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October 14, 2011

‘Bama needs to keep churning it out; AU with a tough test

‘Bama needs to be focused from the start and AU needs to somehow find a way to pass the football and control Florida’s speed. The AU defense has played better even though Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson completed 19 straight passes against them. I know that doesn’t sound good, but they look like they’re getting better. They’ve got to keep improving and need to put pressure on Florida’s young quarterbacks this week. That AU defensive line is impressive looking, they’ve just got to get better at stopping the run and getting pressure on the quarterback. Here’s a look at this week’s games:
Last week: 5-2; Overall: 42-17

No.2 Alabama (6-0) @ Ole Miss (2-3); 5 PM CT. ESPN2

Alabama’s defensive play has been well documented, but here are some numbers that help explain their performance this year further. The Tide is number one in the country in rush defense allowing 39.83 yards per game. They are fourth in the country in pass defense at 151 per game. And they are third in the country in total defense giving up 191 yards per game. The two teams ahead of them in total defense, Michigan State and Central Florida, have not played the level of competition Alabama has, so really, this is the best defense in the country outside of LSU. When the two teams collide on Nov.5, the best defense will be decided. In the meantime, both teams need to focus on their games at hand. This week for ‘Bama it’s Ole Miss. Houston Nutt had to suspend four players for this game, one of them being Brandon Bolden, their top running back. Nutt can’t catch a break. S is highly complimentary of what Nutt can do offensively. I do think Nutt is a good offensive coach. But he’ll struggle tomorrow. His quarterback play has been very inconsistent.

On the other side of the ball for ‘Bama, they are 73rd in the country in total offense. I’m sure S would like to see those numbers elevated though A.J. McCarron has played very well since the Penn State game. He’s completed 65% of his passes (98-150) with eight TDs and two ints. He’s been outstanding. He’s been a lot more than just a game manager. I’m surprised to be honest. I thought he might struggle. But with Marquis Maze and now with the emergence of DeAndrew White and the play of tight ends Michael Williams and Brad Smelley, the Tide has a pretty good passing game. Darius Hanks needs to keep getting back to his form from last year and the year before. They need him to perform to give them another weapon out wide. Maze has been tremendous. He is an All-SEC player and possibly an All-American. Trent has run for 729 yards on 115 carries with 11 TDSs. He’s averaging 121 yards per game. Eddie Lacy has added 396 with an 8.6 yard per carry average and five tds. Eddie is expected to be back from his turf toe injury.

C.J. Mosley is expected to play tomorrow. Ole Miss will rely on either Randall Mackey at quarterback. He was eight of 18 for 214 yards and a TD against Fresno State in Ole Miss’s 38-28 victory two weeks ago at Fresno. Boise State blew out Fresno and this is no Fresno State tomorrow Ole Miss is playing tomorrow. Jeff Scott ran for 138 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago at Fresno and he’s a pretty good back, but he’s kind of like Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps in that he’s small in stature.

There’s just too much talent out there for the Tide. That’s a pretty trite statement, but that’s the story. This is a mismatch. S would like to see his team get off to a better start than they did against Vandy. He’d  like to see his team play better this week.

‘Bama 35, Ole Miss 3

 

Florida (4-2) @ No.24 Auburn (4-2); 6 PM, ESPN

AU back on ESPN hoping to get better results. Need to throw the ball better to give Michael Dyer a break and loosen up the defense for him. Barrett Trotter is not totally at fault for last week. DeAngelo Benton dropped three balls and there were some other drops. I’ve got a friend who commented that Trotter throws too hard a ball. It’s too fast and hard to catch. Could be some truth to that. Kiehl Frazier should see more and more action as the season progresses and he needs to get better throwing the ball. He threw it tentatively against Arkansas last week and paid the price with two interceptions. He’s a terrific runner, but has to get better throwing the ball if he wants to be the man this year and in the future. With Emory Blake doubtful, that puts more pressure on guys like Benton, Travante Stallworth and Quindarius Carr. Lutz needs to be a big part of the passing game. They need him to be a factor. I like freshman Tre Mason. Those rocket sweeps work with him. They need to use him in the offense more. There hasn’t been much talk about Onterio McCalebb this season, but he’s having a decent year with 312 yards and averaging 5.6 a carry. But he hasn’t gotten into the end zone. It would help if he broke a long one. Dyer has 679 on the year and eight TDs. He just needs some help.

The defense is getting better though Wilson had his way for a while last Saturday. He’s become a great quarterback though. To me, it’s the defensive line that has to improve. They need to disrupt more at the line of scrimmage and they need to put more pressure on the quarterback. With Florida starting one of their true freshmen this week, Jeff Driskel or Jacoby Brissett, at quarterback, they could have trouble moving the ball through the air. Chris Rainey and now Mike Gillislee are good backs.  Just not sure where Jeff Demps stands with his injury. Think he’s questionable, but may play. Rainey can break it any time and Gillislee gives them more of a power game at 205 pounds. So the Auburn defense will be tested. Driskel and Brissett both have talent, particularly Driskel, but I think Auburn is going to do enough to pull this game out. I look for more a lower scoring game in this one with the home field advantage pushing AU over the top.

Auburn 17, UF 14

 

No.15 South Carolina (5-1) @Mississippi State (3-3)

Both teams need this game badly, particularly South Carolina, as they are in a horse race with Georgia and possibly Florida for the Eastern Division title. Connor Shaw played well last week, but I’m not sold on him yet. He was 26-0f-39 for 311 yards and four touchdowns. But it was Kentucky. That’s not a great gauge on how good you are. This week, State will be charged up to knock the Gamecocks off and I think they’re going to give SC all they want. Dan Mullen looks like he’ll go with Tyler Russell, who played well last week against UAB in relief of Chris Relf. I like Russell; he’s a pretty good quarterback. But the Gamecock defense is playing pretty well right now. Melvin Ingram is awesome. He’s a game changer. Jadeveon Clowney has four sacks and Ingram has five and a half. They are excellent. Marcus Lattimore should play pretty well though he’s not been as good the last three games against Vandy, Auburn and even Kentucky. Not sure what’s going on with him, but he’ll probably be better tomorrow. Shaw can throw it up to Alshon Jeffery and let him make plays. With Lattimore carrying the ball and Jeffery having opportunities to catch the ball, they’ve got a pretty good shot against State. I think this will be a competitive game. Shaw won’t be as good, but his two teammates on offense, Lattimore and Jeffery, and a pretty good defense will push SC over the top. This was kind of a tough one, but think SC will get’er done.

South Carolina 28, State 24

 

No.1 LSU (6-0) @ Tennessee (3-2); 2:30 PM, CBS

Like LSU to keep on truckin’ in this one. Tennessee’s Tyler Bray looks to be out for the season, so senior Matt Simms takes over at quarterback tomorrow. LSU just too good on defense. Tauren Poole, UT’s top rb, is questionable for the game, and even if he plays he won’t be at full strength. The interesting part will be to see what Miles does with Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson. Look for Jefferson to play more; that’s my feeling. Miles might mess this up in the long run. Or he might get lucky like he has been since he’s been at LSU. This may work out, but I think it could cost Miles with Lee looking over his shoulder when he makes a mistake. It just puts Lee in a bad position, but then again, that’s competition. It may be costly for LSU against Alabama. We’ll see how things progress tomorrow.

LSU 31, UT 10

 

Georgia(4-2) @ Vandy (3-2); 6 PM Fox Sports South

‘Dawgs got it going. Isaiah Crowell is the real deal at running back. He’s run for 573 and four TDs, averaging 95 yards per game. His longest run is 29 yards, so Bulldog fans are hoping for some longer, take it to the house runs from Crowell. That should happen soon; quite possibly tomorrow. Even though Aaron Murray is not playing to last year’s standards yet, he’s still a very good quarterback and done pretty well. He has thrown for 13 TDs against six ints. Leading receiver Malcolm Mitchell is out, but Orson Charles, Tavarres King and Michael Bennett should play big roles. The defense for Georgia has come on. Linebacker Michael Gilliard has 40 tackles and LB Jarvis Jones has 4 sacks.Nose tackle Kwame Geathers, at 6’6″, 35o, can clog up the middle. Vandy may have trouble running the ball once again.

Vandy quarterback Larry Smith is probable for the game. He was doing pretty decently against Alabama last week until he made a mistake on third and one and ran right into ‘Bama nose tackle Josh Champman who buried him and hurt his ankle. But Smith will probably start. A lot of Vandy fans are hopeful that if Smith falters early, James Franklin will pull him for Jordan Rodgers. Rodgers just looks better out there, with a better command of the offense and a calmer presence and playmaking ability. The Vandy defense can intercept the ball; Casey Hayward leads the team and is tied for the SEC lead at four. But they need to get pressure on Murray. I think Vandy, if they can get decent quarterback play, can make this a good game. Franklin can’t be patient with Smith because when he starts going south, he doesn’t seem to recover. Rodgers will need to get in the game if Smith struggles. Georgia has a chance to win the East if they keep playing well and South Carolina stumbles, which they very well could. The Gamecocks have a road game at Arkansas in a couple of weeks, so that’ll be tough and if ‘Dawgs take care of business they could win the East. Georgia will take care of business tomorrow in Nashville.

‘Dawgs 28, Vandy 14

Kentucky off. vs Jacksonville State, 10/22

Arkansas off. @ Ole Miss, 10/22

 

UAB (0-5) @ Tulsa (2-3); 7 PM, CBS College Sports

Blazers and Neil Calloway have to start winning. Calloway trying to save his job and it’s getting pretty precarious for him right now. Thought Blazers had a shot with Ms. State last week, but costly turnovers that have plagued UAB teams throughout the years under Watson Brown and Calloway, prevented the Blazers from possibly winning. Bryan Ellis is a game time decision. He would help, but I like what I’ve seen for the most part out of Jonathan Perry at quarterback. Either way, Blazers can move the ball. Tulsa lost to Boise State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State by large margins, but those are three of the top six teams in the country. The teams’ one common opponent has been Tulane, which Tulsa defeated, 41-3. Tulane blasted UAB, 49-10. I wish I could pick the Blazers–always want to–but it’s at Tulsa and Tulsa is a pretty decent team. UAB will fight like they always do, but it won’t be enough.

Tulsa 44, UAB 17

Other games:

No.11 Michigan (6-0) @ No.23 Michigan State (4-1); 11 AM, ESPN

Michigan’s Denard Robinson is just too good for Mich. State defense, which is ranked No.1 in total defense, but the only test they’ve had was against Notre Dame and they lost that game, 31-13. Denard has thrown for 10 TDs and nine Ints, but has run for 720 yards and eight TDs. I say he does it again.

Michigan 35, MSU 28

 

No. 6 Oklahoma State (5-0) @ No.22 Texas (4-1); 2:30, ABC

Too much Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon for Texas to handle. Texas got wiped out by a veteran, talented OU team last week. Texas too young this year to be a serious contender in the Big 12 and nationally. Will see more of the same this week that they saw last week.

Ok. State 42, Texas 28

(A.J. McCarron needs to keep the momentum going.)

 

 

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