This is the toughest sport to predict and this tournament is even tougher. It’ll come down to the last three holes for sure. It starts with the par five, 507 yard 16th, which can be reached in two and eagled. Then the famed Island hole, the par-3 17th, which can make or break you; a lot of times break you. It’s 137 yards and can be a nine iron or a pitching wedge most of the time depending on the wind. If the wind is up, it’s your best guesstimate as to whether to use an 8-iron or a nine iron or wedge. An 8-iron long will put you in the water behind the green, a nine-iron or wedge short and you’re in the water in front of the green. It’s treacherous. Tiger Woods made an epic deuce on the hole when he won in 2001 with a 55 foot putt for birdie. Paul Goydos got in a playoff with Sergio Garcia in 2008 and lost it on the 17th hitting his ball in the water.
The par-four 447 yard 18th will test your clutch gene. Can you keep it out of the water on the left side and out of the trees on the right? The second shot is a test of mettle as well. Can you get yourself in birdie or par position to win the championship? This should be classic theater. Here are 12 guys I think who can win, and yes, I’ll go ahead and pick a winner at the end. Hardest prediction in sports; who will win golf major.
1. Matt Kuchar: Just an excellent player. Won the Barclay’s in the Fed Ex Playoffs last year and has been in the hunt this year. He has six top 10 finishes this year. His best finish is third at the Accenture Match Play. He may be the most consistent player on the tour since the middle of last year. Hits it long, solid iron game and nice putter. He’s in there.
2.Justin Rose: Three top 10’s in 2011. He tied for third at Bay Hill and fifth at the Transitions in Florida. Seems to be close a lot, and has won on the tour. I don’t think he’ll win, but he could be in the hunt at the end.
3.Bubba Watson: Playing incredible golf right now, leading the Fed Ex Standings. He won the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines and at New Orleans at the Zurich Open two weeks ago. Averages 313 off the tee, one of the longest guys in the game today. Has the overall game to get it done.
4.Luke Donald: Seven events, six top 10’s. Won the Accenture Match Play, tied for fourth in the Masters after playing some beautiful golf on the final round and was second in the Heritage at Hilton Head, losing in a playoff to Brandt Snedeker. He’s definitely got the game to get it done this week.
5.Nick Watney: Nine tournaments entered, eight cuts made. Won the World Golf Championships at Doral and that always says something if you’ve won in Florida already. He’s long and has the entire package.
6. Adam Scott: Seven tournaments entered, five cuts made. Second in the Masters, sixth at Doral. Won here in 2004. If he’s putting well, he could win it.
7.Phil Mickelson: Won here in 2007. Still playing at a very high level. Won at Houston this year. Averaging 298 off the tee. Another guy who if he has his putter going, could win it.
8.Brandt Snedeker: Sneds was outstanding at the Heritage three weeks ago showing incredible mettle when Luke Donald sank his birdie putt on the first playoff hole and Sneds came right back and sank his nine footer for birdie. Driving the ball very well. Incredible putter. Five top 10’s this year. Leads the tour in strokes gained on the green. He’s got a good shot to make some noise come Sunday.
9. J.B. Holmes: Hits it 316; longest guy on tour. He tied for ninth at the Wells Fargo last week and has two fifth place finishes at the Waste Management and the Match Play. Can light it up. Very good player.
10. Lucas Glover: Won last week at Wells Fargo. Has great length and won the U.S. Open in 2009. Knows how to win a Major. Is a factor.
11. Brendan Steele: Won Texas Valero Open. Beautiful driver of the ball. Excellent putter. I interviewed Brendan in 2009 and watched him play. Great guy, great player. Has a shot.
The winner:
My best educated guess: Matt Kuchar.
(Brandt Snedeker, left, or Matt Kuchar could get it done this week at The Players.)