Valhalla Golf Club
Jack Nicklaus design,

hosted PGA in 1996 won by Mark Brooks and 2000 won by Tiger Woods)

7,458 yards, Par 72

defending champion: Duf

Key stat: Greens in regulation are critical this week because it’s really hard to get up and down at Valhalla. And, of course, you have to putt well.Driving distance with accuracy will also be critical.

Winner:

Rory:

I struggled with this because it’s almost too good to be true for him to win again. He’s a little arrogant right now, in my opinion, and that can cost you eventually, but you just can’t deny his colossal play. Rory is 10th on the tour in greens in regulation. He’s 37th in strokes gained putting, which is pretty good, but he can get on a hot streak and make everything in sight including all eight footers and in for par or birdie.

But I do have a another pick:

Sleeper pick:

J.B. Holmes:

A Kentucky native who dominated at the 2008 Ryder Cup at Valhalla where he won all three matches he played in and was part of a young, hungry team (Holmes, then  25, along with Anthony Kim, then 23, and Hunter Mahan, then 25) coached by Paul Azinger that beat the Euros for once. J.B. is mentally tough. His game is not on the same level as Rory or Adam Scott, but I do like his Tiger-like approach to the game. He’s overcome major brain surgery two years ago which was life threatening and could very well have ended his career, and battled back in an inspiring story. How he came back from serious brain surgery is enough to tall me that this guy can handle the pressure of a major. I really think J.B. can get this done if Rory doesn’t. He’s 169th in greens in regulation, but he won on a very long track at Quail Hollow (7,442 yards) in the Wells Fargo Championship this past May, so I think he can do the same thing here, despite his lack of proficiency in greens in reg. He was so good at the Ryder Cup in ’08 and with his home crowd in attendance, he’ll have a very solid showing with a shot at winning it.

Who’ not going to win:

 Tiger Woods-

That’s a 100 percent guarantee. That back injury looked bad last Sunday. How can he expect to come back from that and feel like he can win it? It looked to me like some sort of herniated or bulging disc flareup on the 9th  tee. I don’t know why he’s even considering this. He has no chance to win. Either he has a low threshold for pain if he comes back and can play (because it looked like he was really hurt), or he’s just got too much pride (some might call it arrogance) and thinks with treatment he can still win this major. That’s not going to happen. Will be pretty surprised if he plays.He’s going to have to reinvent his swing, so he can protect his body from breaking down and somehow be competitive again.

Baseball predictions:

With the trades at the trade deadline my predictions have changed somewhat.

ALCS:

A’s over Tigers in seven

NLCS:

Dodgers over Nationals

World Series:

A’s over Dodgers in seven

World champions:

Oakland A’s

Analysis:

The Tigers and A’s are so similar with their excellent starting pitching. The Tigers actually have better hitting, but the A’s play better defense. The clinching factor to me in picking the A’s over the Tigers is A’s manager Bob Melvin. He’s experienced with division titles as a manager with  the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2007 and the A’s last year.He’s just more experienced than Tigers manager Brad Ausmus, who is an impressive guy in his own right with a Dartmouth degree, and was a pretty good baseball career as a player. The pitching is a wash pretty much, but the A’s defense and enough hitting will get them over the top on the Tigers. On my Vandy blog, I picked the Tigers last week, but with the fluidity of baseball and some more thought, I like this A’s group. They’ve got that radical, charismatic, fun  personality that they had when they won three times in the 70’s with Reggie Jackson and that cast of characters. They won three in a row from 1972-74 (that’s outrageously good!), and they won again in 1989 with Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, who were both probably juiced up on steroids, but there was good personality on the team with some talented baseball players. And both teams of their eras had steady veteran managers. The 72-74 teams had the prickly, flamboyant Dick Williams. Williams, like his players, was an irreverent rebel, but a steady veteran who knew how to get the job done. In 1989, the A’s manager wasTony LaRussa, who won the first of three series titles in 1989 as A’ s head man. He won two more with St. Louis in 2006 and 2011.  Those guys were veterans and I like Melvin’s veteran leadership to be the difference.