Auburn goes to State in a colossal showdown in the SEC West with potential SEC title hopes on the line. There’s a lot of football left after this Saturday, but this would be a critical win for the program that gets the job done in Starkville. Alabama with another road test, this time in Fayetteville against a much improved Arkansas Razorbacks team that features an electric running game streamlined by a powerful, athletic offensive line and a dynamic pair of running backs. Both AU and Bama are in extremely hostile environments, so winning at Davis Wade Stadium and Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium respectively would be huge momentum builders for both programs. Huge game in College Station as well as the Ole Miss Rebels, fresh off a victory over the Crimson Tide, faces a Texas A&M team that got crushed by State on the road last Saturday and seeking some redemption. The question is, will Ole Miss be able to refocus after maybe its biggest victory in program history? Georgia @ Missouri is kind of under the radar, but a key game in the SEC East with both teams fighting it out for a spot from the East in the SEC Championship game in Atlanta on December 6 in the Georgia Dome. LSU @ Florida in maybe not as much of a marquee of a game as it usually is, but it will still be interesting to see if the Hat and company can rebound after the embarrassment at Auburn last Saturday, and if Florida can recover from the off field incident involving their freshman quarterback is being investigated on an assault charge on Sunday. The quarterback, Treon Harris, was suspended indefinitely by Coach Will Muschamp, so the struggling Jeff Driskel will get the start. Could be an offensive struggle down in the Swamp as LSU’s quarterbacks have not been too swift either. Some pretty interesting games nationally as well. Here’s a look at this week’s action.
Last week: 6-9; upset city got the best of me,
though I did all right against the
spread going 9-6.
Overall: 53-25 (68%)
No.2 Auburn (5-0, 2-0 SEC) @ No.3 Mississippi State (5-0, 2-0)
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi (55,082)
2:30 PM CT/3:30 PM ET
CBS
Verne, Gary, Allie
40% chance of scattered T-storms, wind SW 6 MPH
LIne: AU by 3
An epic with Nick Marshall and Dak Prescott and their teams battling for temporary supremacy (along with Ole Miss) in the SEC west. Prescott, one of the leaders for the Heisman Trophy along with Georgia’s Todd Gurley, has been terrific this year for the Bulldogs completing 78-of-122 passes (64%) for 1,232 yards, with 13 touchdowns against two interceptions. Dak is also the emotional leader of his team. Prescott has also rushed for 455 yards and six TDs. Nick Marshall, after getting off to a somewhat slow start, had a huge game last week against LSU, completing 14-of-22 passes for 207 yards and two TDs and rushing for 126 yards on 16 carries (7.4 per rush) and two, sevens. For the year, Nick is 55-of-95 (58%) for 755 yards, eight TDs and one int. He has also rushed for 392 yards and four TDs. I’d say the quarterbacks are both excellent and about a wash, though I might give a slight edge to Prescott. Auburn’s running game is led by the hard-nosed Cameron Artis-Payne, who has rushed for 594 yards and five TDs. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per pop. Corey Grant has added 245 and two TDs, but hasn’t had the house calls he usually has for the Tigers. Saturday would be a good day for Corey to take one or two to the house. State’s leading rusher is Josh Robinson, who has 592 on the ground of the season with six TDs. Robinson averages 7.5 yards per carry. He’s outstanding. I’d give State a slight edge here too because of Robinson and Prescott. But a very slight edge. Both teams can really pound it on the ground. On the perimeter, I’d give Auburn the advantage with Sammie Coates (9-200, 1 TD) and Duke Williams (25-385, 3 TDs), the best one-two receiving punch in the country. State has some very good receivers too, in Jameon Lewis (15-223, 1 TD) and the big, powerful Da’Runnya Wilson (14-247, 5 TDs). Wilson is 6’5″, 225, so cornerbacks Jonathan Jones and Jonathan Mincy will be on high alert. Lewis was hurt last week, but is probable for the game, and he is an explosive playmaker the Tigers entire defense will have to account for. ***Update- Lewis is out***
Coates is listed at 6’2″, 201, but he looks more like 6’4″ to me. Williams is listed at 6’2″, 216, but he looks bigger. Mainly though, they’re excellent receivers who are game changers in the passing game; more explosive than the State receivers are. Edge AU. The offensive lines are close, but I’d give the edge to AU again here. Reese Dismukes is such a leader and the guys around him are extremely physical and athletic. State’s got a good line too, but like the Tigers a little better because of their leadership with Dismukes and guard Chad Slade.
On defense, I’d give State a slight edge. Linebacker Bernardrick McKinney leads the team with 36 tackles and six tackles for loss of -22 along with three sacks. Defensive end Preston Smith leads the team in sacks with 3.5. The defense has combined for 18 sacks this season, which is 13th in the country. Utah leads the nation with 28. The defense also has nine interceptions on the season; tied for fourth nationally. They are led by linebacker Richie Brown, who has three ints, with all of them coming against A&M last Saturday. But the key stat to me is scoring defense. Auburn is eighth nationally at 14.4 and State is 22nd at 19.4. AU’s defense looked really good last week, but it was against what looked like a pathetic offense in LSU with a freshman quarterback who was clueless in Jordan-Hare Stadium on a Saturday night. But even though AU has an edge in scoring defense, I would say State has a slight edge overall. They just look a little better to me, though it’ pretty close. Like AU in the kicking game. Auburn’s Quan Bray could take it the distance on a punt which could be a game changer in this one.
So this will be a spectacular matchup against two of the best teams in the country. The last edge I’m giving, and to me it puts this respective team over the top, is Gus Malzahn and his coaching staff over Dan Mullen and his. With everything else so close, I’m going with Auburn due to the Gus factor. The guy is so good in big games. Gus, Nick and the Tigers he gets the job done again this Saturday in a classic.
Auburn 28, State 24
No.7 Alabama (4-1, 1-1) @ Arkansas (3-2, 0-2)
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas (72,000)
6 PM CT/7 PM ET
ESPN
Tess, Brock, Shannon
80% chance of T-storms, 60 degrees, wind, NE 9
Line: Bama by 10
Pretty much a must win for the Crimson Tide to stay in the hunt for the SEC west crown. Maybe not as prolific a game as AU-State, but very important to the teams involved. Alabama has some injury issues as they lost stellar running back Kenyan Drake and, even more importantly, center Ryan Kelly, to injuries. Drake is out for the year with a broken leg and Kelly is out for a couple of weeks with a sprained knee. Also, on defense, Denzel Deval is out for a while with a high ankle sprain. So T.J. Yeldon, Derrick Henry and possibly Altee Tenpenny will have to step it up at running back for the Tide. Tyren Jones is questionable for the game. An even bigger concern is at center where redshirt freshman Bradley Bozeman will get the call. Right tackle Austin Shepherd told Bozeman earlier this week that he probably shouldn’t leave the football facility at all this week in preparation for this game. Perhaps the professors came to S’s or o line coach Mario Cristobal’s office for private classes. Bozeman will really be tested on Saturday. And the defense is going to have to figure out a way to stop the explosive rushing attack of the Razorbacks. Alex Collins has run for 621 yards and six TDs, and Jonathan Williams has accounted for 486 and eight TDs. The line is massive and highly athletic. Quarterback Brandon Allen is good in the play action passing game. He’s completed 58-of-97 passes (60%) for 751 yards, nine TDs and one int.
Blake Sims is completing 70% of his passes (90-of-128) for 1,319 yards, eight TDs and three ints. Blake doesn’t need to turn the ball over on Saturday, though it might be tough to protect the football if it’s raining. This may be a ground and pound game for both sides. Yeldon and Henry and possibly Tenpenny, who is an Arkansas native, need to get the job done for the Crimson Tide to win and Bozeman’s play will be critical as well. The veteran linemen will need to help the young freshman out. And the defense will have to figure out ways to stop Collins and Williams. Kirby and S will most likely load up the box and make Arkansas get it done through the air. Actually, the Hogs will probably do the same thing on defense.
With the weather the way it is expected to be, I’m looking at a lower scoring contest here. The Crimson Tide will get out of Fayetteville with a hard fought victory.
Bama 21, Arkansas 14
No.3 Ole Miss (5-0, 2-0) @ No.14 Texas A&M (5-1, 2-1)
Kyle Field, College Station, Texas (83,002)
8 PM CT/ 9 PM ET
ESPN
Chris, Herbie, Heather Cox
75; 60% scattered T-storms
A&M by 2-2 1/2
I like Bo Wallace and the Rebels to keep the momentum going this week. I’m a believer in the Rebels defense and I think the”Land Sharks” and enough Ole Miss offense get it done in what could be a rainy night.
Ole Miss 28, A&M 24
No.13 Georgia (4-1, 2-1) @ No. 23 Missouri (4-1, 1-0)
Faurot Field, Columbia, Missouri (71,168)
11 AM CT/ Noon ET
CBS
57 mostly cloudy, wind, ENE 10 MPH
Georgia by 3
Todd Gurley has rushed for 773 yards on the season, averaging 8.2 yards per carry with eight TDs. He’ll be the difference in Columbia in what should be an excellent football game.
***Just in: Gurley has just been suspended indefinitely for an NCAA violation– allegedly for signing jerseys maybe for cash–by Coach Mark Richt, so freshman Nick Chubb will be getting the bulk of the carries. Keith Marshall hurt his leg against Troy three weeks ago, so he’s out. Freshman Sony Michel, another five-star stud, is banged up with a shoulder injury, so Chubb and whomever they can come up with will have to carry the load. Still going with the Dawgs, but it’s a lot more of a precarious prediction now. Brendan Douglas will be Chubb’s backup.
Georgia 31, Missouri 28
Other scores:
LSU 21, Florida 17
Kentucky 38, La Monroe 14
Tennessee 27, Chattanooga 17
No.5 Baylor 28, No. 9 TCU 24
No.1 FSU 45, Syracuse 17
Clemson 34, Louisville 24
Oklahoma 28, Texas 14
Northwestern 31, Minnesota 28
Penn State 28, Michigan 24
Vanderbilt 17, Charleston Southern 7
UCLA 35, Oregon 34
Arizona 31, USC 30
California 35, Washington 28
Washington State 31, Stanford 28 (Friday, 8
PM CT on ESPN)
UCF 30, BYU 24 (tonight on ESPN @ 6:30 CT)
Tonight in the NFL:
Texans 31, Indy 30
CBS/NFL Network @7:25 PM CT/8:25 PM ET
***Oh, yeah, and by the way:
ALCS: On WTBS, Game 1 Friday @ 8:07 PM ET/7:07 CT
Orioles over Royals in 6
NLCS: On FOX and Fox Sports 1, Game 1, Saturday,
8:07 PM ET/7:07 CT on Fox
Cardinals over Giants in 7