You can’t argue with Nick Saban’s resume. Two national championships, three SEC titles, five Western division titles and a 133-53-1 record as a college head coach (over 70% winning percentage). He runs a first class program that graduates players and sends a lot of players to the NFL. He should have quite a few more going to the NFL this year: Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Mark Barron (maybe), Preston Dial (maybe), Greg McElroy (maybe), Dont’a Hightwower (maybe) and Courtney Upshaw. His record speaks for itself.
But it was pointed out in the News yesterday that Saban is only 10-8 in games decided by seven points or less in his four years in Tuscaloosa. That’s an interesting stat. And in the three losses this year to South Carolina (35-21), LSU (24-21) and Auburn (28-27), it looked like South Carolina and LSU had better game plans and Auburn made the necessary adjustments at halftime to win the games.

The argument I have is it’s difficult and next to impossible to go back to back, particularly with what Alabama faced this year. Not only did they lose nine starters on defense, they played six teams with bye weeks before they played them (South Carolina, LSU and Auburn included.) They had a huge target on their backs. Everybody was going to be prepared to the max to knock off the defending national champions.

But it’s true, Saban and his staff appeared to be outcoached by Spurrier, Les Miles and his staff–though I give more credit to Miles’ staff than him, he just goes for it on fourth down and gets lucky, his coaches make the preparations and the calls– and Chizik, Gus Malzahn and Ted Roof at halftime.

But I think it’ll make Saban that much more determined to come back. He’s got the number two recruiting class in the country behind Texas–which really struggled under Mack Brown this year so I’m not sure they can really coach their four and five star recruits up–according to Rivals, and he’ll probably add a some more four and five stars.

Were Saban, the coaching staff and the players burnt out and kind of cruising off of last year? Possibly. Saban didn’t seem to lose his intensity, but maybe part of him was so satisfied with last year that he let his guard down a little bit.

Mark Ingram was not the same player he was a year ago. His knee must have been bothering him and i just don’t know if he was as hungry as he was last year. Greg McElroy played well most of the season, but the Tide just didn’t run the ball that well. Julio Jones really came on at the end of the season maybe sensing he needed to impress the pro scouts for the NFL draft, but he played like an All-American the last five or six games of the season and really all year.

The offensive line wasn’t the same after the Florida game. The defense couldn’t really rush the passer and the secondary got burned quite a bit. Mark Barron was burnt by T-Zac in the Auburn game when it looked like he could have knocked down that long pass from Cam that turned into a 70-yard td. Barron tore a pectoral muscle in the game so that impacted his play.

But Auburn outcoached Alabama at halftime and then in the second half and LSU and South Carolina out gameplanned and outcoached the Tide coaches as well. Nick Saban needs to get his coaches together and tell them that is not going to happen again next year. He has talent coming back, albeit with a new quarterback, but A.J. McCarron shows potential and S has been high on Phillip Sims, the frosh from Virginia. The line will have everybody back except James Carpenter. A healthy Barrett Jones would have helped in the Auburn game. There seemed to be a lot of injuries this year. Ingram, Trent, Barrett Jones, Hightower really wasn’t himself after the knee injury last year. Julio Jones battled a broken hand and Darius Hanks got hurt in the Auburn game.

It was just one of those years where Murphy’s Law was in effect, there may not have been as much drive in the team and the key opponents had two weeks to prepare and game plan for the Tide.

Saban went 9-3 the year after he won the national title at LSU then he left for Miami. Maybe he’s at Alabama to stay and he’s going to get the Tide back to where they’re used to being. But it’ll be a war with Auburn. AU has built a stellar program in two years under Gene Chizik. Gus Malzahn is a hot commodity as a head coaching candidate, so we’ll see what happens if he takes another job. Auburn has had a spectacular season and there’s two more hurdles in front of them. Get over those and Auburn will be national champions. That may make Nick Saban even more determined for 2011.

On another note, the Chicago Bears are proving the doubters wrong. Lovie Smith, Jay Cutler and offensive coordinator Mike Martz were maligned in the preseason and the early season and Smith and Cutler have been catching it for two years. But yesterday the Bears, Cutler and their stellar defense proved they could be championship material with a 31-26 victory over the almost unstoppable Michael Vick and his Eagles team. The Bears did enough to stop Vick and came up with a key interception late in the second quarter when Vick and company were driving. The Eagles were on the Bears seven late in the second quarter down 14-13 and ready to seize the momentum. Vick went back to pass and defensive tackle Tommie Harris tipped his pass and Chris Harris picked it off in the end zone and returned it 39 yards to the Bears 37. Cutler took his team in from there hitting fellow former Vandy teammate Earl Bennett for a five yard td pass to put the Bears up 21-13. Cutler and Bennett hooked up for two tds and Cutler threw for two more, one to Johnny Knox and one to Greg Olsen. It was a great overall performance by the Bears team and one that was in a playoff like atmosphere.

I’m happy for Jay and Lovie. Lovie is a class act and a very good football coach. He just keeps his poise on the sidelines which I like. He has a great defense which he has a lot input in. And he has good coaches. Rod Marinelli, the Bears defensive coordinator, has the defense playing at a high level. They are just so aggressive and Brian Urlacher is dominant. Mike Martz is an outstanding offensive coach. The Bears have a tough schedule coming in. After Detroit on the road this weekend–not easy, no game is easy in the NFL–they have the Patriots and Jets at home and the Vikings and Packers on the road. Tough coming in, but I like the way this team is playing. The defense is awesome. Michael Vick is playing at such a high level that beating him is like winning two games. Bears at 8-3 one game behind Falcons in the NFC who won a huge game over the Packers, 20-17, in overtime. Matt Ryan of the Falcons is playing at an incredible level right now. Looking like an elite qb along with Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers and maybe Cutler. The NFC is shaping up to be very exciting with the Saints starting to play great ball and the Eagles and Giants competing for the East crown. It’s New England, the Jets, Baltimore and now San Diego in the AFC. Those look like the elite teams to me. Will have my picks in the playoffs and for the Super Bowl when the playoffs start. Right now, I like the Jets or Patriots and the Bears, Saints or Falcons. Home field advantage is so important in the playoffs. There are teams that get hot like the Giants in 2006-07 and the Steelers in 2005-06, but the Colts and Saints had home field advantage last year and it paid off. I’d rather have the home field than not though it’s no guarantee in the NFL. Something about Drew Brees and the Saints I like a lot again this year. They have come back from early season struggles, they’re getting healthy again and playing well on both sides of the ball. Drew has become the Kobe Bryant of the NFL. So clutch. Huge win over Dallas on Thanksgiving.

College football has been riveting and Oregon and Auburn are primed to make it to the BCS title game in Glendale Jan. 10 if they can win this weekend. But they’ve got to get through Oregon State and South Carolina respectively, and those aren’t guarantees by any means. South Carolina has the weapons in Marcus Lattimore, Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley. Stephen Garcia has been playing well and even though I still don’t totally trust him, he’s playing at a very high level right now and may have gotten over his nerves in the clutch. South Carolina is playing with a lot of confidence after their resounding win over Clemson, 29-7, backing up their huge win at Gainesville over the hapless Gators, 36-14.

This South Carolina team is for real and will give Auburn everything they want. Steve Spurrier will have a masterful game plan, so AU has to be prepared on defense for a lot of play action, throwing to Lattimore out of the backfield, the running of Lattimore, which Auburn stopped in the first game, and the dangerous Jeffery. Will Auburn use the game plan they employed in the first game and home in on stopping Lattimore and make Garcia beat them through the air? They may mix it up as Garcia is playing pretty well right now. They might  crowd the line and blitz quite a bit. Should be a highly entertaining game.

I’ve also got to give a lot of credit to Arkansas, Mississippi State and Tennessee. Arkansas could be primed for a BCS game depending on how Auburn does this weekend. They gave Alabama and Auburn a run. Still not over that hurdle yet, but Petrino and company getting closer. State had an awesome year under Dan Mullen. Eight wins is outstanding and Mullen is building quite a program. If they can keep him, he’ll do some great things. And how about Tennessee winning its last four to become bowl eligible. Derek Dooley did an excellent job keeping his team focused through a lot of turmoil. I think he’ll do great things at UT.

Oregon has to go on the road to Oregon State. The Beavers will be gunning for the Ducks. Think the Ducks have too much talent for the Beavers, but it could be interesting. An Auburn-Oregon matchup or an Auburn-TCU matchup would be compelling. If both Auburn and Oregon lose then it would get really interesting. I guess it would be Wisconsin and TCU. A lot to look forward to this weekend. Then the Heisman Trophy presentation the following weekend. No word on Cam’s situation, but he certainly looks like he could win it if he cements it this weekend with a victory over SC.

Will have picks on Friday, more this week. Please stay tuned.

(Saban and Chizik could turn out to be a huge rivalry in the next five to 10 years.)

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Ted Roof has been catching a lot of flack all season about his defense, but he shouldn’t any more. Roof, secondary coaches Phillip Lolley and Tommy Thigpen and dline coach Tracy Rocker made  the necessary adjustments when they counted at halftime. They, their players and Cam and company took over in the second half to lead the Tigers to victory, 28-27, in the 75th edition of the Iron Bowl. And this was a classic. I’d put it in my top three or four of all time.
Here is what the Auburn defense did in the second half after being pretty much run over in the first half. Greg McElroy was 19-of-23 for 314 yards in the first half with two touchdowns. In the second half, McElroy was eight-of-14 for 63 yards. Julio Jones caught seven passes for 174 yards in the first half. In the second half, Julio caught three passes for 25 yards. In the first half, Alabama amassed 358 total yards. In the second half, 77. Alabama had a 24-7 lead in the first half. They scored only three more points in the second half and that was after a fumbled punt return by Quindarrious Carr deep in Auburn territory.

The defense gave Cam, T-Zac and the rest of the offense a shot at coming back. And like Cam and his offensive teammates have done all season, they did. Cam finished the day 13-of-20 for 216 yards and three tds, the first a 36-yarder to Emory Blake on a beautiful go pass which Blake almost bobbled and lost after Mark Barron tried to knock it out. But it was a great play by Blake to hold on to the ball and secure the six.

Down 24-7, Cam and T-Zac came roaring back in the third quarter. Cam dropped back and threw a deep ball to T-Zac. Barron looked like he was in position to either pick it off or knock it down and knock T-Zac off his feet in the process. But Barron missed the ball, T-Zac kept his concentration, made a great catch, and ran it in for a 70-yard score to cut the lead to 24-14.  Auburn whittled away again scoring on a Cam one yard run with 4:23 to go in the third cutting the lead to 24-21.

Jeremy Shelley put Alabama up 27-21 on a 32-yard field goal with 1:05 left in the third, but Auburn had held Alabama out of the end zone after the Carr fumble. Alabama got to the AU seven, but a false start penalty and an Eltoro Freeman sack of McElroy on third and 10 at the Auburn 12 led to the field goal.

Then Auburn went on what proved to be the game winning drive. Maybe the key play of the season for Auburn, and if they win the national championship they’ll look back on this play, was on fourth and three at the Alabama 47. Auburn took a timeout with 13:49 left in the game. Gene Chizik conferred with Gus Malzahn and decided to go for it. Cam set up in the backfield and for a few seconds there, I thought he was going to quick kick it. But Ryan Pugh snapped it to Cam and he threw a perfect pass to Darvin Adams who hauled it in for a nine yard gain to the Alabama 38. Five plays later, Malzahn called one of his many highly creative calls, as Cam rolled right and threw back left to Phillip Lutzenkirchen who grabbed it just beyond the outstretched arms of Mark Barron to put Auburn up 28-27 with 11:55 to go in the game.

Julio, McElroy and Darius Hanks were all knocked out of the game by the intensely hard-hitting Auburn defense. McElroy went out after a blitzing T’Sharvin Bell sacked McElroy and knocked him out with a concussion. It was a clean play.

Auburn got’er done in the second half, but three plays were critical in the first half. With 12:30 left in the second quarter and Alabama leading 21-0, McElroy completed a pass to Ingram over the middle and Ingram was racing down the right sideline when a hustling Antoine Carter came from behind and punched the ball out of Ingram’s arms on the Auburn 19. The ball went through the end zone and Auburn got it back on its 20.

AU was still down 21-0 when maybe the key play of the game transpired. After starting on their 50 as a result of a Ryan Shoemaker 20-yard punt, Alabama got it down to the Auburn three on a McElroy to Jones 42-yard pass play. Alabama had all the momentum and was threatening to blow out the No.2 team in the country. On a first and goal at the AU 3,  Jim McElwain had the perfect play called: a short pass to Trent Richardson on the left side of the line. Richardson was open and could have walked in pretty much. McElroy got the pass to him, but Richardson dropped it. Alabama couldn’t get it in from there and settled for a field goal. If Alabama would have scored seven they would have taken a 28-0 lead and Auburn may have faced a mountain they couldn’t get over. But AU got the ball back and scored to cut the lead to 24-7.

The third critical error for the Tide and key play for the Tigers was on the very next Alabama drive. With a second and goal at the Auburn eight, McElroy dropped back to pass. Hard charging Nick Fairley, who should win the Outland Trophy in my opinion, busted through guard Anthony Sheen’s block  and crushed McElroy. McElroy fumbled and Fairley recovered.

AU dodged some bullets in the first half, but showed what kind of mettle they have to withstand the Tide first half onslaught and what kind of football team they have in coming back in the second half.

One more mountain to climb before AU can start making their reservations for Glendale. South Carolina won’t be easy, AU had a tough time with them in Auburn winning 35-27 with some late game heroics by the defense as they caused four turnovers in the fourth quarter. But Marcus Lattimore, Alshon Jeffrey and company will challenge this tremendous Tigers team greatly. But one thing I know:  it’s great to be an Auburn Tiger today.

If the Tigers can get through SC, there’s a good chance it’ll be Oregon. If it’s not Oregon, it could be TCU or Wisconsin. But there’s work left for the Tigers before they get there.

Hats off to Gene Chizik, Gus Malzahn, Ted Roof and the entire Auburn coaching staff for the job they’ve done this year. They have earned the right to play for it all if. Just need to take care of business one more time.

(NIck Fairley and Auburn defense stood strong in first half and took care of business in second half.)

Just going to give my picks for each game without analysis. Enjoy the games! Will be tweeting during Iron Bowl. Please stay tuned at www.twitter.com/davidhwhitejr
Record: 110-34

Kentucky 35, Tennessee 28

Ohio State 38, Michigan 28

Arkansas 35, LSU 27

South Carolina 28, Clemson 24

Ole Miss 31, Miss. State 28

Florida State 35, Florida 31

Vandy 28, Wake Forest 24

Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 27

Oklahoma State 42, Oklahoma 35

Just a quick note on Iron Bowl. I didn’t mention the first half suspensions of Michael Goggins and Mike Blanc after their parts in the scrums with Georgia two weeks ago. That could be significant for the Auburn defensive line that is not that deep. Defensive end Jeffrey Whitaker and defensive tackle Corey Lemonier will have to play bigger roles and Zac Clayton and Nick Fairley can’t get hurt. Alabama could take advantage of that with some more uptempo offensive plays, more pounding with the running game and maybe a faster approach between plays to try and wear AU’s defensive linemen down. Could be a factor.
Will have Saturday’s predictions up on Friday.

Here is what’s ahead Thursday and Friday in games that have a national impact besides the Iron Bowl.

Thursday

No. 17 Texas A&M (8-3)  @ Texas (5-6), 7 p.m., ESPN : I want to pick A&M after they beat Nebraska last week in a game where Bo Pelini lost it with his outrage against the refs. Texas still has the better defense; they are eighth in total defense and A&M is 51st. Garrett Gilbert has been pretty bad for the ‘Horns this year throwing 15 picks to nine tds, but he had a good game against Florida International last week with three tds. Ryan Tannehill has taken over at qb for A&M and thrown for 10 tds and 3 ints. He’s done a good job in place of Jarrett Jackson. But I got to go with the Longhorns who want to get bowl eligible at least and salvage something of this season.

Texas 24, Texas A&M 21

Friday

No.21 Arizona (7-3) @ No.1 Oregon (10-0) 6 p.m., ESPN:

The defenses are a wash with Oregon allowing only 11 points per game and Arizona 12. Oregon is leading the nation in scoring offense averaging 50 per game while ‘Zona is 49th at 30 a game. The key stat to me is how the teams’ played against Stanford, which is a very good football team. Oregon beat Stanford 52-31 and Stanford whipped ‘Zona 42-17. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas have big games and Oregon will face one more hurdle to getting to Glendale for the National Championship game on Jan. 10. That’ll be at Oregon State, which should be tough.

Oregon 42, ‘Zona 21

No.4 Boise State (10-0) @ No.19 Nevada (10-1), 9:15 p.m., ESPN: This could be a classic shootout. Boise second in the country in scoring offense averaging 47 per game while Nevada is fourth at 44 per game. But Boise is second in the country at scoring defense at 11. 5 per game. Nevada is not bad either at 38th in the country at 21 per game. But in total defense Boise is second and Nevada is 67th. Kellen Moore (28 tds, 5 ints, 2,921 yards passing), Doug Martin (938 rushing yards, 9 tds), Titus Young (55 catches-988, 8 tds) and Austin Pettis (50-688 8tds) keep it rolling for the Broncos. They’re right in the thick of the national championship hunt. If Auburn or Oregon stumbles I think Boise will pass TCU and get to Glendale if they win out their last two. Boise plays at home against Utah State next week. This is an outstanding football team.

Boise State 49, Nevada 21

(Kellen Moore tries to keep his team rolling towards Glendale)

This is a huge week for college football with rivalries galore, teams trying to stay atop the BCS standings and other teams trying to play the spoiler.
It doesn’t get any bigger than Friday at 1:30 in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium. One hundred and two thousand rabid fans will be urging their team to either stay in the national championship race or spoil a perfect season and beat their hated rival. Alabama is a four point favorite. Would think it might even be closer than that, but we’ll see how the week shakes out in Vegas.

Alabama has played a lot better football the past two weeks with a 3o-10 victory over Miss State followed by a 63-7 trouncing of Georgia State. The second opponent was not much, but I like what Nick Saban has said about playing weak opponents: “It’s not who you play it’s how you play.” ‘Bama certainly looked good and has momentum heading into this war. A couple of key players who have been hurt, and I mean key for this game, Trent Richardson and Barrett Jones, are probably going to play. Richardson is practicing so he should be ready. Jones is a little more questionable with a high ankle sprain. But he’s a tough kid so I think he’ll be in there. Both players are very important to the Tide’s success. Jones needs to be in there to either block or help block the dominating Nick Fairley.

I met Greg McElroy Saturday. He was eating lunch at Tazikis where I was eating with my daughter. He was in town for the Rhodes Scholarship interviews. He didn’t get selected but I was very impressed with Greg. Sharp guy, clean cut and a pretty stout boy. He’s 6’3″ and he looks to be about 215 to 220. He is solid. He gave my daughter an autograph with a “Roll Tide, Greg McElroy number 12.” I told him I wanted to interview him for the blog and he said I would have to get in touch with the media relations department which I immediately did afterwards. I’ll try to land an interview with Greg. Can’t guarantee it because these I’ve been working with Alabama media relation, so we’ll see.

Mark Ingram looks like he has it back together and is running with the passion he had last year. Trent would be a huge addition to the running game and passing game out of the backfield. Julio Jones is playing at an All-American, top six draft pick level. Marquis Maze is right behind him. Darius Hanks and Preston Dial are very good options as well for McElroy.

The defense looked pretty solid in the last two games. Guys like DeMarcus Milliner and Dre Kirkpatrick have really picked up how to play the secondary. Robert Lester has been awesome and Mark Barron is a total winner. Linebacking corps is emerging with C.J. Mosley looking Ro McClain-like. Dont’a Hightower is playing at a pretty good level now and Courtney Upshaw is playing decent. All three are highly talented and Chris Jordan has emerged as a player. Like Jerrell Harris and Nico Johnson, too. The line is doing better. Josh Chapman is playing better. Luther Davis is playing pretty well. Need to get pressure on Cam no doubt, if the Tide wants to slow him down and they need to tackle him once they get there. I know that’s pretty basic, but fundamentals win football games.

The things Nick Saban believes his defense needs to do better are recover fumbles and get a pass rush on Cam. Can you contain Cam? I’m not sure that is possible, but putting pressure on him is a step in the right direction.

For Auburn, it’s about the high scoring offense for sure, but in this game, the defense is going to have to make some plays. Alabama’s offense looks like it’s gotten itself together, so AU will have to stop the run, tackle well and get pressure on McElroy. There will be pressure on Zac Etheridge and his teammates in the secondary, so the more pass rush Fairley, Antoine Carter and company can put on McElroy the better for Auburn. Josh Bynes needs to show his leadership abilities both in his play and vocally.

What about Cam? Nothing has emerged in the past couple of days in the investigation, so I think, and that is think, that he’ll be OK to play against Alabama. If he does, that gives AU a great chance. He’ll use his amazing running and passing ability to try and sink the Tide defense. His weapons around him are as solid as any in the country. Onterio McCalebb can break it any time and Michael Dyer, though I wouldn’t say he’s extremely fast like McCalebb, or as powerful as Marcus Lattimore, is a fine running back. I don’t know if you can risk using Mario Fannin because of his fumbling problems. He brings some explosiveness to the offense, but can you take a chance on him when you’re driving for a score or starting a drive deep in your own territory? Auburn needs to give the other backs a rest, but they need to be pretty judicious in their use of Fannin. Newton’s targets through the air will be a factor as always. Darvin Adams, T-Zac, who could be a factor on those reverses, Emory Blake, who has emerged as a big time playmaker, and Phillip Lutzenkirchen, who has become a scoring weapon for the Tigers, are all key in the offenses’ success.

I give Auburn the edge on the offensive line over Alabama. Those guys look like the best in the country.

The kick return games are fairly even though I’d give AU the edge on kickoff returns because of Demond Washington and the fact that Richardson has been a little hurt. Also, ‘Bama allowed Georgia State to return a kick 100 yards for a score. There is a lot of talent on the kickoff team for Alabama, but they need to be careful with Demond. He’s capable of breaking it any time. Julio may be returning kicks for Tide. I like Marquis Maze in the punt return game. He’s returned two punts for tds that have been called back. He’s an incredible weapon.

Field goals and PAT’s I’d give a little edge to the Auburn veteran Wes Byrum over Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster. Ryan Shoemaker has struggled for Auburn and I just don’t remember that many punts by Cody Mandell. I know Auburn fans have complained about their punting and I haven’t heard any complaints from Alabama fans, so I give the edge to ‘Bama.

Turnovers of course will play a role. Cam can fumble every now and then. Alabama protects the ball pretty well though Trent had a couple of fumbles against LSU, and if Eddie Lacey plays, he’s a threat to drop it. Ingram doesn’t fumble, but Auburn will be working hard to strip the ball, so fumbles could be a factor. The Tide is pretty ball hawking in the secondary, but Cam is pretty darn accurate, so that’ll be interesting. McElroy doesn’t throw many ints, so that’s almost a wash between those two. Alabama has better defensive backs.

Which defense can play better and stop the opponent’s offense is the team that is going to win this game. Can either defense stop the opposing offenses? I don’t know if they can. Alabama’s defense is playing better right now. I give them the edge though Fairley could dominate.

Alabama is at home and they’ve got a little better defense. Defense may not matter in this one as it could be a shootout, but it could also be a lower scoring game than some would think. Whenever I think a game is going to be a shootout, it ends up being lower scoring. I’m going with a lower scoring game and the Tide, Greg McElroy and Julio Jones and a late field goal ruining Auburn’s dream of going to Glendale on Jan. 10.

Alabama 24, Auburn 21.

Please give me your analysis and prediction in the comments section. They are welcome!

(Julio will be the man in this one.)

I don’t care if it was Georgia State or Auburn, that was an impressive 63-7 victory by the Tide. Mark Ingram looked like the Mark Ingram we saw in 2009 and in the first few games he played in this year with 86 yards on 12 carries and a touchdown. Ingram has now rushed for 884 yards and 10 tds. Pretty good numbers. I think he’s struggled with the knee a little bit and the line hasn’t been as good as last year. But last night Ingram and the line were in sync.
Julio Jones has been playing like an All-American and a top five draft choice most of the year. Julio had seven catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns, an eight-yarder and a 10-yarder. Julio now has 65 receptions on the year for 885 yards and 6 tds. Is he as good as A.J. Green and Alshon Jeffrey? He’s close. Those three may be the best three receivers in the country. I can think of a lot of NFL teams who would want any one of them. He’s elite.  Last year it sounds like he was hurt most of the year. This year he’s battled through a broken hand and played exceptional.

Greg McElroy was 12-13 for 159 yards and two tds. He’s more than a game manager to me. He’s an outstanding player and an outstanding leader on this team. A.J. McCarron has a lot of talent. He was 7-9 for 57 yards and a seven yard touchdown pass to Chris Underwood.

The young talent has really emerged on defense. C.J. Mosley looks like he’s the next Ro McClain. He’s maybe not as big but could be as dominant. Mosely had his second interception return for a td, this time from 41 yards. He also had one against Florida. Guys like Chris Jordan and Jerell Harris had great games both with five tackles and Jordan had an interception. Chavis Williams had two tackles and a beautiful blocked punt that Brandon Gibson picked up and scored on. DeMarcus Milliner had a terrific interception fading back covering his man on a go route and diving backwards and hauling the pass in. Mr. Consistency, Mark Barron, also had a pick. Dont’a had some good plays on defense. Would like to see him get even better and get back to that level he was playing at before the knee injury last year against Arkansas.

There is a lot of veteran and young talent on this team. I think they’re as ready as they’re going to be for Cam and the Tigers. How do you stop Cam? If anybody knows the answer to that they might be the second coming of Bryant or Lombardi. But Nick Saban and Kirby Smart are as good as you can find, so they’ll have a lot in their packages defensively to stop Cam. Auburn has a lot of other weapons both on the ground and through the air. Saban will probably blitz more. I don’t know if a spy will work, but he may have somebody like Mosley keying on Cam. Cam is a head coach’s and defensive coordinator’s nightmare. But if anybody can slow down Cam, it’s Saban and Smart.

Auburn will be rested and ready. Alabama will be rested and really jacked up to ruin their archrivals’ perfect season. This should be awesome. Alabama’s offense will need to control the ball and keep Cam off the field. Trent should be back which will help a lot. Not sure about Barrett Jones. I suspect if there is any way he can play, he will. Alabama just needs to mix it up with Ingram, Trent, Julio and the other playmakers. Auburn has been vulnerable in the secondary this year, so Jim McElwain and McElroy will try and take advantage of that with Julio, Maze, Dial and Hanks and the rbs out of the backfield.

For Auburn, they need to get some pass rush. Barrett Jones or William Vlachos blocking Nick Fairley could be very interesting. I don’t know if Fairley can be stopped. Vlachos had trouble with Drake Nevis of LSU and Fairley is as good as Nevis or better. That’s a key matchup there. Auburn’s defensive backs are going to have to step it up and cover better than they have all season. Zac Etheridge will need to be the leader in back and help out his teammates. And the pass rush will have to help. Auburn’s linebackers need to be active. Ted Roof needs a solid and aggressive game plan defensively. He’s going to need it.

The big question is: Can anybody stop Cam? Besides the NCAA it doesn’t look like it. But Alabama has a ton of athletes on defense and have looked good the last two games. Is this going to be the team everybody expected at the beginning of the year and showed some greatness throughout the season? They’re going to have to give every ounce of effort to win this game. Stopping Cam is next to impossible. He may be one of the most dominant college players of all time. I know that’s a big statement, but he is a freight train with tremendous afterburners. And he has proven he can throw the ball very accurately, both the short and deep ball. Alabama is going to have to slow him down and play outstanding on the offensive side of the ball to win this game. Auburn is going to have to be better on defense if they expect to win this game. 1:30 p.m. CBS, next Friday, Nov. 26

More analysis and a prediction next Tuesday. Stay with me next week. I’ll be tweeting on college and pro football this weekend, so if you get a chance go to Twitter.com and davidhwhitejr and you can follow my tweets.

Here are the games in the SEC and the key games nationally this weekend with predictions. Record 104-32

Troy @ South Carolina 11:21 a.m., SEC Network: South Carolina is just going to try and get through this game, but Troy can be tough. SC has Clemson and then Auburn coming up, but they better not overlook Troy. Troy is 5-4 this year and lost to Florida International 52-35 last week. They did take Oklahoma State to the wire only losing 41-38 early in the season, so they’re capable if you overlook them. South Carolina is not the type of team that just dominates on the scoreboard. They better be careful.

SC 35, Troy 28

Appalachian State @ Florida 11:30 a.m., PPV : App State has proven they can knock off the bigger schools like they did three years ago at Michigan. Florida is a team to me that seems like they’re just trying to get through the season and then focus on finishing up recruiting and getting ready for next year. Florida may have some trouble here. App State is 9-1 with their only loss coming to 6-4 Georgia Southern, 21-14 in overtime. They are a solid FCS team. Florida is probably totally deflated from the season, but they may just do enough to avoid a highly embarrassing upset.

Florida 24, App State 21

Ole Miss @ LSU 2:3o p.m., CBS: LSU has a lot to play for now because if Auburn goes to Glendale–there is a lot of work left for Auburn–they could possibly play in the Sugar Bowl. That will require them to beat Ole Miss at home tomorrow and Arkansas on the road next week. I do see LSU winning tomorrow. I don’t see them winning next week at Arkansas though.

LSU 28, Ole Miss 21

Arkansas @ Mississippi State 6 p.m. ESPN: The Hogs have been on a roll lately. They blasted South Carolina and looked like a top 10 team in the country. Arkansas, LSU and Alabama all playing for a possible Sugar Bowl berth. State has had a good year, but I don’t think they can hold this Razorback offense down and score enough points.

Arkansas 42, State 28

Tennessee @ Vandy 6:30 p.m., CSS: UT played very well against Ole Miss last week and Tyler Bray looks like he’s going to be a very good SEC quarterback. Vandy really struggling on both sides of the ball. Robbie Caldwell just hasn’t had time to employ an offensive system and Larry Smith is either not very well coached or just not very good.

UT 35, Vandy 21

Ohio State @ Iowa 2:30, ABC: Can Terrelle Pryor get it done in a hostile environment? I don’t think so. Ricky Stanzi and Iowa beat Ohio State in a hard fought game.

Iowa 31, Ohio State 28

Virginia Tech @ Miami: Tech has played very good ball since loss to James Madison. I think the loss to James Madison the second game was directly affected by the heartbreaking loss to Boise State to open the season the previous Monday Night, 33-30. They’ve been rolling ever since. Too much Tyrod Taylor and  Ryan Williams  for a team without its starting quarterback, Jacory Harris, though this backup is pretty good. Like the Hokies.

Va Tech 31, The U 24

(C.J. Mosley playing at a very high level for the Tide.)

Auburn should be No.1 in the BCS right now. After dominating Georgia, 49-31, with another very impressive performance in the second half, AU should have moved ahead of Oregon which barely got by a decent Cal team at Cal, 15-13. Cam Newton is clearly the best player in college football–I know I’m telling you something you already know. After his 151 yard rushing day with two touchdowns, and maybe more impressively, his 12-for-15 for 149 yard passing day with two touchdowns to Phillip Lutzenkirchen, which were beautiful passes, he’s just beyond words. These off field problems may not go away, but it looks to me like Auburn and maybe Cam are innocent in this incident. Cecil Newton looks to be the one who could be in trouble. The FBI is conducting interviews today so this may get interesting.
That aside, I sure am enjoying watching Cam and his offensive teammates play football. Cam has now run for 1,297 yards and completed 135-198 passes with 21 tds and six ints and 2,038 yards. Those are pretty staggering numbers. His efficiency rating is 183.58. He’s so dominant this Heisman race shouldn’t even be close. Hopefully, Auburn and Cam can get through this scandal without violations against Cam or Auburn. Hopefully neither party did anything wrong. I have a feeling Auburn is totally innocent in this. We’ll see about Cam.  There are some great playmakers around Cam as well who I have documented in earlier blogs. Lutzenkirchen reminds me of Colin Peak of last year at Alabama. Just a winner. The line is playing phenomenal and McCalebb is capable of breaking it any time. Dyer is just a hard-nosed runner who keeps getting better. He’s not at Marcus Lattimore’s level yet, but he’s pretty darn good. The receivers are excellent. I love T-Zac. That end around to him seems to work every time. Emory Blake and Darvin Adams dropped a pass apiece Saturday which is unusual for them. Like this group a lot though. Cam will get them the ball that’s for sure.

Defense played well at the end. This defense gives up a lot at times. Secondary still a little shaky, but Fairley is a beast. Linebackers pretty good and the dbs are athletic. It’s pretty hard to stop A.J. Green. He does that to a lot of people. I think the defense is good enough and the offense wins games.

AU gets two weeks off before Tide. I’m ready for this Cam deal to be over with so we can concentrate on football. Again, there may be something there, but hopeful that Auburn and Cam are not involved.

‘Bama looked good on Saturday. Saw the Mark Ingram of old on that 78-yard touchdown reception off a swing pass from Greg McElroy. Marquis Maze had a great game with that beautiful punt return being called back. Still caught a 45-yard td pass from McElroy. Caught five passes for 89 yards. Julio had a 56-yard run for a td, too. That was good to see. I’ve said all along this is a team of great players, just have to come together. Looks like they could have against State. McElroy 12-18-227 and two tds. Tide ran for 196. Need to get Trent back in. May hold him out against Georgia State, too, so he can be ready for AU.

Defense had some impressive numbers. Robert Lester had two more interceptions and now has seven on the season and is tied for the lead nationally with two others, Jayron Hosley of Virginia Tech and Mana Silva of Hawaii. He’s just a ball hawk. Also just a sophomore. Some good tackling numbers. C.J. Mosley was all over the field with 12 tackles. He’s a freshman. Mark Barron had 11, Demarcus Milliner had eight along with Courtney Upshaw and Dont’a Hightower. This defense may be coming together at the right time. This has been a young defense all along and that has been the difference in this year and last year. The offensive line’s been a little suspect too, but the team seemed to come together on Saturday. That could be a good sign going forward.

Now it’s Georgia State Thursday Night at 6:30 on ESPNU. Just need to play well and get ready for the Friday week.

My favorite part of the game Saturday was S’s “teaching moment” with A.J. McCarron. I interviewed McCarron in high school when he was at St. Paul’s in Mobile and he’s a bit of a prima donna. Saban’s going to get him straightened out before he takes over  the reins next year. S is not going to put up with mistakes and showboating. That’s one of the things I like that about him. He’s a tough one and a perfectionist no doubt.

Wow, will the Iron Bowl be fun. ‘Bama will try to ruin AU’s perfect season and AU will be trying to continue their run towards a national championship. What Alabama did last year was amazing, winning 14 straight. That’s hard to do. Auburn’s got a shot. We’ll see if they can keep it up. You never know in this game. Will have a full preview next Tuesday for the big game.

I was in Chicago over the weekend to see the Bears-Vikings game. The Bears have five guys on their team from Vandy, so it was a blast. The fans at Soldier Field were wild. They just trashed Favre and his teammates for 60 minutes. I really can’t repeat on the blog what was said, but it was kind of hilarious. Bears played great. People have called them a pretender all year and still aren’t buying into them, but if their offensive line can play how they did Sunday against Vikings and Cutler can play well and not throw costly interceptions, this team could be special. The defense is championship caliber. They are so opportunistic. Three interceptions against Favre. There were 62,00o people at Soldier Field. They redid it a couple of years ago and it’s an awesome atmosphere with very cool architecture, kept that old look of the columns in front with a modern looking sharp look in the stadium The fans are a lot of fun though some of them are a little scary. When the Bears scored there were high fives all over our row. The wind was blowing 20-30 so it was pretty cold in the stadium. My wife’s not big on the cold, but she hung in there pretty well. All in all, it was an awesome experience. Chicago is a fun city and NFL games are classic. Bears have very challenging schedule remaining, so it’ll be a challenge. Play at Miami Thursday which will be difficult. Then come home to play Michael Vick and the Eagles. Vick is playing on another level right now. He’s been like Cam in the pros. Just dominating.

Watched the Northwestern-Iowa game on Saturday before Auburn. Dan Persa, the Northwestern qb, was incredible. Single-handedly beat Iowa which was favored by a touchdown or maybe even more. He threw the game winning pass with just over a minute left and then ruptured his Achilles. That was a tough break, but it was an amazing performance by Persa. That guy is special. He’s a junior and he’ll be back.

What else can you say about Marcus Lattimore. He schooled Florida for over 200 yards (don’t have stats right in front of me) and showed he’s the best back in the country. Just an awesome player. That was big for SC to get the SEC East title. Very impressive performance. Should be a fun game with Auburn. Will mean even more if AU can beat ‘Bama. What is the deal with Florida’s offense? They’re clueless.

This weekend looks pretty solid. Here’s the SEC schedule and a couple of key national games. Ohio State goes to Iowa. Iowa will try their best to knock off the hated Buckeyes. Not a big believer in the Buckeyes on the big stage. Think Iowa can get it done though they’ll have to get over the Northwestern loss from last Saturday. That’s on ABC at 2:30. Also, Virginia Tech travels to Miami to take on the U at  2:30 on ESPN. ACC championship implications and a possible spot in the Orange Bowl on the line.

Here’s the SEC schedule for this week:

Georgia State @ Alabama 6:30 p.m., ESPNU

Troy @ South Carolina 11:21 a.m., SEC Network

Appalachian State @ Florida 11:30 a.m., PPV

Ole Miss @ LSU 2:30 p.m., CBS

Arkansas @ Miss. State 6 p.m., ESPN

Tennessee @ Vandy 6:30 p.m. CSS

Friday, Nov. 26

Auburn @ Alabama 1:30 p.m., CBS

(Robert Lester is having an amazing season.)

There just seems like there’s a new revelation every day. Now it’s Kenny Rogers saying that Cecil Newton was asking him for money, “between 100-180,000,” for Cam to go to Miss State. So much has been going on it’s got my head spinning. With the FBI now involved in the scandal, it looks bad for Cecil and Cam Newton. My assumption is that the FBI wanted to know if there was a pay for services illegality or maybe even a money laundering scheme with Cecil Newton’s church.
What does this mean for Auburn? That’s to be determined. Auburn has not been implicated in this scandal yet. There has been no connection to Cam Newton being offered money to play at Auburn, but the revelations are going to keep on coming in the next week.

A lot of pundits are saying there is no solid evidence against the Newtons and that most of the sources are anonymous. Well that’s not totally the case any more as John Bond, the former Miss. State quarterback, and Rogers have now come out against Cecil Newton saying he solicited them for money. So there is more than strong circumstantial evidence now. There are actual statements from named sources. I don’t agree that there is a “he said, he said,” going on. Now it looks like there is concrete evidence that Cecil Newton wanted money for his son to play. The question is: Did Cam Newton know about it? From his past transgressions at Florida (cheating three times, signing his name to a paper and then turning one in from the internet), one would think he is complicit.

But Auburn will play Newton. What do they have to lose? They don’t know what’s going to happen and he’s not been charged with anything, so you might as well play out the season and see how well you can do. Sure takes a lot of the luster out of what was a great season for Auburn. How will this affect them on the field? They could just go out forget about it and keep on rolling. Or the players could be distracted and not play very well. We’ll see tomorrow. The players and Cam Newton in particular will try to Bill Clinton-it and play football. But they have two pretty tough games coming up. We’ll see how it shakes out. I don’t see how the NCAA is going to be able to close this case soon, but now that the FBI is involved they may get faster closure than one would expect. This is a total mess and puts a damper on what has been a thrilling college football season. I feel bad for Auburn fans, but the rules are the rules and if you break them in a blatant manner and are found guilty, you have to pay the price.

On to the picks (Last week 7-3, Overall 97-30.)

Georgia @ Auburn 2:30, CBS: This game got a lot more interesting in the past week with the Cam Newton revelations. Georgia is fired up to ruin Auburn’s perfect season. Auburn is probably extremely mad over all the allegations against their quarterback. Can the Auburn secondary slow down Aaron Murray to A.J. Green? That’ll be difficult. The Georgia running game is a factor also. Ealey and King are good backs if they don’t fumble. How will Cam Newton respond to the allegations and the incessant talk about this issue? Can he compartmentalize like some athletes are able to do and have done in the past. Georgia has beaten Auburn the past four years. The Georgia and Auburn defenses are shaky, so it’s what team can come up with more stops and who takes care of the ball the best. Georgia gets it done and pulls off the upset.

Georgia 27, Auburn 24

Mississippi State @ Alabama 6:15, ESPN 2: No one would have thought this before the season or even four or five weeks ago, but this should be a pretty competitive game. Will Alabama still be reeling from the LSU game and burnt out on the season? Will Chris Relf, Vic Ballard and the State offense be able to have their way with a vulnerable defense? Mississippi State is playing good football under Dan Mullen, but I don’t think they have enough horses to win this contest. Greg McElroy and company do enough to get by and get ready to finish the season with an outside chance to win the West if Auburn loses to Georgia and them and LSU loses.

Alabama 28, Mississippi State 17

Ole Miss @ Tennessee, 11 a.m., CBS: UT desperately needs a win and so does Ole Miss. UT has shown signs of being competitive this year. They win at home this time.

Tennessee 35, Ole Miss 31

South Carolina @ Florida: I would love to see Steve Spurrier and South Carolina get it done here. I’m tired of seeing the Gators in the SEC championship game. But they’re playing a lot better football now and I think the fact they’re in Gainesville puts them over the top. What’s happened to South Carolina’s defense? Arkansas schooled them.

Florida 31, South Carolina 24

Other games:

LSU 42, Louisiana-Monroe 3

Northwestern 28, Iowa 24

Miami (Fl) 31, Georgia Tech 17

Ohio State 28, Penn State 21

Florida State 35, Clemson 34

(Cam Newton and Gene Chizik in happier times talking with “The Wolf.” of CBS)

Sammy Arthur:

ESPN reports that Newton cheated three times at Florida on papers for class.
Newton: