Looking for a riveting weekend of college football as there are some major SEC tilts which could determine a pecking order in the conference. Alabama and Auburn have huge games and there are some other key matchups. Here’s the rundown on the action this weekend. (Last weeks’ record: 13-3. Overall: 43-7).
No.1 Alabama @ No.10 Arkansas 2:30 p.m., CBS: The game’s in Fayetteville so I see that as the only chance Ark has of pulling this off. Otherwise, Alabama has all the advantages in personnel and coaching.
Alabama is averaging 542 total yards per game. Arkansas averages 483. Alabama is averaging 44.7 points per game while Arkansas is at 35.3. Ryan Mallett is an excellent passer, but Greg McElroy is every bit as effective and he has some outstanding targets to throw to as does Mallett. The Razorbacks are led by Greg Childs who has 19 catches for 254 yards and three tds. He caught the game winning 40 yard reception last week in a huge win for the Hogs over Georgia at Athens.
But the running game is where Alabama dominates the Razorbacks this time. Mark Ingram gained 150 yards on limited carries last week with two tds. Last year’s Heisman winner looks like he’s in late season form. My answer to the question of who’s better Trent or Mark is: Who cares? This team wants to win a national championship and both backs playing gives this team maybe one of the best running back tandems of all time in college football. The offensive line is stellar.
Both offenses should put points on the board, so which defense can get more stops? I think it’ll be Alabama. Arkansas is going to hope it can stop the running game and make McElroy beat them through the air. That’s what they tried to do last year, but still lost 35-7. Ryan Mallett is certainly a better player this year, but the Tide will try to make the Hogs one dimensional. They will stop any kind of rushing attack and Nick Saban and Kirby Smart will employ five and sometimes six db’s to neutralize Mallett, Childs, Joe Adams and D.J. Williams. Alabama, which didn’t show much defensively in the first three games, is going to blitz more on defense to put pressure on Mallett and force him to make quick decisions and quick throws. Marcell Dareus will need to be a big factor in the game for ‘Bama as will the rest of the front seven. I like Mark Barron and the dbs to get it done enough and I think Dont’a Hightower should have a big game. He wants revenge for Arkansas ruining his season last year with a cut block that blew out his knee. Look for Hightower to maybe hurt some people in this one.
All in all, I can’t see the Tide losing. Too many weapons on offense and a defense that is improving every game and will put some more blitz packages in and disguise coverages. Alabama goes to 4-0 overall and wins its first SEC game. It won’t be easy, but the Tide is too much for the Hogs on offense.
Alabama 42, Arkansas 31
N0.12 South Carolina @ No. 17 Auburn 6:45 p.m., ESPN: These are two evenly matched teams, but there are some stats that stand out. Auburn leads the conference in rushing offense at 259 per game. South Carolina leads the conference in rushing defense allowing only 60 per game. In total defense, SC is 10th in the conference and AU is 11th. SC allows 327 yards per game and AU 342. Auburn is 11th in pass defense and SC is 12th. Alshon Jeffrey leads the SEC in receptions with 19 for 306 but no tds. Marcus Lattimore is second in the conference in rushing with 333 yards on 70 carries with five tds. He’s averaging 111 yards per game.
South Carolina has 11 sacks overall and AU has eight. SC is second least penalized team in the conference (15-99) and AU is tied for 10th (25-185).
But the most telling stat to me is Red Zone offense and defense. SC is first in the conference in scoring in the red zone. They are 12-for-12 with 10 tds. Auburn is 10th (9-11, 6 tds). SC also has the best red zone defense allowing six scores on 11 opportunities (54.5%) and 0 tds, while Auburn is 8th allowing 9-of-10 with 7 tds.
Michael Dyer will certainly want to step up in this game to prove he is the best frosh back in the country; better than Lattimore. Lattimore will do the same.
Can Stephen Garcia get it done through the air against a shaky AU secondary? Garcia is erratic; good at times, not so good at others. Can Cam Newton take advantage of what’s not such a good Carolina secondary? Can AU get it in the end zone if they get in the red zone? We’ll have to see on those issues. Cam Newton has an arm no doubt. His accuracy can be a little shaky and he threw two picks against Clemson. But at the same time he can make big time throws like a couple to Darvin Adams and an 80-yarder to Terrell Zachery. Auburn was great in the red zone against Clemson in the second half last week. But South Carolina has a stouter defense.
I would love to pick the Tigers with the home crowd, but I like the SC personnel better. Lattimore will run hard and Garcia should do enough. And Ellis Johnson (Defensive Coordinator of SC) will have the South Carolina defense dialed up to stop Newton from throwing downfield and should neutralize the AU running game. Johnson is one of the best around, and he’ll have a great game plan for the Tigers.
This should be a war and more of a defensive contest, similar to the MS. State game. AU had a war last week against Clemson, and I just don’t see them pulling this one out this week. South Carolina comes out of Auburn with the victory.
South Carolina 17, Auburn 14
UAB @ Tennessee 11:21 a.m., SEC Network: Blazers got a huge day from Bryan Ellis last week as he led them to the 34-33 victory over Troy with a last second 44-yard touchdown pass to frosh Jackie Williams. He threw for three tds and close to 400 yards. He’s emerged as a quarterback. The question here is UAB’s defense. Can they stop anyone? Tennessee will throw rb Tauren Poole (50-295, 5.9 avg. 3 tds) and qb Matt Simms and an improving Tennessee passing game at the Blazers’ defense. Think the SEC might be too much for the Blazers to handle and though they may make it interesting, the Vols have too much for them. UAB still could be a pretty good team this year if they shore up their defense. I’ve listened to Neal Calloway and I’m just not sure the guy is that great a motivator.
UT 38, UAB 24
Kentucky @ No.9 Florida 6 p.m., ESPNU:Florida’s offense does not have it yet. Florida fans say this offense is going to get it together soon, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. John Brantley has not lived up to the hype yet and the playmakers haven’t materialized. Kentucky is playing great offensive football right now with standouts Randall Cobb and Derrick Locke, two of the most exciting players in the conference if not the country. Mike Hartline is doing a great job at qb for the Wildcats. As much as I’d like to see it happen, I don’t think Ky can beat Fl at the Swamp. Florida has 10 interceptions on the season to lead the nation. Ahmad Black leads the conference with three and Janoris Jenkins is tied with eight other guys for second with two. Hartline hasn’t thrown a pick, but he hasn’t played any great competition. Look for Florida to just get by the Wildcats in somewhat of an ugly game. That’s the way the Gators have played for the last two years on offense.
Florida 28, Kentucky 24
Georgia @ Miss State 6 p.m., Fox Sports South, ESPN Game Plan:Georgia kind of reeling after a heartbreaking loss to Arkansas at home last week. Mark Richt needs to right the ship this year and get UGA somewhere in the vicinity of eight wins or the natives are going to get very restless. Dan Mullen just can’t get good enough play out of his quarterbacks and the running game is non-existent. Georgia and Aaron Murray will do enough to win this game.
Georgia 21, Ms. State 14
Fresno State @ Ole Miss 6:30 p.m., CSS and ESPN Game Plan: Ole Miss is paying the price for taking Jeremiah Masoli after he had been kicked off the Oregon team. It’s poetic justice really. Vandy dominated the Rebels on the line of scrimmage last week. Fresno State is a pretty good football team who, according to their coach Pat Hill, will play “any team, anywhere, any time.” They’ve played in some big games and have already beaten Cincinnati at home, 28-14, and Utah State on the road, 41-24. That’s the same Utah State which only lost by a touchdown to Oklahoma at Norman. I like Fresno to pull off the upset here.
Fresno State 31, Ole Miss 28
No.22 West Virginia @ No. 15 LSU 8 p.m. ESPN2: LSU played a better game last week against Ms. State, but this is a pretty decent West Virginia team. Noel Devine is a stellar running back, but LSU’s defense is playing at a high level. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is a tremendous player and lb Kelvin Sheppard is as well. LSU does enough offensively and defensively against West Virginia in a tough one to keep the Bayou Bengals undefeated.
LSU 28, West Virginia 24
Other scores:
Georgia Tech 31, North Carolina State 28
No.7 Texas 28, UCLA 24
Florida State 42, Wake Forest 28
Rutgers 28, UNC 27
No.3 Boise State 42, No. 24 Oregon State 31
No.16 Stanford 35, Notre Dame 31
Temple 24, No.23 Penn State 21
Nevada 42, Brigham Young 28
(Mark Ingram and Tide should have their way offensively against Ark defense.)