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August 8, 2012

The 94th PGA at Kiawah Island, South Carolina: Who will hoist the Wanamaker?

The Pete Dye-designed Kiawah Island course will be playing 7,676 yards with a ton of wind. The weather forecast for the next four days calls for a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms at some point all four days. If the players get a break on the wind, -10 to -12 will win it. If not, and there will be plenty of wind on this course on many holes, the winning score will be around five or six subzero. There are some amazing holes on this course which famously hosted the “War on the Shore” back in 1991, the famed Ryder Cup match between the U.S. and Europe in which Bernhard Langer had a six-foot putt to win or lose it for the European on the last hole of the entire Cup competition. He missed in a classic duel which brought the Cup back to the U.S. after it had lost it the previous three times to the Europeans.
The holes are terrific and several are extremely difficult.

The first three holes are a little more forgiving and are a chance for the players to do some scoring. The fourth is a bear. A four hundred fifty-eight yard par-four which is rated the toughest hole on the outward nine. The second shot could be anywhere from an eight iron all the way to a rescue club depending on the wind.

The ninth looks very challenging. Dye is a master, according to what I’ve seen and heard, of deception, and there is a sand area on the ninth that fools you on its location. The ninth is a 494-yard par four. Very difficult. Deep waste areas on both sides of the green. If you miss the green, the up and down is very difficult. The longer hitters will fare better on nine.

The final five holes are along the beach and will determine the champion. The key holes may very well be 16 and 17. No. 16 is a 581-yard par five. Again, the longer hitters are in better shape here. The drive is over a pond to a terraced fairway. Two waste bunkers guard each side of the green, one a long shallow one on the right, and another deep one on the left. The players ARE allowed to ground their clubs in the sand  this year. The PGA didn’t say it was due to the Dustin Johnson debacle two years ago at Whistling Straits, but it seems like a reaction to that disaster for Dustin and what seemed like the unfairness of that ruling.  No.16 will test the golfers mettle and resolve. The 17th is a 223-yard par three that is famous or infamous to Mark Calcavecchia for his drive in the water during one of the pivotal matches in the Cup in ’91. Calc went on to lose the match and thought he had lost the Cup for the U.S. until Langher missed his putt against Hale Irwin. There is water guarding the right side of the green and a deep waste area to the left. Players who go even par throughout the four days on 17 will have a shot at hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy.

The 18th is a par-four, 501 yards, and should be a classic and challenging finishing hole for the players. The 18th, particularly in the way majors have gone lately, will also have a huge impact on the outcome of the PGA. The wind should be howling some on 18 and add extra pressure to the players and their caddies on club selection. The wind will determine if the players hit their second shot, which should be around 200 yards, at the pin or at the middle of the green. Could be a birdie hole if the wind is not blowing. But most likely, it will be.

Here are the seven guys in descending order, with No.1 being the guy whom I think will win, who have a shot at winning the 94th PGA.

7. Justin Rose: Leading the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and very competitive on the PGA tour. Nice ball striker and pretty long. Length is a key on this course. Good all around game.

6.Rory McIlroy: Rory played well in the last two days at Firestone and has the length to win it. Think he’ll be in the hunt come Sunday if he can putt well.

5. Phil Mickelson: Just expect Phil to play well at this major. He works so hard at it and is still a highly talented player north of 40. Got good length and a great chipper which really helps on this course. Phil has struggled with his putter at times. But if he putts well, he has a shot.

4. Tiger Woods: Couldn’t leave Tiger out. Has worked pretty hard lately and had a good Sunday at Bridgestone. Struggling with his putter some, but hitting it very well and still got a lot of length (300+) on his driver. A lot of people are picking him. He’ll be in the hunt, but I’m not picking him to win it.

3. Jason Dufner: Another guy quite a few people are picking. Tremendous ball striker with pretty good length at 295 average off the tee. The former Auburn player has really made a name for himself starting last year at the PGA and this year with two wins on the tour (the Zurich Classic in New Ahlins and the Byron Nelson in Fort Worth). The thing that may hold him back here is his putter. He’s obviously a good putter–he wouldn’t be on the tour if he wasn’t–but he’s not a great putter. Think that will keep him from winning. But he’s certainly got the ball striking ability.

2. Louis Oosthulzen: Louis has a great shot. Hit a 440-yard drive on the 16th at Firestone last week. That ball just kept rolling and rolling and rolling. He had a seven iron in on the 627-yard, par five off that drive. He’s got incredible length for a guy who’s not big at all. He’s accurate too, and he’s a very good putter. He’s excellent in his wedge game. See Louis with a real shot.

The winner:

Keegan Bradley: He won last week at Firestone and a lot of people say you can’t do it two weeks in a row, but Phil did it in 2006 at the then– Bellsouth Classic and at the Masters the next week, so there is precedent for it. I love this guy. He is a flat out competitor and amazingly clutch. He hits it a mile, he’s accurate in his long game and in his approach shots and he’s a tremendous putter, particularly when it counts. This guy has the iron mentality to do it. I’m going with Keegan to win his second PGA in a row and cement his status as an elite guy along with Phil and Ernie. Not to Tiger standards or any of the Faldo, Watson, Jack or Seve standards yet, but could in the future if he keeps this up. Like Keegan to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.

Clemson: The AU opener, Sept. 1

(Kiehl Frazier, left)
 

Game will be on ESPN at 7 PM ET/6 CT in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome. Should be a classic. The Tigers are looking for some redemption after last year’s 38-24 loss at Clemson. Taj Boyd, the Clemson quarterback, was 30-of-42 last year against the Tigers for 386 yards and four TDs. He had a passing efficiency rating of 180.1. He played out of his mind. He’s capable, but can make the mistake or two that at times can be costly for his team. He was 298-499 (59%) for 3,828 yards with 33 TDs and 12 ints last year. He’s a player, but he can make a mistake is error prone at times. Running back Andre Ellington ran for 1,178 yards last year and 11 TDs. He’s a mixture of power and speed. Now their wide receiving corps is where they are really dangerous even though they suffered a big blow after the spring. Sammy Watkins, their all-world receiver last year as a freshman (82 catches-1,219 yards, 12 TDs), has been suspended for the first two games of the season, which will hamper Clemson against AU. Watkins was arrested on drug charges and Dabo Sweeney said at the time that it was up to Watkins on whether he would get “the high end or the low end” of a punishment. He got the low end, but will not play against Auburn. But they do have some other excellent receivers. DeAndre Hopkins caught 72 passes for 978 yards and five TDs last year. He will be one of their go-to guys on the perimeter. He looked outstanding in the spring. Another guy who looks like he’ll be a stud for them this year is Martavis Bryant. He only caught nine passes for two touchdowns last year, but he was terrific in the spring game. He’s tall at 6’5″ and very athletic and strong. Looks to be a solid 200. Another guy who stands out to me is Charone Peake. He only had four catches last year, but looked great in the spring game as well. weapon Tight end Brandon Ford is another weapon in the passing game. Stellar pass catcher who looks like he’ll be an excellent replacement for the graduated Dwayne Allen.

Offensive line looks pretty decent. 300 pounders pretty much across the front. Left guard Kalon Davis (6’5″, 335), and left tackle Brandon Thomas (6’3″, 300) look like their best players on the oline. Their center, Dalton Freeman (6’5″, 285), is a good player too. Not great, but fairly solid. AU’s talented dline could have a good day against the Clemson offensive front.

Their defense looks like an SEC defense in a lot of ways. Clemson and Florida State are the two closest teams to SEC caliber, particularly on defense. The Clemson defense got scorched by West Virginia for 70 points last year in a 70-33 loss at the Orange Bowl. That led to the firing of Kevin Steele and the hiring of Brent Venables, the longtime defensive coordinator for Oklahoma. Clemson should be a better on defense under Venables. He did a good job at OU coaching some very solid defenses. There are some good players on the defensive front. Senior Malliciah Goodman, a 6’4″, 280 defensive end, is a load and he’ll be a big challenge for the Auburn tackles. He didn’t have a dominant year last year with 59 tackles, four tackles for loss, and two sacks, but he looked like he could be a dominant player this fall in the spring game. Vic Beasley, a 6’3″, 235 pound sophomore dend, will be another threat off the edge for the Auburn tackles to contend with. Greg Robinson (6’5″, 315 redshirt frosh) ,Patrick Miller (a four-star frosh who came in January and worked in spring ball, 6′,7″, 280), Jordan Diamond (a five-star frosh, 6’6″, 315), Avery Young (a five-star frosh, 6’6″, 292) or if John Sullen (6’5″, 336) is healthy, will draw those assignments for the Tigers at tackle. Shon Coleman is still trying to get back from leukemia, so he won’t be 100 percent ready and Eric Mack is still recovering from the tragic shooting in which he was injured and three Auburn players (a couple of former players and one on the roster) were killed. Clemson nose guard Grady Jarrett (6’0″, 295) and tackle DaShawn Williams (6’1″, 290) look like they could be very good and disruptive to center Reese Dismukes ( a player himself at 6’3″, 300) and the guards, one of which should be the highly touted Christian Westerman (6’4″, 300). They will have their hands full.

Spencer Shuey looks like a player at linebacker. He may not start though he should play a lot. Was really around the ball and had an interception in the spring game. Very athletic. Jonathan Willard, Quandon Christian and Stephone Anthony are listed as the starters. Didn’t see much from them in the spring. Liked lb Travis Blanks, an early enrollee as a freshman. The two guys in the secondary who stood out to me in the spring game were Jonathan Meeks, their strong safety, and Xavier Brewer, their free safety. Meeks had two ints and looks like the leader for the whole defense. Really a player. Brewer was very active as well. Their cornerbacks, Darius Robinson and Rashaud Breeland, also looked pretty good. Depth is decent back there.

Their kicking game is solid. Chandler Catanzaro looks like a solid field goal kicker and Bradley Pinion, a freshman, has a strong leg as a punter if he wins the job over senior Spencer Benton. Pinion is  talented.

Now that Watkins is suspended, they’ll have to find somebody to return kicks and punts. DeAndre Hopkins should be their kickoff return guy if that matters this year with  the kickoff moved up to the 35. Should be a lot of touchbacks. Martavis Bryant should return punts until Watkins returns in game three. They’re both dangerous players too.

 

Will be a highly competitive game in the Georgia Dome. Kiehl Frazier is my starter at quarterback. I know Chiz and Loeffler haven’t named the starter yet, but Frazier to me, looked excellent in the spring. Maybe Clint Moseley has come around, but based on last year, he’s not  the guy. Frazier threw well in the pocket in the spring and he can roll out and throw, and of course, he’s an excellent runner. But he was really good throwing the ball in the pocket in the spring. I like him a lot. He has really improved and looks ready for SEC competition and Clemson. Running back will be a strength of the team. I really liked Mike Blakely in the spring game, but Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb are excellent backs as well. Corey Grant has terrific speed and I’ve heard  good things about freshman Jovon Robinson. Trovon Reed looks like he’s ready to step up at receiver this fall and realize the huge potential the coaches thought he had coming in. Emory Blake will be tremendous and Lutz will be outstanding. I look for C.J. Uzomah and Jaylon Denson to make an impact. And maybe Travante Stallworth and DeAngelo Benton will become consistent. Sammy Coates is another. Quan Bray looks like a great athlete. Could be a key guy in the return game and on some reverses as well as catching the ball. He’s a weapon.

But it’ll be about Frazier and the Tigers’ defense. The dline is very talented, linebacker has talent if they get healthy, and I like the defensive backs even with the loss of Jonathan Rose, who was released from the team a couple of weeks ago.

This should be a thriller that will come down to the end. I say Kiehl Frazier and the AU defense get it done. A Cody Parkey field goal wins it.

AU 24, Clemson 21

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