TPC Sawgrass-Stadium Course, Ponte Vedra, Florida (Designer: Pete Dye)
7,215 yards, Par 72
Purse: $10,000,000; Winner’s share: $1,700,000
Fed Ex points: 600
First winner: Jack Nicklaus (1974, Atlanta Country Club, called the Tournament Players Championship)
Defending champion: Eldrick Woods (-13): out this year with micro-whatever surgery on a pinched nerve in his back
Key groups tomorrow: 8:18 AM ET/7:18 CT: Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Graeme McDowell; 8:29 AM ET: Harris English, Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy; 8:39 AM ET: Dustin Johnson, Phil, Sergio; 1:18 PM ET: Webb Simpson, Jonas Blixt, Keegan Bradley; 1:39 PM ET: Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Steve Stricker; 1:49 ET: Matt Kuchar, Bubba, Jimmy Walker.
Weather: Thursday: High 85, sunny, 0% rain, wind SSE @ 12 MPH; Friday: 85, partly cloudy, 0 rain, wind, SE 12 MPH; Saturday: 82, 0 rain, wind, SSE 12 MPH; Sunday: 82, 30% isolated T-storms, wind, SE 10 MPH.
TV: Thursday-Friday: 1-7 PM ET/12-6 CT on Golf Channel; Saturday-Sunday: Noon-2 PM ET/11AM-1 PM CT on Golf; 2-7 PM ET/1-6 CT on NBC.
Key holes:
Nos. 1 and 2:
No.1 is a 423 slight dogleg right par 4 that requires an accurate tee shot with drives favoring the right side of the fairway giving a better angle to the green.The tee shot is tight, like out of a tight chute with water and a bunker on the right and trees lining the left side of the fairway. There is a large bunker and smaller bunker guarding the front left side of the green. The green is long but narrow. Pretty precise play leads to a solid par, and a good drive and second shot could lead to a birdie, but it’s a demanding first hole. No.2 is a 532 yard Par-5 and can certainly be reached in two though there is trouble if you don’t draw it from right to left as there is water and a long bunker on the right. The green is triangular and is pretty narrow, so accuracy is required on the second shot. Shorter hitters may make it a three shot hole and play for birdie. While the first hole favors a left to right drive, the second is the opposite favoring a right to left drive.
No.5
A 471 yard par 4, this is the hardest hole on the front nine. This hole is a dogleg right where favoring the right side of the fairway–even going into the bunker on the right–often makes for an easier approach.The green is a mixture of waste bunkers and traditional sand traps along with a lot of mounds all surrounded by palm trees. Many hole locations are best navigated from the left side of the putting surface.
No.8
A par-3, 237 yards, this hole is surrounded by bunkers, 11 of them, and some are barely large enough for a player to take a stance. The putting surface is narrow with several slopes in it. Although not the make-or-break test like the 17th, this hole can cause some problems for the players who don’t hit a good tee shot.
No.14
A Par-4, 481 yards, this is the second most difficult hole on the course. There are mounds on the right side landing area if you’re a little off the fairway and there is a very long waste bunker on the left. A left to right drive is required on this hole. It’s the second toughest driving hole on the course. The green is huge and has plenty of slope on it. There is sand and trees surrounding the green. Could be a key hole on Sunday with the tournament in the balance. A bad hole here could be the start of a demise of the player’s chances of winning.
No.16
A Par-5, 523 yards and the start of three of the most exciting holes in golf. The drive must be right to left to avoid trees on the right. Most players go for this green in two though some may choose to lay up. If you hit it right on your second shot, you’re wet. If you hit if left you have a large tree and a very difficult up and down for birdie on the left side of the green. There is a large, hanging tree on the left that could cause some problems. Players can chip it into the water with a right side pin placement on Sunday. I’ve seen it and it can be costly.
No.17
The classic island hole. Many championships have been lost on this hole. Sergio did it last year on this hole as he was tied with Tiger, who was on 18 tee and watching, as Garcia plunked two balls in the water and finished tied for eighth. Tiger proceeded to rip a right to left stinger off the tee on 18 and finish 17 and 18 par, par as Sergio suffered a triple on 17. Sergio did win here in a playoff over Paul Goydos with a classic shot on 17 to six feet in 2008. It’s a treacherous hole despite only measuring 137 yards. Wind is a huge factor and it’ll be blowing 10-12 on Sunday from the South, so it should be behind the players making club selection critical. A 54 or 56 degree sand wedge may be the club for the longer guys, a pitching wedge for the shorter guys and some guys may use a 52 degree gap wedge.
No.18
While 17 gets all the publicity, this hole is the hardest hole on the course and key to winning the tournament just as much as 17 is. The drive is tremendously challenging. There is water running all the way off the left side of the fairway. If you hook it, you’re in the drink. There are trees on the right that cause major problems if you hit it too far right. Some players may be bold and cut it left to right to hit the middle of the fairway, though that’s risky. I loved Tiger’s drive here last year. He hit a three wood with a low draw stinger on it. The pressure had let up as Sergio was gagging on 17, so it wasn’t as tough as it could have been, but that was the ideal shot for this finishing hole. The second shot still has water in play on the left side and there is sand and rough on the right that can cause problems as well. Getting off 18 with a par is a good score. If you have the lead by a shot and you’re in the last group, you par, you win. Getting out of here with par is very good. If you’re not in the lead on Sunday, you’ll need to be more aggressive.
Guys who will contend for the title:
Harris English
This 24 year old Georgia Dawg, is third on the tour in greens in regulation. That’s an extremely important stat on this course. He won in November at the OHL Classic in Mexico, which is a tour event, and three weeks later at the Franklin Templeton Shootout in Naples, Florida playing with Matt Kuchar. He’s a stud and I like his Dawg toughness. English will be right there with a chance to win on Sunday.
Jordan Spieth
He is so close to breaking through and this 20-year old phenom may do it this week. He is 23rd in stroked gained putting on the tour which is the most critical stat in golf in my opinion. He does everything well. Like his toughness very much as well. He’s going to get a major, and this “fifth major” could be the one to get him jumpstarted on what should be a stellar career.
Graeme McDowell
Hasn’t won this year and didn’t make the cut last year here, but his stats are terrific. He’s 15th on the tour in driving accuracy, tied for 14th in proximity to the hole and second on the tour in strokes gained putting. If he can keep it together on Sunday and bring back that U.S. Open fortitude he had in 2010 where he won at Pebble Beach, this could be the 34-year old former UAB player’s week.
Angel Cabrera:
He always performs well in majors. He’s just built for majors. Drives it extremely well and when his putter is on, he’s lights out. If the 44-year old Angel can be accurate off the tee, he’s got a good shot.
The winner:
This young guy finished tied for second with Jeff Maggert and David Lingmerth last year in this event. He finished -11, two back of Eldrick. He shot 67 on Sunday last year. He finished tied 14th last week at the Wells Fargo. He’s trending well. He’s 21st in driving accuracy, but doesn’t blow you away with his stats. I just like his trends coming into this week. I picked him last week to win and I’m going to do it again.The 35-year old Duke graduate is my pick to win again this week.
Kevin Streelman