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September 21, 2012

Tiger and the record

Tiger, in my opinion, was the greatest player of all time starting in 2000 and continuing through the U.S. Open in 2008. The scandal rocked his world, shocked the country and also the rest of the world. A perceived hero fell on very hard times. Now he’s fighting to get back to where he once was. The big question is will he catch Jack at 18 majors and can he pass him? Tiger is at 14. He is 36 and will be 37 in December. He noted Jack won the ’86 Masters at the age of 46. Using that math, Tiger will have 40 more chances, beginning at next year’s Masters, to get four, and possibly five more. I’d put his chances at 50 percent right now. If he doesn’t get one next year, that percentage drops to 45, and will continue to decline as the years progress and he’s major-less. He’s not the dominant player he once was. From  200o  all the way to 2008 he was virtually unstoppable. The competition was intimidated by him; scared really. That’s not the case today. Maybe it’s kind of a good thing actually. He’s a nicer guy, and that is a very good thing. He was drug through the mud by the media and many in the public for his highly dishonorable acts to his wife and his children. Some of it was richly deserved; some may have been over the line. It has humbled him and made him a better person. He’s more patient with the media, and nicer to the fans, more respectful of them and appreciative of them. He should be and I’m  liking that about him. That is a very likeable quality. He’s still got a fiercely competitive spirit; it’s just tougher out there than it used to be. With Rory a superstar, guys like Dustin Johnson, Keegan Bradley, Nick Watney, Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, Hunter Mahan and Brandt Snedeker along with the veterans like the always solid Jim Furyk, who leads the tour championship, and despite what some say, should definitely have been a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup, Phil and  Ernie, there’s a deep field out there. There are so many others who can win any given weekend. So it’s definitely tougher sledding for Tiger than it used to be.
In 2000, he was the greatest golfer that ever lived. He kept it up through most of that decade. Can he get it back? That’s a tough question. His swing is not reliable right now and he’s not the same putter he was five, 10 years ago. That may have come with age. The putts that always fell when he was 25 are not falling now that he’s 36.

But it’s still enjoyable to watch him compete. I like the person Tiger Woods has become and is still evolving into. I hope he sees his kids a lot and can provide them with fatherly guidance and support. They need that from him. I’d like to see him win a major next year and make it even more interesting in his chase for Jack’s coveted 18. He plays Augusta so well having won there four times. Next year’s Masters will be the 77th playing of the event. Tiger always has a shot at Augusta. The 113th  U.S. Open is at the famed Merion Golf Club in Pennsylvania, which has hosted United States Opens before.  The 146th Open Championship is at Muirfield next year, and the 95th PGA will be held at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. Certainly some good opportunities for Eldrick Tiger Woods.

He’s still got time. The question is: will he have that drive to reach Jack’s record? I think he still does. He still seems like he cares a lot, and I know he wants that record. He’s an intensely hard worker. He’s still a type A competitor, which is a good thing in many ways. But he’s also humbled, and while some may say that will hold him back, I’d say you know what that’s OK. He can be a nicer guy and still win. There are a lot of nice guys who win; who are intense competitors. The great ones rally back from tough times. Tiger certainly still has greatness. He’s shown it this year with wins at the Arnie Invitational, the Memorial and the AT&T with some brilliant play. Those are courses that he’s owned through the years, but you still have to win’em. That’s not easy by any stretch of the imagination. Still think 50 percent is reasonable for Tiger and Jack’s record. Get a Masters next year and the percentage increases by five to eight percent, maybe even 10. Heck, knowing him he could get more than one. There is a still a lot of greatness left. Thirty six is not old even by golf standards.

What I like most though is his humility. He’s a better person now than he once was. And that is definitely a good thing.

Alabama needs to keep progressing; AU a huge underdog

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix playing lights out
 

S’s “process” will be in the works once again this weekend. Alabama just needs to be the best Alabama it can be this weekend. The line needs to block, the running backs need to keep improving, A.J. and the receivers need a good game and the defense, well can they get any better? They can, but they’re very good right now. The dline can get a better pass rush and they need to keep being as opportunistic as they have been at linebacker and in the secondary. They’re looks like there are at least four or five first rounders on this defense when they come out; maybe more. Arkansas was very impressive. Three new guys who stood out to me were Amari Cooper, Kenyan Drake and Xzavier Dickson. Dickson has been good all fall camp and into this season. He could become a force this year rushing the passer. Looks like he’s on his way at defensive end/outside linebacker. Cooper had a couple of catches last week against the Hogs and looked very impressive in doing it. He’s loaded with talent and will be a productive and explosive player for the Tide. And it looks like he’ll do that this year. Really like Cooper. Drake just plays well every time he gets in there at running back. He needs to get in the rotation now that Jalston Fowler is out for the season. Drake has been coming in the latter part of games, but he’s been so impressive in the carries that he’s gotten, that he may force S and Nuss to play him. Those three to me look like they could add a lot of production to an outstanding football team. Mel Kiper told the Birmingham News yesterday that he thought Alabama was “overrated”, that they hadn’t played anybody. Maybe they haven’t played anybody that great yet–though Arkansas has some good SEC athletes and Michigan has some good athletes– but you can’t argue with the talent on this football team or the results. They’ve faced the challenges in front of them and passed every test so far. There is no doubt this is an excellent football team. Two other guys who were expected to be good and have lived up to expectations and some are Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Vinnie Sunseri. Just stellar safeties for this defense. Dee Milliner has even been better than anticipated and Deion Belue is doing a nice job at corner. The linebackers are so good, but almost under appreciated because of the overall talent on the defense. But C.J. Mosley, Nico Johnson and Trey Depriest, along with Adrian Hubbard, whose more of a hybrid defensive end, are all terrific. Just an excellent, excellent football team. The sky’s the limit for A.J. and the line looks like at least three of them (Chance Warmack, D.J. Fluker and Barrett Jones) will be in the first or early second round. Cyrus Kounadijo has a couple of years left, but he looks like a first rounder when he comes out.

Alabama, LSU and Florida State look elite to me, though Florida State hasn’t played anybody yet this year. Florida State’s quarterback, E.J. Manuel, struggles in big games at times. We’ll see how he does against Clemson tomorrow night. Should be a pretty classic game there if Clemson can just play some defense. Clemson will have Sammy Watkins back so that should make them even more prolific on offense. FSU is better on defense so that should give them the edge. LSU looks extremely strong. Their running game is terrific and quarterback Zach Mettenberger looks like the real deal. Their receivers aren’t great, but they’re serviceable, and will keep getting better. Have a very fine defense even without the Honey Badger. Very good front seven and some fine dbs. If ‘Bama and LSU can get through the next month and a half, Nov.3 promises to be epic in Baton Rouge. Oregon has a lot of speed, and are a very athletic team,  but still don’t think they play enough defense to keep up with ‘Bama, LSU and Florida State. Really like Stanford. They played some power football in defeating USC last week, 21-14. They pound you with some big offensive linemen and running back Stepfan Taylor. Taylor’s terrific. Looks like an NFL back to me. Quarterback Josh Nunes is coming along pretty nicely in place of Andrew Luck. Did a nice job throwing the ball last week after some early struggles. Stanford sacked USC quarterback Matt Barkley four times. It was just total domination by their defensive line. Stanford is for real. And they are really recruiting. This present 2012 freshmen class have quite a few four-stars and three, five-stars. They have got it going in Palo Alto on “The Farm.”

Notre Dame pretty impressive to me, too. Nice win over Michigan State. The interview after the game with linebacker Manti Te’o was powerful. Te’o lost both his girlfriend (to leukemia) and his grandmother last week. It was a very emotional interview after the game with ABC’s Heather Cox. What a class kid and a fantastic football player. So composed yet very emotional after the game. He’s special. Notre Dame is in an important contest with Michigan tomorrow night. Kansas State at Oklahoma in another important national tilt. I kind of like Kansas State to pull off the upset. In the SEC, Mizzou at SC should be interesting. Who knows what to expect from AU this week? It’ll be tough. The two questions to me are: 1. Can Kiehl Frazier become a productive quarterback in the SEC one day? And, 2. Can this defense live up to the potential it should have? If Auburn can make some strides in that direction tomorrow, that would be a boost going forward.

This week’s predictions.

Last week: 11-4. Overall: 29-13 (69%).

Florida Atlantic @ No.1 Alabama

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium

Time: 4 PM CT

TV: Pay Per View; ESPN Game Plan

LIne: ‘Bama 49 1/2

FAU has a pretty decent tailback in Damian Fortner who’s run for 123 yards. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry and a touchdown. Quarterback Graham Wilbert has completed 68% of his passes for 569 yards and four scores, and wide receiver William Dukes has 12 catches for 162 yards (13.5 average). But this is about Alabama’s progress moving forward. You always respect your opponent, which is something S always does. You never overlook anybody. But Georgia beat FAU 56-20 last week, so the Tide is fine here. ‘Bama just needs to be the best it can be, keep the running game going with Eddie, T.J. and maybe Kenyan Drake, and the line and A.J. need to do their jobs. A.J. has really been spreading it out to the receivers. It’s a solid group which could become explosive as the season progresses. Guys like Christion Jones, DeAndrew White and Amari Cooper look like will be big play guys for the Tide. Kevin Norwood is the leader, and is fairly explosive as well and always dependable. See the Tide with a warmup before getting back into the heart of SEC play with Ole Miss at home, then, after a week off, at Missouri, at Tennessee, State at home then a trip to Baton Rouge. This keeps them tuned up for the upcoming SEC wars.

‘Bama 45, Florida Atlantic 3

No.2 LSU @ Auburn

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Pat Dye Field

Game time: 6 PM CT

TV: ESPN

Line: LSU 20 1/2

AU just doesn’t have enough horses here. Kiehl Frazier is just not there. Hopefully, he will get some confidence and live up to his potential at some point this season. He just has to stop making mistakes and also make some plays to help his team have success. The running game will be relied on heavily in this game. Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb will be asked to carry the rock a lot in this game, so they have to produce. The Oline will have to find a way to outphysical a very physical defense. And the AU defense has GOT to get better. The pass defense is 65th in the country out of 124 teams, and the rush defense is in the 100’s. Brian VanGorder’s Atlanta Falcons’ defense last year was 12th in the NFL. He had very fine defenses at Georgia, so you know he’s got the skills to build a good defense. For some reason, these guys aren’t responding. Everybody was blaming Ted Roof last year, but VanGorder hasn’t had any better success. It’s just as bad as last year. Maybe this weekend the defense makes a turn for the better. LSU is running back U. Kenny Hilliard has run for 305 yards (8.2 average) and six TDs. Alfred Blue has rushed for 275 (6.8 average) and 2 TDs. Michael Ford, maybe their fastest running back, is another highly skilled, explosive back. Spencer Ware, who was their starter last year, is now fourth string; and he’s a heckuva football player. They just keep throwing the backs at you. Blue is out for this game with an ankle injury. Zach Mettenberger could be a game manager and still win. But he’s a lot more than that. He’s a pure passer. He’s completed 73 percent of his passes with 2 ints and four TDs. LSU doesn’t need to throw it a lot, but when they do, Metternberger is fantastic, so much better than what they had last year in Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee. It’s going to be a tough day for AU. Can they win? I wish I could give my Auburn readers some hope. There’s always a chance when you’re at home. Kiehl Frazier has to be markedly better, and so does the defense. Auburn has to run the ball well to take pressure off of Frazier and allow him to play action and make plays to some of his talented receivers, Lutz and Emory Blake, who need to get the ball more and Quan Bray and Sammie Coates. You never know, but it’s not likely.

LSU 35, AU 14

Other games:

Missouri @ No.7 South Carolina

TV: 2:30 PM CT on CBS

Line: South Carolina by 10

Could be an interesting matchup here. Mizzou quarterback James Franklin will test the stout Gamecocks defense. SC quarterback Connor Shaw has been beaten up this year. Spurrier keeps throwing him out there though. Don’t know if this kid can make it an entire season with how many licks he’s taking and he’s just not a big guy. Marcus Lattimore should have a good day against the Missouri defense. Like the South Carolina defense and Lattimore to get it done tomorrow. Maybe Lattimore can keep the heat off Shaw, but Spurrier still likes to throw it around a little bit, so Shaw will take some hits.

South Carolina 28, Missouri 20

 

Vandy @Georgia

TV: 6:45 PM CT, ESPN2

Line: Georgia 16 

Vanderbilt plays really hard, but they just don’t have the talent to stack up with the ‘Dawgs. ‘Dawgs look really good and defensive end/linebacker Jarvis Jones is back this week. No word on whether safety Bacarri Rambo or linebacker Alec Ogletree will play. They were supposed to be suspended for four games, but Richt may lift those suspensions because of the bad blood between Georgia and Vandy after last year’s confrontation between defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and Vandy head man James Franklin. That was out of control. The ‘Dawgs are very confident as usual. Vandy scrappy. They  just don’t have enough firepower.

‘Dawgs, 38, Vandy 17

 

Kentucky @ Florida

TV: 11:21 AM CT on SEC Network (Channel 21 in Birmingham)

LIne: Gators by 24

Gators will be playing their second and third string by the latter part of the third quarter. Gators looking very strong this year with an excellent defense and their quarterback, Jeff Driskel, looks highly adept at running the offense. He can pass it pretty well and he’s big and athletic and can really run. Kentucky a disaster. The natives are getting restless in Lexington. Joker Phillips’ tenure as head coach is skating on thin ice. Basketball season can’t get here quickly enough for some Kentuckians if not all of them.

Gators 42, Kentucky 14

Other games:

Ohio State 45, UAB 17

Ole Miss 28, Tulane 10

Mississippi State 31, South Alabama 14

Rutgers 34, Arkansas 31

Texas A&M 48, South Carolina State 0

Tennessee 42, Akron 7

Notre Dame 28, Michigan 24

Kansas State 31, Oklahoma 30

Florida State 35, Clemson 31

Oregon 48, Arizona 35

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