Articles in
October 2012

This is all about defense; with just enough offense

    (Robert Lester, left, and Kevin Minter, lead their respective defenses)
Alabama leads the nation in red zone defense and it leads the nation in a lot of defensive categories. Opponents have scored touchdowns 40 percent of the time when they get in Alabama’s red zone (4 rush TDs, two pass TDs in 15 opportunities). LSu is 115th in the country, giving up touchdowns 76 percent of the time when opponents are in the red zone (eight rush TDs, 5 pass TDs in 17 opportunities). What’s deceiving about those percentages is the opponents have had 15 chances in the red area against Alabama while opponents have had  17 chances against LSU. While opponents are more successful against LSU in the red area, they get there only two more times than they do against Alabama.

Alabama leads the country in red zone offense scoring  TDs 74 percent of the time in the red area (26 TDs nin 35 attempts; 16 rushing, 10 passing). LSU is at 47 percent (16 TDs in 34 attempts; 14 rushing, two passing). So Alabama’s offense is much more of a sure thing inside the 20.

But the more significant stats in this game are total defense. Alabama leads the nation allowing 203.13 yards per game, while LSU is third at 243.38. In scoring defense, Alabama leads the country at 8.13 points allowed, while LSU is ninth at 14.63. In rush defense, Alabama leads the country giving up approximately 51 yards per game, while LSU is eighth at 95 per. In pass defense, Alabama is first giving up 145 yards per game. LSU is fourth giving up 148.5 per game.

Finally, and maybe the key statistic of the game, Alabama has a +17 turnover margin (14 ints, nine fumble recoveries vs. six turnovers lost). That’s second in the country. LSU is +9 with 13 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries (21) against 12 turnovers lost; good for ninth in the country. Kent State leads the country at +21.

One last stat: Alabama leads the nation in pass efficiency defense with opponents completing 51% of their passes, while LSU is second allowing opponents to complete 51.79% of their passes thrown.

So it should be tough for both teams to move the ball.

On offense, Alabama is 41st in the country in total offense averaging 436 yards per game, while LSU is 74th at 386 per game. The key there is the explosive plays because with the kind of defense that is going to be played, one or two explosive plays along with turnover advantage for one team  could be the difference. Alabama defines explosive plays as runs of 12+ yards and passes of 15+ yards. The Tide has 44 passes of over 15 yards or longer, including 25 of 20 yards or longer by A.J. McCarron. On the ground the Tide has 39 rushes of 12 or more yards. T.J. Yeldon has 16 and Eddie Lacy has 10.

Couldn’t find LSU numbers there, but they are considerably less I imagine. Before the South Carolina game, two games ago, LSU had five explosive plays of 20+ yards. I’ve got them at about two or three more against South Carolina and A&M, so about seven or eight right now.

I’ll look at some of the individual players tomorrow and give you my prediction.

Kevin Sumlin’s contract at A&M

Sumlin makes $2 million a year. He signed a five-year contract for $2 million last year with A&M. He inherited some good players at A&M, but he built a strong program at Houston prior to that. He looks like the real deal to me. We’ll see.

Quick thoughts from last night and going forward

 (Could this coach be a possibility?)
I will have much more tomorrow in an extensive column on Alabama, AU, the SEC and national scene. Just some thoughts on ‘Bama and AU. What can you say about Tide? Just a terrific football team. Can they get any better? I’m sure S can find things to work on this week as it is a huge game. But everything is in place for another national title; number 15. There’s work to do for sure. Baton Rouge on Saturday Night at 7 PM CT on CBS is not going to be a cake walk. But the Tide certainly looks better than LSU and should win this game if they play the way they’re capable of , which they’ve done pretty much all season. Just incredible consistency. It’ll be hostile down there, but this team seems to be able to handle any circumstances, any environment, any adversity. They just deliver. More on the Tide tomorrow.

It’s painful to watch AU now. Sad for the Auburn nation who deserve much better than this. I went to Vanderbilt and our goal is to get to bowl games at this stage; the Independence Bowl, the Liberty Bowl, any bowl is a successful season for Vandy. Maybe one day the program can have higher goals. James Franklin might make that happen.

But I say that to contrast that with Auburn, which has a rich history of football success. The resources/passion are there for the Auburn family. Success is expected and this is just unacceptable. Auburn can do much better than this. Auburn should be in the upper echelon of SEC football every year and in the national discussion most every year. The program has proven with a good coach that it can do that every year. Pat Dye certainly did that. Tommy Tuberville had his moments, 2004 especially. Even Terry Bowden had a good year or two (1993 comes to mind). The regime needs to change. I know Jay Jacobs and Gene Chizik are dedicated Auburn men, but they’re not getting it done. Who could take over at Auburn? Maybe Jacobs survives, but he needs to hit a home run in this next hire. They need a new coach. I’m sorry for Chizik. He has tried his best and seems like a pretty good man, but he can’t right this ship. Kevin Sumlin, the guy who crushed Chizik last night, is a guy I could see making a difference for the Tigers. He was actually born in Brewton, Al, so there is an affinity for him to this state. He’s impressive. He looks to have a pretty good situation at A&M, his recruiting class is close to the top 10 in the country, and his quarterback, Johnny Manziel, is a redshirt freshman, who is a stud right now and has an unlimited future and could take the Aggies to some big time moments. So Auburn would really have to do a great sales job to get Sumlin to Auburn. Then again, he might want to crawl to Auburn to have that opportunity. Would be a very good hire in my opinion. Not sure what AU will do with Jacobs. Chizik won a national title in 2010, so you have to give him that. The Cam Newton situation was very suspect, but the performance on the field was not; it was stellar. So you have to give Jacobs credit for that at least. But it’s not going well now. Basketball hasn’t gotten it together, baseball doesn’t seem to be improving much– though both teams could be better this season. But football, the bell cow of Auburn University athletics, is not getting it done. So Jacobs is responsible for that. We’ll see what President Jay Gogue and the Board want to do. Maybe they need to hire two new guys. Chizik has to go; no doubt about that. I hate it for any coach to lose his job, but, as one would say about the Obama administration, look at the record. It tells the truth. Coaching is a tough profession, particularly in the SEC, but you’re expected to win at Auburn. That’s the standard. So change is necessary.

Auburn can find a new coach and get the program where the Auburn nation wants it to be; competing for SEC titles and getting back on the national landscape. Auburn should be competing for BCS bowls and maybe playing for it all some years. As I said, AU fans deserve better. Kevin Sumlin and a new athletic director may be what the program needs.

A look at the weekend’s games and the season going forward tomorrow. A lot to discuss. Please stay with the blog.

Another compelling weekend for Alabama

 (KIrby Smart, C.J.Mosley and ‘Bama D will be tested)
‘Bama is a 24-point favorite over State. Wow, that’s a big line, but that’s how much respect the experts have for this football team and their coach. I don’t think I’d take the points though. This is going to be a competitive game; the toughest game to date for the Tide. If it was in Starkville it would be even more interesting. Tide just needs to keep proving it every week, and this should really give us a gauge of where this football team stands as far as being the best team in the country. They look like they are to me, without a doubt. Kansas State, Oregon, Florida and I think Oklahoma can make an argument for their respective teams. Notre Dame, I just don’t think they’re strong enough offensively though they have a pretty solid defense, which can win them a lot of games. But Notre Dame is not strong enough to knock off OU in Norman. Like the Sooners in that one; a huge national game.

This State team is for real. They can run it, they can throw it and they can play some defense. They’re solid in special teams as well. Jonathan Banks is a stud corner and a fantastic punt returner. He could be the best cornerback in the country, though Dee Milliner gives him a pretty good run for his money. On the other side, Darius Slay is excellent at corner as well. This will be interesting to see ‘Bama’s bevy of receivers led by the phenomenal Amari Cooper  go against the State corners. State plays solid defense, LaDarius Perkins is an excellent running back (he’s quite a physical specimen and player), and Tyler Russell has found his rhythm at qb and is playing excellent football. The offensive line is big and can move. Should be an interesting matchup there with the ‘Bama dlinemen. Chad Bumphis  is the key guy at wide out. He is highly dependable in catching the ball, has sprinter’s speed and can make a lot happen after the catch. State employs a posse like ‘Bama does at receiver. If Russell has time to throw, he’ll be  dangerous. Should be a fun one in T-Town.

This week’s predictions:

Last week: 12-0; Overall: 78-23 (77 %)

All rankings are from the BCS Standings

No.11 Mississippi State @ No.1 Alabama

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (capacity:101,821)

When: 7:30 PM CT

Network: ESPN; Brad Nessler and Todd Blackledge on the call. Holly Rowe sideline reporter

Line: ‘Bama by 24

This is a very good State team. Are they great? I don’t think they’re at that point yet. But they are very good. Excellent test for what I would consider the best team in the country. The usual things need to happen for the Tide: the oline needs to control the line of scrimmage for opening holes for Eddie and T.J., who don’t need much, and give A.J. time to throw and dissect the secondary. The line is very dependable in that area. That’s critical as usual. Key matchup is the Alabama receiving corps versus the State secondary. Can State hold the ‘Bama passing game in check? I think the State defense will do well, but I think the Tide will just be too strong at the end. Like State to score some points, but C.J. Mosley and defense will get it done when it counts. State will play well. They’re a very good football team that thinks they can win. They lead the country in turnover margin at +17; interesting stat there. Tide is third at +15. Tide is the best team in the country, so I don’t think State can get over the top in Tuscaloosa. Should be a tough game though.

‘Bama 31, State 21

No.20 Texas A&M @ Auburn

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Pat Dye Field (87,451)

When: 6 PM CT

Network: ESPNU

Line: A&M by 14 1/2

AU is still trying to figure out who their starting quarterback will be. That’s a tough one. Do you go with Clint Moseley, who hasn’t been terrible, but just can’t seem to get you in the end zone enough? Or Kiehl Frazier, who has the talent, but just can’t get this offense down and struggles throwing the ball?  I’m at a loss here. Auburn needs to figure out something really quickly to get this offense going or there may be no wins in SEC play this year. I know the Tigers are going to run the ball a good bit with Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb, but they’ve got to be able to throw it some as well. I guess Chiz will decide based on today’s practice; it may be tomorrow or a game day decision. Frazier, to me, can make some more plays than Moseley can with his legs and with his arm. So I’d choose Kiehl. We’ll see what Chizik does (note: Clint Moseley was chosen as the starter Thursday evening).

Meanwhile, the defense will be severely tested by an offense that lights it up led by redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel. They’ve got some playmakers in the backfield and on the perimeter as well. They’re decent on defense. Can Auburn find some way to turn this disastrous season around? I don’t think they can this Saturday. A&M’s got too much explosiveness on offense and the quarterbacks haven’t given us any evidence that they can get the job done and lead their team to victory. So I’m going to go with the visitor. AU has a shot in this one, but I just don’t know if there is much enthusiasm left on the Plains; particularly if they fall behind on Saturday. Another tough night for the Tigers unfortunately.

A&M 35, AU 24

 

No.2 Florida vs. No.10 Georgia

Where: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Fl.  (84,000)

When: 2:30 PM CT

Network: CBS; Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, and, as usual, “The Wolf” on the sidelines

Line: Florida by 7

Georgia is 4-18 in this series since 1990 which has led Georgia football coach Mark Richt and others to call for the game to be played as a home and home series and alternately in Jacksonville and the Georgia Dome every four years. Jacksonville is located 342 miles from Athens and only 73 miles from Gainesville. But the ticket distribution is equal and the schools make $3.4 million every two years as opposed to making $2.2 million every two years if the game was played as a home and home series. But the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” is still in Jacksonville for now, and this game is a blockbuster as far as the SEC East race is determined this season. The winner of this game will more than likely win the East. If Florida wins they’ll clinch it, and if the ‘Dawgs win, they’ll have to win out in the SEC to claim the title. Georgia will still have a home game against Ole Miss and a road game at Auburn to finish off  the SEC slate, but those two games are very winnable and if the Dawgs can somehow pull this out, they’ll be highly motivated to finish this thing out. But the Gators are playing some of the best defense in the country, led by linebacker and defensive leader Jon Bostic, defensive backs Matt Elam and Loucheiz Purifoy, and stellar defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd. This Gator defense is tough, rugged and very opportunistic. The offense is good enough. Running back Mike Gillislee has been held in check on the ground the past two weeks, but quarterback Jeff Driskel threw four touchdowns against South Carolina last week. Both Driskel and Gillislee can really run it. The Gators also have playmakers in Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, Quinton Dunbar and Omarius Hines among others on the perimeter. They’re very good in special teams as well. Georgia has a very good football team. The lopsided loss to South Carolina was an aberration. Aaron Murray can light up a defense if he’s given time, and the young backs, Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, are explosive even though Kentucky held them in check last week. That was a surprise. Wide receivers Malcolm Mitchell, Marlon Brown  and particularly, Tavarres King, are game changers on the outside. The o line has been pretty good. The defense is a real mystery to me. There is so much talent over there with linebackers Jarvis Jones, Alex Ogletree, safety Bacarri Rambo and powerful nose guards Jon Jenkins and Kwame Geathers.  There is talent all over that side of the ball for the ‘Dawgs. The Gamecocks torched them though. But that was three weeks ago. They’ll be better against the Gators this time. I like Murray and the offense to get it done and the talented Georgia defense to come through as the ‘Dawgs get back on track with a huge one over the Gators. Just don’t trust the Gators totally. Think the ‘Dawgs are better.

‘Dawgs 27, Gators 24

Other games:

South Carolina 28, Tennessee 27

Missouri 31, Kentucky 24

Arkansas 28, Ole Miss 21

Kansas State 35, Texas Tech 24

UAB 38, Tulane 21

Vanderbilt 45, UMass 7

Oklahoma 31, Notre Dame 24

Ohio State 24, Penn State 20

 

 

Quick World Series thoughts and predictions

 (Zito vs. Verlander tonight)

Detroit Tigers vs. San Francisco Giants

Games one and two in San Francisco, Games three, four and five in Detroit, games six and seven in San Francisco

Game one tonight: 6:30 PM CT, FOX

 

RHP Justin Verlander (Detroit) vs LHP Barry Zito (Giants)

This is a terrific matchup of excellent starting pitching and some elite hitters, at least on the Tigers’ side. Giants second baseman Marcus Scutaro was 14-of-28 against the Cardinals in the League Championship Series. Are you kiddin me? That’s unreal. He had a .500 batting average. And that was in 28 at bats. Giants catcher Buster Posey is going to have to hit  the ball better for the Giants. The Giants are a better fielding team, but the Tigers have a slight edge in starting pitching.

Game one tonight in San Francisco features the exceptional right hander for Detroit, Justin Verlander, vs. left hander Bsrry Zito of the Giants. Zito has struggled over the last several years has found his game again. He pitched a beauty last Friday Night against the Cards going seven and 2/3 innings, allowing six hits, no runs with one walk and five Ks. Looked like the Barry Zito of the Oakland A’s days when he was almost unhittable at times. This is a key game tonight against two stellar guys on the mound. Verlander has been, well, Verlander. Won 17 games during the regular season and pitched 8.1 innings against the Yankees in AL Championship Series allowing three hits, one run, with no walks and three Ks. If he’s on, he could be extremely hard to beat.

The Tigers have the power with Miguel Cabrera, who won the Triple Crown in hitting, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished in 45 years since Carl Yaz did it in 1967. That’s an astounding feat. Prince Fielder and Delmon Young also bring a lot of power to the lineup for the Tigers.

On paper it looks like the Tigers should win. The pitching for the Giants of Zito, Ryan Vogelsong, who was 2-0 in the League Championship Series against the Cards with three walks and 13 Ks and an ERA of 1.29, and Matt Cain, who was 1-1 against the Cards with a 2.19 ERA. Maybe Tim Lincecum will wake up and be the Lincecum of years past. The bullpen is a little stronger for the Giants. Along with Verlander, the Tigers have Anibal Sanchez (1-0, seven innings, three hits, no runs, three BBs and seven Ks against Yankees), Max Scherzer (1-0, 1.59 ERA, with 2 BB’s and 10 Ks vs. Yankees) and Phil Coke  (0-0 against Yankees, no runs, three hits, no walks and four Ks in one outing, 5.2 innings).

It looks like the Tigers should on paper. But I like the National League this year. They won the All-Star game easily, and I think that carries weight. The Giants are the best team in the NL after getting very hot in the postseason. After a couple of slow starts in both the Division Series (2-0 deficit to the Reds) and the League Champ series (3-1 Cards), they came back and won them. They’re resilient and mentally tough. They won it two years ago. That experience will help them. I like Giants to win it all.

Giants in 6

Suh’s body slam of Jay


Wow, that was a pretty vicious play. And that’s the best way I can describe Ndamukong Suh; he’s a vicious competitor. Jay was body slammed by Suh in the second quarter and he laid on the turf for a couple of minutes afterwards. He came back in. A writer for the Chicago Trib said it shows you how fragile the NFL is. If Jay had cracked his ribs or broken a collar bone, he’s out for several weeks, maybe the season, and we’re in trouble. Luckily, Jay came back in the game in the second half. He said afterwards to Lisa Salters of ESPN that he’s got some sore ribs and that when he was going down, “I knew it wasn’t going to be pretty.” But that’s one of the things I love about Jay; he’s tough. If Jay is out for a while, Jason Campbell is our quarterback, and while Campbell is a tremendous upgrade from Caleb Hanie last year, you just don’t know if he could get the ball to Brandon Marshall like Jay can. Jay and Brandon just have an amazing chemistry. They’re both playmakers. You would lose that with Jason, even though he’s a pretty decent quarterback. Jay said it wasn’t a dirty hit, though Marshall tweeted that it was. The NFL deemed it clean, so that’s the end of that. I was just proud of the way we kept competing, particularly on defense.  Charles Tillman only allowed Calvin “Megatron” Johnson to catch three balls on 12 targets from Matthew Stafford. Megatron only had 45 yards receiving and no TDs.  Tillman is terrific. Matt Forte ran for 96 yards on 22 carries. Michael Bush had some nice runs. We ran for 171 yards on the night. As Jay said, their front four is so tough that you have to be able to establish the run to keep them from just teeing off on pass plays. Jay was only 16-of-31 for 150 yards with a seven-yard TD pass to Brandon, but he said he was not able to follow through on his throws in the second half because of his sore ribs. He did say there is no doubt he’s playing Sunday against Carolina. Just gotta keep the momentum going; need to get better in the passing game and keep the running game solid, if not spectacular at times, and the defense needs to keep doing what they’re doing. We recovered three fumbles, two in the red zone, and D.J. had an interception. They moved the ball on us; Stafford threw for 261. They ran the ball pretty well at times, but our defense bent but didn’t break. Detroit is a pretty good football team, so to grind out a 13-7 victory, was what we needed to do last night. We’ll get better in the passing game. I think it had a lot to do with Jay’s injury. After Carolina, which will be tough, because you never know, Cam could go off, then we have the Tennessee Titans on the road, the Houston Texans on a Sunday Night at home and then @ the 49ers on the following Monday Night. So a lot of work left. Just need a solid week of practice. Jay says he will practice Thursday. Bears off until Thursday to heal up. Good win though. Not Mozart, but good enough.

Good news on two fronts on Saturday

 (Zac, Briggs gettin’er done)
Got the win, which was critical; 17-13, over the Aubs. We also landed a 5.7, three-star wide receiver commit DeAndre Woods of Pinson, Alabama on Saturday. Huge pickup as we dropped one of our wr commits, Dominic Walker, when he became a soft verbal and kept taking visits to other schools. It may have been a mutual parting of the ways. DeAndre is 6’3″, 205 with 4.5 speed in the 40. 247 sports has him graded out as an 88, two points below a four-star, and he’s one tenth of a point below a four-star on Rivals at 5.7. DeAndre had offers from Auburn, Miss State, Arkansas, USC (Southern Cal), Purdue, Southern Miss and UAB. He actually committed to Miss. State in June, but decommitted in Aug. This year he has accounted for over 500 yards receiving and seven touchdowns for a very fine Clay-Chalkville team, which is 7-1 and has a shot at a state title this season if they can get by mighty Hoover and some other very good teams in Class 6A in Alabama, the highest football playing classification in the state. Clay was upset Friday Night by Huntsville, but they still are a very good football team. May have had the best team in the state last year, but due to what seemed to be an unfair ruling, had to forfeit nine games for playing an ineligible player. It was too bad because they looked primed for a state championship last year. They are definitely in the mix this year, even though I don’t think anybody can beat Hoover.  They are the Alabama of high school football in this state.

Last year, DeAndre caught 36 passes for 460 yards and 10 touchdowns. His sophomore season, he posted over 400 receiving yards and six TDs.

Looks like an excellent pickup. DeAndre is our 22nd commit. So we have one and, I believe at the most, two spots left. Would like to reel in L3 and another running back. There is a senior running back out of Mobile, Alabama, St Paul’s High School, Jordan Huff, who is gaining some interest by our staff. Jordan tore an ACL last year, but is back on the field this year and is making good progress. He’s got some smaller offers (Arkansas State and some others), but St. Paul’s is a very good program that produces excellent football players. A couple of my VU friends went there and I’m very familiar with it through them and from my covering high school football in Alabama for a lot of years. St. Paul’s is excellent. It is a school that  produced Mark Barron, who was a first round draft pick out of Alabama in 2012 by the Tampa Bay Bucs. He was the seventh player selected in the draft. And they always have other Division one players. Jordan could be a guy to watch. We could use another running back. Would like to see Warren Norman get another shot next year if this year doesn’t work out. He’s still a very talented player. Not sure what’s going on there.

DeAndre is our fourth wide receiver commit joining Rivals four-star Carlos Burse and solid three-stars Latevius Rayford (5.6 three-star) and Gerald Perry (5.6, three-star). We also have six solid three-star defensive backs in this class. James and his staff focused on getting playmakers on both sides of the ball in this class. The dbs are 5.7, 3-star Jalen Banks, 5.7 Tre Bell, 5.6 Taurean Ferguson, 5.6 Malik Greaves, 5.7 Darrius Sims and 5.7 Ryan White. Bell, Banks and Sims are corners and White, Ferguson and Greaves are safeties. Again, 5.7 is the highest rating you can get as a three star. Would love to add L3 to that list (Leon McQuay III). We also have a four-star quarterback committed and a high three-star qb, who may become a four-star before the year is out. After watching Chad Kanoff’s  film and looking at his stats, he looks like he could be a four-star like Johnathon McCrary out of Georgia, our four-star qb. We have a real fine  three-star running back committed in Rudy Ford, who is tearing it up in high school in New Hope, Al. right now, two solid three-star tight ends, four three-star defensive ends, a four-star and a solid three-star linebacker  and a very fine 5.7 three-star defensive tackle in Jay Woods. He’s high three-star according to Rivals and 247 Sports, and a four-star by Scout.

About the game. I thought we played very well except for the three fumbles. We should have won by double digits. Zac was outstanding running for 169 yards and a score. He’s stellar. Would love to see Zac on an NFL team next year. He looks like he fits the bill to be a starter eventually in the NFL. But I know how Zac is and he’s not worried about the NFL right now. He’s such a humble, focused guy and he and his teammates want to go to another bowl game this year and finish with eight wins. 8-4 would be spectacular after the team’s start in which we played four very tough opponents in our first six games: South Carolina, Northwestern, Georgia and Florida.

Jordan Rodgers played a solid game completing 15-of-25 for 173 yards with no interceptions. No TDs, but no ints. Played well. Thought Jordan Matthews (3 catches-46 yards) and Chris Boyd (6-77) had solid games at wide out. The line was awesome. Jordan didn’t get sacked once and we ran for 226 yards. Really like what Coach Herb Hand does with this group. They did the same thing last year; just keep getting better as the season progressed and that’s what they’re doing this year. Not the biggest group out there by any means, but tough, hard-nosed and aggressive. Like this group a lot. Very well coached, too, and most all of them are coming back along with the six true talented freshmen we have on the roster, most of whom are being redshirted. Defense was solid led by stellar linebacker Chase Garnham. Chase with nine tackles, three and a half for 14 yards lost, and three sacks. He was all world. Walker May played a good game, too. We’ve got some good players from Alabama. Zac is from Bibb County, Walker is from Briarwood Christian in Birmingham and Chase is from Fairhope High School in South Alabama near Mobile.

I said this summer I thought we had a good football team and we do. We just have to eliminate those turnovers. If we can play clean games and run the ball well with Zac mixed in with some good play action passes and some deep balls, and play defense like we did on Saturday, we have a shot to win the rest of our games. Got UMass this weekend, and while they’re not a very good team, we need to play well, take care of business and  keep the momentum going. The game is on Fox Sports South at 7 PM ET/ 6CT. Then we go to Ole Miss, go to Kentucky, Tennessee at home and Wake closes out the season on the road. All of these games are winnable. And they are  losable,  too. We’ve got to play our best every Saturday from now on starting with UMass. We can’t take any team for granted.  We’re not where we can just bring our B game and win. We can’t do that. We need an A game every time out. We’ve got work to do if we want to get to another bowl game and keep all these fine commitments.

Finally, the Bears host the Lions tonight at 8:30 PM ET/ 7:30 CT. You will be looking live from Soldier Field as the Monsters of the Midway host the Motor City boys. The debate is tonight too. Why would they have a debate on simultaneously with Monday Night football?  If the Bears weren’t playing I might watch the debate, but the Bears are playing so it’s no contest. Will pickup Romney-Obama at halftime. Saturday Night Live has been doing some classic skits on these debates. I look more forward to SNL more than I do the debates themselves, though I have enjoyed debates.

Jay, Brandon Marshall, Devin Hester, Matt Forte and hopefully Earl, need to do some work tonight, and the defense just needs to keep being the Bears’ defense, which is outstanding. Would like to see Urlacher get back to form. Hope he will. But Lance Briggs and cCharles Tillman are playing exceptionally right now. They are phenomenal at linebacker and cornerback respectively. Julius Peppers is playing well and will get it going even more without a doubt at dend, and Henry Melton has become an absolute stud at defensive tackle. Wow, these guys can  play some defense. If Jay and his offensive mates do their part, this could be a special season for Lovie’s guys.

Tonight:

Us 31, Motown 24

Wow, McCarron to Cooper looks like the best combo in college football

 (Amari Cooper looks like a Julio-type, maybe better.)
A.J. was unreal on Saturday Night in Knoxville. So was Amari Cooper. A.J., to me, has put himself in the Heisman race with a spectacular performance on Saturday Night. A.J. was 17-of-22 for 306 yards and four more TDs. A.J. now is 106-of-154  (69%) for1,476 yards, 16 TDs and 0 ints on the season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 238 attempts dating back to last year’s Mississippi State game after Saturday’s game against UT. He did throw three ints in the A-Day game, but he threw it 42 times, completed 29 and threw for two TDs against some pretty stout defensive players. These numbers are out the roof. Amari caught seven passes for 162 yards and two TDs. One of his TDs, a leaping 54-yard grab which he took into the end zone, was as beautiful as the Eli Manning to Victor Cruz 77-yard TD pass that won the game for the Giants over the Redskins yesterday. If you didn’t see that one, that was spectacular and so was Amari’s. Amari is a special player that is for sure. He’s a freshman who looks like an All-American right now. Is he better than Julio? I think he has a chance. Julio is one of the most dynamic players to ever play wide receiver at ‘Bama and is tearing it up with the Falcons this season, but Amari looks just as good and may even have better hands than Julio. A.J.’s knee looked fine as he was flying down the field to shoulder bump Amari after the 54-yard TD pass.

T.J. Yeldon ran for 129 yards and two touchdowns and Eddie Lacy ran for 79 without a TD. The offensive line is fantastic. I will officially put A.J. on my Heisman watch list. There is still time. This thing is usually not decided till the last couple of weeks of the season and it’s changes constantly from week to week. A.J. put his hat  in the ring after that performance. Collin Klein is the leader after Saturday’s performance against a weak West Virginia defense in which he threw for three TDs and ran for four more. He’s a heckuva player, but A.J., to me, is much more of a pure passer. A.j. can’t run like Klein and he has some first round draft picks around him; if not this year, whenever they come out. Chance Warmack is first round in 2013. Barrett Jones is borderline and I bet he will be a first rounder. D.j. Fluker has a shot. Anthony Steen is the underrated guy on the line; he’s a player. Cyrus Kouandijo will be a first rounder when he comes out after next year most likely; but the Tide will have him for 2013. And some of these other receivers like Kenny Bell, Kevin Norwood andChristion and Cyrus Jones are underrated. And Amari is definitely a first rounder, but that won’t happen for another two years after this season which I know ‘Bama fans are happy about. So A.J. has the line and the weapons, but he is flat out gettin it done. If he keeps this up, he’s first round material next April.

Defense was solid with C.j. Mosley playing an excellent game and Robert Lester with an awesome interception. ESPN analyst Todd Blackledge said during the game that there are no first rounders on this defense, but collectively they’re the best unit in college football. No doubt about that. Florida and LSU are good, Florida probably better than LSU, but I like the Tide defense the best. I would say C.J. has a shot to be a first rounder next April, Robert Lester will go early second or middle second and Dee Milliner could be a first rounder. There are plenty of top four round draft choices in this bunch. And, more importantly to Alabama fans, they’re the most dominant defense in college football this year. Maybe not as talented as last year or 2009, but pretty doggone good.

But enough of the draft talk. It’s time to focus on the rest of the season. Mississippi State comes to T-town this weekend for a pretty competitive matchup. The Bulldogs are playing well and playing with a lot of confidence. They have good balance with a quarterback, Tyler Russell, playing solid ball, making a lot of excellent throws and not making mistakes. He’s a similar qb to A.J. though not as good. State has some solid wide receivers and a pretty good running game led by LaDarius Perkins. Their oline is solid, and their defense is good led by first round draft pick Jonathan Banks, a superior cornerback. He’ll probably matchup on Amari which will be interesting. They have another pretty solid corner in Darius Slay, so they’ll make A.J. work hard. ‘Bama is in for a pretty good fight here. I like them to get this done, but it’s not going to be easy. Dan Mullen is doing a solid job at State and the future looks bright in Starkville. Alabama will have their work cut out for them Saturday Night. When I asked a young high school player, who was very intelligent and  a very good linebacker,  about five years ago when his team was undefeated three quarters of the way through the season, what was the key to keep it going. He listed a couple of things and then the last thing he said was: “We’ve got to stay humble.” Now that is something the Tide has to do. They have to prepare every week like each game is the biggest game of their lives and then play that way. Staying humble is the key to me for this Crimson Tide team.

Auburn is just done. They’ve become irrelevant. And they’ve got to do something about it. I wrote a satirical piece last week on hiring Bobby Petrino and while I don’t think Auburn should do that for integrity reasons, there are coaches out there they can get. They’re out there. The offensive coordinator for Florida, Brent Pease, really impresses me. He has gotten Florida back to playing very well on offense. He would be a good candidate. I hate to close the book on Chizik, but after losing on Saturday to Vandy, that  sealed his fate. Vandy should have beaten Auburn by a couple of touchdowns really if it wasn’t for some costly fumbles and some questionable play-calling. Auburn is just spiraling downhill and it doesn’t look like they’ll recover. They play Texas A&M and Georgia at home and Alabama on the road for their last three SEC games. They’ve got a couple of kick in non-conference foes in between, Alabama A&M and New Mexico State. But it looks like Chizik is done. It’ll be a little expensive to let him go, but the buyout is not as  bad for Auburn as it’s only $200K and change a month till 2015 and he’ll probably land another job and that salary will be subtracted from the monthly buyout payments. He’ll land somewhere as a defensive coordinator or as a commentator. I feel sorry for the guy, but his 5-19 record coming into Auburn from Iowa State should have raised a caution flag to begin with. I’m not going to get into how Cam Newton came to Auburn, but it was under questionable circumstances that Auburn won a national title. The Chizik era should be over. Auburn needs to start over. They’ve got a very solid recruiting class, so the key is keeping these players and adding a few more. Rivals has Auburn ninth and 247 Sports has AU seventh in the recruiting rankings and both have Auburn with three, five-star recruits in defensive tackles Dee Liner and Carl Lawson and linebacker Reuben Foster, who is a beast according to what I’ve heard.

But Gene Chizik is not going to get Auburn where it needs to go. He doesn’t impress me at all in his interviews. He always states the obvious, but never has any specifics on how to adjust or correct things. He doesn’t seem able mentally to do that. After his wife wrote that crazy stuff on Facebook a couple of weeks ago, I do question’s Chizik’s intelligence, both as a football coach and as a person. He can’t get results out of his team. It’s just not working out. I’m not sure who could replace Chizik, but there needs to be a change. Brent Pease is a guy who deserves an interview. He has turned Jeff Driskel into a solid SEC quarterback and has turned that Florida offense into a pretty good unit. He’s still got some work left to make the Florida offense stellar, but he’s done an excellent job so far.  Their defense is very good too, but their offense has really made a 180 since last year. He was terrific at Boise State as well. He had a very fine offensive head coach in Chris Peterson at Boise, but Will Muschamp is a defensive guru, and he’s left the offense up to Pease. And Pease has excelled. He could be a strong candidate and Auburn may not have to pay him as much as they would a Bobby Petrino or a Butch Davis or a Jon Gruden, whose name always comes up in coaching searches. Could be a possibility.

Florida looks legit. They are solid. Kansas State looks very legit. Bill Snyder is an exceptional coach and Collin Klein a tremendous quarterback and leader for K-State. Oregon has that blazing speed and a pretty solid defense this year with some playmakers on defense,  some big, strong safeties and linebackers, who have combined for 13 ints on the season led by Avery Patterson who has three, and a great pass rusher in defensive end Dion Jordan, who has seven tackles for loss for 26 yards and five sacks on the season. They are excellent. Oklahoma looks like they’re back in the picture. They play a big game against Notre Dame this weekend in Norman, and I think the Sooners will beat  the Irish by 10 to 14 points, maybe more. The Irish are good, but not great. Oklahoma has it going after crushing Texas two weeks ago, 63-21. Pretty impressive offensive bunch.

So there are some very good teams out there. Alabama looks great to me, but there is a lot of work left.  K-State and Oregon look like they’re special and Florida is close. Oklahoma could get there. Some people are talking about Southern Cal, but I don’t see it. Oregon will dispose of USC when they play.  Oregon State is undefeated, too, but they’re not as good as these other  teams. LSU not totally out of it, but I just don’t like this team near as much as their team last year. Just seem to be missing something on offense, and while they’re good on defense, don’t think they’re great like they were last year.

Anyway, a lot of good stuff coming up this weekend. Here is the SEC schedule this weekend. Florida-Georgia is the marquee game with Alabama-Miss State right there. I don’t know what to think of Georgia. They’re always a mystery under Mark Richt. Never know what you’re going to get year to year from the ‘Dawgs.They have the talent to be elite it seems like, but they never seem to get it done under Richt.  They just got by Kentucky, 29-24. Probably looking ahead. This should be a pretty good football game. Georgia is capable of beating Florida. They have the talent. If they do, they’re in the drivers’ seat for the East title. But Florida is going to be tough for them. They have a better offense than Florida, but not as good of a defense. And that will probably tip the scales for the Gators.

Will have predictions on Thursday. In the meantime will have some more stuff as it comes up this week.

Mississippi State @Alabama, 7:30 PM CT, ESPN

Texas A&M @ Auburn, 6 PM CT, ESPNU

Florida @Georgia (Jacksonville), 2:30 PM CT, CBS

Tennessee @ South Carolina, 11 AM CT, ESPN

Kentucky @ Missouri, 11 AM CT, ESPNU

Ole Miss @ Arkansas, 11:21 AM CT, SEC Network

UMass @ Vanderbilt, 6 PM CT, Fox Sports South

Key National games:

No.14 Texas Tech @No.3 Kansas State, 2:30 PM CT, FOX

No.5 Notre Dame @ No.8 Oklahoma, 7 PM CT, ABC

‘Bama tries to keep churning out wins; AU in an interesting one in Music City

 (Eddie and T.J. should have their way with UT rush defense)
I watched Oregon last night to get a good gauge on their team. The buzz about the Ducks is their two running backs, Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas. The Sun Devils decided they were going to key on them, and while Barner had a 70-yarder for a touchdown to open the scoring for the Ducks, Thomas was pretty much held in check. But quarterback Marcus Mariota reeled off an 86-yard TD run and showed some eletrifying speed of his own. The Ducks also had four ints on defense for 111 yards. They have some big, strong defensive backs, who are the strength of their defense. They also have a prolific pass rusher in Dion Jordan, who had two sacks last night and has racked up five on the season in seven games. The Ducks beat Arizona State last night 43-21, but it was over at halftime as they were leading 43-7 and just kind of let up in the second half, which you can’t do against a quality opponent.

The reason I talk about the Ducks is because they have a pretty decent shot at running the table and playing for the national title game. Their biggest tests will come against Stanford at home, on the road at USC, and on the road at Oregon State, which may be their toughest challenge. But those are very winnable games. Then they’ll play in the Pac-12 championship game against possibly USC. That’s actually pretty tough sledding, but if this team can stay healthy, they have a good shot at playing in the national title game at the Orange Bowl on January 7, 2013. Alabama could very well be their opponent, but both have a lot of work left. Kansas State is certainly not out of it. If they can get by West Virginia at Morgantown, West Va. tomorrow they’re seriously in the discussion. Notre Dame a player as well. And Florida. If Florida can get by South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State will be in the only two teams standing in their way of a perfect regular season.  Then they’d probably play ‘Bama in the SEC championship game if ‘Bama can navigate through the rest of their schedule with UT tomorrow, State next week at home and at Baton Rouge on Nov.3. A one-loss team like Florida State or Oklahoma could get back in the hunt if things work out their way with them winning out and other undefeated teams losing.

Now onto Alabama-Tennessee:

Last week: 8-2; Overall: 66-23 (74%)

N0.1 ‘Bama @ UT

Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville (102,456 capacity)

When: 6 PM CT

Network: ESPN

Line: ‘Bama by 20

How is A.J. McCarron’s knee doing? That is the major question for the Tide this week. It was reported earlier in the week that he had a torn meniscus. A.J., his family and the Alabama people refuted that fiercely. I did watch him on film in drills this week and he was moving slowly. The reporter for College Football News who reported the story, said that A.J. can play with a meniscus tear, but it gets worse the more you play on it. It may just be a bruise as Alabama is reporting. Alabama is hopeful of that. But A.J. will play tomorrow night and he and his team should be good to go on offense in this one. Alabama is No.1 in the country in many defensive categories, including scoring defense and total defense. Have 11 ints on the season, too, third best in the country. The offensive line is hitting its stride and it looks like Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon are too. A.J. may not need to do much as UT is 81st in rushing defense nationally allowing 178 yards per game on the ground, and is 90th in scoring defense allowing 31.50 points per game. Alabama is allowing seven points per game. Alabama just needs to take care of business here. The secondary will be tested by UT quarterback Tyler Bray and receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Justin Hunter. Patterson is a flat out stud and can make so much happen after he catches the ball and on kick returns. Had a 90+ yard kickoff return for a touchdown against State last Saturday Night. Hunter is still a terrific player, so expect Bray to target him more tomorrow night. But with as outstanding as UT’s passing game can be– and they have a solid Oline that has only given up three sacks, tops in the conference–their defense is just not good enough to stop the Tide. This will be a good test for the Tide secondary and the defensive line to see if they can get some pressure on Bray and take some of the pressure off the dbs. Should be a pretty good game, but like Alabama to pull away in the second half and keep marching toward an SEC west crown and possible greatness once again.

‘Bama 42, UT 24

 

Auburn @ Vandy

Where: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nash Vegas (40,000 approximately)

When: 11:21 AM CT

Network: SEC Network (WTTO-21 in Birmingham)

Line: Vandy by 7

Now that’s a new one. Vanderbilt favored over AU by seven? Are you kiddin me? The ‘Dores are better, playing hard and James Franklin is trying to build a winner at VU, which is tough to do. AU is going to be angry coming into this game. They’re tired of the criticism, tired of the harrassment. I think they’re going to play well. Will that be good enough to win? Quite possibly. Clint Moseley gets the start, and Moseley has not been consistent but neither has Jordan Rodgers for the ‘Dores, so that’s a wash. Auburn will try to pound the ball on the ground with Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb. Moseley needs to throw some and avoid mistakes. Defense has got to get better against the run as Vanderbilt has a pretty good run game. James Franklin is recruiting well and the team is playing hard this year, like they always have. They just don’t have enough size on the defensive line to compete with the olines of the SEC. Zac Stacy is a quality running back and he’ll get his yards. I’m deciding this outcome as I write. I’m not sure if I’m going with my heart or my head here, but I’ll take the ‘Dores in a very close one.

Vandy 20, AU 17

 

No.7 South Carolina @ No.2 Florida

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field, Gainesville, Fl. (90,000+)

When; 2:30 CT

Network: CBS, Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and “The Wolf” broadcast team

Line: Florida by 4

It looks like Marcus Lattimore is doubtful for the game with a hip injury, but you never know. He may play. There are some other guys who are banged up for the Gamecocks.  Jadeveon Clowney will probably play but he’s banged up and a couple of  dlinemen are out. Three or four guys including standout wide receiver Bruce Ellington have had the flu bug this week, so it’s been a tough week for SC. Florida is cruising right along. Are they the No.2 team in the country? Maybe, maybe not, but the more wins they get, the more confidence they’ll get  and they could see themselves playing in the SEC title game with a chance to go to the big game if they win that. Though even if they do win the East, they have to play Florida State in Tallahassee to close out the season which will be tough. But the Gators look like the better team here. If SC were healthy, I might give them the nod, but Florida is playing pretty well on offense led by quarterback Jeff Driskel, who’s not a prolific passer by any means, but can really run it. He’s built like Cam and he’s fast like Cam, and he can really make things happen on the ground. Mike Gillislee is a high quality running back. Florida will try to ground and pound like LSU did last week. SC is just a beaten up team right now. With their depleted squad, I just don’t think they have enough to stop a Gator team that could very well be  the second best team in the country though Oregon has a good argument there. Gators  top five team though for sure.

Gators 24, SC 17

 

No.6 LSU @ No. 18 Texas A&M

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas (83, 002)

When: 11 AM CT

Network: ESPN

Line: LSU by 3

Interesting matchup here in the SEC West. LSU got a must win over SC last week in Death Valley for SEC West and national purposes, and got their running game going. Freshman Jeremy Hill looks like a player. He ran for 124  yards last week and two touchdowns, including a 50-yarder that pretty much clinched the game. Spencer Ware had a nice game running the ball and Kenny Hilliard and Michael Ford were effective. LSU is back to their identity which is pounding you on the ground. A&M won 59-57 over La Tech in a wild one. Redshirt freshman Johnny Manziel is a stud at quarterback for the Aggies, but he didn’t do as well against a stout Florida defense in an opening game loss to the Gators at Kyle Field, 20-17, But  A&M did go toe to toe with the Gators for most of the game. LSU’s defense is just as good as Florida’s, and A&M’s is struggling a little bit after the La Tech game, but they’ve been pretty decent this year. In a pretty tight game like this, I’m going to go with the better defense. Manziel is hard to stop and he’s going to be an outstanding quarterback in the SEC, but LSU can neutralize him and they’ll pound it on the ground and wear down the Aggie defense.

LSU 24, A&M 20

 

No.4 Kansas State @ No. 13 West Virginia

Where: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown, West Va. (60,000)

When: 6 PM CT

Network: FOX, Gus Johnson and Charles Davis on the call

Line: West Va by 2 1/2

 

This game lost a little bit of its luster when West Virginia got smoked by Tubby and Texas Tech last Saturday, but it’s still a big time game. Morgantown is a tough place to win, but if any team can do it besides Alabama, Florida and Oregon, it’s Kansas State. Collin Klein is the most valuable player in the country and the senior quarterback to me looks like he could win the Heisman. Geno Smith could get right back in the thick of things in the Heisman race with a big night tomorrow night. Smith is a prolific passer and Klein just does everything well. There’s not a player in the country who makes his team better than Klein does. While West Virginia is capable of exploding on offense, I like K-State’s team better overall. They play well in all three phases of the game and always seem to find a way to get it done. Like Coach Bill Snyder and his qb, Klein, to get the job done in Morgantown and stay right in the thick of things for the BCS. But this is going to be an offensive arsenal of a game.

K-State 35, West Virginia 34


Other games:

Georgia 52, Ky 7

Ms. State 42, Middle Tennessee 31

Clemson 45, Va Tech 35

Texas Tech 28, TCU 27

Notre Dame 24, Brigham Young 21

Michigan 35, Michigan State 20

Florida State 42, Miami (Fl) 24

 

 

 

A conversation with Bobby

 (The next Auburn coach?)
 

Jimmy Rane calls Bobby Petrino and conferences in Pat Dye and Bobby Lowder.

“Hello.”

“Bobby, it’s Jimmy here down at Auburn.”

Petrino: “Hey, Jimmy, what’s up?”

Yella Wood: Well, you may know why I’m calling Bobby. What you been up to.”

Petrino: “Just got off a ride with a couple of coeds down at Arkansas State. Gus set me up pretty good down there, but as Larry said a while back, ‘Keep it down home Cuz.’ “

Wood: “Just a couple of dadgum steaks and that kid reported us to that 60 minutes program!. But that’s for another time. BIg Boy, I’ve got Pat and Bobby conferenced in with us.”

Dye: Hey Bobby, good to talk with you. You hangin in there?”

Petrino: Yeah Pat I’m good. Ready to get back in the business though.”

Lowder: “Well young man, we’ve got a little proposition for you. We want you to be our next coach.”

Petrino: What about Chiz? He’s such a stellar coach? (Laughter).

Dye: Yeah, I told ol’ Finebaum that we really love him that he’s our coach forever. Wanted to pull a fast one over on him and his listeners. You know that Finebaum, he’s got a lot of power so I’ve got to use him when I need  to.”

Lowder:”Bobby, we’re ready  to win and kick some Saban backside. I’ve had enough of this and I speak for Pat, Jimmy and the rest of the family.”

Yella: “Milton’s in too, but he’s got to take care of that Strange character in Montgomery. He’s been greasin some palms around the state though. You know ol’ Milton. He knows how to get things done. Glad we got rid of that Gilley canary.”

Dye: “Bobby, we want you on board. Players will be no problem. Got some ministers in Georgia who have some five star sons. One’s a quarterback. They’ll get some care packages if you know what I mean.”

Petrino: “That’s what I need to hear. I need that commitment. I would say I’m glad y’all are all in, but I don’t want to refer to that guy who loses all the time.”

Dye: “We don’t either. Man, Bobby, if I was 10 years younger I’d come in and be your defensive coordinator. Now we’d win some championships. But we can buy some coaches. That won’t be any problem. Just gotta get rid of this guy and his lunatic wife.”

Lowder: “I think she handles snakes in Sand Mountain. Got to with some of those comments.”

Dye: Wish I could put a couple rattlers from my farm in her mailbox. That’d shut her up.”

Petrino: So when are y’all comin up?

Lowder: “Jet touches down in Little Rock at 11 hundred. Need you there Bobby.”

Yella: “Got some stock options in my company, Bobby. You can do some cowboy commercials with me in the summer that we’ll put out in the farm. Got some real good ideas on that.”

Petrino: “What about coeds?”

Dye: “Got you covered hoss.”

Petrino: “OK, I’m interested. What about money.”

Lowder: Don’t you worry about that big boy. We’ll have you well covered. There’s a cheerleader or two we’ve already talked to as well. So you’re good in that department.”

Petrino: “When can I start?”

Dye: “We’ll get all in, all-out after the season and you can take right over.”

Yella: “We’ll get you close to some Tuscaloosa numbers in that contract, hoss, and once you start beating that boy from Tuscaloosa, we’ll pay you more than him.”

Petrino: “I’m in.”

Lowder: “OK, the three of us will be there tomorrow. We’re making sure Gogue and Jacobs don’t know about this. They think they’re going to decide this, but we’ve already decided and they’ll be forced to go along.”

Petrino: “I’m good.”

Dye: “OK, we’ll be there at wha, Bobby 15 hundred?”

Lowder: “Pat I just said 11 hundred.”

Dye: “Oh, I was just fiddlin with my Finebaum show. Got him on the other line. Trying to do two things at once.”

Yella: “So it’s a deal, Bobby?”

Bobby: “Jimmy  (Sexton) and I will see you in the morning.”

Lowder: “We’ll be there big boy. Welcome to the family.”

Dye: “You’ll have your players, Bobby. You just gotta win. None of this 8-5 stuff, that we’ve been getting lately. Tired of that. Looks like 2-10 this year. That’s not going to happen with you is it?”

Petrino: “I’ll get it done.”

Yella: “That’s all I ask, big boy, just get’er done.”

Lowder: “OK, hoss, tomorrow at 11.”

Petrino: “You got it.”

 

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