The Pete Dye-designed Kiawah Island course will be playing 7,676 yards with a ton of wind. The weather forecast for the next four days calls for a 30-40 percent chance of thunderstorms at some point all four days. If the players get a break on the wind, -10 to -12 will win it. If not, and there will be plenty of wind on this course on many holes, the winning score will be around five or six subzero. There are some amazing holes on this course which famously hosted the “War on the Shore” back in 1991, the famed Ryder Cup match between the U.S. and Europe in which Bernhard Langer had a six-foot putt to win or lose it for the European on the last hole of the entire Cup competition. He missed in a classic duel which brought the Cup back to the U.S. after it had lost it the previous three times to the Europeans.
The holes are terrific and several are extremely difficult.
The first three holes are a little more forgiving and are a chance for the players to do some scoring. The fourth is a bear. A four hundred fifty-eight yard par-four which is rated the toughest hole on the outward nine. The second shot could be anywhere from an eight iron all the way to a rescue club depending on the wind.
The ninth looks very challenging. Dye is a master, according to what I’ve seen and heard, of deception, and there is a sand area on the ninth that fools you on its location. The ninth is a 494-yard par four. Very difficult. Deep waste areas on both sides of the green. If you miss the green, the up and down is very difficult. The longer hitters will fare better on nine.
The final five holes are along the beach and will determine the champion. The key holes may very well be 16 and 17. No. 16 is a 581-yard par five. Again, the longer hitters are in better shape here. The drive is over a pond to a terraced fairway. Two waste bunkers guard each side of the green, one a long shallow one on the right, and another deep one on the left. The players ARE allowed to ground their clubs in the sand this year. The PGA didn’t say it was due to the Dustin Johnson debacle two years ago at Whistling Straits, but it seems like a reaction to that disaster for Dustin and what seemed like the unfairness of that ruling. No.16 will test the golfers mettle and resolve. The 17th is a 223-yard par three that is famous or infamous to Mark Calcavecchia for his drive in the water during one of the pivotal matches in the Cup in ’91. Calc went on to lose the match and thought he had lost the Cup for the U.S. until Langher missed his putt against Hale Irwin. There is water guarding the right side of the green and a deep waste area to the left. Players who go even par throughout the four days on 17 will have a shot at hoisting the Wanamaker Trophy.
The 18th is a par-four, 501 yards, and should be a classic and challenging finishing hole for the players. The 18th, particularly in the way majors have gone lately, will also have a huge impact on the outcome of the PGA. The wind should be howling some on 18 and add extra pressure to the players and their caddies on club selection. The wind will determine if the players hit their second shot, which should be around 200 yards, at the pin or at the middle of the green. Could be a birdie hole if the wind is not blowing. But most likely, it will be.
Here are the seven guys in descending order, with No.1 being the guy whom I think will win, who have a shot at winning the 94th PGA.
7. Justin Rose: Leading the Race to Dubai on the European Tour and very competitive on the PGA tour. Nice ball striker and pretty long. Length is a key on this course. Good all around game.
6.Rory McIlroy: Rory played well in the last two days at Firestone and has the length to win it. Think he’ll be in the hunt come Sunday if he can putt well.
5. Phil Mickelson: Just expect Phil to play well at this major. He works so hard at it and is still a highly talented player north of 40. Got good length and a great chipper which really helps on this course. Phil has struggled with his putter at times. But if he putts well, he has a shot.
4. Tiger Woods: Couldn’t leave Tiger out. Has worked pretty hard lately and had a good Sunday at Bridgestone. Struggling with his putter some, but hitting it very well and still got a lot of length (300+) on his driver. A lot of people are picking him. He’ll be in the hunt, but I’m not picking him to win it.
3. Jason Dufner: Another guy quite a few people are picking. Tremendous ball striker with pretty good length at 295 average off the tee. The former Auburn player has really made a name for himself starting last year at the PGA and this year with two wins on the tour (the Zurich Classic in New Ahlins and the Byron Nelson in Fort Worth). The thing that may hold him back here is his putter. He’s obviously a good putter–he wouldn’t be on the tour if he wasn’t–but he’s not a great putter. Think that will keep him from winning. But he’s certainly got the ball striking ability.
2. Louis Oosthulzen: Louis has a great shot. Hit a 440-yard drive on the 16th at Firestone last week. That ball just kept rolling and rolling and rolling. He had a seven iron in on the 627-yard, par five off that drive. He’s got incredible length for a guy who’s not big at all. He’s accurate too, and he’s a very good putter. He’s excellent in his wedge game. See Louis with a real shot.
The winner:
Keegan Bradley: He won last week at Firestone and a lot of people say you can’t do it two weeks in a row, but Phil did it in 2006 at the then– Bellsouth Classic and at the Masters the next week, so there is precedent for it. I love this guy. He is a flat out competitor and amazingly clutch. He hits it a mile, he’s accurate in his long game and in his approach shots and he’s a tremendous putter, particularly when it counts. This guy has the iron mentality to do it. I’m going with Keegan to win his second PGA in a row and cement his status as an elite guy along with Phil and Ernie. Not to Tiger standards or any of the Faldo, Watson, Jack or Seve standards yet, but could in the future if he keeps this up. Like Keegan to hoist the Wanamaker Trophy on Sunday.