It’s come down to 4 teams competing for the coveted Lombardi Trophy awarded to the Super Bowl 54 Champion to be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami 2 weeks from today, February 2nd, with kickoff at 5:30 PM CT on FOX.

The Cinderella Tennessee Titans invade raucous Arrowhead Stadium to square off with the explosive Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the afternoon matinee, while ARodg and the Green Bay Packers lock horns with the defensive, running game minded San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium In Santa Clara, CA. in the nightcap. ARodg said last week after the Packers 28-23 victory over the Seattle Seahawks that he was going to “drink a Scotch and enjoy the victory.” We’ll see if he’ll enjoy a Scotch after the game tonight on the left coast.

Last week: 2-2

Overall: 3-5

2:05 PM CT today

AFC Championship Game

Tennessee Titans (11-7) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

Arrowhead Stadium, KC (76,416)

CBS

Jim, Tony, Trace, Jay Feely

Whistle: Tony Corrente

Chiefs by 7

Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 35 passes for 321 yards 5 TDs and 0 ints last Sunday in a 51-31 Divisional Round victory over the Houston Texans. After trailing 24-0 in what was looking like a shocking upset, the Chiefs reeled off 41 consecutive points destroying the Texans defense. Their great tight end Travis Kelsey caught 10 passes for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. He looks uncoverable most of the time. They’ve got weapons all over the field and a defense that is 11th in scoring defense giving up 11.6 points per game. So they seem to have it all.

I’ve been thinking Chiefs all week. Still I wanted to look into it further.

I read some extremely enlightening pieces on Derrick Henry and the Chiefs run defense that made me think a lot harder about this prediction.

First by Cynthia Frelund of NFL Network Analytics. She’s an expert at it and you can tell by the way she writes. She noted that Derrick Henry has amassed 729 of his 1,917 regular season and playoff yards when 8 or more defenders are in the box or basically on the line of scrimmage homed in on stopping the run. It’s the most yards earned against stacked boxes by 400 over second place Sony Michel of the Patriots. Henry has 13 rushing TDs against defenses keying on him, 5 more than second place Dalvin Cook (8). Henry averages 5.4 yards per attempt versus stacked boxes, 3rd most in the NFL behind only Raheem Mostert of the 49ers (6.2) and Lamar Jackson (5.9). Against the Chiefs in week 10, Derrick faced a stacked box on only 4 of his rushing attempts, and he earned 75 yards and 2 touchdowns on those plays, one of which was a 68 yard house call, in a 35-32 Titans victory at home. Derrick rushed for 188 yards on 32 carries in that game.

Over the regular season and the playoffs, according to Cynthia, no defense has allowed a higher-per-carry average to opposing running backs when they stack the box than the Chiefs at 4.7 yards per carry. They didn’t fare any better in overall run defense allowing 4.9 yards per carry, fourth most in the NFL. They were the 26th ranked defense out of the 32 NFL teams against the run. So Cynthia’s stats are revealing.

Another column, this one by Mark Inabinett of AL.com, quotes Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark saying of Derrick, “He’s not hard to hit. Honestly, he should be running harder at his weight and his size. I don’t see no difficulty in tackling him.”

Pretty confident statements by Clark. In his last 6 regular season games, Derrick rushed for 896 yards and 10 TDs on 139 carries, 6.7 yards per carry. He won the rushing crown on the final Sunday of the season as he ran for 212 yards against the Houston Texans and finished with 1,540 yards and 16 TDs for 2019. And in the playoffs he’s cranked it up even more rushing for 182 yards on 34 carries and a TD against the No.8 rushing defense and No.1 scoring defense in the NFL, the New England Patriots. Last week he rushed for 195 yards in a 28-12 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, which ranked 7th in the league in rushing defense. KC is 26th.

It’s going to be 19 degrees at kickoff in KC today. 21 at 3 PM, 20 at 4 PM and 18 at 5 PM. As John Madden used to say, it’s “good hittin weather.”

That’s the way Derrick Henry likes it. I picked against the Titans in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds and paid for it. I’m NOT doubting the Titans this time. The Titans pull off a major upset in Arrowhead.

Tennessee 28, Kansas City 24

5:40 PM CT today

NFC Championship Game

Green Bay Packers (14-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA., 68,500

FOX

Joe, Troy, EA, Chris Myers, MIke Pereira (Rules analyst)

Lead Aladdin, John Hussey

Niners by 7 1/2

49ers defensive end Nick Bosa had 9 sackes in the regular season, Arik Armsted posted 10 and DeForest Buckner added 7 1/2. According to Cynthia Frelund again, over the regular season and the playoffs, ARodg had the 4th lowest completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks when under pressure at 37.8%. When under pressure in the regular season and the playoffs, Rodguhs held on to the ball for an average of 3.8 seconds, the longest in the NFL. The 49ers had the 5th best scoring defense in the NFL at 18.8 while the Packers were 9th at 19.8. These are both outstanding defenses, but I like the 49ers defense to get to Rodgers and force him into bad throws, maybe not interceptions, though Richard Sherman may come up with one, but maybe just be off the mark. The 49ers are a very complete team. Jimmy Garapolo and the offense runs the ball well and passes pretty efficiently. Tight end George Kittle is a warrior much like Rob Gronkowski was for the Patriots. And wide receiver Deebo Samuel has become a star. Deebo was a star at South Carolina, and he’s becoming one in the National Football League. The running game is a 3 horse group that can break a defense down with their physicality.

I like ARodg and the Packers to keep it close for most of the game, but I like the 49ers to prevail slightly at the end and win it with their defense and their running game, much like the Titans’ blueprint.

San Francisco 27, Green Bay 24