U. S. Open Preview, prediction

Olympic Club is a tremendous venue for the 112th playing of the United States Open, and this year’s tournament, like all of the majors in the last three or four years, is wide open as far as who will win. Olympic is playing 7,170 yards. No. 15 is a 670 yard par-five. Bubba Watson said in one of his practice rounds he hit driver, driver and was still 60 yards short. Birdies will be at a premium. Pars may be at more of a premium. Lee Janzen won here in 1998 at even par. Looks like even or maybe even 1 over or 2 over will win it. Whoever keeps it in the fairway the most (driving accuracy) and can sink some critical putts, will win this bear of a venue. I had the very good fortune of playing Olympic in 1999 as a guy asked me on when I was out there, and it’s a magnificent course. I thought when I hit the turn at nine, that I had just died and gone to Heaven. It was 65 degrees, the sky was clear as a whistle, the oak trees were fantastically colored in front of the pristine green and blue backdrop and the course was plush and a beautiful green. It was hard now. No.2, the 428 yard par-four, is like driving in a cave with trees lined all along each wall of the cave. Tough, tough driving hole. The course is very, very  tight. I went 49-42 and was pretty pleased with my backside as I got up and down a lot. That’ll be another key for these guys, getting up and down. Got to chip well on this course. Eighteen is the terrific finishing hole, that’s not long at 344 yards, but puts a premium on accuracy off the tee and the green slopes from back to front. An approach that lands on the front of the green is probably coming back down in the fairway. If you’re above the hole you have a very slick putt that if you knock it by the hole you could go a long way past. You can score anywhere from birdie to triple bogey. Par is a very good score on 18.
So who will win? I’ve got six guys. Rory has the game of course. If he’s accurate off the tee, he’ll be right there. His putting hurt him last week at Memphis, so if he hasn’t gotten that fixed, don’t think he can win. He’s in there though. Luke Donald, with his accuracy and putting is certainly in the hunt. To me though, Luke as solid of a player he is on the regular stops, just can’t do enough to win majors. Maybe he breaks through this time.

You’ve got to put Phil in there. I’m sure he wants to win an Open so badly as that’s a title that has eluded him over the years with a lot of frustrating finishes. Just seemed like he had it at Winged Foot in 2006 and was on the verge of winning his third major in a row after winning the 2005 PGA and the ’06 Masters. But he made an error on the 18th tee going with driver and doubled 18 losing the tournament by a shot to Geoff Ogilvy. He’s had some heartbreak at Bethpage Black and the amazing putt on 18 by Payne Stewart on Pinehurst No. 2 to defeat Phil by a shot in 1999. Phil needs to get it done pretty soon or the opportunities are going to run out for the hall of famer who will be 42 tomorrow. That would be a nice story if Phil gets it done.

Tiger, of course, is in there after his recent brilliance at the Memorial. That was his fifth time to win at the Memorial.  It’s another course he’s owned like Bay Hill, where he won his seventh Arnold Palmer title in March. Can Tiger be accurate enough to handle the precision required to play Olympic? Can he putt well enough? He could. Just still not sure what you’re going to get with Tiger in the majors. He could be there at the end with a chance to win it. Not sure he’s the closer he once was. He’s not a guarantee like he used to be. The most dominant talent in golf since Nicklaus, he still may be on his way back but not there yet. He may get it all the way back this weekend. Certainly a favorite.

Another guy I like who’s under the radar, but is one of the best ball strikers on the tour is Louis Oosthuizen. The South African made into a playoff with Bubba at the Masters and is a very solid player and good putter. His accuracy should put him right in the thick of things and he’s pretty long. Like Louis’ chances.

Bubba not one of my favorites this week because of his driving accuracy. Longest hitter on the tour, but not real accurate at 79th in driving accuracy. Think that will plague him at Olympic.

I’m going with Jason Dufner. He has played a lot this year and he’s learned from his near miss at the PGA last year. He’s an excellent ball striker and when he’s on, which has been a lot recently, he is outstanding. Putts well. Just solid all around game. Duffner over Tiger, Phil and Louis by a shot or two to capture his first major. Would be a nice thing for Auburn University (Dufner an AU graduate) after the tragic weekend last week.

It will be great to be an Auburn Tiger on Sunday as Jason Dufner (pictured above) captures 112th U.S. Open.