Tampa Bay 31, Green Bay 26

The Bucs relied on super play from Tom Brady in the first half including a 39 yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Scotty Miller with 7 seconds left in the first half, an amazing play by Brady and Miller, and an ultra bad breakdown by the Green Bay secondary. The Bucs defense played well and sacked Aaron Rodgers 3 times, had him scrambling all afternoon, and the Bucs secondary kept Rodgers and Davante Adams neutralized throughout the game. And there were 3 major mistakes that cost the Packers the game. Green Bay scored a touchdown to cut the Tampa Bay lead to 28-23 with 7 minutes left in the third quarter. Tampa led 28-10 at halftime, but the Packers scored quickly in the second half. Instead of kicking the extra point midway through the third quarter, Coach Matt LeFleur decided to go for 2. Rodgers threw a bullet to Equanimeous St. Brown, but the former Notre Dame player, dropped it inexplicably. The Packers were now down by 5, 28-23, and if the Bucs kicked a field goal, which they did later, the Packers would have had to score a TD and go for 2 again. The 2020 stats aren’t in on the percentage of success on 2 point conversions, but in 2019 and 2018, the success rate was 49%. Not that high of a percentage. I don’t agree with LeFleur forgoing the extra point. While ESPN wrote that its analytics agreed with LeFleur, sometimes you just need to use common sense and look ahead at how the scoring will go moving forward. Down 28-24, a TD and extra point puts the Packers ahead 31-28, instead of 29-28 with a TD and a 49% chance of a 2 point conversion. If you miss the 2 pointer, you’re ahead 29-28, and Tampa can kick a field goal and win. I don’t agree with chasing points too early. It seems to be what these younger coaches are doing now, and it’s not the right decision for their respective teams. LeFleur blew it there. That was the first mistake. The second mistake was made by Rodgers on 3rd and goal at the 8 yard line with Green Bay down, 31-26, with 3 minutes left in the game. Rodgers dropped back to pass, and had a wide open running lane to the end zone, but instead of running it in, he was right at the line of scrimmage and it looked to be clear sailing, he passed it right at the last second and overshot Adams in the end zone. That was on Rodgers. The third mistake was again made by LeFleur, who decided, inexplicably again, to kick a field goal instead of going for it on 4th down. Aaron Rodgers threw 48 TD passes in 2020, give him the ball, Matt. LeFleur is 41 and needs to learn quickly how to manage a game, particularly one as important as the NFC Championship Game. If he doesn’t, he’ll have to find employment elsewhere.

I picked the Packers, and put a lot of faith in Rodgers and felt good about it. But I knew I was in trouble when I watched a clip Friday Night of Stephen A. Smith going off on Aaron Rodgers being the greatest quarterback of all time. Smith had picked Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl earlier in the year, but when it came to picking against Rodgers and going with Brady and the Bucs, he went with Rodgers. He misses a lot predictions, so I knew it would be tough to win on Sunday. Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback of all time. I’ll go with that. There’s so much “greatest of all time” talk every week, that it gets old. Brady is going to his 10th Super Bowl in 20 years of playing in the NFL and he’s won 6. That’s better than anybody else who has played the game. So he is the best “quarterback” of all time, though Joe Montana was pretty spectacular as well. I become a victim to that best of all time stuff, too, so I’m going to try to do better in that department. It’s tiresome to hear that stuff.

The Bucs will face Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, and a machine like Chiefs’ offense, which blasted the Buffalo Bills, 38-24, in the AFC Championship Game, in Super Bowl LV. Mahomes is the present and future. And Brady is still the present and playing at an astonishingly high level. The game will be at Raymond James Stadium at 5:30 PM CT on CBS. Super Bowl 55 looks spectacular on paper. The Chiefs are a 3 point favorite after opening as a 2 point favorite. The gamblers are bullish on Mahomes and his exceptional offensive weapons. The Chiefs will be without star left tackle Eric Fisher, who suffered a torn ACL this past Sunday against Buffalo. They have a superb offensive line, but that’s somewhat of a factor. One of the best linemen in the NFL being out makes a difference. The Bucs have an excellent pass rush, so being without your left tackle is a factor.

Should be a riveting game. Can’t wait.

The Farmers Insurance Open Preview, Prediction

Torry Pines, San Diego

North Course, Thursday and Friday, 7,258 yards, Par 72. South Course, Thursday-Sunday, 7.765 yards, Par 72. The South Course is the longest course on Tour this year and will also host the 121st U.S, Open June 17-20th. NBC will televise the Open The defending champion is Bryson DeChambeau who won at Winged Foot in September. Also, the 85th edition of the Masters will commence on April 8th-11th with limited fans, but it’s still the Masters. The defending champion is Dustin Johnson, who won in November putting on a clinic. The 103rd PGA Championship will be held at the Ocean Course on Kiawah Island, S.C. May 20-23rd. These are all Thursday-Sunday majors. The defending champion at the PGA is Collin Morikawa who won at Harding Park in San Francisco. And the 149th Open Championship will be held July 15-18th at Royal St. George’s in England. Royal St. George’s was supposed to host in 2020, but the tournament was canceled due to COVID concerns. The 2019 champion was Shane Lowry, who won on his home turf at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. The Olympics are scheduled to be held July 29th-Aug 1st at Kasumigaseki Country Club in Saitama, Japan, but there is kind of a to be determined outlook with more virus concerns for Japan and a question of the viability of hosting the Olympics. Hopefully, by then, most of the world will be vaccinated and the games can go on as scheduled. Right now, it’s up in the air. The 43rd Ryder Cup will be held September 24-26th at Whistling Straits in Haven, Wisconsin, one of the more revered courses in the country that has hosted 3 PGA Championships in 2004, 2010 and 2015The winner in 2004 was Vijay Singh, the winner in 2010 was Martin Kaymer, and the winner in 2015 was Jason Day. The European team won in 2018 at Le Golf National just outside of Paris. They dominated the American team, 17 1/2-10 1/2. The U.S. captain is Steve Stricker and the European captain is Padraig Harrington. There will be 6 U.S. players who automatically qualify by virtue of winning points on 2019 and 2020 events as the Cup was supposed to be held in 2020, but was pushed back because of the pandemic. Additionally, there will be 6 Captain’s picks. It was 8 automatic qualifiers and 4 captain’s picks in the past, but has been changed for the 43rd Cup. For Europe, the leading 4 players on the Race to Dubai Points List from Sept. 2019 to September, 2020, automatically qualify. The next 5 players on the World Points list in the Official World Golf Rankings from Sept. 2019-Sept. 2020 automatically qualify. And Harrington will make 3 captain’s picks. Should be an epic as always. Europe really gets charged up for the Cup and the U.S. Team does, too.

So, a very captivating calendar year in golf. Should be remarkable.

Jon Rahm, the World Number 2, is the favorite in Vegas at +700 to win at Torrey Pines. Rahm won the Farmers in 2017. Rory is at +800, Xander Schauffele is at +1100. Interestingly, Xander, a San Diego native, has missed the cut 4 of the 5 times he’s played at the Farmers. Tony Finau is at +1600, Harris English, who won at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui three weeks ago, checks in at +2000. Other notables are Patrick Reed at +2200, Viktor Hovland at +3000, Jason Day, the 2018 winner, at +3300. Justin Rose won in 2019, but he’s playing on the European Tour this week. Billy Horschel is at +3300. Scottie Scheffler is at +3300. Si Woo Kim, who won last week at the American Express in La Quinta, CA, is also at +3300. Brooks Koepka is at +3500 and Sungjae Im is at +3500. Last year’s winner at Torrey, Marc Leisman, is at +4000. Other notables in the field are Adam Scott (+4000), Bubba Watson (+4500), Rickie Fowler (+6600) and Francisco Molinari (+6600). Jordan Spieth and Gary Woodland are at +8000.

The South Course has a series of tremendous holes. The 18th is a classic 570 yard, Par 5, that has featured its share of dramatics. Tiger Woods in the 2008 U.S, Open comes to mind. He sank a 10 foot birdie putt to send the Open into a playoff with Rocco Mediate on a Monday, the day after the final round. Woods won the 18 hole aggregate playoff for his 14th Major. He won his 15th at Augusta National in April of 2019. He’s out after having back surgery. No known timetable for his return, though I’m guessing by the Arnie in March, he should be good to go. He’s won 8 times at Torrey, so he’ll definitely miss playing there.

Weather has been sketchy in San Diego this week with a lot of wind and rain. Thursday, it’ll be 63 and Partly Sunny with winds at 11. Friday is 58 with a 100 percent chance of rain, could be heavy, with winds at 12. Saturday gets better at 61 and Sunny with winds at 9. Sunday is an awesome day, 65 and Sunny with winds at 8.

TV: Thursday-Friday, 2-6 PM CT, Golf Channel. Saturday, 12-2 PM CT, Golf. 2-5 PM CT, CBS. Sunday, 12-2 PM CT, Golf. 2-5:30 PM CT, CBS.

Prediction

I’m going to take the 21 year old stud from Simi Valley, California by way of Oklahoma State. This will be a bombers course among other things, while putting always matters too, and this young guy pounds it 320-330, even longer. He won the 3M Open in July of 2019 and finished second to Bryson D. at Winged Foot in the Open in Sept of 2020. Of course, Bryson put on a clinic and won by 6 strokes at -6. This guy had the 54 hole lead, but Bryson was not going to be denied. Bryson is hitting it 380 and had a 400 yard carry off the tee in practice last fall. That’s insane. But I like this guy to come through at Torrey and have a good shot at winning a major this year. He’s got all the tools in the toolbox to do that. Give me the Wolff Man at +3300.

Matthew Wolff

Darkhorse

I’m going to take the leader of the Korn Ferry Tour money list last year, the triple A of Professional Golf. Give me the 24 year old from San Francisco by way of Wake Forest. My older daughter might like this pick as she has been a Bay Area native for going on 4 years now.

Will Zalatoris

Winner at Omega Dubai Desert Classic at Emrites Golf Club in Dubai, United Arab Republic

Thursday-Sunday. Golf Channel will televise. Tonight 10 PM-3 AM CT, but also on tomorrow 5:30 AM-7:30 AM CT and 7:30 AM-10:30 AM CT. Friday, 1:30-7:30 AM CT and 7:30-10 AM CT. Saturday, 2:30-7 AM CT, might need to tape it,. Sunday, 2:30-7 AM CT. Tape job.

The field includes Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Collin Morikawa, and last week’s winner at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in the UAE and the 2020 Arnie winner, Tyrrell Hatton. Lee Westwood is also in the field as is Padraig Harrington, Shane Lowry, Danny Willett, Graeme McDowell, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Henrik Stenson and Martin Kaymer.

I’m going to take the 30 year old Brit in Dubai. Give me,

Tommy “with a Little English” Fleetwood

Friday’s Column

College Basketball intel with Alabama playing superbly and Auburn getting it together. A lot on our 2 state teams. The Crimson Tide is now No.9 in the country and is coming off a 70-59 victory over Kentucky last night at Coleman Coliseuim. Auburn defeated No. 12 Missouri 88-82 in the Jungle as elite freshman Sharife Cooper, who scored 28 last night and is averaging just over 22 per game, continues to dazzle and lift his teammates on his shoulders. More on both teams and a look at what I would call John Calipari’s underachieving resume on Friday.