become great. He needs to win a Super Bowl to do that and this year he has a chance. He’s got to make it through Atlanta and possibly Chicago to do that. He is 312-475 (65.7%) for 3,922 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has become very accurate and may get Packers fans to forget about Brett Favre if he wins a couple of Super Bowls. He was highly efficient against the Eagles last week completing 18-27 for 180 yards and three tds with a quarterback rating of 122.5. He wears his emotions on his sleeves on the football field, but seems to control them enough to perform at a high level. Like every other quarterback this weekend, he has to step up against a decent defense. The Falcons are 16th in the league in total defense, but only 22nd against the pass. But they are fourth in the league in interceptions with 22.

Brandon Jackson has run for 703 yards on 190 carries and three tds. But the real story is James Starks. He only ran for 101 yards on the season, but had 123 yards on 23 carries last week against the Eagles, a huge reason the Packers won 21-16 along with a Tramon Williams interception of a Michael Vick pass in the end zone at the end of the game. Starks could be a huge factor in this game. Atlanta is 16th against the run. If Starks can run the ball successfully along with Jackson and the clutch John Kuhn (281 yards, four tds), Rodgers should be able to have his way with the Falcons defense.

Greg Jennings is the leading receiver for the Pack. He has 76 catches for 1,276 yards and 12 tds. Donald Driver has 51 catches for 566 and four tds. James Jones adds 50 for 679 and five tds. Jordy Nelson has 45-582 and two tds. This was all during the regular season.

On defense is where the Packers have the edge. They are fifth in the league in total defense and fifth against the pass. They are 18th against the run, which Atlanta does well, so the Falcons might try to exploit that slight weakness. A. J. Hawk leads the Pack with 111 tackles. Desmond Bishop is next at 103. The awesome Clay Matthews has 60 tackles and 13.5 sacks on the season. He is another game changer like Palamalu. Williams leads the team with six ints. The Pack are second in the league in interceptions with 24. Charles Woodson is another weapon for the Pack on defense. He’s like Revis. He only has two interceptions on the season because nobody wants to throw at him. He is devastating on the blitz. He can change a game in a hurry with a big play. This defense is pretty special.

Falcons:

Matt Ryan is in the same league as Flacco; not as good as Rodgers, but trying to get there. He has completed 357-571 (62.5%) for 3,705 yards, 28 touchdowns and nine ints. He’s going against a pretty good secondary, so he’ll need some help on the ground.

Michael Turner has rushed for 1,371 yards this year on 334 attempts, 4.1 per game. He has 12 tds. Powerful runner with pretty decent speed.

Roddy White, from UAB, is outstanding. The wideout has 115 catches for 1,389 yards and 1o tds. He’s averaging 12 yards per catch. The always reliable Tony Gonzalez has 70 catches for 656 and six tds. Jason Snelling has 44-3o3 and three tds.

Curtis Lofton leads the defense with 118 tackles and Brent Grimes has 87. John Abraham has 13 sacks on the season. William Moore and Grimes lead the team with five ints apiece. The Falcons have 22 ints on the season, fourth in the league. Their run defense is 10th in the league while their pass defense is 22nd.

Final Analysis and Prediction:

I think Aaron Rodgers is ready to be a prime time quarterback. I don’t think Matt Ryan is there yet. Not against this defense. If Green Bay can run the ball effectively that is going to make Rodgers that much more dangerous. Again, Atlanta is 22nd in the league in pass defense, so Rodgers, with some help from Starks and company on the ground, could have a big night. Ryan is a good quarterback no doubt, but the Pack defense led by Matthews and Woodson are capable of making you pay for any mistake, Matthews by making the line pay by sacking the quarterback and Woodson by blitzing and sacking or by interceptions which he sets up for his teammates with his Superglue-like coverage. Gotta go with Rodgers and the Pack defense in this one. I know Atlanta is tough at home, but they have squeaked by some inferior opponents this year. Not a total believer in the Falcons. I am in the Packers.

Packers 28, Falcons 24

Seattle Seahawks (8-9) @ Chicago Bears (11-5)

Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois

Noon, Sunday

FOX

Line: Bears 10

The Skinny:

The Bears have been very good a lot of times and not so good some times. Overall, they’ve had a good season. Jay Cutler is inconsistent, but when he’s on, he can be dynamic. Chicago has found a pretty good run/pass balance as offensive coordinator Mike Martz discovered they had to have if they were going to make a run this year. Matt Forte has been very good at running back. The defense is solid with some superstars on that side of the ball. The Seahawks got tired of being criticized by the media for their regular season and took it to the Saints defense last week in the first round. Matt Hasselbeck was awesome and Marshawn Lynch had an epic game clinching run. The Seahawks beat the Bears in the regular season, 23-20, so the Bears shouldn’t be overconfident. If they are, they’re done. Pete Carroll is one of the loosest, and, in my opinion, best coaches in college or pro ball. He is a fun guy who the players love to play for. He can really motivate them. The guy has a fun personality and the players respond to that. He’ll have his team ready. Lovie Smith brings a calm, steady hand to the sideline for the Bears. He’s done a great job in Chicago despite being relentlessly criticized over the last couple of years. He has a good coaching staff intact and the Bears could be primed for a run to Dallas this season.

The Players:

Seahawks:

Hasselbeck hasn’t had a great season, but he is a good postseason player as he showed last week. He’s 5-5 in the playoffs including a loss in the Super Bowl where the Seahawks were three blatantly bad calls away from beating the Steelers in the 2006 Super Bowl. He threw for four touchdowns last week against the Saints and was 22-35 for 272 yards with one int. He finished with a 113 rating. For the season he’s 266-444 (60%) for 3001 yards, 12 tds and 17 ints. Not that great. But the guy steps up on the big stage. Against the Bears earlier this season, he was 25-30 for 242 yards and a touchdown.

Lynch has run for 573 yards on the season and six tds. Last week against the Saints he ran for 131 yards and had an epic 67-yarder in which the Saints missed nine tackles. It was a mixture of  great running and terrible tackling. Justin Forsett has run for 523 yards and two tds.

Mike Williams leads the receiving corps with 65 catches for 751 yards and two touchdowns. He caught 10 passes for 123 yards, single handedly beating the Bears in the first game between the teams in Chicago. Deon Butler has caught 36 passes for 385 yards and four tds. Forsett has 33 receptions and Ben Obamanu out of Auburn has 30-494 and four tds.

Seattle’s defense is shaky. They are 27th in total defense, 21st against the run and 27th against the pass. David Hawthorne leads the team with 106 tackles. Marcus Trufant has 80. Super rookie Earl Thomas out of Texas–Alabama fans may remember this guy–has five ints on the season at safety.

Bears:

How will Jay Cutler do this week? That’s always the question. I love the guy but he is erratic. He could have the strongest arm in the NFL, but it’s almost a curse for him as he tries to force and will throws into receivers that just aren’t there and get intercepted. Rick Reilly wrote a pretty critical piece on Jay on ESPN.com this week calling him basically a jerk. I think Jay is a  misunderstood guy. He doesn’t have much time for the media and is short with them. They have been critical of him so I don’t blame him. He doesn’t look people in the eye a lot. His dad is a cop, so he’s had a pretty disciplined, tough upbringing. He’s a tough guy without a doubt, pretty emotional on the field, but teammate Greg Olsen calls him a great guy and one of his best friends. Your team knows you best. Jay is intelligent and has flourished at times in Mike Martz’s offense. He could be great down the road. He needs to get going though. Needs to mature some more. Has all the tools to be a great player. He’s highly competitive and I think that’s where he’s misunderstood. People mistake that for arrogance or cockiness. Jay is just being himself. He’s a good guy and wants to win in Chicago. He is 261-432 (60%) for 3,274 yards with 23 touchdowns and 16 ints. His passer rating is 86.3, not great, but not bad either. He has been sacked 52 times this year and that’s been a problem. He was sacked six times in the first game with the Seahawks, but the Bears line has finally come together and played pretty well at the end of the year. If Jay can get protection, he should be good. The line is critical in this one.

Matt Forte has been huge this season and has been a major reason the Bears won their division and got a first round bye. Forte ran for 1,069 yards and six tds. Chester Taylor hasn’t been much help. He’s run for 267 and three tds. In the first game against Seattle, the Bears only ran for 61 yards. Cutler was 17-39 for 290 but no tds. Devin Hester made the big play for the Bears in a losing effort. He ran a punt back 89 yards for a score. He’s had three returns for tds this season. He is the most valuable return weapon in the league; one of the greatest of all time.

Forte has 51 catches for 547 and three tds. Johnny Knox, a burner, has 51-960 and five tds. The reliable Earl Bennett, a former teammate of Cutler’s at Vandy and a B’ham product, has 46 catches for 561 yards and three tds. Bennett threw a punishing block on Hester’s punt return against the Seahawks in their regular season game. He is a valuable player. He was out in the last game of the season against the Packers and Cutler and the Bears missed him as they lost 10-3. Greg Olsen, a weapon at tight end, has 41 catches for 404 and five tds. Hester adds 40-475 and four tds.

Hester is the all time TD leader in kickoff/punt returns with 14; 10 on punts and four on kickoffs. He is a game changer.

The Bears defense is star-studded. Brian Urlacher leads the team with 126 tackles. He also has four sacks. Lance Briggs, another standout linebacker, has 88 tackles. Charles Tillman has 83 and the phenomenal Julius Peppers has eight sacks on the season. Israel Idonijie, one of the best players you’ve never heard of, also has eight sacks. Tillman and the ultra clutch Chris Harris both have five interceptions. Harris had the pick that iced the game against the Jets and made the int in the end zone that changed the momentum in the game against the Eagles which the Bears won. He’s another game changer.

Final Analysis and Prediction:

The Bears are second in the league in rush defense allowing 90.1 per game. Seattle is 21st at 118.9. Chicago is not as good against the pass as they are 20th in the league allowing 224 per game but have 21 ints. Seattle is 27th allowing 249 and 31 tds to just 12 ints. The Bears are ninth in total defense and the Seahawks are 27th. With those type of defensive numbers you gotta like the Bears. It’s all on Cutler, Forte and the offensive line. If the line can hold off Seattle giving Cutler time to throw, he should do well. If Forte gets holes, he’ll do well. So really for the Bears, it’s really about their oline. The Seshawks sacked Cuter six times in their first meeting, so protection is paramount.Hasselbeck is hot and Mike Williams dominated the Bears in their first contest. But if Peppers and Idonijie have their way, Hasselbeck could have a long afternoon. Lynch will not be able to run like he did against the Saints. He may have trouble getting 40 yards. So it’s about how Hasselbeck plays. Cutler and the Bears defense do enough here to overcome Seattle.

Bears 31, Seahawks 20

My overall record for college picks was 142-54 (72%). Finished 21-14 in bowls. I was 3-1 last week in my pro picks. Lost on the Saints like everybody else did.  Great football coming up beginning this weekend as teams aim for Jerryville in Dallas on Feb. 6. Enjoy the games.

(Tom Brady will try to punish Antoinio Cromartie and the Jets defense this Sunday.)



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