Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England will host the 151st Open Championship in what promises to be an electric major as many storylines have emerged.

The defending champion is Cam Smith, who emerged victorious in 2022 at St. Andrews by edging out Cam Young by one and Rory by 2. Smith shot a final round 64 and put on a putting clinic. It was a putting performance for the ages. The last seven champions before Smith have been: 2021, Collin Morikawa at Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, England in the 149th Open; 2019 (2020 was canceled due to the pandemic). Shane Lowry, at his home country Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, the 148th edition; 2018, Francesco Molinari, at Carnoustie in Scotland. The 147th playing; Jordan Spieth, 2017, at Royal Birkdale in Southport, England. The 146th edition; Henrik Stenson, at Royal Troon in Scotland. The 145th playing; Zach Johnson in 2015, this year’s Ryder Cup captain. The electric competition at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club in Rome, the 44th edition, takes place September 30th-October 2nd . Johnson won at St. Andrews in the 144th edition; Rory won in 2014, at Royal Liverpool, the 143rd playing.

So quite a list of winners. They and a superstar lineup will compete at Hoylake.

Rory was a winner last week at the Genesis Scottish Open and is the favorite at Royal Liverpool, deservingly so. The big question for Rory is: can he putt well enough on Sunday to capture his fifth major and first since 2014. He did last week in Scotland, but this is a totally different arena with the Claret Jug and legacy on the line and a $3 million paycheck, exemption into the Open Championship until you’re 60 and exemptions into the other majors until 2028. So this is another level of pressure. Can Rory, who’s been such a great representative of the PGA Tour through all this turmoil with that obnoxious LIV tour, get over the top and putt well enough to capture the coveted championship. Should be interesting.

There’s been a lot of controversy with the par 3, 136 yard 17th. Many players and other golf pundits have been vocal in their criticism of this hole. I like seeing who’s complaining about it so I can rule them out of my winner’s prediction. Jack Nicklaus always said that when he heard a competitor complaining about the course at a major, he knew he had that guy beaten. I’ll have more on the 17th coming up below.

Another guy who’s had putting problems is Scottie Scheffler. He’s number 1 on the tour in Strokes Gained: off the tee, approach, Strokes Gained: tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Total. But he’s 137th on the tour in Strokes Gained putting, so there is a definite problem with his putting. He’s gotten a little tired of the criticism, but it’s warranted. He sure is a superb player and he won the Waste Management and the Players Championship, and is No.1 in the world. Cam Smith won the Players in 2022 before his Open victory, so that’s another interesting storyline.

The weather is always a factor at the Open and sometimes it’s the course’s only defense. There will be some rain and wind this weekend. More meterological stuff below.

Critical Holes

No.3, 426 yards, Par 4. There is out of bounds throughout the entire hole on the right hand side. It’s a wider driving area on the left side. The green has none of the 81 bunkers on this course, which will be completely penalizing. Driving distance is important as always, but there will be a premium put on driving accuracy.

No.7, 481 yards, par 4. A semi-long par 4 for the pros. There is a lot of brush, and bunkers around the green ready to gobble up mishits on approach shots.

No. 10, 507 yards, par 4. Could be the toughest hole on the course for the championship. Long par 4 with bunkers and thick gorse, or high grass and brush, along the hole. It could be a struggle for par.

No.15, 620, par 5. The longest hole on the course. There are two pot bunkers on the right that the longer players will try to clear. The players who overcook their approaches will find any of the four bunkers on the left hand side of the hole.

No.17, 136 yards, par 3. This is a really interesting hole. It’s an elevated green, so the tee shot is uphill. There is a massive bunker in front that players can hardly see over to the flagstick if they find themselves in it. The bunker on the left side is more doable, but the bunker on the right is no good. A lot of trouble on the right side. A player can win the tournament here or lose it, much like 17 on TPC Sawgrass at the Players.

No.18, 619 yards, par 5. There is “interior” out of bounds throughout the right side of the hole meaning the out of bounds jets out onto the fairway from the right side. Distance is important, but accuracy is critical. This hole along with 17 could spark some serious drama on Sunday.

Power tee times and tees on Thursday. All times Central

2:47 AM, No.1. Sam Burns, certainly capable. Sepp Straka, same for him. Chris Kirk. A veteran who has won this season.

3:03 AM, No.1. Spieth. He’s done well at Opens, but is still a headcase right now. Matt Fitzpatrick. Complained about 17. That would be a negative. Jason Day. Not seeing it.

3:36 AM. No.1. Patrick Cantlay. Certainly due. If his putter is good, he could get over the top. Koepka. Five majors, always a threat. Could very well be in the final pairing on Sunday. Hideki Matsuyama. Another guy whose putter can cost him. Hasn’t done anything great this season, so not seeing it.

3:47 AM, No.1. Scheffler. The numbers are off the charts except for the putting. You’ve got to putt to win. He says his putting is still good. The numbers and the visuals show the opposite. Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman, who will have all the fans on his side, finished tied for 4th last year, so could be a factor. Adam Scott. Great guy, but not seeing this either.

3:58 AM. No.1 1. Cam Smith. Too much time on the LIV Tour, though he’s been playing well out there and LIV players have played well in the Majors. Maybe it’s because he’s a LIV player, I don’t want to pick him, but he’s a threat. Xander Schauffele. Another guy who needs to get over the top in majors. Not seeing this either this weekend. Wyndham Clark. What a chipping and putting display at the U.S. Open. The U.S. champion looks like he’s here to stay.

4:09 AM.No.1 1. Shane Lowry. A factor, the winner of the 2019 Open. Rickie Fowler. Was thinking a little, but not much about him until I heard him interviewed by Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis yesterday in which he said, winning the Open wouldn’t define his success in the tournament. So what’s his definition? He’s not winning. Robert McIntyre. The 26 year old Scot finished second to Rory at the Scottish Open last Sunday. He had a one shot lead over Rory as Rory stood on 17 tee. Rory went birdie-birdie to win it.

4:20 AM. No.1 Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim, DeChambeau. Pretty strong group.

7:04 AM, No.1. Tom Kim, Tom Hoge, Abe Ancer. Another strong group.

7:26 AM. No.1. Sahith Theegala, Emiliano Grillo, Dustin Johnson. Possible out of this group, particularly Dustin.

8:48 AM. No.1 Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Justin Thomas. Some serious heat in this group though JT is not playing great. They all have a shot though.

8:59 AM. No.1. Rory, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose. These are some serious contenders here. Rose is an Englander, and he’s played well this season, so he could do well. The other two will be there on Sunday.

9:10 AM. Colin Morikawa, Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton. This is stellar. There is some must TV watching tomorrow if you can swing it with work.

Weather

Thursday, 62, Partly sunny. Winds NW 13.

Friday, 61, 60% chance of rain showers early with overcast conditions later in the day. Wind WNW 16.

Saturday, 64, 92% chance of rain. Wind SSW 12. You never know if you can trust a forecast there days in advance, but it it holds, this will be the toughest day on the links.

Sunday, 64, light rain, 83% chance. Wind W 12.

A lot of the wind is off the west, so that should really play a factor on the holes. 17 will be brutal.

TV, All times Central

Thursday-Friday, 12:30-3 AM CT, Peacock. 3 AM-2 PM, USA Network. 2-3 PM, Peacock.

Saturday, 4-6 AM, USA, 6 AM-2 PM NBC.

Sunday, 3-6 AM, USA, 6 AM-1 PM NBC.

Winner

They asked this 28 year old stallion what would happen if somebody is streaking on the course on his hole. That would be in protest to Britain’s producing oil. Some are protesting against it. He said, “You know how I am.” He’s tough and he won’t put up with it. That reminds me of way back in the day in 1971, when a drunk fan ran out on the field at a Baltimore Colts game and tried to grab the ball. The late middle linebacker Mike Curtis hammered him with a cross, hand bar shot, and knocked the guy almost out. It was beautiful. Asked about it afterwards, Curtis, who passed away in 2021 at age 77, said, “I don’t like somebody coming onto my place of work.” Loved that and loved this Spaniard’s answer. The great 2023 Masters champion and 2021 U.S, Open Champion at Torrey Pines is ready to win on his home continent soil. Give me the Rahminator.

Jon Rahm

Sleeper

I’ll take the 26 year old from Oban, Scotland, who gave Rory everything he wanted last weekend at the Scottish.

Robert McIntyre