“The Game”

This is a huge week for college football with rivalries galore, teams trying to stay atop the BCS standings and other teams trying to play the spoiler.
It doesn’t get any bigger than Friday at 1:30 in Tuscaloosa at Bryant-Denny Stadium. One hundred and two thousand rabid fans will be urging their team to either stay in the national championship race or spoil a perfect season and beat their hated rival. Alabama is a four point favorite. Would think it might even be closer than that, but we’ll see how the week shakes out in Vegas.

Alabama has played a lot better football the past two weeks with a 3o-10 victory over Miss State followed by a 63-7 trouncing of Georgia State. The second opponent was not much, but I like what Nick Saban has said about playing weak opponents: “It’s not who you play it’s how you play.” ‘Bama certainly looked good and has momentum heading into this war. A couple of key players who have been hurt, and I mean key for this game, Trent Richardson and Barrett Jones, are probably going to play. Richardson is practicing so he should be ready. Jones is a little more questionable with a high ankle sprain. But he’s a tough kid so I think he’ll be in there. Both players are very important to the Tide’s success. Jones needs to be in there to either block or help block the dominating Nick Fairley.

I met Greg McElroy Saturday. He was eating lunch at Tazikis where I was eating with my daughter. He was in town for the Rhodes Scholarship interviews. He didn’t get selected but I was very impressed with Greg. Sharp guy, clean cut and a pretty stout boy. He’s 6’3″ and he looks to be about 215 to 220. He is solid. He gave my daughter an autograph with a “Roll Tide, Greg McElroy number 12.” I told him I wanted to interview him for the blog and he said I would have to get in touch with the media relations department which I immediately did afterwards. I’ll try to land an interview with Greg. Can’t guarantee it because these I’ve been working with Alabama media relation, so we’ll see.

Mark Ingram looks like he has it back together and is running with the passion he had last year. Trent would be a huge addition to the running game and passing game out of the backfield. Julio Jones is playing at an All-American, top six draft pick level. Marquis Maze is right behind him. Darius Hanks and Preston Dial are very good options as well for McElroy.

The defense looked pretty solid in the last two games. Guys like DeMarcus Milliner and Dre Kirkpatrick have really picked up how to play the secondary. Robert Lester has been awesome and Mark Barron is a total winner. Linebacking corps is emerging with C.J. Mosley looking Ro McClain-like. Dont’a Hightower is playing at a pretty good level now and Courtney Upshaw is playing decent. All three are highly talented and Chris Jordan has emerged as a player. Like Jerrell Harris and Nico Johnson, too. The line is doing better. Josh Chapman is playing better. Luther Davis is playing pretty well. Need to get pressure on Cam no doubt, if the Tide wants to slow him down and they need to tackle him once they get there. I know that’s pretty basic, but fundamentals win football games.

The things Nick Saban believes his defense needs to do better are recover fumbles and get a pass rush on Cam. Can you contain Cam? I’m not sure that is possible, but putting pressure on him is a step in the right direction.

For Auburn, it’s about the high scoring offense for sure, but in this game, the defense is going to have to make some plays. Alabama’s offense looks like it’s gotten itself together, so AU will have to stop the run, tackle well and get pressure on McElroy. There will be pressure on Zac Etheridge and his teammates in the secondary, so the more pass rush Fairley, Antoine Carter and company can put on McElroy the better for Auburn. Josh Bynes needs to show his leadership abilities both in his play and vocally.

What about Cam? Nothing has emerged in the past couple of days in the investigation, so I think, and that is think, that he’ll be OK to play against Alabama. If he does, that gives AU a great chance. He’ll use his amazing running and passing ability to try and sink the Tide defense. His weapons around him are as solid as any in the country. Onterio McCalebb can break it any time and Michael Dyer, though I wouldn’t say he’s extremely fast like McCalebb, or as powerful as Marcus Lattimore, is a fine running back. I don’t know if you can risk using Mario Fannin because of his fumbling problems. He brings some explosiveness to the offense, but can you take a chance on him when you’re driving for a score or starting a drive deep in your own territory? Auburn needs to give the other backs a rest, but they need to be pretty judicious in their use of Fannin. Newton’s targets through the air will be a factor as always. Darvin Adams, T-Zac, who could be a factor on those reverses, Emory Blake, who has emerged as a big time playmaker, and Phillip Lutzenkirchen, who has become a scoring weapon for the Tigers, are all key in the offenses’ success.

I give Auburn the edge on the offensive line over Alabama. Those guys look like the best in the country.

The kick return games are fairly even though I’d give AU the edge on kickoff returns because of Demond Washington and the fact that Richardson has been a little hurt. Also, ‘Bama allowed Georgia State to return a kick 100 yards for a score. There is a lot of talent on the kickoff team for Alabama, but they need to be careful with Demond. He’s capable of breaking it any time. Julio may be returning kicks for Tide. I like Marquis Maze in the punt return game. He’s returned two punts for tds that have been called back. He’s an incredible weapon.

Field goals and PAT’s I’d give a little edge to the Auburn veteran Wes Byrum over Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster. Ryan Shoemaker has struggled for Auburn and I just don’t remember that many punts by Cody Mandell. I know Auburn fans have complained about their punting and I haven’t heard any complaints from Alabama fans, so I give the edge to ‘Bama.

Turnovers of course will play a role. Cam can fumble every now and then. Alabama protects the ball pretty well though Trent had a couple of fumbles against LSU, and if Eddie Lacey plays, he’s a threat to drop it. Ingram doesn’t fumble, but Auburn will be working hard to strip the ball, so fumbles could be a factor. The Tide is pretty ball hawking in the secondary, but Cam is pretty darn accurate, so that’ll be interesting. McElroy doesn’t throw many ints, so that’s almost a wash between those two. Alabama has better defensive backs.

Which defense can play better and stop the opponent’s offense is the team that is going to win this game. Can either defense stop the opposing offenses? I don’t know if they can. Alabama’s defense is playing better right now. I give them the edge though Fairley could dominate.

Alabama is at home and they’ve got a little better defense. Defense may not matter in this one as it could be a shootout, but it could also be a lower scoring game than some would think. Whenever I think a game is going to be a shootout, it ends up being lower scoring. I’m going with a lower scoring game and the Tide, Greg McElroy and Julio Jones and a late field goal ruining Auburn’s dream of going to Glendale on Jan. 10.

Alabama 24, Auburn 21.

Please give me your analysis and prediction in the comments section. They are welcome!

(Julio will be the man in this one.)