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January 9, 2025

Notre Dame/Penn State, Texas/Ohio State, Semifinals of the College Football Playoff is here

The semifinals of the first 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off tonight at 6:30 as Notre Dame squares off with Penn State, while the second semifinal will commence Friday Night at 6:30 with Texas facing the Ohio State Buckeyes. Both games can be seen on ESPN.

 It’s a clash of four storied programs. Notre Dame reached the Orange Bowl semifinal by defeating Indiana in the first round at South Bend, 27-17, then dominating Georgia in the quarterfinals at the Sugar Bowl last Thursday, 23-10. Penn State qualified with dominating victories over SMU and Boise State (Fiesta Bowl), respectively.

 Ohio State dismantled Tennessee in the first round at Columbus, and then blasted No.1 seeded Oregon in the Rose Bowl; while Texas defeated Clemson and Arizona State (Chick-fil-A Bowl) to advance to the Cotton Bowl semifinal.

 Here are previews along with predictions for these classic semifinal games.

 Record

 Bowls, SU-14-9; ATS: 10-13

 Season: SU-166-64, 72%; ATS- 118-111, 52%.

 

Tonight

The Orange Bowl

 No.7 Notre Dame (13-1) vs. No.6 Penn State (13-2)

 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, 65,326

6:30 CT

 ESPN

 Sean, Gregory, Molly, Katie

 Yellow: Big 12, Michael “Russell” Vandervelde

 Fighting Irish by 1

 This is a clash of hard-nosed, physical football teams. Love what Marcus Freeman has done at Notre Dame and James Franklin has also been stellar at Penn State. Franklin has been more aggressive offensively this year and has pulled off some nice fake punt stuff. Freeman’s defense swarms to the football and lays the lumber. The Penn State defense is similar in that regard.

Notre Dame is led by quarterback Riley Leonard, who has completed 232-of-349 attempts, 67%, for 2,382 yards, 18 TDs versus 6 ints. Leonard is a Fairhope, Alabama native who played at Fairhope High School and is a first year transfer from Duke. He’s also rushed for 831 yards and 15, 7’s. Jeremiyah Love is the Irish’s workhorse at tailback. Love has rushed for 1,076 yards and 16 TDs. Jadarian Price is a stellar backup, who has rushed for 720 and 7. Beux Collins leads the team in receiving with 37 catches for 458 yards and 3 TDs. Their kick return game is excellent with Jayden Harrison averaging 27.4 yards per return, which included a 98 yard house call against Georgia to open the second half last Thursday.  Outside linebacker Jack Kiser leads the Irish in tackles with 75, while the Irish have 36 sacks on the season led by Rylie Mills, who’s posted 7 ½ for -59 yards. But Mills is out with a knee injury suffered against Indiana in the first round. Nose tackle Donovan Hinish is second on the team in sacks with 4 1/2. He and the other front seven guys will try and pick up the void left by Mills. Free safety Xavier Watts leads the defense with 6 interceptions and he’s taken one of them back to the house. The Irish have 18 interceptions on the season, including 5 for house calls. That’s pretty awesome.

The kicking game had been a bit of a struggle, but Mitch Jeter has settled down and had a nice postseason.

 For Penn State, junior quarterback Drew Allar is a veteran and has completed 250-of-371, 67%, for 3,192 yards, 24 TDs versus 7 ints. All world tight end Tyler Warren is Allar’s major target. Warren can defeat other teams single-handedly with his pass catching prowess. He has 98 receptions on the season for 1,158 yards and 8 TDs. The running game is stout as well. Kaytron Allen has rushed for 1,026 yards and 8 TDs, while Nicholas Singleton has 1,015 yards and 9 TDs. Allar has rushed for 6 TDs himself. Defensive end Abdul Carter is banged up and questionable for tonight, but if he plays, he’ll be a disruptive force to Leonard and company. Carter has posted 21 ½ sacks this season for -115 yards. Strong safety Jaylen Reed leads the team in tackles with 92, and is tied with outside linebacker Tony Rojas for the interception lead with 3 each.

 Both coaches are African American, one of whom will be the first African American coach to coach in a national championship game. When asked about it, both coaches gave thoughtful answers. Franklin said there were 6 black head coaches when he was offensive coordinator at Kansas State in 2007 under African American head coach Ron Prince. That was out of 120 FBS playing schools. Now there are 16 in 134 schools. He was very positive about it. Freeman said he was honored to be in this scenario, but he also said he really loves his mother too, who is from South Korea and is a Korean native. The point is, it doesn’t have to be an issue. Both coaches, along with Coach Sark and Coach Day, are excellent, and their accomplishments speak for themselves. It’s awesome that Franklin and Freeman are in the Final Four of this Playoff. It should keep getting better in that regard and hopefully it won’t be a topic in the foreseeable future. It’ll just be a natural thing that’s about performance, not anything else. It’s important to a lot of people, but I think people also want to just let it happen naturally and not talk about it.

 Final Analysis and Prediction

Wow, these two teams are close. Both coaches are exceptional motivators, both quarterbacks are intelligent and tough, the running games for both teams are stellar, and the defenses are stout. The Fighting Irish dominated Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and to me that separates them in this game. But not by much. Expecting a classic semifinal.

 

Notre Dame 24, Penn State 21

 

Friday

The Cotton Bowl

No. 8 Ohio State (12-2) vs. No. 5 Texas (13-2)

 AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX., 80,000

 6:30 PM CT

 ESPN

 Chris, Kirk, Holly, Laura

 Laundry: ACC, Jerry Magallanes

 Buckeyes by 6

The Buckeyes have been on fire throughout the postseason. Quarterback Will Howard has been terrific, and on the year has completed 268-of-369, 73%, for 3,490 yards, 32 TDs versus 9 ints. Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has looked like a man amongst boys out there. He has 70 receptions for 1,224 yards and 14 TDs, including 4 in the playoff. Emeka Egbuka has added 70 for 896 and 10 TDs. The running backs are prolific with TreVeyon Henderson having rushed for 925 and 10 TDs, and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins adding 924 and 10 TDs himself. The offense has been an unstoppable force in the Playoff. The O line had been having issues in the regular season, but has settled down and is now playing stellar. The defense is led by bookends JT Tulmoloau (right defensive end), who has posted 17 TFL’s for -94 yards and 10 sacks for -72 yards, and on the left side, Jack Sawyer has added 8 TFL’s for -59 along with 8 sacks. Middle linebacker Cody Simon leads the defense in tackles with 97. The great Caleb Downs, from the University of Alabama, has posted 71 tackles with 6 ½ for loss. He also has an int and a 79 yard punt return for a house call in the regular season versus Indiana.

 For the Longhorns, which gets to play a de facto home game with Arlington a three hour drive from Austin, the talented but sometimes erratic Quinn Ewers leads the offense at quarterback. Ewers has completed 270-of-406, 66%, for 3,189 yards, 29 TDs versus 11 ints. Last Wednesday, New Year’s Day, was a great example. After struggling for most of the Chick-fil-A quarterfinal bowl game against Arizona State, he completed a fourth and seven for a 7 to tie the game and send it into overtime, and threw two TDs in overtime. It can be a mixed bag with Ewers at times, but when he has time, he can be prolific. Quintrevion Wisner leads the Horns in rushing with 1,018 yards and 5 TDs. Jayden Blue has rushed for 714 and 8 TDs. They were both pretty quiet against Arizona State, but both are capable. Against the stellar Ohio State front, they’ll have to have some blocking to have success on the ground. Matthew Golden leads the Horns in receiving with 56 receptions for 936 and 9 TDs. Tight end Gunnar Helm is also a weapon. He has 58 receptions for 744 and 7 TDs. The great one from Alabama, Isaiah Bond, added 33 receptions for 512 and 5, 7’s. Bond has been banged up lately, so it’ll be interesting to see how effective he is against Ohio State. Defensively, middle linebacker Anthony Hill leads the team with 107 tackles, 16 TFLs and 7 ½ sacks. Linebacker David Gbenda and cornerback Jahdae Barron lead the D with 5 ints apiece. The Longhorns have 21 interceptions on the season; tied for second in the country with San Jose State They both finished one int behind BYU (22).

 

Final Analysis and Prediction

 This is a home game for Texas for the most part and that means a lot. But I don’t see the Longhorns doing enough to stop Will Howard and the elite Jeremiah Smith. It’s amazing Smith is a freshman. He’s 6’3”, 215. As coaches like to say, he’s no longer a freshman anymore. He’s been through a ton of battles, and is now a seasoned veteran heading into this Cotton Bowl matchup with Texas. Give me that twosome, the Buckeyes running game and their elite defensive ends, Tulmoloau and Sawyer, to cause havoc for Ewers and help the Buckeyes advance to the National Championship Game on Monday, January 20th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (sorry wrote Caesars Superdome in N’Awlins on Thursday-Super Bowl LIX (59) there instead) at 6:30 PM CT on ESPN to face off with the Fighting Irish. The Texas defense and the home crowd will be factors in this game, particularly the Longhorns secondary, but I like Howard to do enough with his outstanding offensive arsenal around him.

 Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Saturday: NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Games Previews/Predictions

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