College Football Week 11 with some key SEC and National Matchups

The No.2 Crimson Tide had a tough time with a scrappy LSU squad last Saturday Night at Bryant-Denny. They’ll try to regroup this Saturday against New Mexico State, an Independent that is 1-8. Alabama just wants to play well and get back some momentum heading into the home stretch of their season.

The Crimson Tide has been an enigma many times this year, but not any moreso than No.17 Auburn. Many pundits, including me, had Auburn winning last Saturday at Texas A&M, but they never had a chance. Bo Nix was the “Bad Bo” against the Aggies. I’m not so sure Bryan Harsin won’t have T.J. Finley ready to go this Saturday if Nix doesn’t perform. I would think that would be the case. Auburn hosts a pretty strong Mississippi State team that was a defensive holding, missed illegal procedure call and 3 missed field goals away from upsetting Arkansas last Saturday on the road. They’ve had some good victories, including A&M on the road, so the Tigers have their hands full at Jordan-Hare on Saturday.

No.1 Georgia is at Tennessee in what should be a pretty competitive matchup. It’ll be interesting to see how Stetson Bennett keeps progressing at quarterback for the Dawgs. Everything else is really clicking. Bennett has been very solid and spectacular at times. He’ll be tested on Saturday and he’s shown a propensity to not be as good against better opponents, so it’ll be a challenging matchup for him. J.T, Daniels is waiting in the wings if Bennett is not effective.

Some other key conference matchups include No.11 Texas A&M at No. 15 Ole Miss in a hugely important game, particularly for A&M, No.25 Arkansas is at LSU, which played a heckuva game against the Crimson Tide last Saturday Night. Kentucky is at Vanderbilt. South Carolina is at Missouri. And Florida, reeling under Dan Mullen, host Samford.

Here’s a look at those games and the key national matchups.

Last Week, 15-11, Overall, 165-74, 69%

ATS, Last Week, 14-12, Overall, 129-109, 54%.

All Rankings are College Football Playoff Rankings

New Mexico Stare @ No.2 Alabama

Bryant-Denny Stadium, Ttown

11 AM CT

SEC Network

Taylor Zarzour, Stinch, Alyssa Lang

Bama by 51 1/2

The offensive line has been a real Achilles Heel lately for the Crimson Tide, and now center Darrian Dalcourt is questionable for the game this Saturday with a sprained ankle and most likely out. Chris Owens moved over from tackle last Saturday over to center, but Nick Saban says there may be some younger guys who get a shot this Saturday. Freshmen like Terrence Ferguson, who was a 97 4 star by 247 sports, or one of the Brockmeyer brothers, James, who is a natural center and a 92, 4 star, and this is a guesstimate, but also Tommy, who is a 99, 5 star, may get an opportunity. It’ll be an interesting decision for S and the coaching staff. Meanwhile, the defense played a very good game against LSU. Freshman Dallas Turner, a 99, 4 star outside linebacker/edge rusher, showed he’s going to be a force for the Crimson Tide defense. And Will Anderson is putting his name squarely in the Heisman race. He’s my leader right now. I know it rarely goes to a defensive player. Charles Woodson of Michigan, in the 1997 season, is the only one I can remember getting it as he was a cornerback. But Anderson leads the country in tackles for loss with 21, he leads the country in quarterback pressures with 40, S always talks about how important affecting the quarterback is, how it leads to turnovers, and his 10 sacks ranks third in the country, only one behind leader Felix Anudike of Kansas State. So Anderson has put together a spectacular season. The defense was really solid last Saturday Night. Cornerback Jaylin Armour-Davis is struggling with a rib injury, but S sees him a go on Saturday. Armour-Davis is an excellent player. Bryce Young just needs protection and BRob and his running back mates need holes to run through. If the offensive line can come together, this team’s got a shot to excel the rest of the season and into the postseason. Anderson was asked about the Heisman Trophy, and he responded, “I’m just focused on helping the team get to another natty. That’s all I’m worried about, getting to a natty.” Love it.

Alabama 63, New Mexico State 3

Mississippi State @ No. 17 Auburn

Jordan-Hare Stadium

11 AM CT

ESPN

Bob Wischusen, Jrodg, Kris Budden

Tigers by 5 1/2

Which Bo Nix will show up, and if he struggles, will Bryan Harsin go to T.J. Finley. Spike made a good point on the blog a couple of weeks ago when he said Finley throws a lot more catchable ball than Nix does. I agree with that. Nix throws it too hard, it’s hard for the receivers to catch. And he’s back to running backwards and turning the ball over. Some of it was the vaunted Texas A&M line that dominated the Tigers offensive line. I like Auburn to win here, but not by much. State has a solid defense and Will Rogers can sling it around the yard. The home field gets the Tigers over the top.

Auburn 21, Mississippi State 17

No. 1 Georgia @ Tennessee

Neyland Stadium, Knoxvegas

2:30 PM CT

CBS

Brad, Gary, Jamie

UGA by 20

I like this to be a closer game than anticipated. South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said before the Gamecocks game played Tennessee that Vols still had great players on their roster, that there had been some super recruiting done by Jeremy Pruitt. Tennessee went up to Lexington last Saturday Night and handled Kentucky. They’re a hot team. Georgia’s defense and enough offense get them over the top, but this will be a tougher game than expected.

Dawgs 28, Vols 14

No. 11 Texas A&M @ No. 15 Ole Miss

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford

6 PM CT

ESPN

Fowler, Herbstreit, Rowe

A&M by 2 1/2

A&M is doing what they did last year, getting hot in November. They manhandled Auburn last Saturday in College Station. I like them to keep their momentum going in Oxford, though it’ll be close.

A&M 30, Ole Miss 27

No. 25 Arkansas @ LSU

Tiguh Stadium, Baaton Rouge

6:30 PM CT

SEC Network

Tom, Cole, Tera Talmadge

Ark by 2 1/2

LSU gained a lot of momentum by putting a scare into the Crimson Tide last Saturday. I like O’s farewell tour, which I don’t agree with in the first place, to go well on a Saturday Night in Baton Rouge.

LSU 28, Arkansas 27

Other SEC contests

Kentucky 38, Vanderbilt 14

Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville

6 PM CT

ESPN2

Anish Shroff, Mike Golic Jr., Taylor McGregor

UK by 21

South Carolina 27, Missouri 24

Faurot Field, Columbia MO.

3 PM CT

SEC Network

Dave, Deuce, Andraya

Even

Give me the Gamecocks, fresh off a 40-17 blasting of the Gators, to take another step toward building a consistent winner and being a challenger in the East in the future with a victory on the road.

Florida 42, Samford 14

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville

11 AM CT

SEC Network+

Mike Couzens, Dustin Fox

Gators by 31 1/2

Dan Mullen’s seat is definitely getting warmer. He did the typical fire his defensive coordinator and fire his offensive line coach, always a sign when a coach is in trouble, so he’s got to win out over Samford @Missouri and FSU at home or he could be out at Florida.

Penn State 17, No. 6 Michigan 14

Beaver Stadium, Happy Valley, PA.

11 AM CT

ABC

Sean McDonough, Dan Orlovsky, Molly McGrath

Michigan by 1 1/2

I like Jimmy Frank and his Nittany Lions to pull off the slight upset over Jim and company and ruin the Wolverines hopes of getting in the playoff. Franklin is still a major candidate at USC, so we’ll see how that soap opera shakes out.

No.8 Oklahoma 42, No. 13 Baylor 41

McLane Stadium, Waco, TX.

11 AM CT

FOX

Gus, Joel, Jenny

OU by 5 1/2

I expect an offensive juggernaut on both sides with the Sooners keeping their playoff hopes alive in a very hostile environment against an outstanding team.

No.3 Oregon 34, Washington State 21

Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR.

9:30 PM CT

ESPN

Dave, Rod, Stormy

Ducks by 14

Oregon keeps their playoff hopes alive, but in a tougher contest then expected. Mario Cristobal has done a superb job in Eugene and is another coach that could be of interest at Southern Cal and LSU unless he’s content where he is, and why shouldn’t he be. He’s doing extremely well in the Pacific Northwest with the way he’s recruited always being in the picture to win it all.California and Louisiana have a lot of great players for recruiting, and contract is a factor, so it’ll be pretty compelling to see what happens with Cristobal if this season ends successfully.

No. 4 Ohio State 45, No. 19 Purdue 21

Ohio Stadium, Columbus

2:30 PM CT

ABC

Tess, Gregory, Katie

Buckeyes by 21

The Boilermakers have been giant killers after going to then No.5 Iowa and upsetting the Hawkeyes in October and then upsetting last week’s No.3, Michigan State, at home. But I see quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes putting it together this Saturday.

Friday

No.5 Cincinnati 31, South Florida 17

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

5 PM CT

ESPN2

Jason Benetti, Andre, Carc

Cincy by 23

Cincy has been just skating by recently, and they are still hanging in there, but not as impressively. Still, they keep winning.

No.7 Michigan State 34, Maryland 31

Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI.

3 PM CT

FOX

Joe Davis, Brock Huard

MSU by 13

Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terps give Mich State everything they want.

Virginia 42, No. 9 Notre Dame 40

Scott Stadium, Cville

6:30 PM CT

ABC

Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Lugues

Irish by 5 1/2

Give me the ‘Hoos in the upset knocking the Irish out of the Playoff picture.

No. 10 Oklahoma State 34, TCU 17

Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK.

7 PM CT

FOX

Timmy B., Spencer

Cowboys by 13

I’m not going against the Pokes anymore except when they get to Bedlam and I’m not sure about going against them in that one either as they will be at T. Boone Stadium. Excellent team with a stellar defense, surprising in the Big 12, but this defense is for real.

No. 16 N.C. State 41, No. 12 Wake Forest 40

Trust Field, Winston-Salem, N.C.

6:30 PM CT

ACC Network

Dave O’Brien, Tim Hasselbeck, Kelsey Riggs

Wake by 2

Will take the Wolfpack in a slight upset. Both teams have put together solid seasons, and Wake lost a heartbreaker at Chapel Hill last Saturday eliminating them from the playoff, but still with a shot at the New Year’s Six. But I like the Wolfpack a little better in this game.

No. 24 Utah 35, Arizona 7

Arizona Stadium, Tucson

1 PM CT

PAC12 Network

Roxy Bernstein, Lincoln Kennedy

Utah by 24

Still bullish on the Utes. Oregon game coming up is huge at Salt Lake a week from Saturday.

UAB 31, Marshall 28

Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, W. VA.

2:30 PM CT

CBS Sports Network

John Sadak, Randy Cross

Marshall by 4 1/2

Give me the Blazers in a slight upset. DeWayne McBride rushed for 210 yards and 4 TDs last Saturday in a 52-38 victory over LA Tech. I like McBride to have another big game.

No.23 UTSA 45, Southern Miss 10

Alamodome, San Antonio

2:30 PM CT

ESPN+

Lincoln Rose, LaDarrin McLane

UTSA by 33

Texas-San Antonio has one of the most electric offenses in America. A really fun team to watch. I’m bullish on’em.

Tonight

No.21 Pittsburgh 42, UNC 38

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh

6:30

ESPN

Matt Barrie, Roddy Jones, Katie George

Panthers by 6 1/2

The Panthers survive a strong Tar Heels’ effort. Should be a heckuva game.

Nevada 30, No. 22 San Diego State 28

Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA.

9:30 PM CT

CBS Sports Network

Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Jenny Dell

SDSU by 3

Give me the Wolf Pack in a slight upset. They’re an excellent team at 7-2 with victories over Boise State on the road and @ Cal. Their coach, Jay Norvell, is a hot name in the coaching circles right now.

12 Responses

  1. Thanks for the previews and analysis DW! Agree with your comments on Auburn and Alabama. It’s time to give T.J. Finley an opportunity. Bo Nix is inconsistent. Alabama’s OL has had issues all season. Chris Owens is only 6’3. He’s too short to play offensive tackle. They moved him to center last week, and LSU was pushing Owens into the backfield throughout the game.

  2. What a plethora of games. Great comments on Bama and AU. I was hoping for improvement from both but they seemed to go backwards last week. Thanks for piece DW

  3. War Eagle and am in agreement.
    Go Lane. TN could make it interesting.
    NC State and Wake looks very interesting.
    Thank you.

  4. Thanks DW, another stellar breakdown! Anderson is a force and might be the best college football player in America. I hope the voters are as knowledgeable and astute as you are. You were way ahead of the pack on Devonta last year.

  5. DW great report. I think AU will have a tough day in general but agree that they can pull it out at home.
    I think Nix has a short leash this week.
    UGA and Bama win big. Interesting game in Oxford. So far neither team has won a game they weren’t expected to win and both have some key losses. PSU/Michigan will be interesting but I think PSU pulls it out.

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