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December 1, 2010

Key Stats for the SEC Title game along with some thoughts

Here are some stats of interest for the title game this Sat at 3 p.m. at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on CBS between the No.1 Auburn Tigers and the No. 19 South Carolina Gamecocks.
SEC:

Scoring Offense: 1. AU (41.6 per game) 5. SC (33.2) NCAA: 7. AU  27. SC

Scoring Defense: 3. SC (20.2) 9. AU (25.1) NCAA: 25. SC  57. AU

Rush Defense: 1. SC 93.2: 2. AU 108. NCAA: 5. SC  10. AU

Pass Defense: 10. SC  245.50: 12. AU 255  NCAA: 99. SC  106. AU

Total Defense: 5. SC (338.7 yards per game): 9. AU (363.2). NCAA: 33. SC 58. AU

Total Offense: 1. AU 490.1: 6. SC 394.7: NCAA 7. AU 27. SC

Sacks:

1. SC 39: 5. AU 30 NCAA: 3. SC,  26. AU

Red Zone Scoring D:

2. SC 22-31 69% 10. AU 33-38 87%

INT’s

(8)SC- 9

(11)AU-8

3rd Down conversions:

1. AU 68-133 51.1%

2.SC 77-155 49.7%

Individual: SEC

Rushing:

1. Cam 1,336, 5.9 average, 18 tds NCAA: 11th

2. Marcus Lattimore 1,114, 4.8 average, 17 tds NCAA: 20th

9. Michael Dyer 886, 6.1 average

Passing:

5. Stephen Garcia 189-287 2,646 yards, 65.9%, 18 tds, 9 ints

6. Cam 148-218 2,254 yards, 67.9%, 24 tds, 6 ints

Pass Efficiency: NCAA

2. Cam 185,57

14. Garcia 157.72

Receiving: SEC

2. Alshon Jeffery 75-1351 8 tds

10. Darvin Adams 41-692, 5 tds

As you know, Auburn won the first game 35-27 after falling behind 20-7 in the second quarter. That’s been a pattern for the Tigers all season. They seem to make the key adjustments at halftime defensively as they did against Alabama and get key turnovers at the right time as they did against Arkansas and South Carolina.

Garcia was 15-of-21 for 235 yards and three touchdowns but had two key fumbles in the fourth quarter against AU, one caused by Darren Bates that was recovered by T’Sharvin Bell and the second caused by Josh Bynes and Noss Eguae that was recovered by Mike Blanc. Steve Spurrier got impatient with Garcia as he tends to do with quarterbacks and yanked him for Connor Shaw, a freshman. Shaw was picked off twice, once by Bynes and the other time in the end zone by Demond Washington, on a pass that Jeffery had for a second but couldn’t hold on to.

Cam ran 25 times for 176 yards and scored three touchdowns on the ground in that game. He was also 16-21 through the air for 158 yards and two tds. a seven yarder to Phillip Lutzenkirchen and a 12 yarder to Emory Blake.

This looks like a classic. I don’t know who I give the edge to in coaching. Steve Spurrier is 5-2 in SEC Championship games all with Florida. and Ellis Johnson has been there as an assistant at Alabama. Gus Malzahn and Ted Roof have never been to a title game and Gene Chizik has been as a a defensive coordinator for Auburn in 2004, a game Auburn won on its way to an undefeated season. Of course, Chizik was the defensive coordinator at Texas when they won the national championship in 2005 (2006 Rose Bowl) and Spurrier won the national championship at Florida in 1996 (1997 Sugar Bowl.)

So it’s pretty much a wash at head coaching. Gus Malzahn and Spurrier are also a wash as OC’s. Both are the best at what they do. I may give Malzahn a slight edge because he has so many playmakers particularly Cam. But Spurrier has Lattimore and Jeffery, and Garcia is playing very well right now. If he can avoid mistakes he will be difficult to beat.

I like Johnson over Roof on Defense.

Chizik has done an outstanding job. He can make the tough go for it calls (with help from Malzahn) and he and his coaches make great adjustments at halftime. Spurrier gambles a lot, sometimes it hurts him, but  it works too. Spurrier’s Achilles Heel is his impatience when things aren’t going right. He’ll yank Garcia or get away from the running game too soon if it’s not working. Chizik trusts Malzahn to get it right which is the smart thing to do as the Alabama game attests.

It’ll be Cam and his plethora of weapons on offense versus Lattimore, Jeffery and Garcia. Lattimore only ran for 38 yards in the first game, so we’ll see how he does this time around. Jeffery had eight catches for 192 yards and two tds. Tori Gurley is also a dangerous receiver.

Another huge factor are the offensive lines for both sides. Can the SC line hold out Nick Fairley who has 9.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. He’s second in the conference in sacks and first in TFLs. South Carolina leads the conference in sacks, but their pass defense is suspect. Both pass defenses are very suspect. Auburn seems to make the defensive stops when they have to, but Jeffery is the best in the league in my opinion. If the ball is thrown close to him, he’ll catch it, and he can really run with it after he catches it.

Both defenses will have their work cut out for them. The defense that can contain the other offense the most will win this game along with the team that gets the turnovers at the key points in the game deep in their territory stopping a drive or deep in the opponent’s territory leading to a touchdown.

Like Cam over Garcia slightly, but  Garcia’s become a very good player. Like Lattimore in the run game and Jeffery is stellar though Auburn also has its stable full of receivers. The team that plays better defense, has more stops, will win this game.

Prediction on Friday.

(Great matchup of qbs in this one.)

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