Week 5 College Football features some Blockbustuhs

The No.2 Crimson Tide squares off with the No.20 Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday afternoon at 2:30 CT at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. The Tide is coming off a 55-3 shellacking of Vanderbilt last Saturday Night in Tuscaloosa, while the Hogs are coming off a frustrating 23-21 defeat at the hands of Texas A&M at Jerry World last Saturday Night, a game in which Arkansas kicker Cam Little missed a 42 yard field goal with a minute and a half left in the game hitting the top of the right crossbar. College kickers aren’t reliable players. Now Will Reichard, he’s reliable and could be a difference maker for the Tide Saturday if they’re in an SEC slugfest at Ark.

Auburn’s season almost turned more disastrous last Saturday. But thanks to a missed 26 yard field goal by Missouri kicker Harrison Mevis (and Butthead) at the end of regulation, and a fumble in the end zone by running back Nathaniel Peat in overtime, the Auburn Tigers prevailed, 17-14. Peat was inexplicably trying to reach the ball over the goal line from the 1 1/2 yard line. Auburn recovered, and escaped with the W. They host LSU in another pressure cooker game for Bryan Harsin. There are rumors going around that Harsin is already fired, and they could be true. But does Auburn really want to pay the guy $15 million if they fire him before December 31st? Really, Auburn trustees? Are you kiddin me? It’s a disaster right now down there and Harsin’s back is firmly against the wall with the firing squad loading their weapons. He’s not the right fit at Auburn. It Can work for him at Boise State, Utah State, or even a PAC-12 school like Arizona State. But he’s not an SEC coach, much like Derek Mason wasn’t, though that was at Vanderbilt where they don’t win at football much anyway. But Harsin is at a school that CAN win big and deserves better than this. They just haven’t had a good coach since Pat Dye. It would be improbable for Harsin to save his job, but winning over LSU would give him a slight lifeline.

There are some other stellar SEC collisions along with key national games. Let’s get to it.

Last Time

Straight Up, 22-2, Overall, 54-10, 84%

ATS, 17-7, 38-26, 59%

No.2 Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC) @ No. 20 Arkansas (3-1, 1-1)

Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville

2:30 PM CT

CBS

Brad, Gary, Jenny Dell

Tide by 17

The Crimson Tide has elite level players. Bryce Young on offense and Will Anderson on defense may be the two best players in the country. Some others are definitely elite level talents. But I’m not seeing an elite team, yet. Actually, I’m not seeing an elite team anywhere in the country. Just too much inconsistency. I’m not seeing a Georgia from 2021, an Alabama from 2020 with the three-pronged elite players Mac Jones, Heisman Trophy winner Devonta Smith and running back Najee Harris. Jones is struggling in New England in his second year, but I think it has more to do with coaching than any other factor. Jones can be elite with proper coaching. Bill Belichick has his former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as Jones’ offensive coordinator. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. Patricia had a failed tenure as head coach of the Detroit Lions recently, and doesn’t look like the answer at New England. I don’t know if Belichick is any more, either. He hasn’t done anything since Tom Brady and his 6 Super Bowl rings he won for Belichick left. Jones suffered a high ankle sprain last Sunday against the Ravens and looks out for 4-6 weeks at least. But he’s got a shot to be great if he gets good coaching. Devonta is tearing it up in Philly this season. He made two historically superb receptions last Sunday for the Eagles in their 24-8 victory over the Washington Commanders. That could be interpreted as hyperbole, but if you watched the video, it really isn’t. On his first catch, he leapt extremely high over the Commanders’ cornerback at their 1 yard line, pulled in the pass with his right hand, then got undercut, fell to his back and held onto the ball. It was a good as it gets. He then caught a one yard TD pass from Jalen Hurts that was almost as spectacular. The Eagles are 3-0 and they and DeVonta are cookin. Najee is having a solid season for the Steelers, though I don’t see Mike Tomlin taking the Steelers back to an elite level. They’ve just gotten stale under him even in Ben Roethlisberger’s final years. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Najee are huge pieces to the team though. They have quarterback issues and may have to turn to rookie Kenny Pickett, a homegrown product out of the University of Pittsburgh. He could salvage the Steelers’ season. There is plenty of talent on the team. They are 1-2 right now, as are the Patriots. Tua Tagovailoa is having a resurgence in Miami under first year coach Mike McDaniel. He’s getting a lot of help from former Crimson Tide superstar Jaylen Waddle and all pro WR Tyreek Hill, who came over from the 2020 Super Bowl winning Kansas City Chiefs, a team he was a major part of. So Tua has two of the best receivers in the NFL to throw to. So, he has a lot of help. He and his team are @ the Bengals tonight at 7:15 on Amazon Prime. Should be a classic. It’ll be a real test for Tua against Joe Burrow and the returning Super Bowl representative from the AFC, Cincinnati, which is desperate for a victory as they are 1-2.

So the 2021 Dawgs were elite, and the Tide could have been except for injuries to John Metchie III and Jameson Williams and a couple of cornerbacks. The Tide was elite in 2020, LSU and Joe Burrow were certainly elite in 2019, Clemson was in 2018, Alabama was in 2017, Clemson was again in 2016, Bama was again in 2015, and Ohio State was in 2014. So, in the playoff era, there have always been elite teams that have won it all. But the last two years, I’ve seen a lot of inconsistency in teams. There ARE teams that have a shot to be elite this season though. The Crimson Tide is certainly one of them. No.1 Georgia is another, and No.3 Ohio State has a shot. Teams like Clemson, USC and Michigan show possibilities for greatness, but I’m not there with those 3 yet. More with Clemson and USC than Michigan. Michigan hasn’t played anybody substantial, though Maryland and Taulia Tagovailoa gave them a highly competitive game last Saturday at Ann Arbor with Michigan surviving 34-27. Taulia can be elite himself. Just needs to be more consistent. I’m not seeing any bona fide eliteness yet, though those teams listed above have a shot.

So to this game against the Hogs. Bryce Young has completed 83 of 121 passes, 69%, for 1,029 yards with 13 TDs against 2 ints. Jase McClellan is showing some elite ability having rushed for 245 yards and 2 TDs and is averaging 8.4 yards per carry. I’m high on Jahmyr Gibbs as well. His ceiling is quite high. He’s rushed for 172 yards, averaging 6.9 per carry with a pair of 6’s. Bryce has shown a real ability to run this season adding to his incredible versatility. The receivers are still developing, but the numbers are pretty decent. Traeshon Holden has caught 4 TDs. Gibbs, an excellent receiver out of the backfield, has caught 3 TDs. And Ja’Corey Brooks has added 2 TDs. Jermaine Burton has 2 TD receptions as does McClellan. So the body of work is not too shabby. And JoJo Earle and Louisville transfer Tyler Harrell, who are potentially elite talents, are coming back sooner rather than later. The Tide feasted on the inexplicable soft coverage by Vanderbilt last Saturday. The players are very young there, but there was a complete lack of coaching by Clark Lea and his staff last week. They were overwhelmed, which was expected. Will Anderson has 4 1/2 sacks this season and a fumble recovery for a TD. So great stuff from him and the defense. This defense can be an elite unit. Will Reichard is an elite kicker and I know Crimson Tide fans are thrilled about that.

But Arkansas poses a tremendous challenge Saturday. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson, all 6’6”, 255 of him, has completed 67 of 97 passes, 69%, for 941 yards, 8 TDs against 1 int. Raheim Sanders leads the SEC and is 4th nationally with 508 rushing yards and has chipped in 3 TDs. Jefferson has rushed for 4 TDs. There is no excuse for the Hogs losing to A&M last Saturday Night. They were up 14-7 and driving for another score when Jefferson was stripped for an 82 yard fumble return for a TD by A&M safety Demani Richardson, which turned the tables in the game. The Hogs should have prevailed, but A&M won it and you can’t take that away from’em.

I like this to be a close, hard fought, SEC slugfest. Give me the Tide to survive Fayetteville.

Alabama 28, Arkansas 24

LSU (3-1, 1-0) @ Auburn (3-1, 1-0)

Jordan-Hare Stadium

6 PM CT

ESPN

Tess, Gregory, Katie

LSU Tiguhs by 8

I like this game to be closer than anticipated. Auburn has major issues no doubt. Major issues. But being in Jordan-Hare on a Saturday Night is a factor and this game is always an SEC collision. Expecting the same this time around.

LSU 21, Auburn 17

No.7 Kentucky (4-0, 1-0) @ No.14 Ole Miss (4-0)

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford

11 AM CT

ESPN

Sean, Todd, Molly, McShay

Ole Miss by 7

Kentucky gets running back Chris Rodriguez back from a DUI suspension. It’s his first game back this season after rushing for 1,300+ yards and 10 TDs last season. That’s a factor. But Ole Miss is really running it well this season. Quinshon Judkins has rushed for 429 yards and 5 TDs, and TCU 5 star transfer Zach Evans has added 365 and 4 TDs. They’re an electric tandem. Rebs QB Jaxson Dart is doing a pretty decent job under center completing 62 percent of his passes for 897 with 5 TDs against 2 ints. He’s also rushed for 201 yards, averaging 6.9 per carry. Judkins averages 6.1 and Evans is at 6.2. Wildcats quarterback Will Levis can be prolific at times, but has a tendency to throw untimely interceptions. He’s passed for 10 TDs against 4 ints this year. Overall, he’s solid and sometimes spectacular. But I like the Rebs at home in this one. Lane keeps it cookin. Mark Stoops does a phenomenal job in Lexington and his team should have another stellar season.

Ole Miss 31, Kentucky 23

No.1 Georgia @ Missouri

Faurot Field, Columbia, MO.

6:30 PM CT

SEC Network

Tom, Jrodg, Cole

Dawgs by 28

I know I said kill against Samford a couple of weeks ago, and it wasn’t, and it wasn’t last Saturday against Kent State, but I’ll go back to the well. Kill.

Georgia 45, Missouri 10

No. 17 Texas A&M @ Mississippi State

Davis Wade Stadium, Starkvegas

3 PM CT

SEC Network

Bulies by 4

I like Will Rogers and the Bullies here. A&M’s star wide receiver Ainias Smith is out for the season with a broken leg.

Mississippi State 28, A&M 21

Sunday

Florida 38, Eastern Washington 3

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville

11 AM CT

ESPN+

Florida by 30

Really feeling the state of Florida’s pain after the horrific near Category 5 Hurricane Ian that struck yesterday in the Fort Myers and Naples areas of Southwestern Florida. Thoughts and prayers go out to the state of Florida. Hoping for a healthy recovery from this tragedy.

Tonight

South Carolina 42, South Carolina State 3

6 CT

SEC Network

Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, Andraya Carter

SC by 38

South Carolina gets in their game before the remnants of Ian come their way. Hoping this thing will dissipate and cause no more issues.

Saturday

No.5 Clemson 34, No. 10 NC State 31

Memorial Stadium, Clemson

6:30 PM CT

ABC

Chris, Kirk, Holly

Clemson by 7

I’m expecting Clemson to get by against a highly formidable opponent. The Clemson secondary got torched by Wake quarterback Sam Hartman last Saturday to the tune of 6 TDs in a 51-45 2 OT Clemson victory. Quarterback DJ Ulagalelei did step it up also with 5 TD passes of his own.

No.3 Ohio State 42, Rutgers 14

Ohio Stadium, Columbus

2:30 PM CT

Big Ten Network

Buckeyes by 39 1/2

The Buckeyes keep getting better and better.

No. 6 USC 48, Arizona State 20

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

9:30 PM CT

ESPN

Dave Flemming, Rod, Tiffany Blackmon

USC by 25

I’m a believer in Lincoln Riley’s coaching ability. The question is, has he turned around the Men from Troy into an elite team that can make the playoff in his first year? Need a larger sample size, but he’s brought in super talent on offense through the transfer portal.

Oklahoma 38, TCU 31

Amon G, Carter Stadium, Fort Worth

11 AM CT

ABC

Mark, RGIII, Quint

OU by 6 1/2

My daughter is not going to be happy with me, but as a friend of mine told me, “You gotta be a professional.” Sorry, Sweetie. Expecting a heckuva game though.

UAB 34, Rice 31

Rice Stadium, Houston

6:30 PM CT

ESPN+

UAB by 10

UAB is a tough team to figure out this year as well. I’ll take’em slightly. Rice gave Houston everything it wanted on the road last Saturday losing 34-27.

No.4 Michigan 28, Iowa 14

Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

11 AM CT

FOX

Gus, Joel, Jenny

Michigan by 11

Probably a yawner of a game.

No.11 Penn State 41, Northwestern 10

Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA.

2:30 PM CT

ESPN

Bob Wischusen, Dan Orlovsky, Kris Budden

Nittany Lions by 26 1/2

Penn State looks legit to me.

No.23 Florida State 35, No.22 Wake Forest 34

Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee

2:30 PM CT

ABC

Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Lugues

FSU by 7

Expecting a classic here. Tallahassee looks to have made out OK from Ian.

No.16 Baylor 30, No.9 Oklahoma State 27

McLane Stadium, Waco

2:30 PM CT

FOX

Jason Benetti, Brock

Baylor by 2

Another classic, this one in the Big 12.

No.25 Kansas State 30, Texas Tech 20

Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS.

11 AM CT

Big 12/ESPN+

K State by 8

I’m getting pretty bullish on this K State squad. Texas Tech posted a major victory over Texas last Saturday at home, but their coach is doing some chirping right now. That’ll cost you.

No.21 Minnesota 34, Purdue 20

Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis

11 AM CT

ESPN2

Anish Shroff, Brock Osweiler, Taylor McGregor

Golden Gophers by 12

Getting bullish on P.J. Fleck’s squad as well. Row the boat.

Texas 38, West Virginia 35

DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin

6:30 PM CT

Fox Sports 1

Horns by 9

The Mountaineers give Sark and the Horns everything they want.

Friday

Tulane 31, Houston 28

TDECU Stadium, Rocket City

6 PM CT

ESPN

Houston by 2 1/2

Beth Mowins, Kirk “Moon Dance” Morrison, Stormy Buonantony?

The Green Wave went to K State two weeks ago and won 17-10. Give me the upset

Friday

No.15 Washington 34, UCLA 31

Rose Bowl, L.A.

9:30 PM CT

ESPN

Roy, Andre, Carc

Huskies by 2 1/2

Give me the Huskies to keep their excellent undefeated season going.

Tonight

BYU 45, Utah State 14

LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah

7 PM CT

ESPN

Matt Barrie, Louis Riddick, Harry Lyles Jr.

BYU by 24 1/2

The Cougars are awfully good at home.

16 Responses

  1. Love the Beavis and Butthead comment on Mizzou’s kicker. I like you think the Bama game will be tight. My upset special is the Wolfpack of NC ST to take Clemson down. I think LSU will beat AU and Harsin will be gone. Thanks for the preview DW.

  2. Hope you had a great trip DW. Agree 100% on the no elite team this year. Bama is about to commence on a gauntlet of 4 straight formidable foes before an off week. I doubt they can make it through unscathed.

  3. The Arkansas Razorback contest is a trap game for certain for the Tide. I remember only a few years back the Tide went on the road to play the Razorbacks. The Tide was favored by 22 or more, my memory can fail me on that line, but Arkansas had to miss an extra point attempt for the Tide to win 14 to 13. The Crimson Tide must have their game faces on. Possible upset looming. Hope I am wrong!

  4. Thanks, SMU. Yes, good memory on that game. October 11th, 2014. 14-13 Crimson Tide in Fayetteville. Bret Bielema was Ark’s coach. He got fired after going 4-8, 1-7 in 2017, but had some decent teams before that. He’s now in his second season at Illinois as head coach. He went 5-7 overall and 4-5 in Big Ten last year, and is 3-1 and 0-1 this year. He’s defeated UVA, 24-3, and Wyoming, 38-6, along with Chattanooga, 31-0, last Thursday Night. He lost to Indiana, 23-20, on the road Friday, 9/2/22. He’s had OK results as a coach. Thanks a lot.

  5. Thanks for the previews and analysis DW! Davonta Smith had an incredible game last week. Philadelphia, with Devonta and AJ Brown, has the best receiving corps in the NFL. Auburn’s 2023 recruiting class is currently last in the SEC and ranked 53 nationally. Harsin’s lack of job security is impeding the Tigers ability to recruit. Agree with you picks for this weeks games.

  6. It’s a tough call between Smith/Brown and Waddle/Hill, T. You’re right, Smith/Brown are also highly formidable. Let’s see how the next 2 weeks "matriculate" and then make a decision. Thanks a lot.

  7. Some close scores for some upcoming exciting games. Hopefully the Auburn prediction is the other war around. Yes recruiting is also not there,,what a mess. Definitely some very good SEC contests, Miss State beating A&M and Ol Miss and Kentucky. Throw in the Noles and I like your picks! (Never dislike them)
    Thank you.

  8. These picks look solid, DW. Would love to see Auburn pull off the upset but have to be realistic. When we get Lane Kiffin wearing orange and blue down on the Plains, we will see improvement! 🙌
    Until then, it looks like an awesome day of football. Might not leave the sofa for 12 hours.
    See you soon! JBC

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