Here are my top four teams for the playoffs right now. The committee may not agree, but this is what they should do in my opinion.
1. Alabama (9-1, 6-1 SEC West)
Wins at LSU, which is difficult no matter what kind of team they have and they had a lot of momentum and a ton of young talent coming into the game, and the win over then No.1 Mississippi State, a high quality opponent puts the Tide at the top of the rankings. The Tide has earned the top spot. Blake Sims is making clutch play after clutch play. Safety Nick Perry was all over the field on Saturday afternoon versus State with an interception tackle after tackle. The defense has reached its potential, and is playing at an extremely high level. Up next: Western Carolina @ home (3 PM CT/4PM ET on the SEC Network), Auburn @ home, Saturday, Nov. 29, @ 6:45 PM CT/ 7:45 PM ET on ESPN. The Tide controls its own destiny. Win out and they should be the No.1 seed in the playoff. If they beat Auburn, they will play in the SEC Championship game vs. Georgia or Missouri. Missouri has the lead in the East at 5-1. Georgia has finished its conference season at 6-2. Missouri plays @ Tennessee this Saturday (6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM ET on ESPN), then faces a rejuvenated Arkansas team @ home, Friday, Nov.28 @ 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET on CBS. Georgia has lost Todd Gurley for the season with a torn ACL, but freshman running back Sony Michel should be back either this Saturday for Charleston Southern (11 AM CT/Noon ET on the SEC Network), or a week from Saturday, Nov. 29, @ 11 AM CT/Noon ET vs. Georgia Tech @ home on the SEC Network. The Dawgs have a tough one against Tech. Georgia Tech is 9-2 and is trying to win the Coastal Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Duke is 4-2 and defeated Ga.Tech, so if Duke wins out, Duke will play FSU in the ACC Championship game. Duke has games remaining vs North Carolina this Thursday at 6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM ET on ESPN, and Saturday, Nov. 29, vs Wake Forest. Both are at home. So Tech is an interesting team and will give the Dawgs some problems. Interesting scenarios in the SEC East. For Bama it’s win out and they’re in the playoff. If Bama beats Western Carolina and Auburn and were to stumble against the East team, they could still make it in. Incredible stuff going on. Bama’s my top team right now.
2. Florida State (10-0, 7-1 ACC Atlantic)
A friend of mine called me Friday after I made my change in my pick from Florida State to Miami and said it was a very “bold” pick. Too bold as ti turned out. FSU just keeps getting it done. You can’t knock them for their on-field performance. You can for their off field performance, but you can’t question them on the field. When they need the big play, Jameis goes to super wide receiver Rashad Greene or super tight end Nick O’Leary and they’ll just get the job done every Saturday. With games versus Boston College and Florida at home, the Noles are in very good shape heading into the ACC Championship game in Charlotte versus Duke or Georgia Tech on Saturday, Dec.6th @ 6:45 or 7 PM CT/7:45 or 8 PM ET on ABC. I’m learning my lesson: don’t pick against the Noles, at least through the ACC Championship game, unless Duke or Georgia Tech could pull off a miracle. So the Noles are looking pretty primed to be in the playoff. But they’ll face some really good teams in the playoff if they make it there.
3. Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Pac 12 North)
Oregon does not have an easy path to the playoff, but they are certainly a playoff worthy team right now. They have games remaining versus Colorado at home and Nov.29th @ Oregon State in Corvallis (game time and network to be determined), one of the toughest places to play in the Pac-12 if not the country, to play. Just ask Arizona State, which very well could have gotten their playoff hopes derailed at Corvallis last Saturday, as they lost 35-27 to the Beavers. If Oregon loses at Corvallis, or, by chance, to Colorado (highly unlikely), they would still represent the North in the Pac-12 title game, so their hopes wouldn’t totally be dashed, because Stanford is second in the North at 3-4 , so there is no chance for Oregon not to represent the North in the title game, (Friday, Dec.5th @ 7 PM CT/8 PM ET on FOX). But they HAVE to win. Marcus Mariota is playing Heisman Trophy-winning football, though Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon really put himself right there with Mariota with a 408 yard, 4 TD performance against Nebraska in a 59-24 Wisconsin victory. So Mariota has his work cut out, and, more importantly, his team does. If Oregon gets by Colorado, which they should, it will be huge in Corvallis on Nov. 29th. If they can get through those two, they will play the winner of the South Division in the Pac-12 Championship. That’s a wild one in the South with USC leading the division at 6-2, and Arizona, Zona State and UCLA at 5-2. USC plays UCLA this Saturday @ the Rose Bowl @ 7 PM CT/8 PM ET on ABC, and Arizona plays Arizona State at Zona on Friday, Nov. 28 @ 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM on FOX. If UCLA beats USC @ home and then beats Stanford the following Friday @ home, UCLA will win the South. If USC wins out and Arizona State wins out, Arizona State will go by virtue of beating USC at SC earlier in the season on a Hail Mary pass at the end of the game. If Zona wins out and USC wins out, USC would get the nod. If Zona wins out and UCLA wins out, UCLA would win the South as UCLA beat Zona. As you can see there is a lot to be determined. It’s pretty convoluted, but that’s how it would shake out. If UCLA wins out, they go. Same for Arizona State. SC and Zona would need to win and get help. SC from Zona and Zona from UCLA.
4. TCU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12)
TCU did not have an overly impressive victory over Kansas Saturday, winning 34-30, but they won, and their re’sume’ is an impressive one with a victory at West Virginia, which was red hot at the time, and a blasting of Kansas State at home, 41-20. There may have a been a letdown against Kansas, and Kansas has been playing better after letting Charlie Weis go earlier in the season. And the game was on the road at Kansas. But the Horned Frogs have a tricky one a week from Thursday, Thanksgiving night, Nov. 27th, as they travel to Austin to face the suddenly resurgent Texas Longhorns. Texas has won three in a row with wins @ Texas Tech, @ home against West Virginia (33-16), and on the road @ Oklahoma State (28-7). Texas looks for real right now. Will be tough for TCU as the Longhorns would like nothing more than to wreck TCU’s season. The game is @ 6:30 PM CT/7:30 PM ET on FOX. It’s a must watch.
Numbers 5-12
5. Baylor (8-1, 5-1 Big 12)
Baylor is very close. With victories over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Kansas State all at home, the Bears would win the BIg 12, and would have a very good argument to get into the playoff as they beat TCU, 60-58, on Oct. 11th. So the committee would have a major decision to make. But the Bears still have work left as everybody else does, but if they win out, it could be very interesting. I’d go with TCU if they could beat Texas. To me that would be more quality wins, and Baylor’s victory over TCU was at home, and they were trailing by 21 points before rallying late in the fourth. I know Baylor won the head to head, but Baylor also lost to West Virginia in Morgantown the next Saturday, Oct. 18, 41-27, and TCU defeated West Virginia at Morgantown on Nov. 1, 31-30. That would be controversial, but I guess I give the nod to TCU. Still, that is to be determined by the committee and by me too.
6. Ohio State (9-1, 6-0 in Big Ten East)
An impressive victory over Michigan State @ East Lansing November 8th, 49-37, has vaulted the Buckeyes right back into the playoff conversation. Games left @ home against Indiana and Michigan. Looks like they’ll take care of business, but an early season loss to Virginia Tech, which, at the time, was playing well, and just got a very good road win over Duke. So it’s not as bad a loss as you’d think, but could possibly be costly for the Buckeyes. And Ohio State could very well face Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (indoors), so that’s no bargain either. With Melvin Gordon going off, Wisconsin is a dangerous team. So the Buckeyes have plenty of work left and they need some help.
7. Georgia (8-2, 6-2 SEC East)
Highly impressive blasting of Auburn between the hedges, 34-7, and looking more like a contender for the playoff. Todd Gurley unfortunately suffered a season ending torn ACL in his knee, but Nick Chubb is playing spectacular football, and Sony Michel, the Dawgs’ other freshman phenom, should be back very soon. And if Michel can’t make it back before the end of the season, Brendan Douglas is a pretty good option to give Chubb some breaks and tote the rock some too. He’s good too. Quarterback Hutson Mason is playing well now, the line is playing lights out, the wide receivers are excellent, and the defense is getting it done under stellar coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. Games left against Charleston Southern @ home and Georgia Tech @ home. Then, if Missouri stumbles @ Tennessee or @ home to Arkansas, Georgia has a shot to make it to the playoff if they can win the SEC championship game in Atlanta on Saturday, Dec. 6th (3 PM CT/4 PM ET on CBS).
8. Mississippi State (9-1, 5-1 SEC West)
Still not totally out of it. They have Vanderbilt @home and Ole Miss on the road. Ole Miss will be very difficult for the Bullies, so they have a tough road ahead of them. The Ole Miss game is Saturday, Nov.29th, @ 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET on CBS. They’re going to have to win out and get some help from Auburn.
Other teams in consideration
9. UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12 South)
10. Missouri (8-2, 5-1 SEC East)
Win out and they win the East. If they lose to either Tennessee on the road or Arkansas at home, Georgia would overtake them as the Dawgs beat them head to head. If they win out and win SEC title game, they could have a pretty good argument to at least be considered for the playoff. Two SEC teams is not out of the question. Could be Alabama, Georgia or Alabama, Missouri. If one of these two East teams were to win out and beat Alabama in the title game if Bama can get by Auburn, they can make the playoff along with Alabama.
11. Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1 Big 10 West)
The Badgers have to win out and get a lot of help. Games left @ Iowa and home vs Minnesota. Not easy. Iowa is 7-3 overall, so they’re not total pushovers. If Minnesota beats Nebraska this weekend @ Nebraska, the Wisconsin-Minnesota game would be for the Big Ten West title. That is scheduled for the Big Ten network on 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET on Saturday, Nov. 29th. Nebraska is not totally out of it, but would need to beat Minnesota this weekend and hope Wisconsin loses twice.
12. Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 Pac 12 South)
Going to need to win out (Washington State @ home, @ Arizona, 2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET, Friday, Nov. 28th, on FOX) and get some help from USC over UCLA to get to the Pac 12 title game and make a case for themselves. Of course they’d have to beat Oregon in the Pac 12 title game to be considered, so they have a ton of work left.
Other teams that are relevant:
2 Responses
What is the injury situation w/ T.J. Yeldon? Perhaps, he should bring his megaphone on field rather than his helmet and cheerlead. Would have to be coach directive, as a player he will suit up and give it his all under almost all conditions. Achieving 125 yards by half and succumb to injury (Gurley) will do nothing to further the opportunity of a championship in the West, SEC, or National. Thoughts of a rest.
Yeldon seems fine. Thanks.