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September 30, 2011

Blockbuster in Swamp headlines some big games this Saturday

Some stellar matchups tomorrow. The question in the ‘Bama-Florida game is: who can be better throwing the ball in case the running game isn’t going so well, A.J. McCarron or John Brantley. Auburn starts a brutal October facing the South Carolina Gamecocks, who really aren’t that great, but still a challenge for the defensively challenged Tigers. Here’s a look at those two games with predictions along with previews of other SEC games and some major national implication games in the ACC and Big 10.
(Last week: 6-3; Overall: 31-12)

No.3 Alabama @No.12 Florida; 7 PM, CBS

Alabama will work its power running game. Florida will try to outrun the ‘Bama defense. Alabama’s defense is better than Florida’s. Can the ‘Bama defense slow down Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps, a couple of the fastest guys in the country if not the world? I think the Tide has enough speed on defense to do that. They’re pretty fast, too. Tide needs to make John Brantley have to beat them down the field in the passing game. DeQuan Menzie, Dre Kirkpatrick, Mark Barron and Robert Lester are up to that challenge after shutting down the Arkansas passing game last week. Rainey and Demps are not big at all, so they could take a pounding. Haven’t seen much out of Charlie Weis’ s passing game to know if it’s any good. On the flip side, Florida will probably load up to stop Trent and Eddie, so A.J. McCarron may be called on to throw the ball down field some, too. Still think Trent will get his yards and possibly break an explosive play or two; if not in the running game the passing game on some short screens. Darius Hanks and Marquis Maze should be ready to step up. McCarron just needs to get them the ball. But the Tide may not need it if Trent and Eddie can get it done on the ground. Florida is decent on defense, not great. Will Muschamp is an excellent defensive coach, so he’ll have some pretty complex schemes ready for Jim McElwain and his offense. I look for Maze to do something again on a punt return. That punt return last week for 80 yards was the best punt return I’ve ever seen in my life. He’s special.

In the end, Alabama should be fine on offense. If McCarron has to make some throws he should be OK with that if he gets time. I think Trent and Maze should make some big plays again. Defense is just too good and will administer a pounding on Demps and Rainey. There probably will be a spy or two out there with Hightower on Rainey or Nico Johnson on Demps; something like that. Alabama will most likely be missing C.J. Mosley, and that hurts. But there is good depth at linebacker. Mosley is an excellent player and S uses him in all of his defensive packages, so guys like Jerrell Harris, Trey DePriest, Adrian Hubbard and Alex Watkins will have to play well. Like the Tide to be good on offense and power over the Gators’ defense in the end. The defense is outstanding and if they can stop Rainey and Demps eliminating their explosive plays, Tide’ll be fine.

Alabama 24, Florida 17

 

Auburn @No.10 South Carolina; 2:30 PM, CBS

AU is struggling, somewhat on offense and definitely on defense. They were a little bit better last week although it was Florida Atlantic, and even FAU gained over 300 yards of offense on Auburn. FAU had only scored three points before the Tigers game all year. They scored 14 on AU. Auburn did have three ints last week and freshman Jermaine Whitehead returned one for a TD. Still, the defense is just not there yet. There’s youth and something is not working. They couldn’t understand the schemes and that’s why Chiz and Ted Roof simplified things. But South Carolina has two big time weapons in Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffery and though Stephen Garcia has been bad this year, he is capable some games of making some big plays in the passing game. The South Carolina defense is decent. Melvin Ingram and freshman Jadeveon Clowney are excellent defensive ends. They’ve got some other pretty good players. They played well against Vandy last week, but that’s not saying much. Vandy and Qb Larry Smith are awful on offense.

I just don’t see Auburn doing enough to beat SC. I say it every week, but it’s true: Lattimore and Jeffery will make some big plays. Garcia needs to get Jeffery the ball. He’s an NFL player and probably a high draft pick next April. Lattimore may be the number one pick in 2013. Auburn just not strong enough on defense and I don’t think Michael Dyer can do enough to offset the defense. Barrett Trotter has Phillip Lutzenkirchen back and that helps. If he can get the ball down field to Lutz and Emory Blake, Auburn could move the football with Dyer’s running mixed in. But it won’t be enough. Like Auburn to be competitive, but too much Lattimore will wear them out.

SC 28, Auburn 21

No.14 Texas A&M vs. No. 18 Arkansas (at Jerryville in Arlington, Tx); 11 AM, ESPN

See Arkansas rebounding here though Aggies a pretty good football team and are favored by 2 1/2. Arkansas was manhandled by the Tide last week, but can score points on Aggies’ defense. Can Arkansas stop the Aggies though? This should be a track meet between a couple of high powered offenses and not very good defenses. Like ‘Hogs to prevail.

Arkansas 31, A&M 27

 

Mississippi State @Georgia; 11 AM, ESPN3 and ESPN Game Plan

What looked like such a promising season for State has gone south quickly. Injuries to the offensive line have been a factor. Defense hasn’t been very good either. When I saw the State offense in their spring game, I thought this team could be something special. Turns out they were running against a Swiss Cheese defense which made them look a lot better. The ‘Dawgs on the other hand are on an upward trend. Isaiah Crowell is excellent. Crowell has more yards as a freshman than Herschel Walker did at this point (four games). He’s not Herschel yet, but he’s a pretty darn good tailback. Aaron Murray is a very solid SEC quarterback and sometimes spectacular. Found some pretty good wide outs to throw to now. Like Crowell and Murray to get it done between the Hedges.

‘Dawgs 35, State 27

 

Kentucky @LSU; 11:21 AM, SEC Network

LSU shouldn’t have a problem with this game as long as they’re humble going in. LSU gets overconfident at times and struggles because of it. Les Miles reinstated Jordan Jefferson to the team after his charges were downgraded to a misdemeanor. He’s probably going to get off those charges, too. That’s really a questionable decision by Miles. I think a poor decision.  Not only is this bad policy to let a player back on the team who committed assault and battery and helped put four guys in the hospital–that’s really pathetic– but it’s also bad for team chemistry. Jarrett Lee has done a stellar job as quarterback, and, as long as he plays like this, should be firmly entrenched as the starter. Miles shows no personal character in this situation. But, whatever. These players seem to get a lot of chances these days. It seems like one or even two offenses are free passes; at least in some programs. Don’t think Saban would allow this. Chiz kicked off four players immediately. Maybe Jefferson can help them, but I think he could also hurt them. I’m sure the players like him, but he could be a detriment. Miles shows it’s all about winning and character doesn’t matter. That’s pretty sad. Anyway, like LSU to win pretty handily. Kentucky is pretty bad.

LSU 42, Ky 14

 

Buffalo @Tennessee; 11:30 AM, ESPN3 and Game Plan

Not much to talk about here. UT should be fine as they tune up for a visit by ‘Dawgs next week in an SEC East showdown at 6 PM on one of the ESPN Networks.

Vols 42, Buffalo 10

 

Ole Miss @Fresno State; 8:15 PM, ESPN2

Houston Nutt about to fall off the cliff in Oxford. He’s just not getting done. Defense not very good and quarterback situation is terrible. Fresno a pretty good team that can score some points. Like Ole Miss to go to 1-4 this week.

Fresno State 45, Ole Miss 28

 

National headliners:

 

No.13 Clemson @ No.11 Virginia Tech; 5 PM, ESPN2

Clemson on fire right now. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is the most exciting player in college football. This kid is just a freshman and he’s lightning fast–looks as fast as Rainey and Demps-and catches everything. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is playing at a very high level with a lot of confidence. Clemson defense is decent, not great. But the Hokies have another solid team with a great running back in David Wilson and another solid back in Josh Oglesby. Quarterback Logan Thomas, a redshirt sophomore, has a cannon and looks like he could be outstanding. Danny Coate is an excellent possession receiver and and D.J. Coates is their big play guy. Jayron Hosley is their playmaker in the secondary and an explosive player on punt returns. Like Va Tech at Lane Stadium to get it done barely. Clemson has been very impressive this year.

Hokies 28, Clemson 27

 

No.8 Nebraska @ No.7 Wisconsin; 7 PM, ABC

Huge national championship implications although it’s early and a lot can change. Nebraska has a good running game with running back Rex Burkhead and qb Taylor Martinez. Their defense, usually a strength of the team under Bo Pelini, has been shaky. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson will be tested this week. I like the guy a lot and I think he can have a great season. He’s been great so far albeit against weak competition. Running backs Monte Ball and James White are outstanding and wide receiver Nick Toon is phenomenal. Defense is good enough. Don’t think they’re a national championship defense, but they’re OK. Offensive line big and strong again. Should be a nice matchup. Like the Badgers to get it done at Camp Randall.

Badgers 28, ‘Huskers 24

(Dont’a Hightower needs to be all over the field on Saturday Night.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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