Iron Bowl

 Auburn (8-3, 4-3 SEC) @ Alabama (10-1, 6-1)

Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa (101, 821)

6:45 PM CT/7:45 PM ET

ESPN

Brent, Jess, Maria

Weather: 58, Clear, wind S 6 MPH

Line: Bama by 9

Offense:

Bama:

The Tide will feature quarterback Blake Sims (187-301, 62%, 2,676 yards, 20 TDs, 4 ints, 5 rushing TDs), running backs T.J. Yeldon (758 yards, 6 TDs), Derrick Henry (682 yards, 7 TDs) and Tyren Jones (198 yards, 2 TDs) and wide receivers Amari Cooper (90-1,349, 11 TDs)  and DeAndrew White (30-319, 2 TDs). Injuries don’t look to be a problem overall. Cam Robinson will be back at left tackle; the offensive line will be in tact. ArDarius Stewart, who has emerged as a receiving threat for the Tide, could be questionable with a strained knee ligament as will tight end Brian Vogler, but the rest of the team looks good to go.

AU

Auburn is led by quarterback Nick Marshall (136-228, 60%, 1,859 yards, 15 TDs, 6 ints; 731 yards rushing, 11 TDs), running back Cameron Artis-Payne (252-1,405, 11 TDs), wide receivers Duke Williams (38-609, 5 TDs) , Sammie Coates (25-511, 2 TDs) and Quan Bray (30-334, 3 TDs). The offensive line is led by center Reese Dismukes. Auburn looks pretty  healthy on offense with the return of Williams at wide out.

Analysis:

Both teams have really good offenses, but Blake has been more consistent than Nick this year. If T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry combine for a good game, they can be more effective than Artis-Payne can against a rushing defense that allows only 84 yards per game on the ground. Lines are about a wash, though I might give a slight edge to the Tide with their overall consistency this year, particularly pass blocking. Amari Cooper is the ultimate weapon at wide receiver while Coates and Williams are elite athletes, as is Cooper, and Cooper’s been much more of a game changer than Coates and Williams this season.

Advantage: Tide

Defense:

Alabama is second in the country in scoring defense at 14.5 points allowed per game, second nationally in rushing defense at 84.5 yards allowed, 3rd in passing efficiency defense, 5th in total defense, allowing 283 total yards, and 39th in Red Zone defense. Alabama is tied for 69th nationally in turnover margin and tied for 74th in interceptions secured with 9. Auburn is 40th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 23.5 points per game, 38th in rushing defense, allowing 142.5 yards per game, 51st in passing efficiency defense, 52nd in total defense, allowing 375 yards per game, and third in the country in Red Zone defense. Auburn is tied for 41st nationally in turnover margin and is tied for eighth nationally in interceptions made with 16.

Alabama:Linebacker Reggie Ragland leads the Tide with 83 tackles and is tied second on the team with 8.5 tackles for loss behind Xzavier Dickson who has 9.5. Defensive end Jonathan Allen also has 8.5 TFL. Landon Collins is second on the team in tackles with 75 and leads the team in interceptions with three. Trey DePriest is third on the team in tackles with 64.

Auburn: Linebacker Casanova McKinzy leads the Tigers in tackles with 80, and also leads the team in tackles for loss with 10. Safety Jonathan Ford is second with 75 tackles and linebacker Kris Frost is third with 70 and eight tackles for loss. Jonathan Jones leads the team in interceptions with five.

Analysis:

While the Tigers defense can get turnovers and are good in the Red Zone, the Tide has come into its own on defense in the last two to three weeks and are playing pretty much lockdown right now. It’s going to be hard for AU to run the ball on the Tide. They’re going to have to do something through the air and that could work as the Tide secondary has been vulnerable at times this season. Auburn’s defense has been pretty questionable overall this season.

Advantage: Alabama

Special Teams:

Alabama has had problems with its kicker for the past four to five years, and this year is no exception. Adam Griffith is 12-of-18 on field goal attempts with a long of 47. He did hit a key one at the end of regulation in an overtime victory at LSU. He’s 5-of-6 from 20-29 yards, 3-of-5 from 30-39 yards, and 0-1 from 50 yards and over. Not bad, not great. He might be needed Saturday, so he’ll have to really home in on his kicks. J.K. Scott is an excellent punter averaging 46.8 yards on 43 punts. Christion Jones, Cyrus Jones and Landon Collins are handling punts and kickoff returns. Christion hasn’t been as prolific returning kicks and punts as  he was last year, but could be in store for a long one, even a house call on Saturday. Kick and punt coverage units for the Tide have done a very good job lately. Ruben Foster is a beast on kickoff coverage.;

Auburn

Daniel Carlson is 12-of-16 on field goal attempts. He’s 6-of-7 from 20-29 yards, 2-of-2 from 30-39, and 4-of-7 from 40-49 yards. His long is 46. Carlson also punts and has averaged 41.7 yards on 35 punts. Corey Grant returns kickoffs and averages 23.3 yards per kick return with a long of 32. Not Corey’s best this season, but he’s capable. Meanwhile, Quan Bray is averaging 18.1 yards per return and has made two house calls this year with his longest being a 76 yard return for a TD against La Tech in a game in which he lit it up accounting for three TDs for the Tigers. To go along with his punt return for a seven, Bray caught a couple of sevens, one for 44 yards and another for 37 yards. Kickoff and punt coverage teams are “naut baad” as  Hanz and Franz say to ARodg. “You’ll tank us latuh.”

 Advantage: Auburn

Final Analysis:

With all that data and advanced metrics information,  the Tide has the home field and what looks like the better football team this year. Rivalry games can be a little overrated. The team that has the better talent usually wins. I don’t see how the AU defense can stop  the Crimson Tide offensive attack, and the Alabama defense is rugged against the run so CAP and Nick are going to have some trouble running the ball. AU may use Grant and Roc Thomas some more to see if they can get some explosive plays and try Ricardo Louis on some jet sweeps though the Tide is tough on end arounds. Gus is going to throw out the kitchen sink offensively in this one, and AU will probably get some pretty good pass plays against the Tide secondary, which can be its Achilles Heel at times. But Alabama’s offense and a stout defense are going to be too much for the Tigers to overcome this year. The Crimson Tide clinches the SEC West title with a victory at home and head to Atlanta as they are getting closer to clinching a berth in the College Football Playoff.

Alabama 34, Auburn 21