The Vanderbilt Commodores, 48-16, lock horns with the Mississippi State Bulldogs, 48-17, in the College World Series Championship Series tonight through Wednesday. Wednesday’s game is if necessary in the best 2 out of 3 format.
Tonight’s game starts at 6 on ESPN2. Tuesday’s game is at 6 PM on ESPN, and Wednesday’s game is at 6 PM on ESPN2, if that game is played. Karl Ravech, the great Kyle Peterson, KP, and the great Eduardo Perez will be on the call. Kris Budden will have reports from the field.
The Commodores got to the Championship series by virtue of victories over Arizona, 7-6, in 12 innings, a Jayson Gonzalez walk off single to left past a drawn in infield. They lost to North Carolina State last Monday Night, 1-0, though sophomore right hander Jack Leiter, the great Al Leiter’s son, who won 3 World Series Trophies in an 18 year career in the big leagues from 1987-2005, winning the World Series with the Toronto Blue Jays in ‘92 and ‘93, and with the Florida Marlins in 1997, was stellar. Jack went 8, gave up 4 hits, just 1 run, a homer by N.C. State’s designated hitter Terrell Tatum, he walked 1 and struck out 15. Jack is second in the country in strikeouts with 171. He’s walked 42 in 104 innings. His record is 10-4 and he has a 2.04 ERA. His junior teammate, right hander Kumar Rocker, leads the country in strikeouts with 173. It’s been a back and forth battle all season in strikeouts between the two and Virginia’s Andrew Abbott. Abbott is out of the CWS now, after UVA’s stellar run in the postseason ended at the hands of Texas, so it’s between Leiter and Rocker.
The Commodores faced an elimination game versus Stanford last Wednesday night and trailed 4-0 going into the bottom of the 4th when first baseman Dominic Keegan blasted a 2 run shot to left to cut the lead in half at 4-2. Down 5-2 going into the bottom of the 6th, the Dores scored 2 more runs on singles by pinch hitter Tate Kolwyck, the usual second baseman who has been hurt for a while now, and 2nd baseman Parker Noland to cut the lead to 5-4. Kolwyck may be available this series, at least as a pinch hitter. He’s a talent.
That’s the way it stayed till the bottom of the 9th when, with 2 outs, no runners on and things looking pretty slim against Stanford lock down closet Brandon Beck, who had been having his way with Commodore hitters, and with left fielder Javier Vaz up at the plate. Facing 2 strikes, Vaz coaxed a walk and the Dores had a little life. Then pinch hitter Spencer Jones hit a deep ground ball to short, and the Cardinal shortstop attempted to throw to first as he wasn’t going to get the speedy Vaz at second, and threw it away, allowing Vaz to get to third. The next hitter was all world freshman center fielder Enrique Bradfield, who lined a shot to right field for a run scoring single to tie the game at 5. Jones hustled to third. With shortstop Carter Young at the plate, Beck threw the ball over the catcher’s head and Jones scored in an improbable, electric victory. The Vanderbilt teams, under Tim Corbin through the years, have always had the flair for the dramatic. The Dores 9th inning rally was reminiscent of the Tua to DeVonta moment in the national championship game in 2018, Tua’s 42 yard strike to Smitty to win the national championship over Georgia was one of the most surreal, electrifying moments in college football history. Vanderbilt did that type of thing last Wednesday Night.
Friday was a controversial day. An hour before the game started against N.C. State, which had 2 games to win one and make the championship while it was win or go home for the Commodores, the NCAA informed the teams and the public that the Wolfpack was dealing with COVID issues on their team. There were several players out, but 5 of the starters were still available and good players at that. They were missing their star closer, Evan Justice, and that hurt, but the Pack put forth a gallant effort falling to the Dores and Rocker, 3-1. Rocker went 6, gave up 5 hits, with 1 earned, a walk and 11 K’s. Luke Murphy was heroic in closing it out. He pitched 2.1 innings, faces runners on board, gave up 2 hits, 0 runs, with 2 walks and 1 K. He was terrific in the high leverage, high pressure moments late in the game.
On Saturday, the game was declared a no contest due to N.C. State’s COVID issues, and Vanderbilt moved on to this championship series. Who knows what would have happened if the Wolfpack had had their full compliment of players. Tough break for those guys. But the Commodores remained healthy and took care of business when they had to, and earned the right to play tonight, tomorrow and possibly Wednesday.
Tim Corbin, the 19 year coach of the Commodores, is 800-375-1, 68%. He has taken his Commodore teams to 15 straight NCAA Regionals, 10 Super Regionals, 5 CWS’s, and has won the National Championship in 2014 and 2019. He has had 16 players drafted in the first round since 2004. David Price, in 2007, and Dansby Swanson, in 2015, were first overall picks by MLB. Price by the Tampa Bay Rays and Swanson by the Arizona Dbacks. Price is now pitching for the Dodgers and has had a highly successful career, particularly in the last 4 years. With the Red Sox in 2018, he helped lead them to the World Series title. Swanson, now with the Braves as a lot of you know, is a superb defensive shortstop, who is a solid doubles and homers hitter, and still trying to get the average where he’s a very good Major League hitter. Needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but he’s been hitting it pretty well lately. Braves could be getting better after splitting a series at Cincy over the weekend. Still trying to put it all together. They’ve had several debilitating injuries and the Marcel Ozuna disaster didn’t help with Ozuna being arrested for assaulting his wife, and being expelled from the team.
Corbin has had 10 players selected in the top 10 of the MLB draft since ‘04. The latest 2 are right fielder JJ Bleday, selected by the Miami Marlins 4th overall in 2019 and Austin Martin, selected 5th overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2020.
So, it’s quite a story in Nashville under Corbin. He’s taken over a program that was not on the radar, even in the SEC, until his arrival in 2003. Quite a job Corbin has done. He’s like S also in that he’s not the most amiable of guys in postseason interviews. I asked him yesterday on a Zoom call with reporters how his starting rotation is setting up for the Series, and his response was, “Fine.” So you kind of have to guess with Corbin on pitching and injuries, though he is a good guy when he’s not in the heat of the season. S may be a little tougher on the media, but obviously, he’s earned the right to handle the media however he wants to even t though it can be a little unsettling at times.
First baseman Dominic Keegan leads the Commodores in hitting at .359. He has belted out 15 homers and driven in 57. Bradfield, the stellar freshman center fielder, is hitting .346 with 1 homer and 38 RBIs. He has also stolen 46-of-52 bases. Just a dynamic player at the top of the order and a vocal leader on the team. Shortstop Carter Young hits .256, but has hit 16 homers and driven in 51. Carter can struggle with the off-speed stuff, and has struck out 81 times in 58 games, so the team needs him to put the ball in play and drive one or two out of TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha to help their cause. Second baseman Parker Noland is hitting .271 with 7 homers and 42 Ribeyes, but has been very clutch in the CWS with run scoring hits in key situations. The Dores are hitting .292 as a team and fielding at a .974 clip, though they’ve committed some uncharacteristic errors in the last 2 games. The ERA on the pitching staff is 3.27. Rocker is 14-3 with a 2.52 ERA with 37 walks and 173 strikeouts in 117 innings. He’s a workhorse. His dad, Tracy, now coaching the defensive line for the Philly Eagles, was a hoss at Auburn at defensive tackle, and so is Kumar. He’s 6’5”, 255 and is as an intimidating presence on the mound as you can find in baseball at any level. The third starter could be highly talented 17 year old freshman Christian Little. Little reclassified from the 2021 class to the 2020 class and arrived in January and shows sign of being the next “guy” at Vanderbilt. He’s 3-1 with a 4.87 ERA, which is not impressive, but he stymied Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament, and was a victim of some bad defense last Wednesday Night against Stanford. He’s stellar and going to be one of the top pitchers in college baseball in the coming years. The bullpen combination of NIck Maldonado, 1-2, 2.45 ERA, 8 saves, 7 walks, 55 strikeouts in 47.2 innings, and Luke Murphy, 4-1, 2.50 ERA, 9 saves, 15 walks, 60 K’s in 39.2 innings, has become a force in the late innings for the Dores. Maldonado has a terrific slider and hits 94. Murphy is a pure power arm, hitting 95, 96, 97. Rocker can hit 95, 96 and his slider is a gem. Leiter throws it 96, 97, 98 and even 99 and has a terrific breaking ball. Chris McElvain, 5-1, 3.71 ERA, is another guy the Commodores use frequently. The depth in the bullpen isn’t superb, but it’s pretty strong.
Most likely, Leiter will start tonight. He threw 123 pitches a week ago, but he’s ready. Corbin wouldn’t tell me who was pitching, but I’ll say it’s 98 percent certain it’s Leiter. If Vanderbilt wins tonight, Rocker could get the call tomorrow night to try and close it out. He threw 111 pitches on Friday, but he’s a workhorse and wants the ball. Depending on the outcome of tonight, Corbin may go to Little tomorrow night with a victory. With a loss, it could be Rocker. If the Commodores win, Corbin may go to Little and save Rocker for Wednesday, though Corbin is very aggressive with pitchers, and could employ Rocker tomorrow night if he feels like his Sherman Tank is ready to go.
Mississippi State is no slouch either. They can hit it. They hit .278 as a team, but right fielder Tanner Allen hits .382 with 11 homers and 66 Ribbies. Center fielder Rowdy Jordan hits .328 with 10 homers and 43 RBIs. Catcher Logan Tanner hits .279, and has 14 homers and 49 RBIs. Third baseman Kamren James hits .270 with 11 homers and 59 Ribbies and has stolen 19-of-22 bases. State is 71-of-89 in stolen bases, and Vanderbilt is 90-of-102. State is fielding at a .974 clip, just like the Commodores. Both, usually, are solid fielding teams. Their team ERA is 4.07.
Coach Chris Lemonis has been at State for 3 years now, posting a 112-36 record, 76%, with a CWS appearance in 2019 and a CWS appearance, and championship appearance, this year. Last year was cut short for all teams due to the Coronavirus. He is 40-20 in SEC play. Prior to State, the Myrtle Beach, South Carolina native was at Indiana 4 years, compiling a 141-91 record, 61%, taking the Hoosiers to the NCAA Regionals in 2015, ‘17 and ‘18. Lemonis is 47 years old and will be 48 in August. Corbin is 59 and will be 60 on August 5th. He needs an invitation to the Fennec for his 60th to join the other veterans at the 60 year old bash at Derricks’ hot new Honky Tonk.
Pitching for State is a little up in the air. Their best two pitchers are Will Bednar and Landon Sims. Bednar, a starter, pitched Saturday in an elimination game in bracket 2 going 6.1 innings, giving up 4 hits, 3 runs with 2 walks and 7 K’s. He threw 97 pitches. Sims came on in relief and threw 36 pitches, going 2.2, giving up 0 runs, 0 hits with 0 walks and 4 K’s. He’s a lockdown closer. Bednar is 8-1 with a 3.34 ERA with 23 walks and 135 K’s in 86.1 innings. Sims is 5-0 with a 1.52 ERA, with 14 walks and 96 K’s in 53 innings. He also has recoded 12 saves. They’ve got some other pretty good starters. Houston Harding is 7-2 with a 3.10 ERA, with 7 starts. He’s walked 19 and struck out 63 in 58 innings. Jackson Fristoe is 3-3 with a 5.81 ERA in 13 starts with 36 walks and 67 K’s. Christian McLeod is 6-5 with a 4.61 ERA in 15 starts with 31 walks and 113 K’s in 82 innings. If they can get to Sims with a lead, they’re very hard to defeat.
MacLeod pitched last Tuesday and struggled against Virginia giving up 5 hits, and 4 earned runs in only 1.1 inning of work. Harding pitched Friday and threw 82 pitches, giving up 4 hits, 3 earned in 4.2 innings. Harding and MacLeod, despite their struggles last week, are leftys, and Vanderbilt has 5 guys who hit left handed, and have had trouble with leftys and off speed stuff. So they could be in the rotation. Bednar and Sims are rightys. So, it’ll be interesting to see what Lemonis will do with his starting rotation. Could be a lot of bullpen use the next 2 nights before they can get to Bednar Wednesday, though Lemonis could use Bednar Tuesday Night if tonight doesn’t go well. Sims is up in the air tonight, though he could very well pitch if State has a lead late in the game.
One thing to note, State has a massive fan base and their fans are amped up for this. Vanderbilt fans need to match the State contingency in enthusiasm to help their team. That’ll be hard to do as TD Ameritrade will be loaded with State fans. They were there last week, including Saturday, and there will be more this week. Should be a riveting atmosphere.
Prediction
Game 1
I like Leiter to handle business in game 1 for the Dores. Corbin didn’t commit to Leiter yesterday, but I like him on the hill, and to pitch very well. He and Rocker are Golden Spikes nominees for the best player in college baseball along with Arkansas’ awesome Kevin Kopps. That will be announced in July. Give me Leiter and the Dores tonight.
Vanderbilt 3, State 2
Game 2
I see Bednar starting for State and Sims closing it out in game 2.
State 3, Vanderbilt 2
Game 3
I’ll take the Commodores to capture their 3rd National Championship under Corbin. It’ll be Rocker or Little and all hands on deck, even Leiter if he doesn’t throw 100+ pitches tonight. It’s going to be a tight game though.
Vanderbilt 5, State 4
National Champions, Vanderbilt University
Stanley Cup Prediction
The Tampa Bay Lightning, the defending Stanley Cup champion, face off with the Montreal Canadians, the last Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, in 1992-93. The Canadians are a storied franchise with 24 Stanley Cup titles, but it’s been slim pickings lately.
The Lightning are loaded. Nikita Kucherov leads the league in points in the playoffs with 27. Brayden Point leads the league in postseason goals with 14. The next guy has 8. Defenseman Victor Hedman leads all defenders with 16 points and he is a lock down defender. Highly tough and physical.
And the great Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the NHL: in postseason save percentage at .934.
This is a loaded team. The Canadians have been extremely impressive getting through the North and Western conference playoffs as they were one of the last teams in the North Division to make the playoffs. They defeated a loaded Vegas Golden Knights team in 6 in an improbable upset. But I like the talent on this Lightning team more. They’re well coached, led by 9th year coach, 53 year old Jon Cooper, they’ve got excellent leadership amongst the team, they play lock down defense, and have several guys who can put it in the back of the net. Also, I really like their goalie.
I’ll take Champa Bay to continue the winning tradition of the stellar city on the central Gulf Coast. They’ll follow Brady’s lead, they’ve already won last year, and the great Tampa Bay Rays, which went to the World Series last year and have a shot to win it all this year.
Champa Bay in 5
Conn Smythe Award winner
Most Valuable Player in the Stanley Cup Playoffs
There are going to be a lot of candidates for the Bolts here, but I’ll take their 26 year old stellar goalie from Tyumen, Russia.
Andre Vasilevskiy
TV
Game 1, Tonight, Montreal @ Tampa Bay, 7 PM CT, NBCSN
Game 2, Wednesday, Montreal @ Tampa Bay, 7 PM CT, NBCSN
Game 3 Friday, Tampa Bay @ Montreal, 7 PM CT, NBC
Game 4, Monday, July 5th, Tampa Bay @ Montreal , 7 PM CT, NBC
Game 5, Wednesday, July 7th, Montreal @ Tampa Bay, 7 PM CT, NBC
Game 6, Friday, July 9th, Tampa Bay @ Montreal, 7 PM CT, NBC
Game 7, Sunday, July 11th, Montreal @ Tampa Bay, 6 PM CT, NBC.
****Games 5,6 and 7 are if necessary.****