After a 31-20 home victory over Ole Miss on Oct. 20th of last year, Bryan Harsin’s first season at Auburn was looking like a resounding success as the team moved to 6-2. But then things spiraled out of control as the Tigers lost their final 5 games including a heartbreaking 24-22 four overtime loss to the Crimson Tide at Auburn. Harsin fired offensive coordinator Mike Bobo before the end of the season, and after the Birmingham Bowl, a 17-13 loss to Houston, defensive coordinator Derek Mason left to take the defensive coordinator position at Oklahoma State and a $400,000 pay cut. Mason wasn’t hurting financially, but still took a significant pay cut, so things seemed to be really dysfunctional at Auburn.

Then the offseason featured a controversial accusation that Harsin was having an affair with one of his support staff workers. The rumor was false and led to a lot of uneasiness at Auburn. Some of the Auburn boosters wanted to get rid of Auburn, but cooler heads prevailed and he was retained. Harsin recovered though he didn’t sign a player in the spring signing period of 2022, but landed a class ranking of 21 in the 2022 recruiting rankings by 247 Sports and had a solid spring practice. He seemed relaxed in the spring game, and last week at Media Days as he addressed the controversy and said it was totally inaccurate and had actually brought the team closer together. The Tigers lost 20+ players in the transfer portal, but return some talented guys, who can make this team a possible darkhorse in the SEC, though they do have the No.1 most difficult strength of schedule in the country according to the Football Power Index provided by ESPN. It always seems like the Tigers have one of the toughest, if not the toughest schedules in the country every year. But the team has some nice pieces at several position groups. I’ll dive into those in a minute and then go over the schedule and prognosticate what the Tigers can achieve this season in Harsin’s 2nd year.

Harsin has a new offensive coordinator in Eric Keisau and a new defensive coordinator in Jeff Schmedding. He has some former Auburn standouts on his staff in running backs coach, the great Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, and defensive backs coach Zac Etheridge. Both know what they’re doing, were exceptional players for the Tigers, and are terrific recruiters. Both Keisau and Schmedding worked with Harsin at Boise State where Harsin was 82-31 in 9 seasons with five, 10 win seasons and 7 bowl games. He had some mixed results at times, but was extremely solid in Boise. They brind his toughness and intelligence along with them. Harsin has great faith in his young coordinators.

Quarterback is the lingering question for the Tigers. Zach Calzada comes over from Texas A&M where he started 10 games in 2021 and was 184 of 327 passes, 56%, for 2,185 yards, 17 TDs and 9 ints. He’s got outstanding toughness as Jimbo Fisher alluded to in his talk last Thursday at Media Days. Fisher recalled the Auburn game last season in which Calzada had to leave the game as his non throwing shoulder popped out of place, and Fisher was nervous because all he had left was a walk on redshirt freshman quarterback. But Calzada popped his shoulder back in place and led the Aggies to the victory over the Tigers, 20-3. The Aggies defense had something to do with it, but Calzada is a warrior, and completed 21 of 31 passes for 285 yards, 3 TDs and 1 int in leading the Aggies to a monumental 41-38 upset of then No.1 Alabama. So Auburn fans have to like that. Calzada missed the spring as he rehabbed his shoulder, but is a full go right now heading into fall drills, and Tank Bigsby has been very impressed with Calzada’s attention to detail and his work ethic.

TJ Finley also returns after completing 70 off 128 passes, 55%, for 827 yards, 6 TDs and 1 int, in 6 games as a starter. He had a pretty rough Birmingham Bowl, and he’s not very mobile, while Calzada is better than average. Robby Ashford, a transfer from Oregon and a former Hoover High School product, is also in the mix. Ashford was the offensive MVP of the spring game completing 12-of-16 passes for 132 yards and having some nice scrambles and runs. Four star freshman Holden Gernier played well in the spring game. He was 9 of 11 for 71 yards and a TD. I really like Gernier’s future for the Tigers. He may not start this season, but he could very well be the long term solution for the Tigers in 2023 and beyond. The Savannah, GA. product is a really fine QB.

The great Bigsby returns at running back for his junior season. Tank rushed for 1,099 yards and 10 TDs last season and caught 21 passes for 184 yards. He’s a total weapon. Behind him is highly talented sophomore Jarquez Hunter, who showed signs of being a standout for the Tigers in his young career as well starting last season. Hunter rushed 89 times for 593 yards, 6.7 yards per carry, along with 3 TDs. He caught 12 passes for 61 yards and a TD as well. He’s a tough runner between the tackles and has exceptional breakaway speed and take it to the house ability on every carry. Sean Jackson is a redshirt freshman behind them. Jordan Ingram is a sophomore transfer and Damari Alston is a 4 star true freshman. So there is talent behind the dynamic duo.

The offensive line is loaded, big and talented. Nick Brahms, 6’4” 300 pounds, is the leader at center. He’s got 33 starts under his belt and is an unquestioned leader on the team. Left guard Brandon Council has 37 starts and is another valuable leader upfront and for the entire team. Council is 6’4”, 328. At left tackle, Kilian Zierer is a transfer and is 6’7”, 312. The Tigers are high on him. On the right side, Keiondre Jones is a redshirt junior who has 19 starts under his belt. Jones is 6’4”, 340. At right tackle, senior Alec Jackson is 6’5”, 321. And there is good depth behind those guys. So that is a position of strength for offensive line coach Will Friend, a stellar veteran coach, who’s coached a lot of excellent O Lines.

Tight end is a real position of strength for the Tigers. John Samuel Shenker, a 6’4”, 250 pound redshirt senior, caught 33 passes for 413 yards in 2021. He’s terrific. Luke Deal, 6’5”, 257, and Tyler Fromm, 6’5”, 243, are both outstanding players, who give Auburn that extra gear in the passing game to offset a relatively inexperienced wide receiver group. Junior Brandon Frazier, 6’7”, 262, is another guy who has a shot to do big things, and 4 star freshman Micah Riley-Ducker is a nice addition to the tight end room with a bright future.

Wide receiver may be a little inexperienced, but there is plenty of potential with good quarterback play. Six two, 230 pound Shedrick Jackson is the leader. Jackson is a senior who caught 40 passes for 527 yards and a TD last season. Malcolm Johnson Jr. Ze’Vion Capers, Ja’Varrius Johnson, Koy Moore and Tar’Varish Dawson Jr. are other players who are in the mix to be playmakers on the perimeter for the Tigers. If the quarterback can come through, this could be a solid unit for the Tigers.

On defense, the Tigers will be led by senior d end/Outside linebacker Derick Hall, junior defensive end Colby Wooden, senior middle linebacker Own Pappoe, junior corner Jaylin Simpson, junior free safety Zion Puckett, senior corner Nehemiah Pritchett and sophomore nickelback Donovan Kaufman. Hall is 6’3”, 256, had 52 tackles with 12 1/2 tackles for loss and 9 sacks. He will be a force. Wooden had 61 tackles in 2021 with 8 1/2 for loss and 4 1/2 sacks. They will be enforcers as bookends on the defensive line. Wooden is massive at 6’5”, 284. Pappoe was hurt a lot of the 2021 season but is a major talent and will lead the linebacking corps. In 5 games in 2021, he posted 23 tackles with 3 for loss. He’s a talented, physical player, at 6’1”, 225 with great leadership skills. Back to the interior of the D line, Marcus Harris is a 6’3”, 294 defensive tackle, and talented and physical Oregon transfer Jayson Jones, 6’6”, 328, will man the nose guard spot. At corner, Simpson had 27 tackles last season and an int in 2021, but is capable of multiple ints. He took a 100+ yarder back a couple of years ago in Auburn’s opening game versus Kentucky at home, a 29-13 Auburn victory. It was a pivotal play in the game and what an explosive play on defense. Zion Puckett posted 48 tackles last season and is another guy who can make game changing plays at free safety. Pritchett posted 27 tackles last season and is another leader at corner. Kaufman, a transfer last season from Vanderbilt, is a ballhawk and stellar, and very good in the punt return and kickoff return game. Wide receiver Ja’Varrius Johnson will also be a punt returner. Wesley Steiner, a 6’0”, 237 pound junior and transfer Eku Leota, 6’4”, 257, are some other linebackers who may start.

So the defense looks solid and could be spectacular.

Oscar Chapman returns at punter. He averaged 44.1 yards per punt last season. Anders Carlson returns as kicker after some mixed results last season, but with a ton of talent and a strong leg. He was 35 of 36 on extra points, but was just 14 of 21 on field goals, an off year for him. That’s 67%. He was 6 for 6 from 20-29 yards, 2 for 4 on 30-39 yds, 6 for 8 on 40-49 yards, very good, and 0 for 3 on 50+ yards. You expect Carlson to have a solid year in 2022. Ja’Varrius Johnson and Kaufman will return punts, so explosive potential there, and Pritchett, who averaged 31.3 yards per kick return, Hunter, who averaged 19.5 but has the ability for house calls with his immense speed, and Kaufman, who averaged 20.3 yards, will handle kickoff returns.

Schedule

The Tigers open with Mercer at home on Saturday, 9/3, with a 6 PM CT kickoff on SEC Network+ and ESPN+. Then San Jose State comes to Jordan-Hare on Saturday, 9/10, with a 6:30 PM CT kickoff on ESPNU. Penn State is next in a huge non conference tilt on Saturday, 9/17, at 2:30 PM CT on CBS. Next, Auburn hosts Missouri on Saturday, 9/24, with time and network to be determined. LSU is next at home on Saturday, 10/1, time/network to be determined. All of the rest of the games are also, time/network to be determined. @Georgia, Saturday, 10/8, @Ole Miss, Saturday, 10/15, off on Saturday, 10/22, Arkansas @home, Saturday, 10/29, @Mississippi State, Saturday, 11/5, A&M @ home, Saturday, 11/12, Western Kentucky @home, Saturday, 11/19, and @Alabama, Saturday, 11/26, with time most likely at 2:30 PM CT on CBS.

Auburn could be 4-0 heading into the LSU game in a game they have a very good shot at at home. Penn State will be a little tricky, but I like the Tigers there. Then @ Georgia and @Ole Miss in consecutive Saturdays (10/8 and 10/15) is tough, but 1-1 out of those two games would be highly acceptable. Arkansas, Mississippi State, A&M and at Alabama, wow, that’s another gauntlet. But that’s life in the SEC.

I look at the Tigers winning anywhere from 6 to 8 games. Staying healthy they could pull off 8 and then play in a bowl game, win it, and recruit relentlessly. Right now, the Tigers have 4 commits in the 2023 class. Five 11, 175 93 four star wide receiver Karmello English from Central-Phenix City, 92, 4 star running back Jeremiah Cobb, 5’11”, 185 from Montgomery, 91,, 4 star safety Terrance Love, 6’3”, 195 from Fairburn, GA., and 90, 4 star offensive lineman Bradyn Joiner from Auburn High School. Joiner is listed as interior lineman. He’s 6’2”, 319, so excellent size.

So I’m optimistic about Auburn’s season. The Tigers can have a solid year, and maybe an even better than solid season behind Tank and company and good quarterback play. I like Calzada to start, and stellar play from the defense with some stars on that side of the ball will be critical. Harsin has had to change the culture at Auburn. The players had become complacent under the previous coaching staff, but now seem to be bought in to Harsin and his plan. Harsin can’t have a 4 or 5 win season, but anything on the lines of 7 or 8 victories and a bowl victory would enhance momentum down on the Plains.

Monday or Tuesday of next week, 8/1 or 8/2, Georgia