The 106th playing of the PGA Championship, preview/prediction

Valhalla Golf Club will host the 106th PGA Championship that commences tomorrow. The course is big and will be playing over 7,600 yards as a par 71. The defending champion is Brooks Koepka who won at Oak Hill Country Club in New York in May of 2023.

Rory McIlroy lit up the field last weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship to capture that signature event then proceeded to get divorced on Monday. Scottie Scheffler’s odds of winning the Grand Slam are 40/1; the same odds that Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay have of winning this major. Scheffler is coming off a three week layoff after he and his wife Meredith had a son, Bennett, last Wednesday, May 8th. He seems like an unstoppable force right now in golf. Tiger Woods said if Scottie’s putting terribly, he finishes in the top 10; if he’s putting pretty well, he wins; and if he’s putting really well, he wins going away. Could be a little gamesmanship there, but it’s a pretty accurate statement. But there’s no guarantee that Scheffler Will putt well. Koepka recently won on the LIV Tour capturing the Singapore Open two weeks ago. Jamie Diaz said that there are two things to know about Koepka: 1. He doesn’t love the game except for the majors, and 2. you seem to have to motivate him sometimes. The spoils of being a LIV player can make you soft. But Koepka won last year and he’s very capable. This course likes the long hitters and he’s one of them. So is Scheffler, so is Rory. One hundred fifty six players will tee it up in pursuit of the Wanamaker Trophy given to the winner of the PGA.

Here are key tee times for Thursday (all times Central). Odds included.

6:53 AM

Ludvig Aberg, 12/1. Excellent Austrian player who had a great Masters finishing 2nd. Xander Schauffele.12/1. John Feinstein in one of his great books, The Majors, named the best players who hadn’t won a major. That was back in the 1990’s. Schauffele can certainly be a top 3 player in that group today. Justin Thomas, 40/1. Hadn’t done much lately, but in his hometown and has won two PGA’s in 2017 and 2022. I would consider him a long shot.

7:04 AM

Tiger, 125/1. I think he should concentrate on becoming the captain of the 2025 Ryder Cup, though I’m not sure he’s that great at the team concept of golf, so maybe Webb Simpson or Stewart Cink would be better choices. On the policy board to try to figure out this PGA/LIV merger. Good luck with that. Adam Scott, 85/1. Hard pass. Keegan Bradley, 85/1. It’s been a long time since 2012 when he won it at the Atlanta Country Club.

7:15 AM

Rory, 6/1. I still don’t trust him in majors and that divorce, you’ve got to be an animal if that doesn’t affect you. Dustin Johnson, 45/1. Not much belief in this guy. Too much time on the LIV Tour has made him non-competitive in majors. Justin Rose, 175/1. Maybe a little over the hill at this point.

7:26 AM

Cam Smith, 33/1. He’s capable, but has the LIV Tour ruined his chances? Hideki Matsuyama, 35/1. Possible. I picked him in the Masters and he didn’t play that well. Might be a miracle if he wins it due to his putting issues. Viktor Hovland. 35/1. Not there with him yet. Not playing well enough.

7:37 AM

Koepka, 10/1. Possible, but does he still have the focus. That’s my question. Max Homa, 33/1. I like this player. Spieth, 55/1. Head case still. Not believing in him.

12:51 PM

Collin Morikawa, 25/1. Not a believer in him either right now. Phil, 125/1. Yeah right. Matthew Fitzpatrick, 50/1. Not opposed to him doing well, but he hasn’t done much lately.

1:02 PM

Rickie Fowler, 125/1. Nope. Jon Rahm, 14/1. Don’t have a great feeling about him. Has burned a lot of bridges in the U.S. by defecting to LIV. Cam Young, 50/1. Could play well.

1:13 PM

Wyndham Clark, 25/1. Not seeing it. Brian Harmon, 75/1. Seems like a while ago that he won the Open Championship, but it was just last year. Course may be too long for him. Scheffler, 3/1. Bullish, no doubt.

1:24 PM

Patrick Cantlay, 28/1. Not seeing this either. Camilo Villegas, 300/1. Longshot beyond belief. Will Zalatoris, 40/1. Hadn’t done much. Don’t like his chances.

Weather

Thursday, 80, partly cloudy. wind WSW 8.

Friday, 70, 87% chance of rain. Greens will be very soft and gettable by Sunday. SSW 8.

Saturday, 80, 49% chance of showers. Wind N 7.

Sunday, 87, Sunny. Low humidity. Perfect.Wind N 7.

TV, All times Central

Thursday, 6-11 AM, ESPN+, 11 AM-5 PM ESPN.

Friday, 6-11 AM CT, ESPN+, 11 AM-6 PM, ESPN.

Saturday-Sunday, 7-9 AM, ESPN+. 9 AM-12 PM, ESPN. 12-6 PM, CBS.

Winner

I’m going to take the 33 year old from Burbank, California. He finished tied for third at the Masters and finished tied 8th last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Interestingly, Scottie Scheffler has won 10 tourneys including back to back Players (2023, ‘24) and two Masters (2022, 2024), but has never won after April in 5 years on the tour. It’s dangerous to go against him, but that’s significant to me. I’m not buying Rory. Lets you down too much and too much baggage right now. They asked the players if there was any progress being made in the LIV/ PGA merger talks and they all gave the cookie cutter answers except for my winner. He said he’s frustrated and that fans don’t care about the business side of golf. He said he sure doesn’t care about the business side of the Lakers or the Dodgers, his hometown teams. He’s hoping golf gets back to the entertainment business and fans can think about who’s shooting the lowest score not who’s on the PGA Policy Board. That’s interesting and he’s interesting. Give me an interesting, honest guy.

Michael Block, just kiddin’.

Max Homa

11 Responses

  1. Great write up about your winner, Thx.
    Looking forward to it. Certainly all eyes on Scheffler,…..I like to watch Koepka is this Major. Lots going on with the Policy Board.
    Take care.

  2. Great pick for winner who’s a great guy. I’m pulling for him, at least in one pool. The last time Rory dumped a significant other, Caroline Wozniaki, he won the 2014 PGA so there’s hope for him this week.

  3. I love your pick DW. One of my favorites.
    If I had to go with someone other than Scheffler I would go Homa but until I see him fall off some I’m sticking with Scheffler

  4. Thanks for the analysis. I’m really looking forward to watching this tourney because everyone is in it. Homa seems like a logical pick, so good luck! John Rahm and Byeong Hun An are my longshot picks. Will win some big $’s if either one wins it. Always pulling for Phil but agree with you it’s extremely doubtful he will be competitive. Rory or Scottie seems the most likely.

  5. Thanks for the preview, DW! Agree with you that it is a lengthy course and that it will favor the long hitters. Like your Homa pick!

  6. Love your Max "Me Out" Homa- I will enjoy watching him win. Heard you were training with the Serial Killer recently. Keep it up- it works.

  7. Thanks, E&SMU! Had a spectacular lesson with the serial Killer, Brombey! Awesome teacher. Working on it this weekend and seeing him again next Tuesday. Trying to get my game somewhat close to your stellar game. Thanks, fellas!

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