Armed Forces Bowl; preview and prediction

Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds could very well be the difference in the Armed Forces Bowl
I will have the other three bowls today in a later blog that will come out at around 11 AM.

Here’s a look at the first bowl of the day, an interesting one:

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Navy Midshipmen (8-4) vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue

Raiders(8-4)

Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas (50,000)

11:45 AM ET/10:45 CT

ESPN

Broadcasters: Beth Mowins, Joey Galloway and Paul Carcaterra

Whistles: Mid American Conference (MAC): Mark Kluczynski, lead ref

Surface: Grass

Coaches: Navy: Ken Niumatalolo, 6th year: 48-30; MTSU: Rick Stockstill, eighth year: 51-48

Bowl records: Navy: 7-10-1; MTSU: 1-2

Weather: Sunny, 36 @ kickoff, 0% chance of rain, wind, NW @4 MPH

Line: Navy by 6 1/2

Navy is led on the ground and through the air, though not as prominently as on the ground, by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who’s from Antioch, Tennessee. Reynolds is 5’11”, 185, but is very quick and has run for 29 touchdowns this season; which is  second in the country behind Colorado State’s Kapri Bibbs, who finished his season with 31 in his and his team’s victory over Washington State in the New Mexico Bowl. Reynolds ran for 1,260 yards, and while he didn’t throw it a lot, he was OK in the passing game, completing 65-of-121 passes (54%) for 1,038 yards, eight TDs and two interceptions. Reynolds set an NCAA record for rushing touchdowns in a single game with seven against San Jose State in the Midshipmen’s 58-52 triple overtime victory. He also ran for 240 yards in that game. His 29 rushing TDs broke the single season marks for touchdown runs by quarterbacks set by Navy’s Ricky Dobbs and K-State’s Collin Klein, both of whom had 27. MTSU will have their work cut out stopping Reynolds. The Midshipmen don’t  rely on a lot of other guys in the ground game. Running back Chris Swain rushed for 398 yards and four TDs. Their leading receiver for TDs is Matt Aiken who pulled in only two. Casey Bolena led Navy with 13 receptions for 164 yards but 0 TDs.

On defense, inside linebacker Cody Peterson (senior, 6’3″, 228) leads the team in tackles with 135, which is tied for fifth in the country. He also had 5 1/2 tackles for loss and a sack. The other inside backer, DJ Sargenti (6’1″, 216), posted 103 tackles and six for loss of -20. Star linebacker Chris Johnson had 78 tackles and was tied for the team lead in interceptions with three along with free safety Parrish Gaines and freshman cornerback Brendon Clements.

Navy averages 34.3 points per game and gives up 25.9.

For Middle Tennessee State, senior quarterback Logan Kilgore (6’3″, 206) has completed 197-of-322 passes (61.2%) for 2,289 yards, 16 TDs and 11 ints. His leading receiver is senior Tavarres Jefferson (5’9″, 206) who has caught 41 passes for 532 yards and five TDs. Senior wide out Kyle Griswould has caught 36 passes for 359 yards and four TDs. The Blue Raiders leading rushers are Jordan Parker (6’1″, 220 sophomore) who has 741 yards on 145 carries (5.1 yards per carry) and six TDs, and junior Reggie Whaley (5’7″, 171), who has 631 yards on 93 carries (6.8) and three TDs. If Whaley  he gets some daylight in the open field he has a chance to house it. The Blue Raiders leading tackler is sophomore linebacker T.T. Barber (6’1″, 215) who has 112 stops on the season with 10.5 for loss of -41 yards. Safety Kevin Byard is next with 92 tackles and five interceptions, two he’s returned for touchdowns. Barber and linebacker Stephen Roberts also have interception returns for TDs. Roberts (senior, 6’3″,236)  has 60 tackles, four for loss.

The Blue Raiders are averaging 30.9 points per game and giving up 26.4. They’ve allowed 125 yards rushing per game.

Final Analysis:

This should be a very good game with two pretty potent offenses and a prolific player in Reynolds. The Blue Raiders can score some points and they have some 300 pounders on their offensive line and some pretty big guys up front on defense, so Navy will be at a disadvantage in size, but they usually are. I like this to be a high scoring game and for Reynolds to get the job done at the end and the Naval Academy to squeak this one out over a pretty good Blue Raiders team. It’s been a good season for both teams. Both coaches doing stellar jobs at places where it’s not easy to win eight in the regular season.

Navy 37, Middle Tennessee State 35

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