(Robert Lester, left, and Kevin Minter, lead their respective defenses)
Alabama leads the nation in red zone defense and it leads the nation in a lot of defensive categories. Opponents have scored touchdowns 40 percent of the time when they get in Alabama’s red zone (4 rush TDs, two pass TDs in 15 opportunities). LSu is 115th in the country, giving up touchdowns 76 percent of the time when opponents are in the red zone (eight rush TDs, 5 pass TDs in 17 opportunities). What’s deceiving about those percentages is the opponents have had 15 chances in the red area against Alabama while opponents have had  17 chances against LSU. While opponents are more successful against LSU in the red area, they get there only two more times than they do against Alabama.

Alabama leads the country in red zone offense scoring  TDs 74 percent of the time in the red area (26 TDs nin 35 attempts; 16 rushing, 10 passing). LSU is at 47 percent (16 TDs in 34 attempts; 14 rushing, two passing). So Alabama’s offense is much more of a sure thing inside the 20.

But the more significant stats in this game are total defense. Alabama leads the nation allowing 203.13 yards per game, while LSU is third at 243.38. In scoring defense, Alabama leads the country at 8.13 points allowed, while LSU is ninth at 14.63. In rush defense, Alabama leads the country giving up approximately 51 yards per game, while LSU is eighth at 95 per. In pass defense, Alabama is first giving up 145 yards per game. LSU is fourth giving up 148.5 per game.

Finally, and maybe the key statistic of the game, Alabama has a +17 turnover margin (14 ints, nine fumble recoveries vs. six turnovers lost). That’s second in the country. LSU is +9 with 13 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries (21) against 12 turnovers lost; good for ninth in the country. Kent State leads the country at +21.

One last stat: Alabama leads the nation in pass efficiency defense with opponents completing 51% of their passes, while LSU is second allowing opponents to complete 51.79% of their passes thrown.

So it should be tough for both teams to move the ball.

On offense, Alabama is 41st in the country in total offense averaging 436 yards per game, while LSU is 74th at 386 per game. The key there is the explosive plays because with the kind of defense that is going to be played, one or two explosive plays along with turnover advantage for one team  could be the difference. Alabama defines explosive plays as runs of 12+ yards and passes of 15+ yards. The Tide has 44 passes of over 15 yards or longer, including 25 of 20 yards or longer by A.J. McCarron. On the ground the Tide has 39 rushes of 12 or more yards. T.J. Yeldon has 16 and Eddie Lacy has 10.

Couldn’t find LSU numbers there, but they are considerably less I imagine. Before the South Carolina game, two games ago, LSU had five explosive plays of 20+ yards. I’ve got them at about two or three more against South Carolina and A&M, so about seven or eight right now.

I’ll look at some of the individual players tomorrow and give you my prediction.