Week 4 picks
Record last week: 8-0; Overall 30-11 (73%)
Auburn @No.6 LSU
Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge (92,542)
6:45 PM CT
ESPN
Broadcasters: Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Holly Rowe
Line: LSU by 17
There is an 80% chance of thunderstorms all day and 70% through the night.There may even be another lightning delay, which we’ve had some of this season in both college and the NFL. I wish they could move this game to the Superdome in New Orleans. That would make it more entertaining. There should be some turnovers and not a ton of offense because of the weather. I just don’t know if Nick Marshall can handle the raucous Bengal Tiger crowd he’s going to face tomorrow night. Auburn will need to run the ball, take care of it and use a short, controlled passing game to get some offense going. I really like the way AU has played this year. The defense has been good and Marshall has done a nice job. The backs are doing very well. Corey Grant has been excellent. There were rumors that Grant ran a sub 4.3, 40 when he was at Alabama. He’s gained a lot of size and strength and he gives Auburn a chance to move the chains and also gives the Tigers a chance at a big play. Tre Mason, if he can hold on to the ball, also gives the Tigers an opportunity to keep the chains moving and control the ball. But if LSU stacks the box, which they’ll do, that’ll make it a lot harder on the running game. But I believe in the AU offensive line. Think they’re really going to be good. They’ll need to be tomorrow night. AU will have an easier time stopping the LSU offense– Zach Mettenberger, Jeremy Hill, Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry– in this kind of weather. This should be somewhat of an SEC slugfest. LSU commits a lot of penalties and turns the ball over some, so if AU can stay disciplined on defense and run the ball well, that gives them a chance. I’d love to see the upset for AU fans, and I think it’ll be a good game, but have to go with LSU at home.
LSU 14, AU 10
Colorado State @No.1 Alabama
Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa (101,821)
6 PM CT
ESPN2
“Tess”, Matt Millen, Maria Taylor
Bama 39 1/2
I don’t think S is going to run up the score on former OC Jim McElwain, who left for Colorado State after the 2011 season. The team is coming off a highly emotional victory last week and it’s human nature to not be as charged up the next week against an inferior opponent. S should get a pretty good lead and then start playing some younger guys. The rain will be over with by 6 PM, so there should be some pretty good offense played. The defense needs this work against a pretty decent offensive attack. Deion Belue is battling a turf toe injury and those can be a problem sometimes. I’ve heard they’re very painful. So John Fulton and a committee of guys will man the corner spots. I’d like to see the defensive line make more of a statement this week. Guys like Jeoffrey Pagan, Adrian Hubbard and Ed Stinson need to play some more physical, dominating football on the line of scrimmage. They’re certainly capable. So this’ll be a good test for the defense and a good warm up for next Saturday’s encounter with a high octane offense in Ole Miss (5:30 PM CT, ESPN, Sept. 28th). A.J., T.J., Amari, Kevin Norwood and company need the reps and the offensive line can even strengthen their chemistry more after their impressive performance against A&M. I think the defense is a lot better than it showed against A&M. The corners need to settle in, but A&M is a juggernaut on offense. Manziel and wide receiver Mike Evans would have been unstoppable for anybody last Saturday. So this’ll be some good work for the Tide, though they need to show they can bring it every game. S wants to see that out of them. He likes that consistency in performance. This would be a good game to continue to get better.
Bama 49, Colorado State 14
Vols @ No.19 Gators
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fl. (88,548)
2:30 PM CT
CBS
Verne, Gary and Trace
Gators by 16 1/2
No problem with weather in Gainesville; 88 and sunny. Could be a problem for the players with the heat, but it’s not worse than last week at College Station. I haven’t been able to figure out Florida the last two years. They always play good defense–except against Louisville last year in the Sugar Bowl–but their offense is stagnant. Quarterback Jeff Driskel can be good at times, but at other times he just can’t throw the ball downfield very well. He has accuracy issues. UT got crushed by Oregon last week, 59-14, but Oregon will probably do that to a lot of people this year, though there is no guarantee they are going to be in the national championship game, as they have to go to Washington and go to Stanford with a first year coach who is 39 years old. If they get in a pressure situation at one of those places, it’ll be interesting to see how Coach Mark Helfrich responds Maybe his offense is so good he won’t be tested in the regular season. But I think he will at some point. I’m not sure Oregon’s defense is that great either. They’re OK, but not a dominant group. But back to UT. They looked good against Western Kentucky as they dismantled them, 52-20, and beat a weak Austin Peay team the week before, 45-0. Both of those games were at home. Their offensive line is very good and they can run the ball. Justin Worley has been pretty decent at qb. But I like the Gators defense at the Swamp and their offense to do enough. But Florida really needs some more playmakers on offense if they want to get back to an elite level in the conference.
Gators 28, Vols 17
Arkansas @Rutgers
High Points Solution Stadium, Piscataway, New Jersey (52,454)
2:30 PM CT
ESPN
Bob Wischusen, Rod Gilmore, Quint Kessenich
Rutgers by 1
This is going to be a very interesting game. Both teams have excellent running games, particularly the Hogs– at least depth–wise, who have two outstanding backs. Freshman Alex Collins is awesome having run for three straight 100 yard games . Collins has rushed for 422 yards on 70 carries (6.0 avg) and two TDs. Sophomore Jonathan Williams has rushed for 396 yards on 51 carries (7.7 avg.) and three TDs. Scarlet Knights running back, junior Paul James, has rushed for 493 yards on 61 carries (8.1) and six TDs. He’s fantastic and a game breaker in the open field. But I’ve watched both teams’ defenses and seen their rankings nationally, and Arkansas is better on defense. Arkansas is 6th in the country in total defense, and tied for 13th in scoring defense. Rutgers is 47th in scoring and 47th in total. Both starting quarterbacks are questionable for the game, so the running games will be relied on heavily if they both don’t play. Rutgers lost to Fresno State 52-51 in overtime the first week of the season, but Fresno has a very good offensive team. Both teams haven’t played great competition besides that game, but I watched Arkansas’ defense in action against Southern Miss last week and liked them. Collins was rated a high four-star by Rivals in 2013 and he chose Arkansas over a lot of other big name offers. He’s from Fort Lauderdale. He’s the real deal and Williams is stellar though James is an excellent back too for Rutgers. But I’m going with the Hogs’ defense and a more quality running game in this one.
Hogs, 24, Scarlet Knights 21
Other games:
Georgia 49, North Texas 3
Vanderbilt 41, Massachusetts 7
A&M 52, SMU 21
Indiana 31, Mizzou 28
Mississippi State 35, Troy 28
UAB 42, Northwestern State 21
Stanford 30, Arizona State 28
Open: Ole Miss, South Carolina and Kentucky