We’re now down to cases as the great Ernie Johnson, Sr., the Braves former player and prolific broadcaster, used to say. It’s week 12, and there is very little margin for error with teams that have their sights set on the College Football Playoff. It’s such an interesting race for Sunday, December 3rd when the final field will be announced on ESPN starting at 11 AM CT. There are eight legitimate teams that can make the playoff: No.1 Georgia, No.2 Ohio State, No.3 Michigan, No.4 Florida State, No.5 Washington, No.6 Oregon, No.7 Texas, and No.8 Alabama. No.9 Missouri has two losses, so that won’t cut it with how well the teams ahead of them are playing and the Tigers’ losses to Georgia and LSU. No. 10 Louisville is not completely out of the picture, but it’s a real long shot.

And there are challenges this Saturday for a few of those teams that could determine the trajectory towards the Playoff.

It’s mid November, a spectacular time in college football, so let’s dive right into Week 12.

Last Week, SU: 16-4, Overall, 158-39, 80%.

ATS: 7-13, 91-102, 47%

Not what we’re looking for ATS, but hope and preparation springs eternal. Straight up looks solid.

All times Central and all games Saturday.

Chattanooga (7-3) @ No. 8 Alabama (9-1)

Bryant-Denny

11 AM

ESPN+/ SECN+

John Schriffen, Rocky Boiman, Dawn Davenport

Crimson Tide by 44 1/2

The Tide is making a late run at the playoff, and if they win out, I like their chances. That means defeating the Auburn Tigers @ Jordan-Hare and taking down dem Dawgs in the SEC Championship Game. That’s hard. The Bama-AU game will be at 2:30 PM Saturday, Nov.25th at 2:30 PM on CBS. The Georgia game will be Saturday, Dec, 2nd at 3 PM on CBS. If the Crimson Tide can clear those major hurdles they would earn themselves a spot in the Playoff. S would get upset with me for overlooking Chattanooga, but I’m overlooking Chattanooga.

Alabama 51, Chattanooga 3

New Mexico State (8-3) @ Auburn (6-4)

Jordan-Hare

3 PM

SEC Network

Dave, Derek, Taylor Davis

Tigers by 24

Hugh has his Tigers playing good football now as you would expect from him. There’s never been any question about his coaching ability. The 48-10 victory @Arkansas was impressive. Now he wants to take care of business Saturday and get his team ready for the Crimson Tide.

Auburn 42, New Mexico State 10

No.1 Georgia (10-0, 7-0) @ Tennessee (7-3, 3-3)

Neyland Stadium

2:30 PM

CBS

Brad, Gary, Jenny

Dawgs by 10

Kirby has his Dawgs playing at a very high level now after they shellacked Ole Miss last Saturday Night at Sanford Stadium in Athens, 52-17. Brock Bowers is back, Carson Beck and Ladd McConkey are awesome, and running backs Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards are excelling. The defense is getting better. Tennessee may have mailed it in. If they haven’t, Georgia may force them to throw the towel into the ring.

Georgia 35, Tennessee 14

Florida (5-5, 3-4) @ No.9 Missouri (8-2, 4-2)

Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field

6:30 PM

ESPN

Tess, Jess, Katie

Tigers by 11 1/2

The Missouri Tigers have been nothing short of terrific this season. Eli Drinkwitz and his team have hit their stride this year. They destroyed Tennessee last Saturday at Faurot Field, 36-7, with running back Cody Schrader rushing for 207 yards on 35 carries and a 7. The great Brady Cook was 18-for-24 for 275 yards and another 7. The also great Luther Burden III caught a 7. That trifecta has been sensational this season, and as Drinkwitz said after the game last Saturday, “Our defense kicked their ___.” There is some bad blood between the two schools as UT Coach Josh Huepel has done some obnoxious things to incite the series. Well, Huepel and the Vols are looking incompetent and the Tigers are surging. The Tigers also put a scare into Georgia the week before in Sanford Stadium before succumbing to the Dawgs, 30-21.

Billy Napier and Florida just haven’t figured it out yet. He’s got the fifth ranked recruiting class in the country for 2024 according to 247 Sports, but Napier has his work cut out for him if he wants to retain his job after next season. If he has a poor finish against Missouri and at home versus Florida State, his job may very well be in jeopardy this season, although I don’t think it should be since it’s only his second season along with a stellar recruiting class coming in. But some SEC schools and fan bases are irrational with Florida being right at the top of that list.

MO 31, FL 14

Georgia State (6-4) @ No.15 LSU (7-3)

Tiger Stadium

7 PM

ESPN2

Roy Philpott, Roddy Jones, Taylor McGregor

Bengal Tigers by 31

Jayden Daniels threw for 372 with 3 TDs and rushed for 234 and 2 more TDs last week versus Florida at Tiguh Stadium. That’s 606 yards of total offense. Unreal. The guy has to be in New York December 9th at the Heisman Trophy Presentation (7 PM ESPN). Guys like Michael Pennix Jr., Bo Nix, Marvin Harrison Jr. should also be there. Daniels has to be there even if he doesn’t win it. Jalen Milroe and Carson Beck are making a late run. I’m not ready to coronate anybody as the Heisman winner yet. I would think Pennix Jr is the leader right now with Nix right behind him. But I’m waiting till after Championship weekend before declaring a winner. The voters should do the same.

LSU 52, Georgia State 20

UL Monroe (2-8) @ No. 13 Ole Miss (8-2)

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

11 AM

SEC Network

Taylor, Stinch, Alyssa

Rebs by 37 1/2

I don’t want to hear about Lane as a candidate for the A&M job. That’s a joke. He’s got to worry about getting better at Ole Miss and see if there is some way, any way, he can be competitive with the Crimson Tide and Georgia. People may say you can’t do that at Ole Miss, but Hugh showed that it could be done before his demise there. Is Lane any good? That’s my question. A&M, though dysfunctional and a total disaster right now, can do better than Kiffin if they’re got any sense. And that is debatable. They hireda joke coach and are now paying him $76 million to get lost? Are you kiddin’ me?

Ole Miss 55, LA Monroe 7

Kentucky ((6-4, 3-4) @ South Carolina (4-6, 2-5)

Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia

6:30 PM

SEC Network

Tom, JRodg, Cole

Wildcats by 1 1/2

I like the upset here.

SC 28, KY 27

Abilene-Christian (5-5) @ Texas A&M (6-4)

Kyle Field

11 AM

ESPN+/SEC Network+

Courtney Lyle, Hutson Mason, Ashley Stroehein?

A&M by 41 1/2

Jimbo Fisher took the program down with him. The question is: who will be the next coach? Dan Lanning has completely dismissed the job and I believe him. He’s happy at Oregon. Oregon has a chance to win it all every year with Phil Knight’s finances, the facilities, and Lanning’s recruiting is superb. He’s also making $7M a year with some more chunked in in the near future. Maybe Mike Norvell. Maybe Mike Elko of Duke. Elko has been a dc at A&M and has done a nice job at Duke. Norvell is doing great at FSU. There will be a lot of names circulating and I can’t give you a clear answer because there are a lot of rumors out there that aren’t confirmed, so it’s next to impossible to predict. If Lanning has said unequivocally no, then those two guys would be my next candidates with Norvell being my first choice. Assistant coach Elijah Robinson will coach the team for the rest of the season.

A&M 44, AC 7

Arkansas 42, Florida International 10

Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville

6:30 PM

ESPNU

Hogs by 29 1/2

Sam Pittman’s job is on the brink. Critical game for him at home next Friday, 11/24, versus Missouri at 3 PM on CBS. That’s hard, but not out of the question. It could be too late though even though I really like him.

Mississippi State 30, Southern Miss 10

Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville

11 AM

ESPN+/SEC Net+

Bullies by 14

Another job opening. It was a quick trigger on Zach Arnett, but he didn’t look like the answer. Liberty’s Jamie Chadwell is a clear candidate here. Liberty is undefeated in his first year and he excelled at Coastal Carolina.

National Games

No. 5 Washington (10-0, 7-0 PAC-12) @ No. 11 Oregon State (8-2, 5-2)

Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR.

6:30 PM

ABC

Chris, Kirk, Holly

OR State by 2 1/2

The coaches are a wash. Kalen Debour of Washington and Jonathan Smith are both exceptional coaches. They could be candidates for openings, but they’re both west coast guys; Smith is a former Oregon State player, so they both could be happy where they are. Debour has a great thing going in Seattle. When I look at these tight matchups I look at the head coaches and the quarterbacks. With the coaches even, you’ve got Washington’s quarterback Pennix Jr. versus DJ Uiagalelei. Both are outstanding. The Huskies seem like a team this season that has some magic. A lot of people have them losing this weekend or losing to Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game in Vegas (Allegiant Stadium on Friday Dec. 1st, at 7 PM on ABC). But I think people are undervaluing this team. They’re special. Not ready to predict them defeating Oregon, but I like them to advance out of Corvallis in a slugfest. Pennix Jr is a little better than DJ.

Wash 35, OR State 34

Other scores

No. 3 Michigan 35, Maryland 14

SECU Stadium, College Park

11 AM

FOX

Gus, Joel, Jenny

Michigan by 19

Just read where Harbaugh has accepted his three, now two game suspension. Very noble of you, Jim. Paul Finebaum has been bashed this week for calling Harbaugh the instigator in all of this, not the victim. I agree with Pablo. Harbaugh and Michigan are scumbags, in my opinion.

No. 2 Ohio State 42, Minnesota 10

Ohio Stadium, Columbus

3 PM

Big Ten Network

Buckeyes by 27 1/2

The Buckeyes keep their playoff hopes firmly alive with a trip to Ann Arbor a week from Saturday, 11/25, 11 AM, FOX.

No. 4 Florida State 42, North Alabama 3

Doak Campbell, Tallahassee

5:30 PM

CW Network, Channel 21 in B’ham

Noles by 48

The ‘Noles barely survived Miami last Saturday at home. Can they be overtaken by Washington, Oregon, or the Crimson Tide? My answer to that question is yes, they should be if one or two of those teams take care of business. My football judgment tells me those three teams are all better than FSU. But if they run the table, it’ll be tough to keep them out. Probably won’t happen, which would be a travesty. Still got some work left @Florida (Saturday, 12/2, 6 PM, ESPN) and vs. Louisville in the ACC Championship Game (Sat., 12/2, 7 PM, ABC).

No.6 Oregon 35, Arizona State 10

Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ.

3 PM

FOX

Ducks by 23 1/2

With Dan Lanning, the Ducks immediate and future prospects are radioactively bright. The Ducks definitely keep their playoff hopes alive.

Iowa State 35, No.7 Texas 34

Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA.

7 PM

FOX

Texas by 7 1/2

If you were wondering why I didn’t include Texas in the Alabama, Oregon and Washington discussion for a top 4 spot, well, the Cyclones have taken three out of the last four from the Longhorns and the only one they haven’t won was last year in Austin as a result of two controversial ref calls. I like’em to upset the ‘Horns at home.

Miami 24, Louisville 21

Hard Rock, Miami Gardens

11 AM

ABC

Canes by 1

Canes knock off the ‘Ville at their place.

Clemson 31, North Carolina 24

Memorial Stadium, Clemson

2:30 PM

ESPN

Tigers by 6 1/2

Clemson is now playing good football. Maybe Dabo was right when he said after the Notre Dame game that, “If Clemson is a stock, I’m buying us!” Dabo’s name has been linked to the A&M job. That’s interesting. I could see it. He might be ready for a new challenge and tired of some obnoxious Clemson fans.

USC 48, UCLA 35

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

2:30 PM

ABC

Trojans by 6

It’s been a tough year for Lincoln Riley and a tougher year for Chip Kelly. Kelly will be coaching for his job on Saturday, but I don’t see that as enough.

No. 25 Kansas State 34, Kansas 24

David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS.

6 PM

Fox Sports 1

KSU by 9 1/2

I like the Wildcats to be road warriors on Saturday. They are in the thick of things for the Big 12 Championship Game as they are in a four way tie for second with Oklahoma, OK. State and Iowa State all behind Texas. The scenarios are a little too convoluted to explain right now. A win @ Kansas is crucial. That’s all you need to know right now. I’ll get to the championship races next Wednesday.

No. 24 Tulane 31, Florida Atlantic 21

FAU Stadium, Boca

11 AM

ESPN+

Green Wave by 9

Green Wave keep their New Year’s Six plans intact.