Olympic Club is a tremendous venue for the 112th playing of the United States Open, and this year’s tournament, like all of the majors in the last three or four years, is wide open as far as who will win. Olympic is playing 7,170 yards. No. 15 is a 670 yard par-five. Bubba Watson said in one of his practice rounds he hit driver, driver and was still 60 yards short. Birdies will be at a premium. Pars may be at more of a premium. Lee Janzen won here in 1998 at even par. Looks like even or maybe even 1 over or 2 over will win it. Whoever keeps it in the fairway the most (driving accuracy) and can sink some critical putts, will win this bear of a venue. I had the very good fortune of playing Olympic in 1999 as a guy asked me on when I was out there, and it’s a magnificent course. I thought when I hit the turn at nine, that I had just died and gone to Heaven. It was 65 degrees, the sky was clear as a whistle, the oak trees were fantastically colored in front of the pristine green and blue backdrop and the course was plush and a beautiful green. It was hard now. No.2, the 428 yard par-four, is like driving in a cave with trees lined all along each wall of the cave. Tough, tough driving hole. The course is very, very  tight. I went 49-42 and was pretty pleased with my backside as I got up and down a lot. That’ll be another key for these guys, getting up and down. Got to chip well on this course. Eighteen is the terrific finishing hole, that’s not long at 344 yards, but puts a premium on accuracy off the tee and the green slopes from back to front. An approach that lands on the front of the green is probably coming back down in the fairway. If you’re above the hole you have a very slick putt that if you knock it by the hole you could go a long way past. You can score anywhere from birdie to triple bogey. Par is a very good score on 18.
So who will win? I’ve got six guys. Rory has the game of course. If he’s accurate off the tee, he’ll be right there. His putting hurt him last week at Memphis, so if he hasn’t gotten that fixed, don’t think he can win. He’s in there though. Luke Donald, with his accuracy and putting is certainly in the hunt. To me though, Luke as solid of a player he is on the regular stops, just can’t do enough to win majors. Maybe he breaks through this time.

You’ve got to put Phil in there. I’m sure he wants to win an Open so badly as that’s a title that has eluded him over the years with a lot of frustrating finishes. Just seemed like he had it at Winged Foot in 2006 and was on the verge of winning his third major in a row after winning the 2005 PGA and the ’06 Masters. But he made an error on the 18th tee going with driver and doubled 18 losing the tournament by a shot to Geoff Ogilvy. He’s had some heartbreak at Bethpage Black and the amazing putt on 18 by Payne Stewart on Pinehurst No. 2 to defeat Phil by a shot in 1999. Phil needs to get it done pretty soon or the opportunities are going to run out for the hall of famer who will be 42 tomorrow. That would be a nice story if Phil gets it done.

Tiger, of course, is in there after his recent brilliance at the Memorial. That was his fifth time to win at the Memorial.  It’s another course he’s owned like Bay Hill, where he won his seventh Arnold Palmer title in March. Can Tiger be accurate enough to handle the precision required to play Olympic? Can he putt well enough? He could. Just still not sure what you’re going to get with Tiger in the majors. He could be there at the end with a chance to win it. Not sure he’s the closer he once was. He’s not a guarantee like he used to be. The most dominant talent in golf since Nicklaus, he still may be on his way back but not there yet. He may get it all the way back this weekend. Certainly a favorite.

Another guy I like who’s under the radar, but is one of the best ball strikers on the tour is Louis Oosthuizen. The South African made into a playoff with Bubba at the Masters and is a very solid player and good putter. His accuracy should put him right in the thick of things and he’s pretty long. Like Louis’ chances.

Bubba not one of my favorites this week because of his driving accuracy. Longest hitter on the tour, but not real accurate at 79th in driving accuracy. Think that will plague him at Olympic.

I’m going with Jason Dufner. He has played a lot this year and he’s learned from his near miss at the PGA last year. He’s an excellent ball striker and when he’s on, which has been a lot recently, he is outstanding. Putts well. Just solid all around game. Duffner over Tiger, Phil and Louis by a shot or two to capture his first major. Would be a nice thing for Auburn University (Dufner an AU graduate) after the tragic weekend last week.

It will be great to be an Auburn Tiger on Sunday as Jason Dufner (pictured above) captures 112th U.S. Open.

Terrific field of 76 players for the tournament. Shoal Creek will be playing 7,197 yards. Very good distance for any tour. This is a really big deal. The second of the five majors on the Champions Tour. Roger Chapman of England won the Senior PGA Championship two weeks ago. A lot of players call the Regions Tradition the Masters of the Senior Tour. The courses are similar in a lot of ways. Should be a fantastic event for Shoal Creek and the city. The course is in top condition, the tee boxes are green and perfectly manicured, the fairways are plush as are the greens. I bet the greens will be stimping about 11 or 12. The 12th hole was the downfall for Mark Calcavecchia last year, who looked like he may have the tournament wrapped up going to the 12th on Sunday. But he double bogeyed the difficult par four Saturday  Sunday, after double bogeying it on Saturday allowing Tom Lehman to get back in it. Lehman had a critical birdie on 15 from about 12 feet and worked his way out of trouble on 17 after hitting his drive on the par five into the woods. Lehman defeated Peter Senior on the first playoff hole, the par-4 18th. Lehman, to me, is a favorite again. Tremendous player who is pretty long, very  accurate, which it takes on Shoal, and a very good putter.
I try to say there is one key hole, but they’re all key. Nine, the number one handicap hole on the course, will be an important hole and pose a difficult challenge, as the players try to clear the lake on their second shot. They’ll probably be hitting from 160-165 yards. Challenging shot there. The par-3 16th will probably play around 200 yards and is a critical hole late in the tournament. It’s a tough par. Pros are going to have to survive the 16th with pars most likely. And 18, to me, is as fine and challenging finishing hole as you can find in the country. It’s a beautiful hole, the par-four, which will probably play around 400. The tee shot is critical as there is sand on the right and trees and woods on the left. The players will face a second shot to a well-bunkered green. The green slopes from left to right. Anything right could go down in the swale and be a very difficult up and down for the players. Depending on the pin location, that second shot will really test the players. A back center to back left pin placement will be fierce. One and two are difficult driving holes. One is bunkered on the left withwoods on the right. Very tight driving hole. Two is tight as well. A solid drive down the middle can end up in the sand. You need to just hit it down the middle on one; not much margin for error there. On two, you need to aim at the trap straight ahead of you and try to cut it. Second shot to one is challenging particularly if the pin is on the back left of the green, which I’m sure it will be a couple of days. Two’s green slopes from left to right. If the pin is back left, which I know it will be one or two days, that’s tough. Fourteen is my favorite hole. Beautiful scenery of the mountains and a pristine elevated tee shot on the par four. Pretty good scoring hole. Should be an awesome tournament. Happy for Shoal Creek, pro Eric Williamson, and his staff, who can really put on a tournament. Last year was a fantastic tournament with exceptional golf. This year should be as well.

Here are  seven guys whom I think can win the Tradition:

1.Kenny Perry: Longest driver on the tour at 296.5 yards. Young gun on the senior tour. Perry won in Naples back in February at the ACE Group Classic, so he’ll be a threat to win. If you remember, he was, at 49, in a playoff for the Masters back in 2009. He fell to Angel Cabrera. He had a chance to win it on the 18th, but bogeyed, losing in a heartbreaker. Like Perry as a factor at Shoal.

2.Tom Lehman: Hasn’t won this year, but leads the tour in greens hit in regulation. I like the defending champion to have a shot at winning again this year.

3. John Cook: When Cookie gets hot, he can be a dominating player. Has all the tools to win at Shoal. He’s pretty long, hits his irons solid and can putt very well when he’s got it going. See him having a real shot here.

4. Michael Allen: Leading the race for the Charles Schwab Cup which pays one million to the winner at the end of the year. Third in putts per round at 28.56, which is always critical in a major. Has already won at the Encompass Insurance Pro Am in Tampa.

5. Fred Funk: Leads the tour in driving accuracy, a critical stat at Shoal Creek. A younger guy on the tour who doesn’t hit it very far, but highly accurate and putts very well.

6. Bernhard Langer: Playing solid golf. Langer won the Masters twice;  in 1985 and again in ’93. That’s pretty impressive stuff. Shoal is similar to Augusta National in a lot of ways: layout of the course and the large greens. Langher won the Senior British Open Championship in July of 2010 and backed that up by winning the U.S. Senior Open in August of that year. Nice player. Nice putter with the long stick.

7. Jay Haas: Has won three majors on the Champions Tour. Won nine times on the PGA tour and has won 16 times on the Champions. Haas won the Principal Charity Classic last week in Des Moines, Iowa, so he’s hot.

Winner: I’m going to go with John Cook. Cookie is an excellent player, obviously, who, when he gets hot, can really burn up a course. I don’t think any player can burn up Shoal, it’s too difficult to do that, but I’m going with Cookie to get hot and capture the tour’s second major and the $330,000 first place prize check that comes with it. Cookie will move right into the Schwab Cup hunt as well.

The Regions Tradition will be televised by the Golf Channel at 5:30-7:30 PM CT Thursday, 5:30-7:30 PM Central Time on Friday, 6:30-8:30 PM CT on Saturday and 6:30-8:30 PM CT on Sunday. But if you live in the area, it’s a tremendous event to attend. Should be very exciting with some stellar golf played as the players try to master and sometimes survive Shoal Creek.

Like “Cookie” to get it done.