Wow, what a week; Saturday’s bowl predictions

Couldn’t ask for a more interesting and volatile week in football coaching in this state. First, Ted Roof goes to UCF as their defensive coordinator to reunite with George O’Leary, whom he coached with at Georgia Tech. Then Jim McElwain goes back to his roots out west to Colorado State to be their head coach. And to cap it off, Gus Malzahn left Auburn to become Arkansas State’s head ball coach. Amazing turn of events.
Roof’s move made sense. Roof and Auburn needed a change. He just couldn’t get through to these players this season for some reason. His defenses have never been great at Auburn, but he seemed to be pretty good at making adjustments at halftime of games last year, the national championship season. I don’t know if the players couldn’t get it this year, or that Roof just couldn’t communicate to them the schemes and motivate them. I think it was a little bit of both. Roof is used to Duke players and Minnesota players; kind of a different intelligence level of athlete. The Auburn players want somebody tough who’ll get after them and just set them up to make plays. Roof and Chiz tried to simplify things with these guys because they just weren’t getting the defensive schemes. Nothing seemed to work. Youth had a good hit to do with it. Maybe it was an inability to grasp the concepts. But then again, maybe Roof didn’t have good schemes and couldn’t fire these guys up. I think it was both. He just couldn’t seem to motivate these guys enough to play at a high level. So change was good for both Roof and Auburn. I’ve heard Chiz has brought a renewed spirit to the defense this week. They seem to be having more fun, flying around. The bowl game will tell us more. We’ll see who Chiz hires. I’ve heard Mark Stoops, dc of Florida State, mostly, as the guy who could take over. Will be an interesting time. There is a lot of talent on defense at least according to Rivals and ESPN rankings. So something needed to be done to get these guys to reach their potential. Maybe the coaching change is what they needed.

Malzahn also wanted a change. He had a tough year with the offense this year, and while I think he loved Auburn, Chiz was getting more involved in the offense and maybe getting under Malzahn’s skin some. He didn’t have a quarterback this year, the line was young and Michael Dyer sounds like he was a major headache. Emory Blake was hurt at critical times and they didn’t throw the ball to Lutz enough. There just weren’t enough playmakers. Next year will be better with a more experienced line, and more receivers who can make an impact. Running back should be loaded even without Dyer, who is probably off the team. I’ve heard impressive things about Florida transfer Mike Blakely. Blakely, 5’9″, 206, sounds like a real player. Power runner with speed. Sounds better than Dyer, who was good, but for some reason, not just tremendous like Trent. He had a couple of good years but turned out to be more trouble than he was worth. Corey Grant should back up Blakely and has great speed and elusiveness. Not big; more like McCalebb. Onterio may be back along with Tre Mason and super freshman T.J. Yeldon, now a five star commit. Yeldon is 6’2′, 2o5, runs a 4.4 40 and is awesome on film at Daphne High School. He may push for a lot of playing time next year. The other freshman back will be Jovon Robinson, a four star out of Memphis, who is 6’1″, 218 and has very good speed. If AU can settle in on Kiehl Frazier and he can show that he can throw the ball downfield some to go along with his tremendous running ability and some playmakers develop along with Blake and Lutz, if both come back, the offense should be a lot better next year. I don’t know about great at the beginning, but could develop well. Trovon Reed needs to step up at wideout. It’s time for him. Others need to step up on the perimeter. That’s important. There will be some young linemen who have developed as redshirts and the guys coming back, particularly center Reese Dismukes, should be excellent next year. Chiz just needs to hire someone who can take advantage of this talent and work with  Frazier and develop him if he’s the man. I’ve heard the oc from Samford is highly thought of and there’s another oc out in Texas, not sure which school, think it’s the old A&M coordinator who might be a possibility.

Defense should be a lot better next year with line back in tact. There is a lot of size and talent there. They should be good next year. Linebackers need to come along, but there is talent. Secondary has good young players, too, just need a leader out there who can motivate and relate to these players and get them to play loose and play smart and tackle better. The cupboard has is pretty full with talent just needs to have someone get the chemistry right and motivate them on both sides of the ball.

McElwain’s departure from the Tide is not that surprising. He’s had a good career in Tuscaloosa in four years and was ready to take the next step if the right job came along and it did for him. He’s done a good job and has been blessed with two outstanding running backs, terrific offensive linemen and Julio. He had a solid, heady quarterback in Greg McElroy, who was a playmaker and did win some games for his teams especially the Florida SEC title game in 2009. McElroy was awesome that game. I thought McElwain brought A.J. along pretty well this year. A.J. made some mistakes in his first season as qb, but he had some good games. He was pretty solid. Gotta figure out LSU though. McElwain will be tested in his last game, which should be a riveting one for the national title. How A.J. plays will go a long way towards determining the outcome. Trent will play a huge role, don’t get me wrong, but A.J. will have to make some plays with his arm. Maze, Hanks, Michael Williams and Smelley will have to step up. Maybe a guy like Kenny Bell or DeAndrew White can make plays and help their team get in the end zone. There will be a lot of Trent both running the ball and in the screen game. Eddie will help. But A.J. will have to make some throws downfield that count. McElwain will be in an epic chess match with his counterpart, John Chavis, dc of LSU. Alabama moved the ball well Nov.5, just had some costly turnovers. They need to get Trent the ball both on the ground AND through the air. I know Trent wants to make a statement in probably his last college game and win his second national championship. He’s been extremely special. It would be nice to see Trent go north of 150 total yards in this game. That could push the Tide over the top. But these two teams played before, they know each other, and there will be adjustments. A.J. will be called on to do something to help his team win. He will have to deliver.

Then McElwain will head out to Fort Collins, Colorado for a new challenge. Who S hires is a mystery. S has so many things to concern himself with right now, that I don’t even know how much he can do as far as getting a new oc in until after the championship game. Maybe he can do some with dead period for recruiting starting Monday. There are plenty of good coaches out there and S will get a quality guy; just not sure if he’s been able to even think about it. He’s trying to win another national championship, so he’s pretty preoccupied with that. He has some good offensive players returning next year; D.J. Fluker’s announcement that he was coming back is a nice surprise. Barrett Jones has gotten his undergrad degree and is working on a graduate degree so not sure what he’ll do. Cyrus and Arie Kouandijo will be back and they’ve got unlimited, awesome potential. Steen and Warmack are underclassmen. The only senior who plays a lot is William Vlachos, but he’s an excellent center. We’ll see who replaces him. A.J. should improve a lot if he can get the mental game of the position down. Phillip Sims and Phillip Ely could be factors at qb as well. and Eddie and Jalston along with Blake Sims and five star freshman Dee Hart, who hurt his knee before the season, will be back. Brent Calloway, if he can get it together after his indefinite suspension, is a four star running back as well. There are a couple of incoming freshmen; Justin Taylor (5.7 three star, 5’10”,205) and four star athlete Kenyan Drake (6’1″, 195) who can either help of be part of the future. So if A.J. can get it done and some of these receivers like White, Duron Carter, Kenny Bell, Marvin Shinn and Danny Woodson can emerge, the offensive coordinator will have a lot to work with. Seems like Boise State OC Brent Pease would be a good choice. Or TCU’s co-offensive coordinator Jarrett Anderson. Really think Pease could do a good job. S will make a good hire. He always does. Defense will be a little rebuilding with loss of Upshaw, Hightower, Barron, Menzie, Chapman and possibly Lester and Dre, though I think Lester should come back, maybe Dre, too. Nico Johnson, C.J. Mosley and Jesse Williams will be leaders along with cornerback Dee Milliner. There is a lot of young talent locked and loaded in the cupboard, but a little reloading is necessary.

Bowl games tomorrow (three of them):

Record: 89-39

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: Albuquerque, New Mexico, 1 P.M. CT., ESPN

Temple (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-4)

Temple running back Bernard Pierce has rushed for 1,381 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. He was chosen as an All-American by Phil Steele. Wyoming lost to Utah State, 63-19, among their four losses. Their other losses came to Nebraska (38-14), TCU (31-20) and Boise State (36-14). Temple’s losses came to Penn State (14-10), Toledo (36-13), Bowling Green (13-10) and Ohio (35-31). The Cowboys are led on the ground by Alvester Alexander (678 yards and six TDs) and qb Brett Smith (645 yards, 10 TDs). Smith has completed 233-of-385 passes for 2,495 yards and 18 TDs against 8 ints. Chris McNeill leads the Cowboys with 42 receptions for 504 yards and four TDs. Temple has three QBs who have completed 108-of-186 passes  (58.4%) for 1,479 yards and 10 scores against four ints. Linebacker Stephen Johnson leads the Temple defense in tackles with 113. Linebacker Tahir Whitehead has 12 tackles for loss and five sacks. Strong safety Luke Riff leads the Cowboys defense in tackles with 97. Defensive end Gabe Knapton has seven tackles for loss and six sacks.

I look at the two teams common opponent, Bowling Green, and Wyoming beat them by a point, 28-27, and Temple lost by three, 13-10. But I still like Pierce and the running game of Temple and the Temple defense, which is third in the country in scoring defense,  to be the difference.

Temple 24, Wyoming 20

 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Boise, Idaho, 4:30 P.M. CT, ESPN:

Ohio (9-4) vs. Utah State (7-5)

Auburn fans remember Utah State well as they came within two minutes of upsetting the Tigers in the first game of the season. Auburn prevailed 42-38, but it was an outstanding effort by the Aggies. Aggies’ Linebacker Bobby Wagner has 140 tackles on the season, 10 1/2 tackles for loss and four sacks. Running back Robert Turbin has run for 1,416 yards and 19 TDs. Quarterback Chuckie Keaton has completed 106-of-174 passes for 1,200 yards and 11 TDs against two interceptions. Ohio’s offense is led by running back Donte Harden who has rushed for 939 yards, but only two touchdowns. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton has completed 248-of-389 passes (63.8%) for 3,082 yards, 26 TDs and 10 ints. Linebacker Noah Keller leads the defense with 105 tackles and seven tackles for loss.

I think Frank Solich, the head coach at Ohio, is a nice man, but I’m not sold on him as a coach. He’s good enough to take Ohio to a bowl game most years, but he just seems to not be able to get over the hump in big games. He did it at Nebraska when he was really out of his league there after taking over from the stellar Tom Osborne. In the one common opponent, New Mexico, Ohio beat them, 44-24, and Utah State beat them, 24-21. I like Utah State coach Gary Anderson to get it done over Solich. Aggies win a close one.

Utah State 34, Ohio 31

The R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: New Ahlins, La., 8 P.M. CT, ESPN

Louisiana Lafayette (8-4) vs. San Diego State (8-4)

Ronnie Hillman is the man at running back for SDSU having rushed for 1,656 yards and 19 touchdowns. He has a long TD run of 99 yards. He averages 5.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Ryan Lindley completed 209-of-398 passes (52 %) for 2,740 yards and 20 TDs against eight ints. Not a great completion percentage, but Lindley is a pretty productive signal caller. Colin Lockett has 52 catches for 885 yards and five TDs and Gavin Escobar has 47 for 710 and 7 TDs. Linebacker Miles Burris leads the defense with 72 tackles, 19 for loss and eight sacks. DB Larry Parker has seven ints.

Alonzo Harris leads La Lafayette with 638 yards and eight TDs on the ground. Quarterback Blaine Gautier completed 192-304 passes (63%) for 2,488 yards and 20 TD against five ints. Javone Lawson has caught 54 balls for 899 yards and six TDs. Ladarius Green has 46 catches and seven TDs and Darryl Surgent has 25 catches and six scores. The defense is led by linebacker Lance Kelley who has 107 stops on the season, eight and a half tackles for loss and three sacks. Linebacker Devin Lewis-Buchanan has 78 tackles and 10.5 for loss. Defensive end Bernard Smith has 6.5 sacks and the Ragin’ Cajuns have 14 interceptions on the season as a team, 24th best in the country; tied with San Diego State.

In the final analysis, I like SDSU’s offense and defense to do more than La-Lafayette’s. Like Hillman to get north of 120 yards. The Aztecs just seem a little stronger to me than the upstart Ragin’ Cajuns under former North Alabama Coach Mark Hudspeth, who did a terrific job at UNA taking them to the playoffs in Division II football five times in seven years and leading them to the semifinals three times in 2003, 2005 and 2008. He was 66-21 at UNA and then spent two seasons as passing coordinator/receivers coach at Miss. State under Dan Mullen. He’s an up and comer at 43 years old. Could take the Ragin’ Cajuns to consistent bowl games and then maybe move on to a bigger job. But like SDSU in this one. Again, not by much.

San Diego State 42, La. Lafayette 35

(Gus Malzahn, left, and Jim McElwain take head coaching positions.)

 

 

 

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