Articles in
March 25, 2011

Tonight’s Sweet 16 matchups and predictions

East Regional, Newark; 2 games
Numbers are seeds in region not rankings

No.11 Marquette (22-14) vs. No.2 UNC (28-7); 6:15, CBS

Marquette Key players:

Darius Johnson-Odom: 16 ppg; 3.9 rbg

Jimmy Butler: 15.8 ppg; 6.1 rbg

Joe Crowder: 11.8 ppg

69.5% FT team

North Carolina:

Harrison Barnes: 16.5 ppg; 5.7 rbg

Tyler Zeller: 16.2 ppg; 7.1 rbg

John Henson: 11.9 ppg; 10.1 rbg

FT team: 67%

Analysis: I kind of see the same thing happening to UNC that happened to Duke last night. They’re playing an aggressive group of fighters who are relentless and hungry. Carolina gets a little soft some times and this team they’re playing is a tough, physical bunch. I like the Golden Eagles to pull off the upset in this one.

Prediction:Marquette 76, UNC 70

No.1 Ohio State (34-2) vs. No.4 Kentucky (27-8); 8:45 CBS

Ohio State Key Players:

Jared Sullinger: 17.1 ppg; 10 rbg; 54 field; 70% FT

William Buford: 14.6 ppg; 4 rbg; 60-135 3’s (roughly 45%) 83% FT

Jon Diebler 12.6 ppg; 110-220 3’s (50%); 83% FT

David Lighty: 12.1 ppg; 50-115 3’s (43%)

Aaron Craft: 175 assists

Team FT: 70%

Kentucky:

Brandon Knight: 17.4 ppg; 78-203 3’s (38%); 142 assists; 80% FT

Terrence Jones: 16.1 ppg; 8.7 rbg

Doron Lamb: 12.6 ppg; 61-130 3’s (46%)

Darius Miller: 11.2 ppg; 54-121 3’s (45%)

Josh Harrelson: 7.3 ppg; 8.8 rbg; 129 offensive rebounds

FT Shooting team: 71%

Analysis: I’m going completely against the grain on this one. Ohio State is many people’s pick to win it all and they’re loaded. But Kentucky basketball, to me, is a lot like Alabama football. When they’re a heavy underdog they seem to step up to the plate. Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb are all exceptional players and Josh Harrelson is the best rebounder in college basketball; at least on the offensive glass. Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins are solid players, too. If Kentucky can defend the three, Harrelson holds his own in the paint with Sullinger and they shoot it well from trifecta, I like the ‘Cats to pull off a big upset. Also like John Calipari over Thad Motta in the coaching aspect of the game.

Prediction: Ky 82, Buckeyes 78

Southwest Regional: San Antonio; Two games

No.1 Kansas (34-2) vs. No.12 Richmond (29-7); 6:27, WTBS

Kansas Key players:

Marcus Morris: 17.3 ppg; 7.4 rbg

Markeiff Morris: 13.9 ppg; 8.3 rbg

Tyrel Reed: 9.8 ppg

Tyshawn Taylor: 9.3 ppg. 4.5 assists per game

Josh Selby: 8.1 ppg

Brady Morningstar: 7 ppg; 3,3 rbg

68% FT team

Richmond:

Justin Harper: 17.9 ppg; 7 rbg; 73-157 3’s (46%) 54% field; 78% FT

Kevin Anderson: 16.5 ppg; 67-157 3’s (43%); 111 assists; 74 % FT

Dan Geriot: 9.9 ppg; 3.8 rbg; 32-76 3’s (42%)

69% FT team

Analysis:

Richmond’s marksmanship may keep them in the game. They can really shoot it. But stopping the Morris twins is just too much to ask for a team that is undersized. Richmond should give the Jayhawks a good game, but like the Morris brother to carry the Jayhawks to the Elite Eight on Sunday.

Prediction: Kansas 70, Richmond 64

No.11 Virginia Commonwealth (26-11) vs. No. 10 Florida State; 8:57, WTBS

VCU Key players:

James Skeen: 15.2 ppg; 7.3 rbg

Bradford Burgess: 14.1 ppg; 6.4 rbg

Joey Rodriguez: 10.7 ppg; 3.3 rbg; 185 assists

Brandon Rozzell: 11.6 ppg

Florida State:

Derwin Kitchen: 10.6 ppg; 5.6 rbg

Analysis: This may not seem to be a great matchup, but it really is. VCU has been impressive beating USC, Georgetown and Purdue convincingly. They’ve got a good team and they put up some pretty good numbers offensively. Florida State has beaten Texas A&M and Notre Dame to get here. The Notre Dame win was convincing. This should be a good matchup, but I like the way VCU is playing a little better than Florida State. Not much.

Prediction: VCU 68, FSU 66


‘Zona stuns Duke

I thought Arizona was a pretty good team after they beat Texas last week in the third round of the tournament. Had watched them play this year and was pretty impressed. Now I think they can win it all.
Derrick Williams, the dominating sophomore center for the Wildcats, was unstoppable and he had a lot of help from his teammates in the second half, as ‘Zona outscored Duke 55-33 in the second half, to oust the Blue Devils, 93-77, in the Round of 16 and advance to the Elite Eight where they’ll face UConn on Saturday.

Williams poured in 32 for the game with some impressive inside play and five-of-six from trifecta. He scored 25 of his points in the first half. He also added 13 boards. Lamont Jones and Solomon Hill came on in the second half for the Wildcats. Jones finished with 16 and Hill added 13. It was total domination of a Blue Devils (32-5) team that looked like they might be unstoppable with the return of Kyrie Irving. Irving did his part scoring 28, but senior Nolan Smith was held to eight points on 3-of-14 shooting and 0-of-3 from trifecta. The Duke big men, the Plumlee brothers along with Kyle Singler and Ryan Kelly, were dominated in the post by the bigger, more physical ‘Cats. Duke was only five-of-14 from three and when they’re not hitting their threes, they struggle.

‘Zona (30-7), to me, was the most impressive team of the night. Sean Miller, their coach, is doing an exceptional job getting this team to play like the one that won the national championship in 1997. It doesn’t have the All-American point guard like Mike Bibby was in ’97, but the team has very good guard play. They can shoot, they can rebound and they can play defense. This team has it all and has a chance to go all the way. But they have to beat Kemba on Saturday and that’s no gimme. We’ll see how that shakes out.

Florida 83, BYU 74 (OT)

Florida got incredible balance in their scoring with Alex Tyus leading the way with 19 points and adding 17 boards. Kenny Boynton added 17 and Chandler Parsons and Erving Walker chipped in 16 apiece. Florida sank 11 3’s, but was only 10-for-22 from the free throw line (45.5%). That could hurt them if they don’t correct that in the next round against Butlet. The Gators moved to 29-7 overall.

Jimmer had 32 and was effective somewhat driving the lane and scoring, but was only three-of-15 from trifecta. He was seven-of-seven from the line, but was held scoreless in overtime. BYU finished the season at 32-5. Tyus was just too much inside for a team that sorely missed suspended power forward Kyle Davies. If Davies had played the Cougars might have pulled out the victory. But the Gators advance to play Butler Saturday.

UConn 74, San Diego State 67

The Huskies go as Kemba Walker goes and if there has ever been a guard that’s been as dominant a player in the postseason, I haven’t seen him in a while. Walker scored 36 points on 12-of-25 shooting from the floor including four-of-eight from trifecta and eight-of-10 from the line. Jeremy Lamb also scored big for the Huskies getting 24 and hitting a huge three down the stretch that put the Huskies up by four. The Huskies moved to 29-9.

San Diego State (34-3) was led by D.J. Gay who had 16 points. Kawhi Leonard had 12 points and nine boards for the Aztecs. San Diego State made some mistakes in the game particularly when one of their players laid a shoulder into a UConn player during a timeout which led to a technical, two made Kemba free throws and the ball that seemed to totally turn the momentum of the game. UConn moves on. They’ve got a tough matchup with ‘Zona on Saturday, but it’s hard to bet against Kemba. He’s really special.

Butler 61, Wisconsin 54

The Bulldogs kept it going with Matt Howard leading the way with 20 points on four-of-eight from the field including three-of-five from trifecta and nine of 10 from the line. Shelvin Mack added 13 as Butler (26-9) moves on to face Florida on Saturday. Jordan Taylor led the Badgers (25-9) with 22 points but was only three-of-10 from trifecta. Wisconsin was only seven of 29 from trifecta for the game. Butler was five-of-18. It was kind of an ugly game, but Butler can play ugly and win.

(Derrick Williams was dominant in the paint as ‘Zona crushed Duke.)

Some quick thoughts on Spring practice at ‘Bama, AU

‘Bama has a lot of fine, experienced  players returning to the 2011 team. Auburn lost 24 seniors and has holes to fill. They also lost Cam Newton, Nick Fairley and Darvin Adams, three juniors who were the most critical pieces(Newton and Fairley were, Adams helped a lot) to last year’s national championship team. Auburn also lost four of five starting offensive linemen, so it’ll be a new group up front with Brandon Mosley being the only returning starter at tackle. There is a lot of young talent who are probably hungry to perform and the coaches are challenging these guys to be as good as last year telling them all the seniors are gone and took all those wins with them using some psychology to get these guys motivated. But for both teams, they’ll be breaking in new quarterbacks,  guys I both like a lot.
At Alabama, A.J. McCarron and Phillp Sims are battling it out. Like McCarron to win the job though there’s time for Sims to win the job. Still liked the way McCarron played last year when called upon. He’s got a strong arm, pretty decent feet and looks accurate. Think he can be a good quarterback at the University. Got four of five linemen returning. Julio Jones is gone, but Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze return along with a slew of younger guys so the receiving corps ought to be good. Tight end solid with Michael Williams and Chris Smelley.

Trent Richardson is ready for a breakout year. If he gets it going, he could be in the Heisman race. Some pretty good players behind him in Eddie Lacy and Demetrius Goode. Look for Dee Hart, the freshman, to make an impact this year.

Defense should be excellent. Need some more depth up front because there will be some new guys, but Josh Chapman and Kerry Murphy should lead the way. Darrington Sentimore and Ed Stinson should be excellent players. Linebacker should  be awesome. Dont’a Hightower should return to his form of two years ago, at least I know Alabama fans hope for that. C.J. Mosley will be phenomenal. Courtney Upshaw is unlimited in talent and should be a dominating player and guys like Chris Jordan, Jerrelle Harris and Tana Patrick are excellent, tough players who will lay the wood on you and make plays all over the field. This is a great group of players. Could be the best linebacking corps in the country.

Secondary ought to be outstanding with Mark Barron returning for his senior year. Don’t know what happened down in Mobile. Sounded like he was protecting his cousin, but it doesn’t seem major and he should be back at the end of the Spring. Once he heals up from his torn pectoral muscle and gets back into playing shape, Barron should dominate in the fall. Just a tremendous player. Robert Lester ought to be a terrific player also. He already is. What did he have eight interceptions last year? Seven or eight. He’ll dominate. Dre Kirkpatrick should be stellar. Nick Perry, Phelon Jones, Jarrick Williams and John Fulton should be ready to be prime time players.

Almost left out the offensive line. Williams Vlachos, Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack and D.J. Fluker return. Aaron Douglas, a junior college transfer, looks like he could be the final piece up front. Will need to build up depth.

If McCarron can come through, which I think he will, this team has a shot at winning the national championship.

At Penn State, at Florida, at Ole Miss, at Miss State and at Auburn, all winnable games. Not sure about Penn State, don’t think they’re great. Florida kind of out of sorts and may not have it together next year. Ole Miss, who knows with Nutt? Miss. State ought to be pretty good, but Tide should beat them, and AU lost 24 seniors and Cam Newton and Nick Fairley, so they’ll be young and the game very winnable though at Auburn. Ark, Vandy, Tenn and LSU at home. LSU and Ark toughest games there. The others are non conference games against Kent State, Georgia Southern and North Texas; just show up for those and get those out of the way.

A-Day game Saturday, April 16, at 2 P.M. on ESPNU

AU is kind of in a rebuilding mode. New quarterback. Like Barrett Trotter a lot. Think he’s the man, though Clint Moseley from Leroy is talented and 6″4″, Trotter is probably 6’2″, but probably has a stronger arm and pretty good wheels. But I’m not counting Moseley out just yet. Running back still thin with Michael Dyer carrying the load. Onterio McCalebb was an electric player last year, so expect good things from him if the line comes through. Not many players though at rb. But the line is the key as it is for any offense along with the quarterback and there are some question marks on this year’s line.

The line has to replace guys like Ryan Pugh and Lee Ziemba along with Mike Berry and Byron Isom. That’s a tall order. Thought AU had the best line in the country last year. Brandon Mosley will have to step up. Reese Dismukes may come in early and play at center. I’ve heard great things about him from high school at Spanish Fort. Heard he was dominant. I’ve heard something about this Chad Slade kid that he can play. Will know more about line in Spring game which is April 16, Saturday, at 1 p.m. No TV announced yet, but I’m sure some network will carry it.

Wide receiver has Emory Blake back and Phillip Lutzenkirchen. Have heard great things about Trovon Reed. Sounds stellar. Quindarius Carr looked like he was going to be a player in last year’s Spring game. But he battled some injuries in the fall. I expect him to be a player this year. Other guys like DeAngelo Benton and Travante Stallworth could be good players. Again will know more as Spring moves on.

Defense is kind of rebuilding. Some young, good linebackers led by Jake Holland should give AU a pretty solid group. Darren Bates will stay at lb on the outside. Secondary ought to be pretty good this year. T’Sharvan Bell is back as is Neiko Thorpe and some young ones.

Defensive line ought to have two stellar players in Jeffrey Whitaker and Corey Lemonier. Need to build some depth there.

There are some depth issues with the loss of 23 seniors and three juniors and the expulsion of five players for disciplinary reasons. But we’ll see. May be a decent  season. Probably not an SEC championship or National title, but could surprise some people. A lot of really good young athletes on the team. Expect Christian Westerman to be a player on the offensive front. Big time recruit. There are some others who will probably play a lot this year. Talented class.

Schedule is difficult. At Clemson, at South Carolina, at Arkansas, at LSU and at Georgia. Home games against State, Florida, Ole Miss and ‘Bama. Utah State, Florida Atlantic and Samford are wins at home. Looks like 9-3 would be stellar. 7-5 could be more realistic.

If it wasn’t for the road schedule, Tigers might win quite a few games, but that’s demanding. Still a lot of young talent. We’ll learn more in the Spring game.

(A.J. McCarron, left, and Barrett Trotter, should be the leaders of their respective units next fall.)

Latest & Greatest

Fresh Tweets:

Vanderbilt women’s tennis player Astra Sharma 1 on 1. https://t.co/D0WS0rVnqG @VandyMeg @mmhamlett @Vandywtennis @ManOfVandy @SkipPrince
May 18, 2017, 2:34 PM

Topics:
Archives

Join My newsletter

I'll send you a brief email each time I post a new piece.