At Royal St. George’s Golf Club in Sandwich England. Weather looks good on Thursday and Friday with partly cloudy skies and winds at 10 and 11 respectively. Saturday there is a 60 percent chance of rain with 15 mph winds and Sunday there is a 40 percent chance of light rain with winds at 14.
You’ve got to handle the conditions more than anything. Looked back at the stats from the winners since 2003 and scrambling has been at a premium. All of the players except Stewart Cink in 2009 finished in the top 11 of scrambling. Also not making bogey or worse is critical. Birdies, of course, are dandy as the Brits would say.

Course is 7,106 yards with quite a few bunkers in the fairways and guarding the greens. The fourth is a good birdie hole at 497 yards, a par five. The seventh is another par-5, 532 yards. The third is a 210, par-3. The 11th is brutal; a 242, par-3. The 18th is difficult finishing hole, a 460-yard par-4.

It’s all about the wind and Saturday and Sunday should be the challenging days. The pros can go low on Thursday and Friday, get it to about nine under and then try to survive the final two rounds. I would guestimate that 11 or 12 under will win it, with a plus-minus of four shots either way.

Here are 5 guys who I think can win the Open:

1.Rory McIlroy: Of course. He just lapped the field at Congressional in the U.S. Open and is the best talent out there right now. Has transcendent talent. Has the swing and the game to win many majors if he can stay humble and work hard. He hasn’t played a competitive round since the U.S. Open so that’s concerning. Certainly has the game and knows links golf very well. He’s my overall favorite.

2. Luuuuuke Donald: No.1 player in the world and fresh off a win at the Scottish Open. Tremendous manager of his game and exceptional putter. Also won the BMW PGA Championship at Surrey, England and the WGC-Accenture Match Play in February in Arizona. Finished fourth at Augusta with a strong finish at the end chipping in on the 18th for birdie. I can see him right there at the end. An England native, probably knows this course in his sleep. He’ll be right there at the end and can win this thing.

3.Lee Westwood: No.2 in the world. Just ready to win a Major. Has all the tools. Has won on the European tour in South Korea this season. Has been in the hunt in several majors including at least two British. He’s another great putter. If he’s hitting the ball well off the tee, he’s got a shot.

4. Steve Stricker: Fresh off a riveting win at the John Deere Classic. This guy is so competitive on the tour in the U.S. and is a very fine ball striker and excellent putter. He’ll be right in there.

5.Ian Poulter: Another Englishman who could win this tournament. Like the home turf factor for this guy. Won at the Volvo in Spain in May and is always in the hunt on the PGA Tour. It’s his time to step up and get one. Like his chances in his home country. An excellent all around player.

Other guys with a shot:

1. Angel Cabrera: Winner of two majors (‘O7 U.S., ’09 Masters). Great driver of the ball; hits it 310 or better many times. Great short game, particularly putting. I like his experience in the winners’ circle at majors. The Argentinian can win it.

2.K.J. Choi: Always have an Asian in here and K.J. is the best Asian player right now. Great ball striker and very fine putter. Won the fifth major, the Players, in May, and handled  those conditions which were windy, so should be good to go at Royal St. George’s. Like his game a lot and his mental toughness.

3. Nick Watney: Great player. Won twice on the tour this year; at Doral in the World Golf Championships and at the AT&T National two weeks ago. Very fine player who is ready to make his mark in the majors. See it happening pretty soon, maybe this week.

4.Charl Schwartzel: The way this guy played at Augusta was incredible. Just showed mental toughness that you’ve seen out of Tiger and Nicklaus when he dominated. Guy is a terrific putter. Won the Joburg Open in South Africa, his home country, back in January. South African courses are windy, so  think he’ll be able to handle this course. Give him a shot at winning this.

5.Fredrik Jacobson: Got to go with another European player because this is their home territory. Jacobson won the Travelers three weeks ago in Connecticut, so he’s had success this season. Seems like a very solid player. Swede, so very familiar with  the Links golf. Should be in the hunt.

Other players with chances:

Alavaro Quiros, Matt Kuchar and Ryo Ishikawa. Quiros won in Dubai earlier this year, Kuchar is a solid American player and another guy who looks like he’s primed for a major at some point and Ishikawa is the ultra talented Japanese player who has the tools to win multiple majors.

Like Rory’S ( pictured left) and Luke’s chances.