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July 15, 2020

The Historic Memorial Tournament on Tour this week

After a smashing Workday Charity Open event last week at Muirfield Village Golf Club, the Tour stays put at Jack Nicklaus’s course and tournament this week, the Memorial with the 8 top players in the World Golf Rankings competing along with the top 5 in the Fed Ex Cup Standings.

World No.1 Rory, No.2 Jon Rahm, No.3 Justin Thomas, who lost in a heartbreaker to Collin Morikawa last Sunday, more on that in a moment, No.4 Dustin Johnson, No.5 Webb Simpson, No.6 Brooks Koepka, No.7 Bryson DeChambeau, and No.8 Patrick Reed, and also No.10 Patrick Cantlay are all in the field. No.9 Adam Scott is not playing as he’s being careful with the virus.

The top 5 in the Fed Ex Cup rankings are No.1 Justin T. with 1,843 points, No.2 Webb S. 1,660 points, No.3 Sungjae Im, 1,542 points, 4. DeChambeau, 1,514 points, and No.5 Rory, 1,270 points.

Also, No.11 in the world, Xander Schauffele is playing as is No.13 and last week’s winner Collin Morikawa, along with No.14 and 5 time champion Tiger Woods. More on Tiger in a moment as well. No.16 Justin Rose is playing. He won the event in 2010. No.18 Gary Woodland, No.19 Tony Finau and No.20 Matt Kuchar are all in the field this week. Kuchar won the Memorial in 2013.

Last Week:

Morikawa and Thomas put on a spectacular display of golf as both shot -19 for the tournament in regulation. JT had a 3 shot lead heading into No.16, but uncharacteristically bogeyed 2 out of the final 3 holes he played, including 18, giving Morikawa, who birdied 17 from 9 feet, the opportunity to take him into a playoff. On the miraculous first playoff hole, Number 18, JT drained maybe one of the greatest birdie putts I’ve ever seen. He faced a 50 footer with 10 to 15 feet of left to right break and canned it in miraculous fashion. His reaction was pretty dramatic. He looked like the winner. Jack Nicklaus was coming up to the tournament that day to see the winner in the locker-room that night at 6 PM. His plane left at 2 PM ET because he thought the final round would be finished up in the early evening. But due to the threat of inclement weather that afternoon, the final round was moved up to Sunday morning, so Nicklaus saw Thomas’s putt while his plane was taxing out of the airport in Florida. He and his wife Barbara sent Justin a text congratulating him and telling him they were looking forward to seeing him go for 2 in a row this week. The plane was in the air when Morikawa sank his 25 footer to send it into a second playoff hole. Once Nicklaus got to 10,000 feet, he got WIFI again, saw that Morikawa had won and had to send JT an apologetic text. Nicklaus said that all he texted was “Oops.” I’m sure that made Justin feel a lot better. Aside from that, 18 was one of the best playoff holes I’ve ever seen in golf. For JT to sink the 50 footer and then for Morikawa to come right back and sink a 25 footer with the intense pressure on, was remarkable. Morikawa won it on the third playoff hole, No.10. Justin’s putt was reminiscent of Tiger’s 50 footer on No.18 in the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, Tiger’s “better than most” 50 footer on No.17 in the 2001 Players, and Jon Rahm’s 50+ footer on 18 at Torrey when he won the Farmers in 2017. Something else.

Morikawa has now played in 24 tournaments in his young career and had made 22 cuts in a row before a missed cut at the Travelers Championship 3 weeks ago. He’s won more tournaments than he’s missed cuts, 2 to 1. He also won the Barracuda Championship in July of 2019 in California. That’ll be played this year July 30th-August 2nd the same weekend of the WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude Invitational in Memphis. Morikawa will be playing in Memphis though playing in California in August is not a bad deal either. His consecutive made cuts mark is 2nd only to Tiger’s 142, yes, that’s not a misprint, 142 consecutive cuts made from 1998 to 2005. Wow, I’ve got to amend my comment from last week about Jack Nicklaus being the greatest of all time. Jack was the best complete package golfer of all time in that he carried himself so well off the course as well as on the course. But Tiger is the most talented and the best player to ever play the game. He’s going for the all time record of 83 victories this week at Muirfield Village to break the tie he’s in with Sam Snead at 82. Jack posted 72 career victories. Tiger has 15 to Jack’s 18 in the most important record in golf, but if the guy’s physique can hold up, he’s got a shot at that Major record too. I didn’t think I’d be saying this heading into 2019, but after his victory at Augusta National last year, it’s not out of the question. It would be riveting if he won a couple more. I see him winning another Green Jacket, maybe 2. An Open Championship at St. Andrews, which takes place in 2022, is certainly possible. He won at St. Andrews in 2000 and 2005. The U.S. Open next year (2021) is at Torrey Pines, where he’s won 8 times, including the 2008 U.S. Open, another course he loves. So there will be opportunities. He can win anywhere if he plays like he did at Augusta in 2019. I’d kind of like to see it now. Didn’t think I’d say that a year or so ago, but now it’d be terrific to see that transpire. Tiger has won at Torrey, the South Course, 8 times, he’s won at Firestone Country Club 8 times, he’s won 5 times at Augusta National, and 5 times at Muirfield Village and Cog Hill Golf Club outside Chicago where the BMW Championship and Western Open have been played. So he’s a horse for a lot of courses.

At the start of the Golf Central show on the Golf Channel last night, GC showed an interview Tiger did with Curtis Strange in 1996 when Tiger was just starting his PGA career. Strange asked him what his goals were. Tiger answered that when he enters a tournament he is in there to win every time out. Strange said that sounded arrogant and said “you’ll learn.” I disagree with that. Tiger was just saying what every professional golfer’s goal is. He knew he couldn’t win every one he entered, but his mindset was exactly what he needed to excel. I agree with that response 100 percent. Curtis Strange won 2 U.S. Opens in a row, in 1988 and ‘89, which was a super feat, and he won 17 PGA Tournaments, which is certainly Hall of Fame material which he is in. But comparing his resume to Tiger’s, is no contest. You can say that for about every PGA Tour player who ever played besides about 6 or so of them. I’d say Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Tom Watson and Gary Player are in that category, but besides Nicklaus, not on Tiger’s level of greatness. Strange was the one being arrogant. He was the jerk. I would say Tiger backed up his comments.

Muirfield Village Golf Club, 7,456 yards, Par 72. Greens are set to be stimping at 13 to 14, very fast. They’ll be 2 feet faster than they were last week. The Stimpmeter is a tool that measures how far a ball will roll on the green when it’s released from a contraption that has a curved spout that the ball rolls down. If the ball rolls 13 feet from the instrument, the green stimps at 13 feet. A lot of PGA tournaments have the greens stimping at 11 or 12. Thirteen is quick. The majors are at 14. When there are really dry conditions at a Masters or a U.S. Open the greens can be 15, which makes it very exciting to watch and tough for the players 1 putt or even 2 putt.

Featured groups this week with their Fed Ex Cup Rankings

7:06 AM CT-Bryson DeChambeau (4), Collin Morikawa (6), Patrick Cantlay (28)

Morikawa won at Muirfield Village last week, Cantlay is the defending champion, and DeChambeau, who won 2 weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, won here in 2018. Golf writers and commentators are saying DeChambeau is changing the game with his gigantic 350+ yard drives that are accurate. Golf Channel’s Tripp Isenhour said last night on Golf Central they need to narrow the sweet spot on the ball so DeChambeau can’t get away with his misses going right down the middle of the fairway. I agree with that. That’s the way it was played in the past, so that would be a good rule change. I’m reserving judgment on DeChambeau changing the game. Let’s see how he fares in the majors this year. He’s to be determined.

7:17 AM CT-Justin Thomas (1), Xander Schauffele (12), Dustin Johnson (23)

Justin has held the top spot in the Fed Ex Cup rankings for 10 weeks this season and regained it from Webb Simpson last week. DJ won the Travelers 3 weeks ago. He extended his streak of winning at least 1 tournament every year to 13 years in row. That’s superb. Schauffele has made the cuts in all 4 of his starts since the return of golf this season. He tied for 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge, he tied 64th at the RBC Heritage, which isn’t that swift, but its’ a made cut and a paycheck. He tied for 20th at the Travelers and tied for 14th at the Workday last week.

12:06 PM CT-FIGJAM Mickelson (94), Justin Rose (119) and Shane Lowry (145)

FIGJAM is making his 20th appearance at Muirfield dating back to 1991. He’s never won it though. Rose owns 7 top 10’s in 13 appearances at the Memorial highlighted by a victory in 2010 and 2 runners up finishes in 2008 and 2015. Lowry is the defending Open Championship winner. The 2020 Open was supposed to be this week, but was postponed and will take place in July of 2021 at Royal St. George’s in England.

12:17 PM CT-Rory (5), Tiger (41), Brooks Koepka (156). Rory is a 2 time Fed Ex champion, 2016 and 2019, and owns the most top 10’s at the Memorial of the top 5 players in the World Rankings. Rory has 4 top10’s there. Tiger is making his first start since the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in February,. That’s 151 days since his last tournament. It’s his longest layoff ever between tournaments. Nicklaus was asked if that will be a factor in his performance this week. He said there could be possible rust for Tiger, but he also added when he was playing he’d put up his clubs from September to January and still won at Pebble Beach 3 times when he came back. So it’s certainly possible. Koepka birdied 5 of his closing 7 holes last Friday at the Workday but missed the cut by 1 shot. That’s still a pretty good momentum builder for Koepka.

One Final thing

Morikawa set the all time record for best Strokes Gained Approach average in a final round of a tournament last Sunday at the Workday. He led the field with a +5.87 SGA number. Ernie Els was +5.52 at the 2008 Honda Classic, Tiger was +5.31 at the 2006 Deutsche Bank Championship, Adam Scott was +5.06 at the 2014 Charles Schwab Challenge and Tiger was +4.85 at the 2009 WGC Fed-Ex St. Jude Invitational. The Strokes Gained metric was introduced to the tour in 2004. The inventor was Columbia University professor Mark Broadie. There’s Strokes Gained off the Tee, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Strokes Gained Putting etc… It’s your number related to the average of the rest of the field in a particular round, for the tournament or for the season. In the first round, Morikawa was +3.64, 3rd, in the second round he was +1.25, 48th, in the 3rd round he was -1.54, 55th, then he was seemingly sticking it on every hole on Sunday.

Morikawa, at 23 and a graduate of Cal-Berkeley, has an extremely bright future in the game. So does 21 year old Matthew Wolff, a winner at the 2019 3M Open in Minneapolis last year, and 22 year old Viktor Hovland, a winner at this year’s Puerto Rico Open. Both Wolff and Hovland played at Oklahoma State. Neither one of them graduated from OK. State. So, Morikawa is unusual in this day and age in golf in that he played 4 years in college.

Winner’s Share this week: $1.638M

Weather: Thursday, 86, chance of T Storms, 50%, wind 13 MPH. Friday, 92, Wind 8 MPH 20% chance., Saturday, 92, wind 11 MPH, 20% chance. Sunday 92, Wind 11 MPH, chance 20%. So some wind tomorrow and this weekend, which will make it more interesting.

TV: Thursday-Friday, Golf Channel, 1:30-5:30 PM CT, Saturday, GC, 11:30 AM-2 PM CT, CBS, 2-5 PM CT. Sunday, 12-2:30 PM CT, Golf Channel, 2:30-6 PM CT, CBS.

Winner

While Tiger is the real horse for the course in this tournament, I’m going to go with the horse from last year, the defending champion. Give me the 28 year old from Long Beach, California by way of UCLA. Won last year and finished tied for 7th last week at the Workday shooting a 65 on Sunday.

Patrick Cantlay

I expect Tiger to make the cut and possibly finish top 15, maybe even a top 10. I don’t see him with a top 5 though.

Sleeper

Billy Horschel

A 5 time winner on tour and not really a sleeper usually, but he’s been kind of quiet lately, so I’ll take the 33 year old Grant, Florida native and Florida Gator.

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