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October 31, 2011

A Saturday for the Ages


 

 

 

 

 

(A.J. McCarron will have to be on the lookout for LSU’S ATUTyrann Mathieu)

The matchup: No.1 LSU (8-0) @ No.2 Alabama (8-0)

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium (101,821)

Time: 7 PM

Network: CBS: Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and the “Wolf.” Always fun when the Wolf and Les Miles get together.

What’s at stake: The winner has the inside track on the national championship

The Teams:

Alabama

Running game:

Trent Richardson leads the Tide rushing game with 989 yards and 17 touchdowns. Eddie Lacy has rushed for 465 and 5 TDs. Jalston Fowler has run for 329 and three TDs.

Passing:

A.J. McCarron 134-200 (67%) 1,664 yards and 10 TDs with 3 ints

Receiving:

Marquis Maze 39-482, 1 TD; Darius Hanks 18-230, 1TD; Trent 18-212,1 TD; Brad Smelley 16-165,1 TD; Kenny Bell 13-167, 1 TD; DeAndrew White 11-130, 2 TDs; Michael Williams 10-152, 2.

Defense:

Dont’a Hightower: 48 tackles, 6 tackles for loss for 22 yards, 1 1/2 sacks

Courtney Upshaw: 11.5 TFL-54 yards, 4.5 sacks

Nico Johnson: 3.5 TFL, 13 yards

Mark Barron: 3.5 TFL, 6 yards

Nick Gentry: 2.5 sacks, 21 yards

DeQuan Menzie: 24 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 14 yards

Interceptions:

Dee Milliner 2-37

Nico Johnson 1, Dont’a 1, Barron, 1, DeQuan,1. Three others with one. 9 total ints.

Returns: Marquis Maze has one punt return for a touchdown of 83 yards against Arkansas, one of the most epic plays of the year in college football. One of the greatest returns I’ve ever seen. Look for Maze to be a factor.

LSU:

Running game:

Spencer Ware, 512 yards rushing 6 TDs; Michael Ford 441 yards rushing 6 TDs; Alfred Blue, 252 yards rushing, 4 TDs; and Kenny Hilliard 85 yards rushing (all against Auburn) 2 TDs.

Passing:

Jarrett Lee: 98-155-1 (63.2%) 13 TDs, 1,250 yards; Jordan Jefferson, 6-10-0 2 TDs

Receiving:

Rueben Randle: 33-638, 7 TDs, 19.3 yards per catch.

Defense:

Safety Brandon Taylor leads LSU with 48 tackles.

Cornerback Tyrann Mathieu: five tackles for loss for 32 yards; two fumble recoveries for touchdowns; 2 interceptions

Defensive end Sam Montgomery seven tackles for loss for 32 yards and four sacks.

Defensive tackle Michael Brockers 6.5 tackles for loss for 13 yards

Defensive end Barkevious Mingo 7.5 TFL for 48 yards; 4 sacks

Cornerback Morris Claiborne has three interceptions to lead the team; one for a 89 yards against Tennessee that set up a TD.

Backup cornerback Ron Brooks has a 28 yard interception return for a TD.

Analysis:

There is a lot to analyze here. Can A.J. McCarron throw the ball against LSU’s NFL secondary? The LSU defense will load up the box with seven or eight people to try and stop Trent, so A.J. will have to make some plays. He’s been terrific the last five weeks but hasn’t faced a secondary this good. Alabama’s offensive line will be tested by a stout LSU front four. Barrett Jones and company will have to play their best to open some holes for Trent and keep the LSU line and linebackers from getting to McCarron. ‘Bama of course will try to run the ball. Trent should get some yards. If he goes for 12o or better and scores a couple of times, Alabama should win. The most amazing stat I’ve seen is LSU’s turnover margin. They are plus 15 on turnovers against their opposition. They have 11 ints and seven fumble recoveries against just one int thrown and two fumbles lost. Alabama is plus six.

The Alabama defense will have to stop the stable of backs that LSU will throw at them and neutralize Jarrett Lee, who has become a fine passer this year. Rueben Randle is a threat on the long ball. He’s an excellent receiver and Alabama has been burned a couple of times deep this year, so they’ll have to be prepared for LSU to take some shots deep downfield. Jordan Jefferson’s running and throwing could play a role, too.

These are two of the best defenses you’ll ever see in college football with two incredibly bright d coordinators in Kirby Smart of Alabama and John Chavis of LSU. Nick Saban may be the brightest of them all in college football, so he will have major influence on this game. Which defense plays better will determine the outcome of this game along with which quarterback can make more plays downfield. Running game for both teams is good. Trent a little better than LSU’s committee of backs. Eddie pretty effective, too.

Another key factor as well will be the special teams play. Marquis Maze could break one in the punt return game as could Morris Claiborne for LSU. If one of those two goes the distance for their respective teams, that could be the difference in the game.

The field goal kickers could be the deciding factors as well. Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster of ‘Bama and Drew Alleman of LSU. Shelley is 11-13 on field goals this year with a long of 37. He’s 6-of-6 from 20-29 yards and four-of-five from 30-39 yards. Cade Foster, the long kicker, is 1-of-3 with the long one 45 yards. Alleman is 10-12 on kicks. He’s 3-3 from 20-29 yards, 3-4 from 30-39 yards and 3-of-3 from 40-49 with a long of 44.

Final thoughts and prediction:

Doesn’t get any better than this. While LSU has played a tougher schedule and may have been more impressive than the Tide this year in performance, I like that home crowd factor and I think Trent can get it going enough, A.J. will do enough, the defense will be able to handle LSU’s running game, which is good not great, and keep Lee and Randle under control. LSU may hit a couple of big plays, but the defense for ‘Bama should do well. I look for Maze to make a big play on returns, most likely a punt return.

This is a tough call, but going with the Tide to get by the Bengal Tigers and move closer to an SEC title. While there will be three games left for both teams and no guarantees after this, Alabama would be in the driver’s seat. But if it’s close, which it should be, and both teams win out., there’s a possible chance at a rematch for the national title given the two teams take care of business the rest of the way. Going with Tide to get it done in an intense, highly physical war. A Jeremy Shelley field goal wins it late.

‘Bama 23, LSU 20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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