The 125th U.S. Open Preview/Prediction

Does a 4 time LIV Tour winner in 2025 have a shot at Oakmont (Joaquin Niemann photo courtesy of Golf Digest).



The brutal Oakmont Country Club, 14 miles from downtown Pittsburgh, will host its 10th and the 125th edition of the United States Open. Scottie Scheffler and the course are the main storylines along with can anybody stick with Scheffler.

Oakmont is a 7,372 yard, Par 70 that will severely test the perseverance/mental toughness of the players. The rough is 5 inches high and extremely thick, so driving accuracy to the bentgrass fairways and approaches to the greens will be critical. There are 168 bunkers on the course, an average of 9 per hole. Once you get to the massive Poa Annua greens, they are stimping at over 14. The normal PGA greens stimp at 12, so these are historically fast greens. It’s going to be a beast for these players.

And who will challenge the seemingly unbeatable Scheffler? That is quite an undertaking though the talent from the PGA and LIV Tours are still through the roof good. Can Bryson DeChambeau, one of the ultimate grinders on either tour, go back to back at the Open. Joaquin Niemann has won 4 times on the LIV Tour and just won this past weekend at a LIV event in Virginia. Jon Rahm is definitely a threat. On the PGA side, Justin Thomas looks like he’s got a shot as he has his game back in order. Rory is struggling with a new driver as his former one was banned a couple of weeks ago, so he’ll have to figure it out. Collin Morikawa is long and accurate, so if he can putt, he’s got a shot. Ludvig Aberg is still ascending up the PGA ladder and looks primed for a breakout major championship victory. Here are the details that you need to know to get you set for this epic on Father’s Day weekend. Always a pleasure to watch on Father’s Day Sunday after a round.

Weather

Thursday: 88, Sunny, wind WSW 7 MPH.

Friday: 84, Partly Cloudy, 24% chance, SSE 5.

Saturday: 75, 63% chance of scattered t-storms. SSW 6.

Sunday: 79, 60% rain, scattered t-storms. SSE 6.

TV, ***All times Central***

Thursday: 5 A.M.-4 P.M. USA; 4-7 P.M. Peacock

Friday: 5:30 A.M.-12 P.M. Peacock; 12-6 P.M. NBC;6-7 P.M. Peacock.

Saturday: 9-11 A.M., USA; 11 A.M.-7 P.M. NBC

Sunday: 8-11 A.M. USA; 11 A.M.-6 P.M., NBC.

Key Odds

Scheffler, 3/1; DeChambeau, 8/1; Rahm, 12/1; McIlroy, 14/1; Xander Schauffele, 22/1; Aberg, 22/1; Morikawa, 25/1; Niemann, 28/1; Shane Lowry, 33/1; Sepp Straka, 35/1; Tommy Fleetwood, 40/1; JT, 40/1; Patrick Cantlay, 45/1; Corey Conners, 60/1; Vik Hovland, 60/1; Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; Russell Henley, 66/1; Ben Griffin, 70/1; Jordan Spieth, 70/1; Hideki, 70/1; Sam Burns, 70/1; Brooks Koepka, 70/1; Keegan Bradley, 75/1; Harris English, 80/1; Patrick Reed, 80/1; Daniel Berger, 90/1; Tony Finau, 90/1, Cameron Young, 90/1; Justin Rose, 90/1. Cam Smith, 100/1. Ryan Fox, 100/1.

So it’s a heckuva field and there are no guarantees for even the best of them all.

However

Winner

When Shohei Ohtani hits one of his 400+ feet mammoth shots out of Dodger Stadium or anywhere else, it’s a “no doubter.” While this field is spectacular and the talent immense, I’m going to take my “no doubter” player. Give me the greatness of the kid from Jersey by way of the University of Texas. I’ll take the 28 year old, who turns 29 on Saturday, June 21st. It’ll be a tremendous Father’s Day and early Birthday present for this superstar of the game. Give me the great one to make this U.S. Open, like many tournaments these days, as the Talking Heads once sang, “same as it ever was.”

Scottie

(Photo of Scottie Scheffler courtesy of the BBC).

Darkhorse

Tommy Fleetwood

14 Responses

  1. I think you are correct DW. I keep waiting for Scottie to crack but he doesn’t do it. He developing a Tiger aura. He is better than the vast competitors. Maybe a Dechambeau or Rahm type can run him down. WT

  2. Cannot argue at all with Scottie pick my longshot is Stephan Jaeger who has Tom Lovelady on the bag this week

  3. Thanks for the preview and predictions, DW! Oakmont is the ultimate test in golf. Scottie is a great pick!

  4. DW I cannot see a different winner. Sure someone could get hot but this course won’t yield a Johnny Miller 62. Sheffler is the man and the pick.
    Love to hear that T Love is looping this weekend. Hope his man does well. I saw an analytics expert who loved high swing speed guys and had Jaeger on his list of 12 possible winners.

  5. This seems like a done deal for Scottie. Love the Talking Heads reference! Scottie is going to ” run , run , run, run, run, run, run away” with this tournament!

  6. No doubt, Oakmont is and will be most challenging. I like Scottie for sure. This is going to be a great watch. Can’t wait. Thanks for the information.

  7. The U.S. Open will play like the old days. Tough- tough -most accurate driver in contention and Schefler fills that space. I will not count out the other 3 time winner this season in Roar. Throw out last week and don’t forget about 2024 winner BAD. Week after week Schefler out performs those two. Yes, BAD is on LIV, so difficult to measure until the majors. I like your pick for the win, but do not be surprised.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Latest & Greatest

Fresh Tweets:

Vanderbilt women’s tennis player Astra Sharma 1 on 1. https://t.co/D0WS0rVnqG @VandyMeg @mmhamlett @Vandywtennis @ManOfVandy @SkipPrince
May 18, 2017, 2:34 PM

Archives

Join My newsletter

I'll send you a brief email each time I post a new piece.