Tournament: Arnold Palmer Invitational
Where: Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida

Course: 7,381 yards, par 72

Architect: Dick Wilson

Purse: $6,000,000

Winner’s share: $1,080,000

Defending champion: Tiger Woods (-13)

TV Times: Today: Golf Channel: 2-5 PM CT; 7:30-10:30 PM CT; Friday: Golf Channel: 2-5 PM CT; 7:30-10:30 PM CT; Saturday: Golf: 11:30 AM-1:30 PM CT; NBC: 1:30-5 PM CT; Golf: 8:30 PM-2 AM CT; Sunday: Golf: 11:30 AM-1:30 PM CT; NBC: 1:30-5 PM CT; Monday: Golf: 11 AM-4 PM CT.

Weather:  Today: High 71; winds NW 11 MPH; Friday: 77; winds 9 MPH East Northeast; Saturday: 86, winds: 16 MPH; 30% chance of rain with a chance for severe weather; Sunday: 84; 60 percent chance of rain; winds 17 MPH.

There are some pretty cool par 5’s on Bay Hill. No.4 is a 581 par-5, which is a three shot hole for many of the players. Tough driving hole. Tight on the left with trees. Tiger has been tearing up the par 5’s at Bay HIll. No.6 is a 555 par 5. A very interesting hole with water running down the entire left side of the hole. Pretty cool driving hole. No. 12 is a 574 par five that looks like a lay up for some except for guys like Tiger and Bubba who hit it a ton. No.16 is the final par five and at 511 very reachable in two. The 17th is an excellent 221-yard par 3. Ernie, who was trying to get into third place last year to qualify for Augusta, made a costly bogey on this hole, when he hit his tee shot in the mud in front of the green, blasted out into the sand and hit out of the sand and bogeyed the hole. He didn’t finish third and didn’t make it the next week at the Shell Open and and did not get in the Masters. There was talk about giving Ernie an exemption, but Johnny Miller made a good point about it in this tourney last year saying golf is a merit game, it’s not a sentimental game. As much as I like Ernie, I agree with that thinking.

The 18th is a classic 458-yard par four, and was the toughest hole on the course last year. It’s a straightaway tee shot to a wide fairway, but that’s where the basic shot ends. The second shot is to a kidney shaped green, over water and rocks with bunkers protecting the back of the green. The pin will be tucked on the right front on Sunday most likely making it hard to get it close leading to a long birdie putt that could lead to a three putt. It’s a risky shot to go at the stick with this pin location as the water and rocks will be very much in play with that decision. Very difficult second shot and could lead to great drama on Sunday.

Contenders:

Graeme McDowell:

Played well here last year finishing second to Tiger though he couldn’t give Tiger a run for his money on Sunday. Great driver and putter which this course requires.

Brandt Snedeker:

I know he’s been off five weeks, but I loved his interview on Tuesday. Seemed rested, refreshed and ready to go. He’s recovered from an intercostal muscle injury, but he’s been working hard and I think he’s primed to win a major this year. He moved while he was injured but couldn’t move any furniture or boxes. As the Golf Channel reporter said it’s the old hurt back routine during moving. Augusta will be a good place for Brandt to get his first major. He loves Augusta and usually plays well there. Bay Hill and the Shell Houston next week will be good tuneups for him as he gets back in the mix.

Phil:

Always a threat to win. If he can putt well, Phil could be in the hunt on Sunday.

I’m pretty surprised that McIlroy is not playing. Arnie was pretty surprised as well. Seems to be a mistake as this is the best tuneup for Augusta left before the Masters in three weeks. Don’t know his reasons for not playing. Seems like a major mistake to me.

Winner:

Has there been a more prohibitive favorite at a tournament this year than Tiger at Bay Hill? Not even close. Tiger at Torrey Pines is close and Tiger at the Memorial is also, but he’s won this event seven times and is trying to tie Sam Snead for the most victories in one event at eight. Snead won the Greater Greensboro Open eight times. Another big deal for Tiger is he’s going for career win number 77, 5 short of Snead’s all time record of 82. And this is tremendous preparation for Augusta. There will be more work to be done after this tourney, but this is a very nice steppingstone to Augusta. As long as Tiger’s driving the ball like he has been lately and like he did last year here and putting beautifully as he did last year, he’ll be unstoppable. Sean Foley’s work with Tiger is really paying off. He won three times last year and has already won twice this year. Tiger put on a clinic here last year. Some times a sure thing doesn’t always work out, but I’m betting that this one will. And Augusta is getting closer and closer. That should really be compelling as Woods–who is chasing the Nicklaus record (18 majors)– is starting to play the kind of golf we saw him play back in the early 2000’s. If he gets back to that level, which is starting to look possible, he’s got a good shot of breaking it. Hopefully the weather won’t be an issue this weekend.