Bowl game analysis and predictions
Some will be shorter than others as I don’t know a lot about a few of these teams, but enough to make predictions.
Regular season record: 121-40
New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque): BYU (6-6) vs. UTEP (6-6), Saturday, Dec 18, 1 p.m., ESPN: BYU played Utah very close only losing 17-16, and although Utah got blasted by TCU at home, they are a good football team. UTEP plays in Conference USA and hasn’t faced the competition that BYU has faced. I think BYU has played better football this year and has definitely been tested more.
BYU 28, UTEP 20
Humanitarian Bowl (Boise, Idaho): Northern Illinois (10-3) vs. Fresno State (8-4), Saturday, Dec. 18, 4:30 p.m., ESPN: Fresno State is another team that has loaded up on the competition playing the likes of Boise State and Ole Miss. They defeated Illinois and Northern Illinois lost to the Illini. By virtue of that and Fresno State’s battle tested group I like Fresno.
Fresno State 38, Northern Illinois 24
New Orleans Bowl (Sin City) Ohio (8-4) vs. Troy (7-5), Saturday, Dec. 18, 8 p.m., ESPN: Got to go with the home state team. Troy has faced a lot of tough competition this year and I like that a lot. Ohio has done pretty well, but I like Larry Blakeley and Trojans in this one.
Troy 35, Ohio 28
Beef O’Brady’s Bowl (St. Petersburg, Fl) Louisville (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (8-4), Tuesday, Dec. 21, 7 p.m., ESPN: Like Charlie Strong and the Cardinals to get’er done here. Strong is probably going to build a very solid program in Louisville and they’ve played a better schedule than Southern Miss, which has lost to UAB, 50-49. No knock on UAB, but Southern Miss is not very good at stopping anybody.
Louisville 31, Southern Miss 24
Maaco Las Vegas Bowl (Vegas) Utah (10-2) vs. Boise State (11-1), Wednesday, Dec. 22, 7 p.m., ESPN: This is one of the better bowls outside of the BCS games. It’s actually better than the Fiesta Bowl with OU vs. UConn. Boise State was a last second field goal away from playing in the Rose Bowl most likely. It’s a shame, really. Kellen Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. This is an exciting offense to watch. Play pretty decent defense, too. Utah is a team I’ve liked all year even though they got smoked by TCU. They are always excellent on offense and play pretty good defense, similar to Boise. Got to go with the Broncos in this one. They have to be heartbroken they’re not in a BCS Bowl, but Chris Peterson will have them ready for a good test.
Boise State 42, Utah 34
Poinsetta Bowl (San Diego) San Diego State (8-4) vs. Navy (8-3), Thursday, Dec. 23, 7 p.m., ESPN: Good matchup here. Brady Hoke one of the rising stars in the coaching world in college football. Ken Niumatalolo has done a great job at the Naval Academy. I would like to go with the Midshipmen, but I like the speed of San Diego State. They are a pretty good team.
San Diego State 35, Navy 28
Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu) Tulsa (9-3) vs. Hawaii (10-3), Friday, Dec. 24, 7 p.m., ESPN: Don’t know a lot about either team, just think Tulsa might be a little more physical than Hawaii.
Tulsa 38, Hawaii 34
Little Caesars Bowl (Detroit), Toledo (8-4) vs. Fla International (6-6), Sunday, Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m., ESPN: Think Toledo will have that Midwestern toughness advantage over Fla. International.
Toledo 28, Fla. International 17
Independence Bowl (Shreveport) Ga. Tech (6-6) vs. Air Force (8-4), Monday, Dec. 27, 4 p.m., ESPN: Just think Tech may have too much speed for the Falcons. I hate picking against the service academies, but I’ll have to go with Tech. Think Paul Johnson, and Joshua Nesbitt get it done.
Tech 31, Air Force 21
Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando), N.C. State (8-4) vs. West Va. (9-3), Tuesday, Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m., ESPN: Russell Wilson has thrown for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns against 14 ints. He’s also run for almost 400 yards and scored nine tds on the ground. Like Wilson to be the difference maker in this game, particularly if he takes care of the ball. Dana Holgorsen (new OC and head coach in 2012) is going to do a great job for West Virginia, and the Mountaineers offense will be better in this game because of him and probably do well in this game, but I don’t think WVa defense can stop Wilson and Co.
NC State 38, West Va. 31
Insight Bowl (Tempe, Arizona) Iowa (7-5) vs. Missouri (10-2), Tuesday, Dec. 28, 9 p.m., ESPN: Iowa was expected to be a contender for the Big Ten title and have a shot for the BCS championship game at the beginning of the season, but the loss to Arizona and then the heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin really derailed their season. Still like Iowa to play well in what is a good matchup. Missouri had a fine season, but still think Iowa is a lot better than their record indicates. Ricky Stanzi and company outlast the Tigers in a great game; one you should watch.
Iowa 31, Missouri 28
Military Bowl (Washington D. C.) Maryland (8-4) vs. East Carolina (6-6), Wednesday, Dec. 29, 1:30 p.m., ESPN: Maryland is losing offensive coordinator James Franklin to Vandy. Franklin is the new Vandy head coach. Franklin may take three or four of the Md assistants with him. Not sure yet if they will coach in the bowl game. Still like Maryland to take this one.
Md. 28, ECU 2o
Texas Bowl (Houston) Illinois (6-6) vs. Baylor (7-5) Wednesday, Dec. 29, 5 p.m., ESPN: Illinois has been an erratic team all year. Baylor has a pretty potent offense. Just don’t trust Ron Zook in big games and like Baylor offense.
Baylor 35, Illinois 30
Alamo Bowl (San Antonio) Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5), Wednesday, Dec. 29, 8:15 p.m., ESPN: LIke the OSU offense a lot under MIke Gundy. They’re explosive. Arizona had some good wins this year under Mike Stoops and has a pretty good team, but like OSU’s offense to be the difference.
OSU 41, Arizona 34
Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) Army (6-6) vs. SMU (7-6), Thursday, Dec. 30, 11 a.m., ESPN: I’m going with the Cadets in this one. Improved so much this year. SMU is a decent team, but I don’t think they can stop Army. Army will do enough defensively.
Army 31, SMU 28
Pinstripe (Bronx, NY) Kansas State (7-5) vs. Syracuse (7-5) Thursday, Dec. 30, 2:30 p.m., ESPN: Syracuse had a pretty good year. Like Bill Snyder and the Wildcats in this one though. Have a pretty good offense.
Kansas St. 31, the Cuse 27
Music City Bowl (Nashville) Tennessee (6-6) vs. North Carolina (7-5), Thursday, Dec.30, 5:30, ESPN: Derek Dooley did a phenomenal job getting his team to win its last four games. I think they’ll keep the momentum going against a North Carolina team that has been beset by suspensions, expulsions and controversy all season. UT gets it done and starts building for next year behind now freshman quarterback Tyler Bray.
UT 28, UNC 24
Holiday Bowl (San Diego) Nebraska (10-3) vs. Washington (6-6), Thursday, Dec. 30, 9 p.m., ESPN: Nebraska looked like a national championship contender the first month and a half of the season, but fell off after a bad loss to Texas. They’re still a pretty solid football team and if Bo Pelini can keep his emotions in check and not get too many unsportsmanlike penalties, the Cornhuskers should be fine.
Neb. 34, Wash. 17
Meineke Car Car Bowl (Charlotte) Clemson (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5), Friday, Dec. 31, 11 a.m., ESPN: Clemson is the better team. Had some close games this year they could have won, but Dabo should finish off this season with a win and start getting ready for next year. He needs to have an eight or nine win season next year or he could be in some trouble.
Clemson 34, South Florida 21
Sun Bowl (El Paso) Miami (7-5) vs. Notre Dame (7-5), Friday, Dec. 31, 1 p.m. CBS: Brian Kelly had his Fighting Irish team playing pretty good ball at the end of the season. Al Golden takes over at Miami. Not sure if that’s a great hire. He did pretty well at Temple. Think he’ll get off to a rocky start against Irish.
ND 35, Miami 24
Liberty Bowl (Memphis) Central Florida (10-3) vs. Georgia (6-6), Friday, Dec. 31, 2:30 p.m., ESPN: Mark Richt looks like he survived another season where Georgia couldn’t win the big games. He could be on the hot seat next year, but he has Aaron Murray coming back and Murray could be outstanding. Also running backs should be back though they’ll lose A.J. Green. This is a tune up for next year for the Dawgs. They need to get better in 2011 or Richt could be out of a job.
UGA 31, UCF 17
Chick-Fil-A Bowl (Atlanta) Fla. State (9-4) vs. South Carolina (9-4), Friday, Dec. 31, 6:30 p.m., ESPN: Should be a good game here. Both teams had good seasons. Fla State made it to ACC title game in Jimbo Fisher’s first year, and SC was in SEC title game though they got blasted by Auburn. Like Lattimore, Garcia and Jeffery in this one, but not by much. Hope SC is up for this one after the disappointment the last time they were in the Superdome. Think they will be pretty excited about playing a good team though.
SC 34, FSU 31
TicketCity (Dallas) Northwestern (7-5) vs, Texas Tech (7-5), Saturday, Jan.1, 11 a.m., ESPNU: If Northwestern had quarterback Dan Persa starting I would definitely pick them. Persa was knocked out on the game winning touchdown pass against Iowa suffering an Achilles tendon injury that will sideline him till the Spring maybe later. He is a great player and the Wildcats will miss him. But he’ll be back next year. I can’t figure out Tommy Tuberville coached teams. Sometimes they show up and other times they don’t. Without Persa though, have to go with Tech.
TTU 27, Northwestern 17
Outback Bowl (Tampa) Penn State (7-5) vs. Florida (7-5), Saturday, Jan.1, Noon, ABC: This is a dress rehearsal for Will Muschamp. Maybe he gets this Gator team to play with a little more passion than the overrated, in my opinion, Urban Meyer, did. Meyer was great as long as he had Dan Mullen and Tim Tebow, but once Mullen left (two years ago) and Tebow left last year, Florida hasn’t been the same. Maybe Muschamp can figure out who is the best qb for the Gators, John Brantley or Jordan Reed. I think Florida will do enough as Muschamp tries to clean up this mess of an offense. Their defense is still pretty good though. Not convinced Muschamp can get it done just yet. This may give us a little bit of an indication. I say he passes his first test against a pretty average Penn State team. Joe Paterno has been so great for college football, but he needs to turn over the reins to somebody else. It’s just like Bobby Bowden. Paterno needs to relax and enjoy life a little bit and let a younger man put some energy back into the program.
Florida 31, Penn State 20
Capital One (Orlando) Michigan State (11-1) vs. Alabama ( 9-3), Saturday, Jan. 1, Noon, ESPN: It’s nice to play on New Year’s Day, but this is not the game the Tide wanted to be in. They had high hopes for a repeat, but losing nine starters on defense took its toll and then having Mark Ingram not playing up to last year’s standards, the line not as good as last year, Trent Richardson hurt some, it was just not the year everyone expected and hoped for. But they’re playing a good football team that tied for the Big Ten title with a good quarterback in Kirk Cousins and a slew of playmakers. Should be pretty entertaining. Nick Saban has kept his players from talking to the press ever since the Auburn game. The question is: Will this team be up for another game? Saban is a good motivator, but has had trouble this year at times keeping his team focused. If Tide can get focused, they could win. Think it’ll be a pretty good game, but I’ll give the edge to ‘Bama cause their the home state team and I think they have a better team than the Spartans. Mark Barron out with a torn pectoral muscle. Auburn game may have been his last as a Crimson Tider, but we’ll see. Hurts ‘Bama in the secondary for sure. Robert Lester and whomever else they put back there are going to have to step up. Should be a great game.
Alabama 34, Michigan State 3o
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville) Michigan (7-5) vs. Miss State (8-4), Saturday, Jan. 1, 12:30 p.m., ESPN2: Dan Mullen doing a terrific job at State and it looks like they’ll keep him for at least one more year. Would love to see him stay awhile and get State in upper echelon of SEC. I think he could do it consistently. Think he has another good recruiting class coming in. He plays to his strengths and this year it’s been the running of Vick Ballard and the running and passing of Chris Relf. Defense has been pretty good, too. Rich Rod still fighting for his coaching life. I guess he survived this year. May not be determined until after the bowl game. This may be a must win for Rodriguez. Michigan fans are very restless.
Miss State 28, Michigan 24
Rose Bowl (Pasadena) Wisconsin (11-1) vs. TCU (12-0), Saturday, Jan. 1, 4 p.m., ESPN: This is an excellent matchup between two teams that can play power football, particularly the Badgers. The Badgers come at you with that huge 310 pound on average offensive line and great power and speed in running backs John Clay and James White. They sold me when they beat Ohio State at home and Iowa on the road and then destroyed opponents at the end of the season.I have never been sold that TCU is a great team. They are very good, but I don’t think great. Thought Boise was better. Like Wisconsin’s power to be the difference.
Wisconsin 31, TCU 24
Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona) Connecticut (8-4) vs. Oklahoma (11-2), Saturday, Jan. 1, 7:30 p.m. ESPN: Surely OU is not going to choke this one away as they’ve done in quite a few games under Bob Stoops. OU looked great against Nebraska in the Big 12 title game and sent the Cornhuskers to the Big Ten with an L. Saw UConn play Vanderbilt this year and they were fairly impressive. Jordan Todman, their running back, has run for almost 1.600 yards this year and 14 tds. But I like the OU defense to contain him and OU running and passing game as well. Landry Jones is a pretty good quarterback and he has some good receivers. DeMarco Murray should want to have a big game to impress NFL scouts. Like OU to beat UConn pretty soundly. Hopefully, Stoops doesn’t blow this one.
OU 35, UConn 21
Orange Bowl (Miami) Stanford (11-1) vs Virginia Tech (11-2), Monday, Jan. 3, 7:3o, ESPN: I like this matchup a lot. Jim Harbaugh has worked miracles at Stanford. They are playing as good of football as anybody in the country right now. Andrew Luck is exceptional both through the air and on the ground. Frank Beamer has done an incredible job with his team after a tough loss to Boise to start the season and possibly a season killing loss to James Madison. But Beamer got his team back. They won 11 in a row and won the ACC title game. Tyrod Taylor has been awesome at quarterback for Va. Tech. I watched their freshman quarterback come in for a play against Miami and throw a beautiful pass for a 20 yard gain. He looks like he has a bright future next year. This should be a good one, but I don’t see anybody stopping Stanford right now. Auburn and possibly Oregon could outscore them, but that’s about it.
Stanford 34, Va. Tech 24
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans) Ohio State (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-2) Tuesday, Jan. 4, 7:30 p.m., ESPN: Arkansas playing really good football right now. Bobby Petrino has Ryan Mallett playing at an extremely high level and I just say they outscore the Buckeyes. Knile Davis looks like the second coming of Darren McFadden. He’s just a sophomore, too. Terrelle Pryor should have a pretty good night against the Arkansas defense, but I don’t think the Buckeyes can stop the Razorbacks enough to win.
Hogs 31, Ohio State 28
GoDaddy.Com Bowl (Mobile) Mid Tennessee (6-6) vs. Miami (Ohio), Thursday, Jan.6, 7 p.m., ESPN: Not much to analyze here. Both teams are average.
Miami (Ohio) 28, Midd Tenn 24
Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Tx) Texas A&M (9-3) vs. LSU (10-2), Friday, Jan. 7, 7 p.m., FOX: Don’t ever know what you’re going to get with LSU. Texas A&M was impressive with a win over Nebraska late in the season and a victory over Texas in Austin. They’re a pretty good football team. Will the Hatter have his team ready? That’s the question. I think A&M pulls off the upset here. LSU will be flat.
A&M 28, LSU 24
BBVA Compass Bowl (B’ham) Kentucky (6-6) vs. Pitt (7-5), Saturday, Jan.8, 11 a.m., ESPN: Kentucky lost Mike Hartline for the game due to a DUI and something else illegal. Austin Newton is a pretty good quarterback in my opinion as the Ky backup. I think Ky will win over a Pitt team with a new coach in Michael Haywood from Miami of Ohio. Hopefully, there will be a good crowd at Legion Field for the game. At least over 30,000. It’s fun for the city to have a bowl game. We need to prove that we are a good sports town. You never know what that’ll lead to.
Kentucky 28, Pitt 20
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco) Boston College (7-5) vs. Nevada (12-1) Sunday, Jan.9, 8 p.m., ESPN: Nevada is a fine football team as their victory over Boise State attests to. Got a great offense. Just has too much offense for BC.
Nevada 42, Boston College 28
BCS Title Game (Glendale, Arizona) Auburn (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-0), Monday, Jan.10, 7:30 p.m., ESPN: Just too much Cam Newton and the weapons around him for Oregon to keep up with. Auburn is just going to outphysical Oregon on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Their Oline will dominate a much smaller Oregon line and Nick Fairley will have his way on defense. Auburn just too potent offensively and they can do enough defensively to stop the Ducks. Like AU to win their second national title, their first since 1957. Been a special year for the Tigers and it will culminate with the crystal trophy at the end of the night in Glendale.
Auburn 48, Oregon 34
(Gene Chizik and Cam Newton will be hoisting the crystal trophy on Jan. 10 in Glendale after they defeat Oregon.)