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October 19, 2012

‘Bama tries to keep churning out wins; AU in an interesting one in Music City

 (Eddie and T.J. should have their way with UT rush defense)
I watched Oregon last night to get a good gauge on their team. The buzz about the Ducks is their two running backs, Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas. The Sun Devils decided they were going to key on them, and while Barner had a 70-yarder for a touchdown to open the scoring for the Ducks, Thomas was pretty much held in check. But quarterback Marcus Mariota reeled off an 86-yard TD run and showed some eletrifying speed of his own. The Ducks also had four ints on defense for 111 yards. They have some big, strong defensive backs, who are the strength of their defense. They also have a prolific pass rusher in Dion Jordan, who had two sacks last night and has racked up five on the season in seven games. The Ducks beat Arizona State last night 43-21, but it was over at halftime as they were leading 43-7 and just kind of let up in the second half, which you can’t do against a quality opponent.

The reason I talk about the Ducks is because they have a pretty decent shot at running the table and playing for the national title game. Their biggest tests will come against Stanford at home, on the road at USC, and on the road at Oregon State, which may be their toughest challenge. But those are very winnable games. Then they’ll play in the Pac-12 championship game against possibly USC. That’s actually pretty tough sledding, but if this team can stay healthy, they have a good shot at playing in the national title game at the Orange Bowl on January 7, 2013. Alabama could very well be their opponent, but both have a lot of work left. Kansas State is certainly not out of it. If they can get by West Virginia at Morgantown, West Va. tomorrow they’re seriously in the discussion. Notre Dame a player as well. And Florida. If Florida can get by South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State will be in the only two teams standing in their way of a perfect regular season.  Then they’d probably play ‘Bama in the SEC championship game if ‘Bama can navigate through the rest of their schedule with UT tomorrow, State next week at home and at Baton Rouge on Nov.3. A one-loss team like Florida State or Oklahoma could get back in the hunt if things work out their way with them winning out and other undefeated teams losing.

Now onto Alabama-Tennessee:

Last week: 8-2; Overall: 66-23 (74%)

N0.1 ‘Bama @ UT

Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville (102,456 capacity)

When: 6 PM CT

Network: ESPN

Line: ‘Bama by 20

How is A.J. McCarron’s knee doing? That is the major question for the Tide this week. It was reported earlier in the week that he had a torn meniscus. A.J., his family and the Alabama people refuted that fiercely. I did watch him on film in drills this week and he was moving slowly. The reporter for College Football News who reported the story, said that A.J. can play with a meniscus tear, but it gets worse the more you play on it. It may just be a bruise as Alabama is reporting. Alabama is hopeful of that. But A.J. will play tomorrow night and he and his team should be good to go on offense in this one. Alabama is No.1 in the country in many defensive categories, including scoring defense and total defense. Have 11 ints on the season, too, third best in the country. The offensive line is hitting its stride and it looks like Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon are too. A.J. may not need to do much as UT is 81st in rushing defense nationally allowing 178 yards per game on the ground, and is 90th in scoring defense allowing 31.50 points per game. Alabama is allowing seven points per game. Alabama just needs to take care of business here. The secondary will be tested by UT quarterback Tyler Bray and receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter. Patterson is a flat out stud and can make so much happen after he catches the ball and on kick returns. Had a 90+ yard kickoff return for a touchdown against State last Saturday Night. Hunter is still a terrific player, so expect Bray to target him more tomorrow night. But with as outstanding as UT’s passing game can be– and they have a solid Oline that has only given up three sacks, tops in the conference–their defense is just not good enough to stop the Tide. This will be a good test for the Tide secondary and the defensive line to see if they can get some pressure on Bray and take some of the pressure off the dbs. Should be a pretty good game, but like Alabama to pull away in the second half and keep marching toward an SEC west crown and possible greatness once again.

‘Bama 42, UT 24

 

Auburn @ Vandy

Where: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nash Vegas (40,000 approximately)

When: 11:21 AM CT

Network: SEC Network (WTTO-21 in Birmingham)

Line: Vandy by 7

Now that’s a new one. Vanderbilt favored over AU by seven? Are you kiddin me? The ‘Dores are better, playing hard and James Franklin is trying to build a winner at VU, which is tough to do. AU is going to be angry coming into this game. They’re tired of the criticism, tired of the harrassment. I think they’re going to play well. Will that be good enough to win? Quite possibly. Clint Moseley gets the start, and Moseley has not been consistent but neither has Jordan Rodgers for the ‘Dores, so that’s a wash. Auburn will try to pound the ball on the ground with Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb. Moseley needs to throw some and avoid mistakes. Defense has got to get better against the run as Vanderbilt has a pretty good run game. James Franklin is recruiting well and the team is playing hard this year, like they always have. They just don’t have enough size on the defensive line to compete with the olines of the SEC. Zac Stacy is a quality running back and he’ll get his yards. I’m deciding this outcome as I write. I’m not sure if I’m going with my heart or my head here, but I’ll take the ‘Dores in a very close one.

Vandy 20, AU 17

 

No.7 South Carolina @ No.2 Florida

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field, Gainesville, Fl. (90,000+)

When; 2:30 CT

Network: CBS, Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and “The Wolf” broadcast team

Line: Florida by 4

It looks like Marcus Lattimore is doubtful for the game with a hip injury, but you never know. He may play. There are some other guys who are banged up for the Gamecocks.  Jadeveon Clowney will probably play but he’s banged up and a couple of  dlinemen are out. Three or four guys including standout wide receiver Bruce Ellington have had the flu bug this week, so it’s been a tough week for SC. Florida is cruising right along. Are they the No.2 team in the country? Maybe, maybe not, but the more wins they get, the more confidence they’ll get  and they could see themselves playing in the SEC title game with a chance to go to the big game if they win that. Though even if they do win the East, they have to play Florida State in Tallahassee to close out the season which will be tough. But the Gators look like the better team here. If SC were healthy, I might give them the nod, but Florida is playing pretty well on offense led by quarterback Jeff Driskel, who’s not a prolific passer by any means, but can really run it. He’s built like Cam and he’s fast like Cam, and he can really make things happen on the ground. Mike Gillislee is a high quality running back. Florida will try to ground and pound like LSU did last week. SC is just a beaten up team right now. With their depleted squad, I just don’t think they have enough to stop a Gator team that could very well be  the second best team in the country though Oregon has a good argument there. Gators  top five team though for sure.

Gators 24, SC 17

 

No.6 LSU @ No. 18 Texas A&M

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas (83, 002)

When: 11 AM CT

Network: ESPN

Line: LSU by 3

Interesting matchup here in the SEC West. LSU got a must win over SC last week in Death Valley for SEC West and national purposes, and got their running game going. Freshman Jeremy Hill looks like a player. He ran for 124  yards last week and two touchdowns, including a 50-yarder that pretty much clinched the game. Spencer Ware had a nice game running the ball and Kenny Hilliard and Michael Ford were effective. LSU is back to their identity which is pounding you on the ground. A&M won 59-57 over La Tech in a wild one. Redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel is a stud at quarterback for the Aggies, but he didn’t do as well against a stout Florida defense in an opening game loss to the Gators at Kyle Field, 20-17, But  A&M did go toe to toe with the Gators for most of the game. LSU’s defense is just as good as Florida’s, and A&M’s is struggling a little bit after the La Tech game, but they’ve been pretty decent this year. In a pretty tight game like this, I’m going to go with the better defense. Manziel is hard to stop and he’s going to be an outstanding quarterback in the SEC, but LSU can neutralize him and they’ll pound it on the ground and wear down the Aggie defense.

LSU 24, A&M 20

 

No.4 Kansas State @ No. 13 West Virginia

Where: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, West Va. (60,000)

When: 6 PM CT

Network: FOX, Gus Johnson and Charles Davis on the call

Line: West Va by 2 1/2

 

This game lost a little bit of its luster when West Virginia got smoked by Tubby and Texas Tech last Saturday, but it’s still a big time game. Morgantown is a tough place to win, but if any team can do it besides Alabama, Florida and Oregon, it’s Kansas State. Collin Klein is the most valuable player in the country and the senior quarterback to me looks like he could win the Heisman. Geno Smith could get right back in the thick of things in the Heisman race with a big night tomorrow night. Smith is a prolific passer and Klein just does everything well. There’s not a player in the country who makes his team better than Klein does. While West Virginia is capable of exploding on offense, I like K-State’s team better overall. They play well in all three phases of the game and always seem to find a way to get it done. Like Coach Bill Snyder and his qb, Klein, to get the job done in Morgantown and stay right in the thick of things for the BCS. But this is going to be an offensive arsenal of a game.

K-State 35, West Virginia 34


Other games:

Georgia 52, Ky 7

Ms. State 42, Middle Tennessee 31

Clemson 45, Va Tech 35

Texas Tech 28, TCU 27

Notre Dame 24, Brigham Young 21

Michigan 35, Michigan State 20

Florida State 42, Miami (Fl) 24

 

 

 

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