No. 13 Alabama vs. Auburn, Iron Bowl, Rivalry Week in Week 14, CFB
Thanksgiving is a time to, as the SAE’s at Vanderbilt used to say, “jam some eats.” You can get a round or two in and get some camaraderie in with friends, or go hunting and do the same. You can go to dinner with another couple or read a good book. Of course, you want to spend quality time with your wife, kids and grandkids if you are at that age. That’s an absolute. And you can absolutely watch some serious football. And it’s all in front of us right now as Rivalry Week is here with the season on the brink for many teams as playoff hopes ride on this weekend’s results.
Here’s how the playoff picture shapes up, according to the Committee:
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Oregon (11-0) 2. Ohio State (10-1)3. Texas (10-1) 4. Penn State (10-1) 5. Notre Dame (10-1) 6. Miami (10-1) 7. Georgia (9-2) 8. Tennessee (9-2) 9. SMU (10-1) 10. Indiana (10-1) 11. Boise State (10-1) 12. Clemson (9-2).
That’s cool. I know the great coaches don’t worry about this. Kirby Smart’s goal today is to have a good practice and defeat Georgia Tech in Clean Old Fashioned Hate on Friday. But sportswriters are built to project, so here’s what I think the rankings should look like. It’s a fluid ranking, but here’s what I got.
1. Oregon 2. Ohio State. and those are just based on what the committee would do, not that I’m sure those teams are going to be playing for the national championship. 3. Georgia 4. Texas 5. Tennessee 6. Notre Dame 7. Alabama 8. Ole Miss 9. South Carolina 10. SMU 11. Tulane 12. Arizona State.
That is based on strength of schedule and football judgment. Those are the top 12 teams in my opinion, and I believe in them 100 percent. Getting the best 12 teams is 100 percent the job, and those are the 12 teams that belong in the playoff in my opinion, as of today. As I said, it’s fluid. But those are the teams I like.
You’ve got to use strength of record, strength of schedule and football judgment. Those are THE 3 top criteria for picking the 12 best teams. While strength of record is critical, if they’re about equal amongst teams, strength of schedule and football judgment HAVE to matter. The SEC is the best conference in the country, and it’s not really close. I know Alabama fans are upset about the Crimson Tide’s performance last Saturday Night @Oklahoma, but OU played an awesome game, and that’s the way this season has gone. With the NIL and the transfer portal so entrenched in the system now, teams have become erratic with the lack of depth due to good backup players transferring to other schools if they don’t get the playing time they want or if a better financial offer is out there. That’s the landscape at present, unfortunately. I still think the Tide is one of the 12 best teams in the country, despite its inconsistency. Would I take Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina over Penn State, Clemson and Indiana? Darn right I would. All day. Boise State, too, for that matter.
The best players reside on the SEC. You’re telling me by watching these games that Penn State has better players than Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina? Penn State played Ole Miss in the Chick fil-A Bowl in Atlanta this past New Year’s Day and promptly lost 38-25. I could see the same thing happening this year if those teams were to meet. Ole Miss is a longshot at this point, and Bama is on the outside looking in, as is South Carolina. But those three teams are most definitely three of the top 12 teams in the country. The committee is going too much on record, and not valuing the quality of the team enough, if records are pretty similar. Their orders are to pick the 12 BEST teams. I like my rankings better, but I know it’s my football judgment, so it’s certainly debatable.
But there could be more upheaval this weekend, and the way it’s been going, I can see that happening.
Here’s this weekend’s slate along with predictions.
Last Week: SU- 12-6; Overall- 131-48, 73%. ATS: 9-9, 95-82, 54%
***All Rankings are Playoff Rankings; all times are Central; all games Saturday unless otherwise noted.***
Auburn (5-6, 3-5) @ No. 13 Alabama (8-3, 4-3)
Bryant-Denny Stadium, T-town, 101,821
2:30 PM CT
ABC
Sean, Gregory, Molly
Crimson Tide by 11 1/2
Auburn freshman linebacker Demarcus Riddick said on Monday that Jalen Milroe “is fast, but he’s not faster than me. He’s not getting out of that box this week.” He said about Ryan Williams, “I mean, yeah, he’s electric. But in my eyes, he ain’t really nobody to me. Ryan Williams is himself. He ain’t no big time player to me.” On the Crimson Tide’s 24-3 loss to Oklahoma, he said, “Seeing the results after that game, it was kind of like this team is really beatable. I was just telling the team, ‘Y’all don’t really take this team as this or that (whatever that means). They’re really beatable. We’ve got something to fight for.’ “ Going into this game I’m just going to be all out every time. Every rival team I’ve never lost to and I will not lose to Bama while I’m here.”
The freshman has posted 25 tackles this season, 10th on the team. Michael Casagrande of Al.com wrote that what Riddick said was “awesome.” I must disagree. The Tigers have been playing well lately, but that’s not what Coach Freeze is looking for out of his linebacker from Clanton going into a hostile environment.
Alabama 31, Auburn 14
Friday
Georgia Tech (7-4) @ No.7 Georgia (9-2)
Sanford Stadium, Athens
6:30 PM
ABC
Tess, Jess, Katie
Dawgs by 19 1/2
I like Georgia to take care of business and prepare for Texas or Texas A&M in Atlanta a week from Saturday, 12/7, in the SEC Championship Game at 3 PM CT on ABC with Chris, Kirk, and Holly on the call. Molly or Laura might join’em.
Georgia 34, Tech 14
No.3 Texas (10-1, 6-1) @ Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2)
Kyle Field, College Station
6:30 PM
ABC
Chris, Kirk, Holly
Longhorns by 5 1/2
A&M lost a tough one at Auburn when Mike Elko went brain dead and called a timeout with 15 seconds left with Auburn at the A&M 8 yard line and out of timeouts and looking like they were running a Chinese fire drill. With the Elko disastrous decision, Auburn was able to kick a game tying field goal at the end of regulation and send the game into overtime where they won in 4 OT’s, 43-41. The Longhorns are talented, but are they mentally tough enough to handle College Station on a Saturday Night? With Arch Manning, I think they would be. But not with Quinn Ewers I’m not buying Texas. I still think Texas makes the Playoff, but A&M makes it to the SEC Championship Game.
A&M 30, Texas 28
Other SEC scores
Friday
No. 14 Ole Miss 48, Mississippi State 17
Vuught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford
2:30 PM
ABC
Bob, Louis, Kris
Ole Miss by 26
After a tough loss in Gainesville, Lane and the Rebels keep their playoff hopes alive. Losing to LSU in Baton Rouge is nothing to be ashamed of even though the Crimson Tide dismantled the Bengal Tigers. Death Valley on a Saturday Night it Always tough. Ole Miss’s loss to Kentucky at home is a little harder to explain. But I chalk it up to life in the SEC. Ole Miss’s performance in its dismantling of Georgia proved to me that they belong in the playoff if they win this Saturday. I’m not in the Committee room, but that’s my football judgment with all things close to being equal with teams like Penn State, Indiana and Clemson
No.8 Tennessee 35, Vanderbilt 14
FirstBank Stadium, Smashville
11 AM
ABC
Dave, Dusty, Taylor McGregor
UT by 10 1/2
Tennessee has a ton to play for.
No. 15 South Carolina 27, No. 12 Clemson 24
Memorial Stadium, Clemson
11 AM
ESPN
Roy, Sam, Taylor Davis
Clemson by 2 1/2
Give me the Gamecocks all afternoon.
Florida 24, Florida State 21
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee
6 PM
ESPN2
Jay Alter, Rocky Boiman, Ashley Stroehlein
Florida by 14 1/2
After two huge victories at home over LSU and Ole Miss, respectively, the Gators have a little trouble in Tallahassee, but survive and build on that momentum for their bowl game and 2025.
No. 21 Missouri 30, Arkansas 24
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo.
2:30 PM
SEC Network
Missouri by 3
Brady Cook and Missouri finish off a nice regular season at 9-3 and 5-3. in the conference and get ready for their bowl game if they can get most of their players to play.
Oklahoma 21, LSU 20
Tiguh Stadium, Baaton Rouge
6 PM
ESPN
Tom, JRodg, Cole
LSU by 6
OU keeps its momentum going with an upset in Death Valley. Defense travels well. They won’t get to six wins, but there’s a lot of pride in beating Alabama and LSU on the road that they can carry over into the winter, spring and fall of 2025.
Kentucky 20, Louisville 17
Kroger Field, Lexignton
11 AM
SEC Network
Louisville by 4
The Wildcats pull it off at home.
National Predictions
No.2 Ohio State 28, Michigan 21
Ohio Stadium, Columbus
11 AM
FOX
Gus, Joel, Jenny
Ohio State by 21
Michigan plays well. Ryan Day is so caught up in how tough his team is. It’s over the top how obsessed the guy is with that. The guy’s so insecure about it. Maybe the reality is they aren’t.
No. 5 Notre Dame 35, USC 24
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
2:30 PM
CBS
Notre Dame by 7 1.2
On the opposing side of Day, Marcus Freeman does bring toughness to his Fighting Irish team. I’m starting to become more and more bullish on the Fighting Irish, though I’m not completely sold. I’ll give you a definitive answer after this game.
No.1 Oregon 24, Washington 17
Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR.
6:30 PM
NBC
Oregon by 19
Dan Lanning has definitely instilled toughness into his team, and they’re good for sure. I just think Washington gives them a challenging game. Next Saturday versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indy at 7 PM CT on FOX will be riveting. Can the Ducks beat the Buckeyes twice in one season? That’s what will be on the line along with playoff seedings in that blockbuster matchup.
Syracuse 38, No. 6 Miami 35
JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, New York
2:30 PM
ESPN
Canes by 11
The ‘Cuse pulls off the shocker and will toss Miami right out of the playoff.
No.9 SMU 31, Cal 30
Gerald R. Ford Stadium, Big D (Great President back in the day).
2:30 PM
ESPN2
Ponies by 12 1/2
Ponies have a tough one against a team that causes everybody problems, but survives and advances. I’m highly bullish on Rhett Lashlee’s team.
Thursday
No. 17 Tulane 31, Memphis 21
Yullman Stadium, N’Awlins
6:30 PM
ESPN
Green Wave by 13 1/2
Memphis is 9-2 and 5-2 in the American, just like Tulane is, so they’ll be pumped. Believe in my Green Wave though. They’ll play Army in the American Conference Championship Game next Friday Night (12/7) at 7 on ABC.
Saturday
No. 16 Arizona State 30, Arizona 28
Arizona Stadium, Tucson
2:30 PM
FOX
Zona State by 8 1/2
Dilly Willy and the Sun Devils survive and have a good shot to make the playoff. They’ve been impressive. They’ll play either Iowa State, BYU or Colorado in the Big 12 Championship Game at 11 AM CT Saturday, 12/7, @ AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. If Iowa State defeats Kansas State at home, it’ll be them. No guarantee of that. If they don’t, and the other two or one of the other two win, it’ll be a tiebreaker. None of the other three, Iowa State, Colorado or BYU, have played each other. If Arizona State loses and the other three win, it would be Iowa State versus BYU. If Iowa State loses and the others win, it would be Arizona State versus BYU. Deion and Colorado may be out of luck. That’s as far as I can go with this convoluted but exhilarating Big 12 sprint for their Championship and a most likely playoff berth; though not guaranteed. The top 5 ranked conference champions make the playoff. If Tulane and Boise State win out, and the Big 12 has chaos, the Big 12 is out of luck.It would be the SEC Champion, the Big Ten Champion, the ACC Champion, though that’s not guaranteed either, or the Big 12 champion and Boise State or Tulane if each team wins out. Tulane, if it wins out, could supersede the Big 12 champ if there is chaos this weekend and next.
No. 10 Indiana 34, Purdue 14
Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
6 PM
Fox Sports 1
Indiana by 29
Indiana’s strength of schedule is not good enough for me, but they’ll probably get in. The committee will have to reverse course and I don’t see that happening. It’s too political.
No.4 Penn State 35, Maryland 28
Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA.
2:30 PM
Big Ten Network
Penn State by 24 1/2
Penn State will probably get in, but not buying them.
Friday
No. 11 Boise State 41, Oregon State 31
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
11 AM
FOX
Boise State by 19
Like the Broncos to prevail and have a shot at punching its ticket into the playoff. They’ll be in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game @ home @Albertsons Stadium next Friday Night at 7 on FOX against either Colorado State or UNLV. If both Colorado State and UNLV win, UNLV will advance because while they haven’t played each other this season, the second tiebreaker is the higher College Football Playoff ranking. UNLV is ranked 22nd in the College Football Playoff rankings and Colorado State is unranked. Tulane, to me, is better than Boise State. But if Boise State wins out, the Committee won’t deny them, unfortunately.
Friday
No. 16 Colorado 38, Oklahoma State 35
Folsum Field, Boulder, CO.
11 AM
ABC
Colorado by 16
Mike Gundy and the Pokes give Coach Prime and his Buffs everything they want.
Saturday
No. 19 BYU 28, Houston 27
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
9:15 PM
ESPN
BYU by 13
The Houston Cougars take the BYU Cougars to the limit. I like Willie Fritz to get the Houston program going soon; like in 2025. I expect to see them in a solid bowl next season.