Shell Houston Open

Golf Club of Houston (Tournament Course); 7,441 yards, par 72

Purse: $6,400,000; Winner’s share: $1,152,000; Fed Ex points: 500

Defending champion: D.A. Points (-16 last year)

Marquee groups: (All times Central):

7:50 AM: Webb Simpson, Phil, Keegan

8 AM: Jimmy Walker, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar

12:40 PM: Dustin Johnson, Rory, Luke Donald

12:50 PM: Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Steve Stricker

TV: Today: Golf Channel: 3-6 PM ET/ 2-5 CT; Friday: Golf: 3-6 PM ET/2-5 CT; Saturday: Golf: 1-3 PM ET/ 12-2 CT; NBC: 3-6 PM Et/2-5 CT’; Sunday: Golf 1-3 PM ET/2-5 Ct; NBC: 3-6 PM ET/2-5 CT

Weather: Little sketchy today and tomorrow: 53 today, 100% T-storms, Wind E-14; Friday: 62, AM rain, wind, 90% chance, Wind, SSW 27; Saturday; 50, 0 % rain, wind WNW 15; Sunday: 59, 0% rain, wind, E 8 MPH.

Key holes:

No.9, 238 Par 3:

Kind of hitting through a shoot of trees with sand on the left and right. If you hit your shot on the short side to the left, it’s a difficult up and down.

No. 11, 440 Par 4

The most demanding driving hole on the course. Water guards the entire right side of the fairway landing area, while a small sand bunker sits on the left at the far end of the driving zone. The large green is protected by water on the right and deep bunkers on the left and backside.

No.15, 609 Par 5

Could be a go for for the bombers, but green guarded by bunkers on the left and right. Could be an interesting decision for guys who can really get it out there. Another large green. Scoring hole.

No.16, 199 Par 3

Exciting par 3 with a high risk-reward on Sunday with the pin on the front right. To go at the pin if you need a birdie, the player will have to clear the deep bunker on the front right side. Birdie opportunity and the guys a shot or two behind may need it. If the wind is swirling, this will make for some pretty good drama on Sunday.

N0.18,488 Par 4

This hole could determine if a guy like Jason Kokrak, who has a shot here, can get in the Masters. I watched J.B. Holmes about six years ago have the lead with the Masters within reach and hit it in the drink to lose a shot at playing at Augusta the next week. The lake borders the entire left side of the hole. A draw is not what you want here, unless you can aim to the far right of the fairway, but there is also a trap on the right side. Players may try to carry the water somewhat and cut it towards the middle of the fairway. The approach leaves little margin for error with water on the left and a big deep bunker on the right. Attacking the back left pin location on Sunday is a risky proposition, but some guys may have to do it if they want to win and they have to have it for Augusta. D. A. Points sank a 13 foot par putt to win here last year. Should be compelling on Sunday.

Contenders:

Graham DaLaet:

He’s extremely long as he is eighth on the tour in driving distance at 304 average. Got an excellent game and he’s been challenging the past two years. It’s going to happen for Graham, the 32 year old Canadian, soon. He’ll be right there with a shot to take the title on Sunday.

Charley Hoffman:

Just a really solid player who always seems to get in the hunt in the non-majors. He’s tied for 16th in driving distance at 300, and I like the bombers on this course. Pretty good putter too. The 37-year old has won twice on the tour, in 2007 at the Bob Hope Desert Classic, and in 2010 at the Deutsche Bank. It’s been a while, but I like Charley to have shot on Sunday. Fun guy too. Looks like he loves playing the game.

Jason Kokrak:

Was really tempted to pick him to win it. He’s long at 305 (ranked fifth) and was right there last year in this tournament before fading a little at the end. Solid young player at 28, will win out here soon. Maybe this weekend.

Andrew Loupe:

Finished second last week at Valero, and I’m a believer in this young 25 year old former LSU player. He’s long at 301 off the tee and has a good short game. He hung tough last week and almost pulled it out. Losing by a couple of shots to Stephen Bowdich, but this guy like DeLaet and Kokrak, has a shot to do well on the tour. This could be his week.

Projected winner:

I’m going with the guy who is second in driving distance on the tour at 309, he leads the tour in greens hit in regulation and he’s 11th in strokes gained putting. He’s already won this season at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions in Shanghai, China and he’s won eight times on tour, and at 29 is ready to make his mark in the majors; and that means winning one very soon, possibly this year. He suffered the heartbreak of the PGA loss in 2010 in which he was penalized two shots for hitting out of an unmarked, trampled down sand area in which he grounded his club at Whistling Straits, and lost out to Martin Kaymer. I thought he handled that penalty with as much class as you can have. He’s done well at Houston finishing tied for fourth last year. With all things being equal amongst these guys, I like the guy with the best putter to get it done. I’ll go with:

Dustin Johnson