The Belmont Stakes Preview, Prediction

The 155th edition of The “Test of the Champion,” the Belmont Stakes, has a post time of 6:02 PM CT and will be televised by Fox and Fox Sports 1.

The distance is 1 1/2 miles, the longest of the three American Classic Races. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles, Mage won that, and the Preakness is 1 3/16 miles, which National Treasure won. The Belmont comes three weeks after the Preakness. Mage is not running, but National Treasure is.

The track record is 2:24 minutes set by the greatest of all time, Secretariat, back in 1973. The great one won by 31 lengths. It was a dominant performance by the Triple Crown winner that year, and, inarguably, the greatest horse in horse racing history.

There are some interesting storylines. Forte is back after being scratched from the Derby on the morning of the race due to an injured foot.

Arcangelo is trained by Jena Antonucci, who is the 11th female trainer to race a horse in the Belmont and is attempting to the be the first to win it.

Bob Baffert has National Treasure in the race. While Baffert is one of the most polarizing figures in horse racing due to several doping violations, he has won 6 Derbies, 8 Preaknesses, and 3 Belmonts and has trained two Triple Crown winners in American Pharaoh in 2015 and Justify in 2018.

The weather is perfect, 72 and partly cloudy. After a tough week with all the smoke on the east coast, the air has cleared out and they’re good to go.

So, which three year old will win this race? I’ll give’er a whirl.

The post positions, horses, trainers jockeys and odds listed in that order.

  1. Tapit Shoes, Brad Cox, Jose Ortiz, 20/1

  2. Tapit Trice, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 3/1

  3. Arcangelo, Jena Antonucci, Javier Castellano, 8/1

  4. National Treasure, Bob Baffert, John Valazquez, 5/1

  5. Il Miracolo, Antonio Sano, Marcos Meneses, 30/1

  6. Forte, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz, Jr., 5/2

  7. Hit Show, Brad Cox, Manny Franco, 10/1

  8. Angel of Empire, Brad Cox, Flavien Prat, 7/2

  9. Red Route One, Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario, 15/1

    Winner

    This thoroughbred hasn’t raced since April 1st when it won the Florida Derby defeating Mage, the Kentucky Derby winner that is not racing at Belmont Park. He defeated Mage twice and also defeated Preakness winner National Treasure in the Breeders Cup Juvenile as a two year old. You can look at the layoff in one of two ways:

    The horse could be rusty and not ready. Or he could be well rested and ready to run. I’m going to take the latter philosophy.

    So my “philosophical” decision is also based on the fact that trainer Todd Pletcher, the 55 year old from Dallas, has won 4 Belmonts, in 2007, 2014, 2017 and last year, 2022. Last year it was Mo Donegal.

    In 2017, It was Tapwrit, which coincided on the same day Brownie was canning everything from 6 feet and in. Thus, Walter tagged him that name for his marksmanship with the flat stick that day. Thirty year old jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has won two Belmonts, in 2018 and 2022, teaming up with Pletcher on Mo Donegal last year. I like this combination and I like this horse. A lot. Give me,

    Forte

    Win, Forte, Place Tapit Trice, Show, Arcangelo.

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